<p>在过去五年中，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 1.00%) 的总回报率达到了 92%（截至 1 月 14 日）。这是一个超过历史平均水平的惊人收益。</p>
<p>强劲的市场背景进一步提升了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.75%) 的表现。自 2020 年 1 月中旬以来，这家科技巨头的股票价格已经翻了三倍以上，包括股息。</p>
<p>该业务在全球范围内继续占据主导地位。但这只消费品股票在五年后会处于何种位置呢？</p>
<h2>硬件的重要性</h2>
<p>苹果以销售受欢迎的硬件设备而闻名。尽管 iPhone 已经进入第 16 代，但今天仍占整体销售的约一半，依然是推动财务表现的核心产品。然而，公司也开发了 MacBook、iPad、AirPods 和 Watch，并取得了巨大的成功。</p>
<p>五年前的 2019 财年，苹果 82% 的总收入来自于产品。这并不一定是坏事，因为全球消费者对这些设备的喜爱与日俱增。这正是根据咨询公司 Interbrand 的说法，使苹果成为最有价值的品牌。</p>
<p>这也支持了定价能力。想想看，人们愿意为一部智能手机支付四位数的金额，这真是不可思议。苹果单枪匹马地重新定义了这一类别，并继续以巨额利润收获回报。</p>
<h2>商业模式的转变</h2>
<p>但苹果的商业模式正在转型。在 2024 财年，75% 的总收入来自于产品，其余来自于服务。然而，后者的金额为 960 亿美元，比五年前增长了 108%，增速远快于产品。这一部分包含了多种盈利活动，包括 iCloud、广告、AppleCare、App Store、Apple TV+、Apple Fitness+、Apple Music、Apple Arcade、Apple Pay 和 Apple Card。</p>
<p>看到公司如此发展令人鼓舞。毕竟，苹果的服务与产品结合在一起，构成了强大的生态系统。这增强了客户忠诚度，并随着时间的推移创造了更大的经常性收入流。</p>
<p>投资者曾担心苹果会在人工智能（AI）竞赛中落后。但该公司终于在去年底推出了 Apple Intelligence，一套与 AI 相关的功能。归根结底，这一举措能否推动更多产品销售仍然至关重要。这最终导致这些设备订阅苹果的服务。</p>
<p>我认为可以合理地假设，随着时间的推移，服务和软件将对苹果的财务成功变得更加重要，这一趋势将持续下去。这是件好事，因为该部门的毛利率超过 70%。</p>
<h2>苹果的回报潜力</h2>
<p>在过去五年中，苹果的股票价格上涨了近 200%。这一增长得益于 2019 财年到 2024 财年间每股收益（EPS）的显著提高。</p>
<p>然而，投资者必须意识到估值也变得更加昂贵。当前苹果的市盈率（P/E）为 38.4。五年前，即 2020 年 1 月中旬，市盈率为 25。这 54% 的扩张表明市场对该业务的情绪正在改善。在过去十年中，当前的市盈率实际上很少如此昂贵。</p>
<p>得益于其极受欢迎的产品和服务，苹果拥有强大的品牌。而其产生自由现金流的能力令人钦佩。</p>
<p>但考虑到 2024 财年的销售额为 3910 亿美元，很难相信未来会有超常增长，尤其是 iPhone 正变得越来越成熟，消费者可能不会那么频繁地感到需要升级到新型号。</p>
<p>华尔街共识分析师预计，未来三年每股收益将以 11.4% 的年化速度增长。假设这一增长在预测期之后继续，结合市盈率收缩至 30 的可能性（仍然高于市场），预计股价在现在到 2030 年初之间仅增长 34%。</p>
<p>因此，除非估值大幅下降，否则苹果在未来五年内产生强劲回报的可能性不大。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票在过去五年中上涨了近 200%，这得益于强劲的盈利和向服务业务的转型，后者现在占收入的 25%。尽管由于 iPhone 市场的成熟，增长潜力受到担忧，但分析师预计未来三年的年每股收益增长率为 11.4%。然而，目前的市盈率为 38.4，若收缩至 30，可能会将到 2030 年的股票价格增长限制在 34%，这表明未来的回报将温和，除非估值显著下降</p>

<p>In the past five years, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 1.00%) has generated a total return of 92% (as of Jan. 14). That's a fantastic gain that's above the historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 1.00%) 的总回报率达到了 92%（截至 1 月 14 日）。这是一个超过历史平均水平的惊人收益。</p>
</div><p>A strong market backdrop has lifted <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.75%) even further. The tech giant's shares would have more than tripled your money since the middle of January 2020, including dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>强劲的市场背景进一步提升了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.75%) 的表现。自 2020 年 1 月中旬以来，这家科技巨头的股票价格已经翻了三倍以上，包括股息。</p>
</div><p>The business continues to be a dominant force across the globe. But where will this consumer discretionary stock be five years from now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该业务在全球范围内继续占据主导地位。但这只消费品股票在五年后会处于何种位置呢？</p>
</div><h2>Hardware is important</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>硬件的重要性</h2>
</div><p>Apple is known for selling popular hardware devices. The iPhone, which today represents about half of overall sales, even though it's a product in its 16th iteration, still essentially drives financial performance. However, the company has also developed and found smashing success with the MacBook, iPad, AirPods, and Watch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果以销售受欢迎的硬件设备而闻名。尽管 iPhone 已经进入第 16 代，但今天仍占整体销售的约一半，依然是推动财务表现的核心产品。然而，公司也开发了 MacBook、iPad、AirPods 和 Watch，并取得了巨大的成功。</p>
</div><p>Five years ago in fiscal 2019, 82% of Apple's total revenue came strictly from products. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as consumers all over the world have grown an affinity to these devices. That's precisely what has made Apple the most valuable brand, according to consultancy Interbrand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年前的 2019 财年，苹果 82% 的总收入来自于产品。这并不一定是坏事，因为全球消费者对这些设备的喜爱与日俱增。这正是根据咨询公司 Interbrand 的说法，使苹果成为最有价值的品牌。</p>
</div><p>And it has supported pricing power. It's crazy to think that people will pay a four-figure sum for a smartphone. Apple has single-handedly redefined the category, and it continues to reap the rewards in the form of massive profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也支持了定价能力。想想看，人们愿意为一部智能手机支付四位数的金额，这真是不可思议。苹果单枪匹马地重新定义了这一类别，并继续以巨额利润收获回报。</p>
</div><h2>A shifting business model</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>商业模式的转变</h2>
</div><p>But Apple's business model is transitioning. In fiscal 2024, 75% of total revenue came from products, with the rest coming from services. The latter segment's dollar amount, however, of $96 billion is 108% higher than five years before, a much faster growth rate than products registered. This segment contains a wide range of money-making activities, including iCloud, advertising, AppleCare, App Store, Apple TV+, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple Arcade, Apple Pay, and Apple Card.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但苹果的商业模式正在转型。在 2024 财年，75% 的总收入来自于产品，其余来自于服务。然而，后者的金额为 960 亿美元，比五年前增长了 108%，增速远快于产品。这一部分包含了多种盈利活动，包括 iCloud、广告、AppleCare、App Store、Apple TV+、Apple Fitness+、Apple Music、Apple Arcade、Apple Pay 和 Apple Card。</p>
</div><p>It's encouraging to see the company evolve like this. After all, Apple's services, in combination with products, are what make up the powerful ecosystem. It builds customer loyalty and creates a bigger recurring revenue stream over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到公司如此发展令人鼓舞。毕竟，苹果的服务与产品结合在一起，构成了强大的生态系统。这增强了客户忠诚度，并随着时间的推移创造了更大的经常性收入流。</p>
</div><p>Investors were worried that Apple would fall behind the artificial intelligence (AI) race. But the business finally launched Apple Intelligence, a suite of AI-related features, late last year. At the end of the day, though, it still matters greatly that this initiative can drive more product sales. This ultimately leads to those devices subscribing to an Apple service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者曾担心苹果会在人工智能（AI）竞赛中落后。但该公司终于在去年底推出了 Apple Intelligence，一套与 AI 相关的功能。归根结底，这一举措能否推动更多产品销售仍然至关重要。这最终导致这些设备订阅苹果的服务。</p>
</div><p>I believe it's reasonable to assume that services and software will become even more important to Apple's financial success over time, meaning the trend will continue. This is a good thing, as the division carries a gross margin in excess of 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为可以合理地假设，随着时间的推移，服务和软件将对苹果的财务成功变得更加重要，这一趋势将持续下去。这是件好事，因为该部门的毛利率超过 70%。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's return potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的回报潜力</h2>
</div><p>Apple shares have jumped nearly 200% in the past five years. This was supported by significantly higher earnings per share (EPS) between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，苹果的股票价格上涨了近 200%。这一增长得益于 2019 财年到 2024 财年间每股收益（EPS）的显著提高。</p>
</div><p>However, investors must be aware that the valuation has also gotten richer. Apple's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at this writing is 38.4. Five years ago, in mid-January 2020, the P/E multiple was at 25. The 54% expansion indicates improving market sentiment toward the business. The current P/E ratio has actually rarely been more expensive in the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者必须意识到估值也变得更加昂贵。当前苹果的市盈率（P/E）为 38.4。五年前，即 2020 年 1 月中旬，市盈率为 25。这 54% 的扩张表明市场对该业务的情绪正在改善。在过去十年中，当前的市盈率实际上很少如此昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Apple has a powerful brand thanks to its incredibly popular products and services. And its ability to produce free cash flow is admirable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于其极受欢迎的产品和服务，苹果拥有强大的品牌。而其产生自由现金流的能力令人钦佩。</p>
</div><p>But with fiscal 2024 sales of $391 billion, it's difficult to believe outsized growth is on the horizon, especially since the iPhone is becoming more mature and consumers might not feel the need to upgrade to newer models as often.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但考虑到 2024 财年的销售额为 3910 亿美元，很难相信未来会有超常增长，尤其是 iPhone 正变得越来越成熟，消费者可能不会那么频繁地感到需要升级到新型号。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street consensus analyst estimates see EPS rising at an annualized clip of 11.4% over the next three years. Assuming that gain continues in the years after that forecast period, coupled with the possibility of the P/E ratio contracting to 30 (still a premium to the market), the stock price is expected to increase just 34% between now and the start of 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街共识分析师预计，未来三年每股收益将以 11.4% 的年化速度增长。假设这一增长在预测期之后继续，结合市盈率收缩至 30 的可能性（仍然高于市场），预计股价在现在到 2030 年初之间仅增长 34%。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, unless the valuation drops substantially, it's unlikely Apple will generate strong returns over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，除非估值大幅下降，否则苹果在未来五年内产生强劲回报的可能性不大。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 标普 500 指数在过去五年中总回报率为 92%。  
- 苹果公司在 2024 财年中，75% 收入来自产品，25% 来自服务。  
- 预计未来五年，苹果股票回报将有限，股价可能仅上涨 34%。

五年后苹果的股票会如何表现？