<p>许多亿万富翁投资者在过去几年中大量购买了 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 3.10%）的股票，因为其股价飙升。这并不令人惊讶，因为其面向人工智能（AI）的数据中心 GPU 销售激增，使其成为市场上最热门的成长股之一。</p>
<p>然而，看到一些大投资者在过去五年中股价上涨 2100% 后减少对这家芯片制造商的投资也并不意外。英伟达仍在快速增长，但仍面临长期挑战，如对中国的出口限制、潜在的反垄断调查以及来自其他 AI 芯片制造商的竞争。宏观经济逆风也可能最终促使更多公司削减对新 AI 软件和硬件的支出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQyOTQvYS1iaXRjb2luLW9uLWEtc2NyZWVuLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQyOTQvYS1iaXRjb2luLW9uLWEtc2NyZWVuLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>根据他们最新的 13F 文件，一些亿万富翁已经开始出售他们的英伟达股票。Millennium Management 的以色列·英格兰德在 2024 年第三季度将其在英伟达的持仓减少了 12.5%。Capula Management 的霍扬在第三季度削减了 27.7% 的英伟达股份。</p>
<p>但与此同时，这两位备受关注的亿万富翁投资者通过流行的 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF</strong>（IBIT 4.43%）增加了对 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.35%）的投资。在第三季度，英格兰德增加了 1260 万股该交易所交易基金（ETF）的持仓，而霍扬又购买了 110 万股。</p>
<p>从英伟达转向比特币的这一变化表明，全球顶级加密货币在过去五年中飙升超过 1000% 后，可能仍有上涨空间。Cathie Wood 通过 Ark Invest 的 <strong>21Shares Bitcoin ETF</strong>（ARKB 4.36%）持有比特币，她预计其价格将从约 100,000 美元飙升至 2030 年的 380 万美元。如果那样的话，这些现货价格 ETF 在未来五年内可能会飙升 3700%。这轮上涨将使一项 10,000 美元的投资变成 380,000 美元。</p>
<p>投资者应该对这些乐观的估计保持谨慎，因为比特币的真正价值仍然难以确定。但让我们看看比特币的潜在催化剂，以及为什么它可能在长期内超越英伟达和其他成长股。</p>
<h2>比特币的看涨理由</h2>
<p>比特币是通过一种能源密集型的工作量证明（PoW）方法进行挖矿的，目前需要强大的专用集成电路（ASIC）矿机。比特币的供应量有限，总共 2100 万个比特币，其中已经挖掘了 1990 万个。每四年，计划中的 “减半” 将比特币的挖矿奖励减半。最近一次减半发生在 2024 年 4 月，下一次计划在 2028 年进行。</p>
<p>这种不断上升的难度将限制新比特币的挖掘速度，最后一个比特币预计将在 2140 年被挖掘出来。这些特性使比特币更像黄金或白银等贵金属，而不是其他通过 “铸造”（在区块链上创建新块）或通过较少能源密集的权益证明（PoS）机制作为奖励支付的加密货币。这就是为什么证券交易委员会（SEC）在去年 1 月批准了首个比特币现货价格 ETF。SEC 还表示，比特币是唯一可以被归类为商品的加密货币。</p>
<p>许多比特币看涨者认为，这些优势使其成为黄金和其他商品作为对抗通货膨胀的有效替代品。萨尔瓦多和中非共和国已经尝试将比特币作为国家货币，其他面临通货膨胀和货币贬值问题的国家可能会效仿。随着这种情况的发展，更多的机构投资者可能会增加对比特币的投资，特别是通过易于交易的现货价格 ETF，从而推动其价格进一步上涨。</p>
<h2>但比特币真的能在长期内超越英伟达吗？</h2>
<p>比特币比许多其他加密货币具有更明显的优势，但其真实价值几乎无法确定。如果它在未来五年内真的飙升 3700%，那么它很可能会远远超越英伟达，因为那样的上涨将使这家芯片制造商的市值从 3.3 万亿美元飙升至近 126 万亿美元。</p>
<p>即使是英伟达最乐观的投资者也可能不指望到 2030 年能接近这样的估值。但对于比特币来说，这就更难判断了。如果比特币的价格达到 380 万美元，其市值将从 2 万亿美元飙升至约 76 万亿美元，但如果它取代黄金——黄金的市值为 18.5 万亿美元——这一估值可能是合理的。因此，如果你相信比特币仍有光明的未来，跟随这些亿万富翁，适度投资其现货价格 ETF 可能是明智的。</p>

英伟达

<p>亿万富翁投资者正从英伟达转向比特币，以色列·英格兰德和霍扬的英伟达持股显著减少，同时他们在 iShares 比特币信托 ETF 中的投资份额有所增加。凯西·伍德预测到 2030 年比特币可能飙升至 380 万美元，这意味着现货价格 ETF 可能有 3,700% 的增长。比特币的有限供应和最近的减半事件可能会推动机构投资者的兴趣，使其成为对抗通货膨胀的对冲工具。这一转变表明人们对比特币长期潜力的信心，可能在未来几年超越英伟达</p>

<p>Many billionaire investors loaded up on <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 3.10%) stock as it soared over the past few years. That wasn't surprising, since its soaring sales of artificial intelligence (AI)-oriented data center GPUs turned it into one of the market's hottest growth stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多亿万富翁投资者在过去几年中大量购买了 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 3.10%）的股票，因为其股价飙升。这并不令人惊讶，因为其面向人工智能（AI）的数据中心 GPU 销售激增，使其成为市场上最热门的成长股之一。</p>
</div><p>Yet it also wasn't surprising to see some of those big investors reduce their exposure to the chipmaker after its 2,100% run over the past five years. Nvidia is still growing like a weed, but it still faces longer-term challenges like export curbs against China, potential antitrust probes, and competition from other AI chipmakers. The macro headwinds could also eventually drive more companies to rein in their spending on new AI software and hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，看到一些大投资者在过去五年中股价上涨 2100% 后减少对这家芯片制造商的投资也并不意外。英伟达仍在快速增长，但仍面临长期挑战，如对中国的出口限制、潜在的反垄断调查以及来自其他 AI 芯片制造商的竞争。宏观经济逆风也可能最终促使更多公司削减对新 AI 软件和硬件的支出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQyOTQvYS1iaXRjb2luLW9uLWEtc2NyZWVuLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F804294%2Fa-bitcoin-on-a-screen.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>According to their latest 13F filings, some billionaires have been selling their Nvidia shares. Millennium Management's Israel Englander reduced his position in Nvidia by 12.5% in the third quarter of 2024. Capula Managment's Yan Huo trimmed his stake in Nvidia by 27.7% in the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据他们最新的 13F 文件，一些亿万富翁已经开始出售他们的英伟达股票。Millennium Management 的以色列·英格兰德在 2024 年第三季度将其在英伟达的持仓减少了 12.5%。Capula Management 的霍扬在第三季度削减了 27.7% 的英伟达股份。</p>
</div><p>But at the same time, these two closely watched billionaire investors boosted their exposure to <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.35%) through the popular <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF</strong>(IBIT 4.43%). During the third quarter, Englander increased his position in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) by 12.6 million shares as Huo scooped up another 1.1 million shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与此同时，这两位备受关注的亿万富翁投资者通过流行的 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF</strong>（IBIT 4.43%）增加了对 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.35%）的投资。在第三季度，英格兰德增加了 1260 万股该交易所交易基金（ETF）的持仓，而霍扬又购买了 110 万股。</p>
</div><p>This shift from Nvidia toward Bitcoin suggests the world's top cryptocurrency might still have room to run after soaring more than 1,000% over the past five years. Cathie Wood, who holds Bitcoin through Ark Invest's <strong>21Shares Bitcoin ETF</strong>(ARKB 4.36%), sees its price soaring from about $100,000 to $3.8 million by 2030. If that happens, these spot price ETFs could surge by a whopping 3,700% over the next five years. That rally would turn a modest $10,000 investment into $380,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从英伟达转向比特币的这一变化表明，全球顶级加密货币在过去五年中飙升超过 1000% 后，可能仍有上涨空间。Cathie Wood 通过 Ark Invest 的 <strong>21Shares Bitcoin ETF</strong>（ARKB 4.36%）持有比特币，她预计其价格将从约 100,000 美元飙升至 2030 年的 380 万美元。如果那样的话，这些现货价格 ETF 在未来五年内可能会飙升 3700%。这轮上涨将使一项 10,000 美元的投资变成 380,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Investors should take those bullish estimates with a grain of salt, since Bitcoin is still tough to properly value. But let's take a look at Bitcoin's potential catalysts and why it might just outperform Nvidia and other growth stocks over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该对这些乐观的估计保持谨慎，因为比特币的真正价值仍然难以确定。但让我们看看比特币的潜在催化剂，以及为什么它可能在长期内超越英伟达和其他成长股。</p>
</div><h2>The bull case for Bitcoin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币的看涨理由</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin is mined using an energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) method that currently requires powerful application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) miners. There's a finite supply of 21 million Bitcoins, and 19.9 million of those coins have already been mined. Every four years, a scheduled &#34;halving&#34; cuts the rewards for mining Bitcoin in half. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and the next one is scheduled for 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币是通过一种能源密集型的工作量证明（PoW）方法进行挖矿的，目前需要强大的专用集成电路（ASIC）矿机。比特币的供应量有限，总共 2100 万个比特币，其中已经挖掘了 1990 万个。每四年，计划中的 “减半” 将比特币的挖矿奖励减半。最近一次减半发生在 2024 年 4 月，下一次计划在 2028 年进行。</p>
</div><p>That escalating difficulty will throttle the rate at which new Bitcoins are mined, and the final Bitcoin is expected to be mined by 2140. Those qualities all make Bitcoin more similar to a precious metal like gold or silver than other cryptocurrencies that are either &#34;minted&#34; (by creating new blocks on a blockchain) or paid out as rewards through the less energy-intensive proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism. That's why the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot price ETFs for Bitcoin last January. The SEC also states that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that can be classified as a commodity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种不断上升的难度将限制新比特币的挖掘速度，最后一个比特币预计将在 2140 年被挖掘出来。这些特性使比特币更像黄金或白银等贵金属，而不是其他通过 “铸造”（在区块链上创建新块）或通过较少能源密集的权益证明（PoS）机制作为奖励支付的加密货币。这就是为什么证券交易委员会（SEC）在去年 1 月批准了首个比特币现货价格 ETF。SEC 还表示，比特币是唯一可以被归类为商品的加密货币。</p>
</div><p>Many Bitcoin bulls believe those strengths make it a viable replacement for gold and other commodities as a hedge against inflation. El Salvador and the Central African Republic have already tried adopting Bitcoin as a national currency, and other countries struggling with inflation and currency devaluation issues might follow their lead. As that happens, more institutional investors will likely boost their exposure to Bitcoin -- especially through easily traded spot price ETFs -- and drive its price even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多比特币看涨者认为，这些优势使其成为黄金和其他商品作为对抗通货膨胀的有效替代品。萨尔瓦多和中非共和国已经尝试将比特币作为国家货币，其他面临通货膨胀和货币贬值问题的国家可能会效仿。随着这种情况的发展，更多的机构投资者可能会增加对比特币的投资，特别是通过易于交易的现货价格 ETF，从而推动其价格进一步上涨。</p>
</div><h2>But could Bitcoin really outperform Nvidia over the long run?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但比特币真的能在长期内超越英伟达吗？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has more visible strengths than many other cryptocurrencies, but its true value is nearly impossible to determine. If it really soars 3,700% over the next five years, it would likely outperform Nvidia by a mile -- since that kind of rally would drive the chipmaker's market cap of $3.3 trillion to nearly $126 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币比许多其他加密货币具有更明显的优势，但其真实价值几乎无法确定。如果它在未来五年内真的飙升 3700%，那么它很可能会远远超越英伟达，因为那样的上涨将使这家芯片制造商的市值从 3.3 万亿美元飙升至近 126 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Even Nvidia's most bullish investors probably don't expect it to come anywhere close to that valuation by 2030. But with Bitcoin, it's harder to tell. Bitcoin's market cap would surge from $2 trillion to about $76 trillion if its price hits $3.8 million, yet that valuation might be justified if it replaces gold -- which has a market cap of $18.5 trillion -- as the world's most valuable asset. So if you believe Bitcoin still has a bright future, it might be smart to follow these billionaires and nibble on its spot price ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是英伟达最乐观的投资者也可能不指望到 2030 年能接近这样的估值。但对于比特币来说，这就更难判断了。如果比特币的价格达到 380 万美元，其市值将从 2 万亿美元飙升至约 76 万亿美元，但如果它取代黄金——黄金的市值为 18.5 万亿美元——这一估值可能是合理的。因此，如果你相信比特币仍有光明的未来，跟随这些亿万富翁，适度投资其现货价格 ETF 可能是明智的。</p>
</div>

Billionaires Are Selling Nvidia and Buying a Bitcoin ETF That Cathie Wood Thinks Could Soar Up to 3,700%

- 一些亿万富翁投资者在 Nvidia 股价飙升后减持其股份。  
- 同时，他们增加了对比特币的投资，显示出比特币的潜力。  
- 比特币的稀缺性和机构投资者的关注可能推动其价格上涨。  

Motley Fool

亚历山大房地产

亿万富翁正在抛售英伟达并购买 Cathie Wood 认为可能飙升至 3700% 的比特币 ETF