<p>美联储如预期于 2024 年 9 月开始降低基准利率。这是在经历了一系列自 2022 年初开始的加息后进行的，目的是帮助抑制飙升的美国通胀。到目前为止，它在连续三次的联邦会议上都降低了联邦基金利率。预计 2025 年的降息速度将放缓，但整体趋势仍将持续向下。</p>
<p>以下是两只在今年利率下降环境中应受益的股票——但利率并不是唯一可能推动它们上涨的因素。</p>
<h2>&#34;每月分红公司&#34;</h2>
<p>当利率下降时，房地产行业的股票通常会受到更高的需求，因为较低的短期利率通常与较低的抵押贷款利率相关。这有助于解释为什么 <strong>Realty Income</strong>（O 0.07%）的股价从 2024 年初约 50 美元的低点飙升至 10 月份的近 65 美元。但随着 10 年期国债收益率从 4% 以下飙升至约 4.8%，该房地产投资信托（REIT）的股价从此暴跌。</p>
<p>即使在 2024 年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）三次降息共计 100 个基点后，收益率曲线的长期端并没有跟随，长期利率却快速上升。这使得像 Realty Income 这样的分红股票相比于债券变得不那么吸引人。</p>
<p>但 Realty Income 有很多优势，股票的下跌为投资者创造了机会。它的分红——每月发放，而非季度发放——为投资者提供了比长期国债更好的收益流，即使在国债收益率上升后也是如此。最近股价徘徊在 53 美元附近，年收益率目前约为 6%。此外，管理层已经连续 30 年以 4.3% 的复合年增长率提高分红，因此投资者很可能在 2025 年看到另一次提升。</p>
<p>Realty Income 还证明了它能够在多种经济环境中发展业务。自 1996 年以来，它的调整后运营资金年均增长约为 5%。结合平均 6% 的分红收益率，这为其股东提供了 11% 的总运营平均回报。</p>
<p>它还在继续寻求增长的同时多样化其资产基础。2024 年初，它以约 93 亿美元的全股票交易完成了对同行 REIT <strong>Spirit Realty Capital</strong> 的收购。这有助于多样化和扩展其在美国的资产。</p>
<p>它还与 <strong>Digital Realty Trust</strong> 成立了合资企业，以投资于北弗吉尼亚的数据中心开发。</p>
<p>自 2023 年以来，该公司还在扩展其欧洲房地产平台，当时它在五个国家收购了 82 个不同的资产。它拥有强大的资产负债表，在 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> REIT 中拥有一些最高的债务评级。其流动性和低借款成本将使其更容易继续增长，股票在 2025 年有良好的反弹位置。</p>
<h2>能源路径领导者</h2>
<p>另一家具有强大基本面前景的分红支付者是能源管道运营商 <strong>Kinder Morgan</strong>（KMI 0.83%）。投资者已经认识到它在当前环境中的良好位置，推动股价在去年上涨超过 55%。但天然气的使用可能会增长，利率下降的环境应有利于 Kinder Morgan。</p>
<p>这家中游巨头运营或拥有总计 67,000 英里天然气管道的股份，使其成为北美最大的天然气网络。美国约 40% 的天然气通过 Kinder Morgan 的管道运输。随着国家需要产生越来越多的能源来为数据中心供电，天然气价格已经飙升。</p>
<p>数据中心建设激增，以支持人工智能（AI）软件日益增长的计算需求。去年，Kinder Morgan 还完成了近 5 亿美元的投资，以扩展其墨西哥湾沿岸快递管道，这将增加从二叠纪盆地到南德克萨斯州的天然气交付。</p>
<p>不仅是 Kinder Morgan 的管理层看到了天然气使用的长期趋势。<strong>Constellation Energy</strong> 最近宣布计划收购私营公司 Calpine，部分原因是其低碳天然气发电能力。Constellation 首席执行官 Joe Dominguez 承认，仅靠可再生能源无法满足国家日益增长的能源需求。</p>
<p>在解释为什么他的公司为 Calpine 及其天然气能力支付超过 160 亿美元时，他表示：“我们无法以如此快的速度增长零排放兆瓦，以满足这一日益增长的 [数据中心] 需求。” 数据中心还需要 24 小时的能源供应，而可再生能源并不总能提供。</p>
<p>在谈到他对收购的长期愿景时，Dominguez 补充道：“电网运营商表示，他们将在未来几十年内需要如此规模的天然气。这是在我们看到负荷预测修正之前。”</p>
<p>Kinder Morgan 董事长 Richard Kinder 对此表示赞同。在公司第三季度报告中，他表示：“随着未来几十年国内和全球天然气需求的显著增长，我们面临许多机会。”</p>
<p>投资者去年开始意识到这一点，但 Kinder Morgan 处于良好的位置，可以在未来几年继续回报股东。</p>

金德尔摩根

<p>美联储已经开始降低利率，预计这一趋势将持续到 2025 年。两只有望受益的股票是 Realty Income，一家具有强大分红历史和增长潜力的房地产投资信托基金，以及金德尔摩根，一家领先的能源管道运营商。Realty Income 的股票最近下跌，创造了一个买入机会，而金德尔摩根的股票由于其广泛的天然气管道网络和日益增长的能源需求，已经显著上涨。这两家公司在利率下降的环境中都处于良好的增长位置</p>

<p>The Federal Reserve began the process of cutting benchmark interest rates in September 2024, as expected. That came after a long series of rate hikes it initiated in early 2022 to help cool off surging U.S. inflation. So far, it has cut the federal funds rate at three consecutive Fed meetings. The pace of cuts is expected to slow in 2025, but the trend lower should continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储如预期于 2024 年 9 月开始降低基准利率。这是在经历了一系列自 2022 年初开始的加息后进行的，目的是帮助抑制飙升的美国通胀。到目前为止，它在连续三次的联邦会议上都降低了联邦基金利率。预计 2025 年的降息速度将放缓，但整体趋势仍将持续向下。</p>
</div><p>Here are two stocks that should benefit from a falling interest rate environment this year -- but rates aren't the only catalyst that could propel them higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是两只在今年利率下降环境中应受益的股票——但利率并不是唯一可能推动它们上涨的因素。</p>
</div><h2>&#34;The Monthly Dividend Company&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>&#34;每月分红公司&#34;</h2>
</div><p>When interest rates are declining, there's typically higher demand for stocks in the real estate sector as lower short-term interest rates often correlate with lower mortgage rates. That helps explain why <strong>Realty Income</strong>(O 0.07%) shares surged from a low of about $50 per share in early 2024 to nearly $65 in October. But shares of the real estate investment trust (REIT) plunged from there as 10-year Treasury yields rocketed from below 4% to about 4.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当利率下降时，房地产行业的股票通常会受到更高的需求，因为较低的短期利率通常与较低的抵押贷款利率相关。这有助于解释为什么 <strong>Realty Income</strong>（O 0.07%）的股价从 2024 年初约 50 美元的低点飙升至 10 月份的近 65 美元。但随着 10 年期国债收益率从 4% 以下飙升至约 4.8%，该房地产投资信托（REIT）的股价从此暴跌。</p>
</div><p>Even after three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2024, the long end of the yield curve didn't follow, and long-term interest rates raced higher. That made dividend-paying equities like Realty Income less attractive compared to bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在 2024 年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）三次降息共计 100 个基点后，收益率曲线的长期端并没有跟随，长期利率却快速上升。这使得像 Realty Income 这样的分红股票相比于债券变得不那么吸引人。</p>
</div><p>But Realty Income has much to offer, and the stock's decline has created an opportunity for investors. Its dividend -- which it distributes monthly, not quarterly -- offers investors an income stream with a better return than long-term Treasuries even after Treasury yields have moved higher. With the shares recently hovering near $53, the annual yield is currently about 6%. Also, management has increased the dividend for 30 consecutive years at a compound annual rate of 4.3%, so investors will likely see another boost in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Realty Income 有很多优势，股票的下跌为投资者创造了机会。它的分红——每月发放，而非季度发放——为投资者提供了比长期国债更好的收益流，即使在国债收益率上升后也是如此。最近股价徘徊在 53 美元附近，年收益率目前约为 6%。此外，管理层已经连续 30 年以 4.3% 的复合年增长率提高分红，因此投资者很可能在 2025 年看到另一次提升。</p>
</div><p>Realty Income has also proven it can grow its business in a variety of economic environments. Since 1996, it has averaged about 5% annual growth in adjusted funds from operations. Combined with a dividend yield averaging 6%, that has given its shareholders a total operational average return of 11%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Realty Income 还证明了它能够在多种经济环境中发展业务。自 1996 年以来，它的调整后运营资金年均增长约为 5%。结合平均 6% 的分红收益率，这为其股东提供了 11% 的总运营平均回报。</p>
</div><p>It is also diversifying its asset base as it continues to seek growth. It closed the acquisition of fellow REIT <strong>Spirit Realty Capital</strong> in an all-stock transaction valued at about $9.3 billion in early 2024. That helped to diversify and expand its U.S. assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还在继续寻求增长的同时多样化其资产基础。2024 年初，它以约 93 亿美元的全股票交易完成了对同行 REIT <strong>Spirit Realty Capital</strong> 的收购。这有助于多样化和扩展其在美国的资产。</p>
</div><p>It also started a joint venture with <strong>Digital Realty Trust</strong> to invest in data center development in northern Virginia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还与 <strong>Digital Realty Trust</strong> 成立了合资企业，以投资于北弗吉尼亚的数据中心开发。</p>
</div><p>The company has also been expanding its European real estate platform since 2023, when it acquired 82 different assets in five countries. It has a strong balance sheet with some of the highest debt ratings among <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> REITs. Its liquidity and low borrowing costs will make it easier for it to continue to grow, and the stock is in a good position to rebound in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年以来，该公司还在扩展其欧洲房地产平台，当时它在五个国家收购了 82 个不同的资产。它拥有强大的资产负债表，在 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> REIT 中拥有一些最高的债务评级。其流动性和低借款成本将使其更容易继续增长，股票在 2025 年有良好的反弹位置。</p>
</div><h2>Energy pathway leader</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>能源路径领导者</h2>
</div><p>Another dividend payer with a strong underlying business outlook is energy pipeline operator <strong>Kinder Morgan</strong>(KMI 0.83%). Investors have already recognized that it's in a good position in the current environment, pushing the stock up by more than 55% last year. But the use of natural gas is likely to grow, and a falling interest rate environment should benefit Kinder Morgan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一家具有强大基本面前景的分红支付者是能源管道运营商 <strong>Kinder Morgan</strong>（KMI 0.83%）。投资者已经认识到它在当前环境中的良好位置，推动股价在去年上涨超过 55%。但天然气的使用可能会增长，利率下降的环境应有利于 Kinder Morgan。</p>
</div><p>The midstream giant either operates or has ownership stakes in a total of 67,000 miles of natural gas pipelines, giving it the largest natural gas network in North America. About 40% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S. is transported by Kinder Morgan's pipelines. Natural gas prices have been surging as it has become apparent that the country will need to generate increasing amounts of energy to power data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家中游巨头运营或拥有总计 67,000 英里天然气管道的股份，使其成为北美最大的天然气网络。美国约 40% 的天然气通过 Kinder Morgan 的管道运输。随着国家需要产生越来越多的能源来为数据中心供电，天然气价格已经飙升。</p>
</div><p>Data center construction has exploded to support the expanding computing needs of artificial intelligence (AI) software. Last year, Kinder Morgan also finalized an investment of almost $500 million to expand its Gulf Coast Express pipeline, which will increase natural gas deliveries from the Permian Basin to southern Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据中心建设激增，以支持人工智能（AI）软件日益增长的计算需求。去年，Kinder Morgan 还完成了近 5 亿美元的投资，以扩展其墨西哥湾沿岸快递管道，这将增加从二叠纪盆地到南德克萨斯州的天然气交付。</p>
</div><p>It's not just Kinder Morgan management that sees a long-term trend of increasing natural gas use. <strong>Constellation Energy</strong> recently announced plans to acquire privately held Calpine, in part for its low-carbon natural gas generation capacity. Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez acknowledged that renewable sources alone won't be sufficient to meet the country's growing energy needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅是 Kinder Morgan 的管理层看到了天然气使用的长期趋势。<strong>Constellation Energy</strong> 最近宣布计划收购私营公司 Calpine，部分原因是其低碳天然气发电能力。Constellation 首席执行官 Joe Dominguez 承认，仅靠可再生能源无法满足国家日益增长的能源需求。</p>
</div><p>Explaining why his company paid over $16 billion for Calpine and its natural gas capacity, he stated, &#34;We can't grow zero-emission megawatts that fast, to meet this growing [data center] demand.&#34; Data centers also require a 24-hour energy supply, which renewable sources can't always provide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在解释为什么他的公司为 Calpine 及其天然气能力支付超过 160 亿美元时，他表示：“我们无法以如此快的速度增长零排放兆瓦，以满足这一日益增长的 [数据中心] 需求。” 数据中心还需要 24 小时的能源供应，而可再生能源并不总能提供。</p>
</div><p>Addressing his long-term vision for the acquisition, Dominquez added, &#34;The grid operators are saying they're going to need natural gas at these volumes for decades to come. That was before we've seen these revisions for load forecasts.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在谈到他对收购的长期愿景时，Dominguez 补充道：“电网运营商表示，他们将在未来几十年内需要如此规模的天然气。这是在我们看到负荷预测修正之前。”</p>
</div><p>Kinder Morgan Chairman Richard Kinder agrees. In his company's third-quarter report, he stated, &#34;With substantial projected increases in natural gas demand both domestically and globally in the coming decades, we have many opportunities on the horizon.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kinder Morgan 董事长 Richard Kinder 对此表示赞同。在公司第三季度报告中，他表示：“随着未来几十年国内和全球天然气需求的显著增长，我们面临许多机会。”</p>
</div><p>Investors started to recognize that last year, but Kinder Morgan is in a fine position to continue rewarding shareholders for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者去年开始意识到这一点，但 Kinder Morgan 处于良好的位置，可以在未来几年继续回报股东。</p>
</div>

Prediction: These 2 Stocks Could Soar if the Fed Cuts Rates Further in 2025

- 美联储于 2024 年 9 月开始降息，预计 2025 年降息速度将放缓。  
- Realty Income 和 Kinder Morgan 在降息环境中受益，前者股息收益率约为 6%。  
- Kinder Morgan 拥有北美最大天然气管道网络，预计天然气需求将持续增长。  

Motley Fool

预测：如果美联储在 2025 年进一步降息，这两只股票可能会大幅上涨