<p>在人工智能（AI）领域的机会方面，像 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>特斯拉</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.92%）等大型科技巨头总是能找到成为焦点的方法。</p>
<p>被称为 &#34;七大巨头&#34; 的这些科技巨头正在以多种方式引领 AI 革命。虽然我认为投资于每家公司都有几个好处，但亚马逊无疑是我最看好的选择。</p>
<p>在过去一年中，亚马逊的股价飙升了 49%——轻松超越了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>。尽管取得了这些令人印象深刻的收益，我认为亚马逊的派对才刚刚开始。</p>
<p>我将深入探讨亚马逊如何构建一个值得密切关注的 AI 路线图。此外，我还将探讨该公司的举措如何在未来几年内影响股价，并论证为什么亚马逊在当前的 AI 世界中看起来是一个绝佳机会。</p>
<h2>赚钱需要花钱</h2>
<p>在我看来，亚马逊是一家被误解的企业。公司的主要销售和利润来源于其电子商务市场和云计算基础设施。然而，这两个领域都相当容易受到通货膨胀和利率等宏观经济因素的影响。因此，亚马逊可能会经历较长时间的不稳定的收入和利润增长。</p>
<p>尽管财务状况存在这些波动，亚马逊明确表明了一点：管理层不怕花钱。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ0NzkvYW1hem9uLWNhcGV4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ0NzkvYW1hem9uLWNhcGV4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
<p>亚马逊在资本支出（capex）投资上加大了力度。表面上，我理解这种规模的支出可能会引起一些担忧。但看看亚马逊的现金流状况——在过去一年中，公司运营现金流和自由现金流分别增长了 57% 和 123%。</p>
<p>我将深入探讨这些资本支出投资的去向，并论证为什么亚马逊的下一个增长浪潮才刚刚开始。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的业务正在加速，可能会进入全新阶段</h2>
<p>根据公司最新的 10-Q 文件，显示的资本支出中有很大一部分被分配用于 &#34;技术基础设施投资（其中大部分是为了支持 AWS 业务增长）&#34;。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>类别</th>
<th>3Q23</th>
<th>4Q23</th>
<th>1Q24</th>
<th>2Q24</th>
<th>3Q24</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>亚马逊网络服务收入增长 -- 年同比百分比</td>
<td>12%</td>
<td>13%</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>亚马逊网络服务营业收入增长 -- 年同比百分比</td>
<td>30%</td>
<td>39%</td>
<td>83%</td>
<td>72%</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
<p>在过去一年中，亚马逊宣布了几项举措，包括构建自己的定制芯片、建立自己的数据中心，以及向 AI 初创公司 Anthropic 投资 80 亿美元。如果你查看亚马逊云业务的趋势表，我认为可以更清楚地看到公司的资本支出投资已经开始产生回报。</p>
<p>此外，考虑到亚马逊在数据中心和芯片基础设施方面的举措尚未达到相当规模，我认为投资者应该关注公司在未来几年内收入和盈利能力的突破性加速。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ0NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtNDkxMzExNDAwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ0NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtNDkxMzExNDAwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>亚马逊可能成为最大的 AI 赢家</h2>
<p>在我看来，解锁亚马逊下一个增长阶段的关键是 AI 基础设施。值得注意的是，Wedbush Securities 的技术研究负责人 Dan Ives 预测未来几年将在 AI 基础设施上花费数万亿。</p>
<p>这些动态将成为像亚马逊这样的云计算巨头的主要助力。这是一个大问题，因为亚马逊大部分的盈利来自其云业务 AWS。我的看法是，随着亚马逊的利润率扩大，现金流和盈利能力复合增长，公司的估值倍数应该会显著扩大。</p>
<p>三年后，我可以看到亚马逊成为全球最有价值的 AI 公司。然而现在，股票的价格简直是个便宜货。亚马逊的自由现金流仅为其五年平均水平的一半，交易倍数仅为 56 倍。</p>
<p>在我看来，现在是大量购买亚马逊股票的绝佳机会。更好的日子似乎即将到来，我认为更多投资者开始意识到公司的潜力只是时间问题。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊被视为人工智能领域的顶级投资，过去一年股价上涨了 49%。尽管面临宏观经济挑战，公司仍在增加资本支出，特别是在技术基础设施方面，以支持 AWS 的增长。分析师预测在人工智能基础设施上的支出将显著增加，这可能会提升亚马逊的盈利能力和估值。目前，亚马逊的自由现金流市盈率为 56 倍，被视为一个划算的投资，预计在三年内有潜力成为最有价值的人工智能公司</p>

<p>When it comes to opportunities in the artificial intelligence (AI) arena, big tech stalwarts such as <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Tesla</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.92%) always seem to find a way to be in the spotlight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在人工智能（AI）领域的机会方面，像 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>特斯拉</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.92%）等大型科技巨头总是能找到成为焦点的方法。</p>
</div><p>Known as the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34;, these technology behemoths are leading the charge in the AI revolution in myriad ways. And while I see several benefits to invest in each, Amazon is by far my top pick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被称为 &#34;七大巨头&#34; 的这些科技巨头正在以多种方式引领 AI 革命。虽然我认为投资于每家公司都有几个好处，但亚马逊无疑是我最看好的选择。</p>
</div><p>Over the last year, shares of Amazon have soared by 49% -- handily topping the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>. And yet despite these impressive gains, I think Amazon's party is just getting started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年中，亚马逊的股价飙升了 49%——轻松超越了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>。尽管取得了这些令人印象深刻的收益，我认为亚马逊的派对才刚刚开始。</p>
</div><p>I'm going to dive into how Amazon is building an AI roadmap that should be watched closely. Moreover, I'll explore how the company's moves could impact the stock price over the next several years and make the case for why Amazon looks like a prime opportunity in the AI world right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我将深入探讨亚马逊如何构建一个值得密切关注的 AI 路线图。此外，我还将探讨该公司的举措如何在未来几年内影响股价，并论证为什么亚马逊在当前的 AI 世界中看起来是一个绝佳机会。</p>
</div><h2>It takes money to make money</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>赚钱需要花钱</h2>
</div><p>In my opinion, Amazon is a misunderstood business. The company's primary sources of sales and profits stem from its e-commerce marketplace and cloud computing infrastructure. However, both of these segments are quite exposed to macroeconomic forces such as inflation and interest rates. For this reason, Amazon can experience prolonged periods of inconsistent top- and-bottom-line growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，亚马逊是一家被误解的企业。公司的主要销售和利润来源于其电子商务市场和云计算基础设施。然而，这两个领域都相当容易受到通货膨胀和利率等宏观经济因素的影响。因此，亚马逊可能会经历较长时间的不稳定的收入和利润增长。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, despite these fluctuations across the financial profile, Amazon has made one thing clear: Management is not afraid to spend money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管财务状况存在这些波动，亚马逊明确表明了一点：管理层不怕花钱。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ0NzkvYW1hem9uLWNhcGV4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F804479%2Famazon-capex.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Investor relations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has been doubling down on its capital expenditure (capex) investments for a while now. On the surface, I understand why spending of this magnitude could cause some trepidation. But just look at Amazon's cash flow profile -- over the last year, the company has increased its operating cash flow and free cash flow by 57% and 123%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在资本支出（capex）投资上加大了力度。表面上，我理解这种规模的支出可能会引起一些担忧。但看看亚马逊的现金流状况——在过去一年中，公司运营现金流和自由现金流分别增长了 57% 和 123%。</p>
</div><p>I'm going to dig deeper into where these capex investments are going and make the case for why Amazon's next growth wave is just getting started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我将深入探讨这些资本支出投资的去向，并论证为什么亚马逊的下一个增长浪潮才刚刚开始。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's business is accelerating, and it could kick into a whole new gear</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的业务正在加速，可能会进入全新阶段</h2>
</div><p>According to the company's latest 10-Q filing, a good portion of the capex spend shown is being allocated toward &#34;investments in technology infrastructure (the majority of which is to support AWS business growth).&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据公司最新的 10-Q 文件，显示的资本支出中有很大一部分被分配用于 &#34;技术基础设施投资（其中大部分是为了支持 AWS 业务增长）&#34;。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Category</th>
<th>3Q23</th>
<th>4Q23</th>
<th>1Q24</th>
<th>2Q24</th>
<th>3Q24</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Amazon Web Services revenue growth -- % year over year</td>
<td>12%</td>
<td>13%</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon Web Services operating income growth -- % year over year</td>
<td>30%</td>
<td>39%</td>
<td>83%</td>
<td>72%</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>类别</th>
<th>3Q23</th>
<th>4Q23</th>
<th>1Q24</th>
<th>2Q24</th>
<th>3Q24</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>亚马逊网络服务收入增长 -- 年同比百分比</td>
<td>12%</td>
<td>13%</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>亚马逊网络服务营业收入增长 -- 年同比百分比</td>
<td>30%</td>
<td>39%</td>
<td>83%</td>
<td>72%</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Investor relations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
</div><p>Over the last year, Amazon has announced several initiatives, including building its own custom chipware, building its own data centers, and investing $8 billion into an AI start-up, Anthropic. If you take a look at the trends across Amazon's cloud business in the table, I think it becomes more clear that the company's capex investments are already generating a return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年中，亚马逊宣布了几项举措，包括构建自己的定制芯片、建立自己的数据中心，以及向 AI 初创公司 Anthropic 投资 80 亿美元。如果你查看亚马逊云业务的趋势表，我认为可以更清楚地看到公司的资本支出投资已经开始产生回报。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, considering that Amazon's initiatives in data center and chip infrastructure are still yet to reach considerable scale, I think investors should be on the lookout for some breakout acceleration across the company's revenue and profitability over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，考虑到亚马逊在数据中心和芯片基础设施方面的举措尚未达到相当规模，我认为投资者应该关注公司在未来几年内收入和盈利能力的突破性加速。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ0NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtNDkxMzExNDAwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F804479%2Fgettyimages-491311400.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon could emerge as the biggest AI winner of all</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊可能成为最大的 AI 赢家</h2>
</div><p>To me, the key that will unlock Amazon's next phase of growth is AI infrastructure. Notably, Dan Ives, who leads technology research at Wedbush Securities, is forecasting trillions to be spent on AI infrastructure over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，解锁亚马逊下一个增长阶段的关键是 AI 基础设施。值得注意的是，Wedbush Securities 的技术研究负责人 Dan Ives 预测未来几年将在 AI 基础设施上花费数万亿。</p>
</div><p>These dynamics will be a major tailwind for cloud hyperscalers such as Amazon. This is a big deal, because the majority of Amazon's profitability stems from its cloud segment, AWS. My take is that as Amazon's profit margins widen and cash flow and earnings power compound, the company's valuation multiples should begin to expand considerably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些动态将成为像亚马逊这样的云计算巨头的主要助力。这是一个大问题，因为亚马逊大部分的盈利来自其云业务 AWS。我的看法是，随着亚马逊的利润率扩大，现金流和盈利能力复合增长，公司的估值倍数应该会显著扩大。</p>
</div><p>Three years from now, I could see Amazon emerging as the most valuable AI company in the world. And yet right now, the stock is a downright bargain. Amazon trades at just 56 times its free cash flow, about half its five-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三年后，我可以看到亚马逊成为全球最有价值的 AI 公司。然而现在，股票的价格简直是个便宜货。亚马逊的自由现金流仅为其五年平均水平的一半，交易倍数仅为 56 倍。</p>
</div><p>To me, now is an incredible opportunity to buy Amazon stock hand over fist. Better days look to be very much in store, and I think it's only a matter of time before more investors begin to catch on to the company's potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，现在是大量购买亚马逊股票的绝佳机会。更好的日子似乎即将到来，我认为更多投资者开始意识到公司的潜力只是时间问题。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 3 Years?

- 亚马逊在人工智能领域的投资正在加速，预计将推动未来增长。  
- 过去一年，亚马逊的运营现金流和自由现金流分别增长了 57% 和 123%。  
- 目前亚马逊的股票估值较低，未来有望成为全球最有价值的人工智能公司。

亚马逊的股票在三年后会达到什么水平？