<p>在一个罕见的举动中，杰富瑞的分析师将全球最大的公司之一，<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.39%)，下调至表现不佳。华尔街分析师以乐观著称，因此表现不佳和卖出评级通常只占整体分析师评级的一小部分。</p>
<p>就其本身而言，杰富瑞预计第四季度 iPhone 出货量疲软，苹果的人工智能（AI）功能未能引起消费者的共鸣。它引用了一项调查，显示大多数美国消费者认为 AI 功能并不太有用。因此，它认为这表明 iPhone 不会迎来 AI 动力升级周期。</p>
<p>杰富瑞预计苹果将错过当前分析师的收入预期，预计在 1 月底公布的第四季度业绩中增长 5%。它还认为苹果第一季度的指导可能也会令人失望。该股票的目标价为 200.75 美元。</p>
<p>鉴于这一罕见的表现不佳评级，许多投资者可能会想知道是否是时候出售该股票。</p>
<h2>强大的商业模式</h2>
<p>尽管与 iPhone 销售预测相关的评级下调，但有一件事没有改变：苹果拥有强大的商业模式。该公司的收入增长在截至 9 月的 2024 财年中表现平平。其年度收入仅增长了 2%，而第四季度增长了 6%。与此同时，其设备的收入增长更是糟糕。产品收入在其财年中实际上下降了 1%，而在上一个财季则增长了 4%。</p>
<p>苹果在高利润服务收入方面的增长更为强劲。这包括来自 App Store 的收入、搜索分成收入、Apple TV、Apple Pay 以及其他订阅和服务。上一个财年，其服务收入增长了 13%，第四季度增长了 12%。</p>
<p>其服务的毛利率接近 74%，而产品的毛利率约为 37%。由于服务的毛利率几乎是产品的两倍，来自服务的收入更容易转化为净利润。因此，尽管收入仅增长了 2%，该公司去年仍能够将调整后的每股收益增长 11% 至 6.75 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ3MzUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODc3OTA2MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ3MzUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODc3OTA2MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>目前看来，与苹果智能相关的大规模 iPhone 升级周期并未实现。该公司在其产品上遇到了一些问题，例如其 AI 生成的不准确新闻提醒。同时，调查显示，iPhone 和 Android 智能手机用户都表示 AI 功能几乎没有增加任何价值。还有一个问题是用户是否最终会为 AI 订阅服务付费。对苹果来说，AI 似乎更多的是一种成本，而没有任何抵消的收入收益。</p>
<p>该公司也未能在中国的智能手机中包含苹果智能。它在与当地竞争对手的竞争中已经面临困难，Counterpoint Research 的数据显示，第四季度 iPhone 在中国的销量下降了 18%。与此同时，竞争对手华为的智能手机销量在该季度增长了 15.5%。</p>
<p>苹果在推出最新版本后，最初在中国的 iPhone 销量强劲。然而，其 AI 在中国未获批准，必须找到当地的 AI 合作伙伴，以整合其技术来运行苹果智能。苹果主要在中国的高端智能手机市场竞争，因此缺乏最新的 AI 技术使其落后于竞争对手。</p>
<p>除了智能手机销售，苹果还面临与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 反垄断案件相关的另一个重大风险。Alphabet 每年向苹果支付约 200 亿美元，作为其收入分成模型的一部分，使谷歌成为其 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。这笔收入几乎是纯利润，直接进入营业收入。随着 Alphabet 在反垄断案件中失利，这一协议面临风险，最终可能对这一收入来源产生的影响仍然悬而未决，因为该案件可能导致一些重大变化。然而，任何影响可能还需要数年时间，因为裁决正在上诉，两家公司都有理由保护目前的安排。</p>
<h2>扩大估值</h2>
<p>在过去几年中，苹果股票经历了大量的市盈率扩张。其过去的市盈率（P/E）几乎从 12 倍增长到 36 倍，而基于当前财年预期的前瞻市盈率约为 30 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1502d6e0a95530093cf47b0f077b4c05.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1502d6e0a95530093cf47b0f077b4c05.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>部分市盈率扩张可以归因于向高利润服务收入的转变，因为这些业务通常比硬件业务具有更高的市盈率。苹果也证明了自己是一家稳定的企业，通常具有相对可预测的，尽管延长的，替换周期。</p>
<p>也就是说，随着 iPhone 升级周期的希望减弱，以及股票在过去六年中经历了大量的市盈率扩张，我认为在股票上获利了结是明智的选择。</p>

苹果

<p>杰富瑞的分析师将苹果（AAPL）评级下调至 “表现不佳”，理由是 iPhone 出货量疲软以及消费者对其人工智能功能缺乏兴趣。他们预测苹果将错失收入预期，预计第四季度仅增长 5%。尽管如此，苹果强大的商业模式，特别是在高利润服务方面，使其调整后的每股收益增长了 11%。然而，中国市场的挑战以及来自 Alphabet 反垄断案件的潜在风险仍然笼罩在公司之上。杰富瑞设定的目标价为 200.75 美元，这引发了投资者是否应该抛售该股票的疑问</p>

<p>In a rare move, analysts at Jefferies downgraded one of the largest companies in the world, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.39%), to underperform. Wall Street analysts are known for being bullish, so underperform and sell ratings tend to make up only a small percentage of overall analyst ratings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一个罕见的举动中，杰富瑞的分析师将全球最大的公司之一，<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.39%)，下调至表现不佳。华尔街分析师以乐观著称，因此表现不佳和卖出评级通常只占整体分析师评级的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>For its part, Jefferies sees weak iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter, with Apple's artificial intelligence (AI) features not resonating with consumers. It cited a survey that most U.S. consumers do not find AI features very useful. As such, it thinks this is an indication that there will not be an AI power upgrade cycle for the iPhone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就其本身而言，杰富瑞预计第四季度 iPhone 出货量疲软，苹果的人工智能（AI）功能未能引起消费者的共鸣。它引用了一项调查，显示大多数美国消费者认为 AI 功能并不太有用。因此，它认为这表明 iPhone 不会迎来 AI 动力升级周期。</p>
</div><p>Jefferies expects Apple to miss current analyst revenue estimates, calling for 5% growth when it reports its Q4 results at the end of January. It also thinks there is a good possibility Apple's Q1 guidance could disappoint as well. Its price target for the stock is $200.75.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰富瑞预计苹果将错过当前分析师的收入预期，预计在 1 月底公布的第四季度业绩中增长 5%。它还认为苹果第一季度的指导可能也会令人失望。该股票的目标价为 200.75 美元。</p>
</div><p>Given the rare underperform rating, many investors may be wondering if it's time to sell the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这一罕见的表现不佳评级，许多投资者可能会想知道是否是时候出售该股票。</p>
</div><h2>A strong business model</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>强大的商业模式</h2>
</div><p>Despite the downgrade related to iPhone sales projections, one thing has not changed: Apple has a strong business model. The company's revenue growth was pretty lackluster throughout its fiscal 2024 ended in September. It only grew its revenue 2% on the year and 6% for its fiscal Q4. Revenue growth for its devices, meanwhile, has been even worse. Product revenue actually fell by 1% for its fiscal year, while rising by 4% last fiscal quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管与 iPhone 销售预测相关的评级下调，但有一件事没有改变：苹果拥有强大的商业模式。该公司的收入增长在截至 9 月的 2024 财年中表现平平。其年度收入仅增长了 2%，而第四季度增长了 6%。与此同时，其设备的收入增长更是糟糕。产品收入在其财年中实际上下降了 1%，而在上一个财季则增长了 4%。</p>
</div><p>Where Apple has seen stronger growth is in its high-margin services revenue. This includes revenue from its App Store, search-sharing revenue, Apple TV, Apple Pay, and other subscriptions and services. Last fiscal year, its services revenue climbed 13% and was up 12% in Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在高利润服务收入方面的增长更为强劲。这包括来自 App Store 的收入、搜索分成收入、Apple TV、Apple Pay 以及其他订阅和服务。上一个财年，其服务收入增长了 13%，第四季度增长了 12%。</p>
</div><p>Its services gross margin is close to 74%, while its product gross margin is about 37%. With the services margin nearly double, revenue coming from services more easily drops to bottom-line profits. As such, the company was able to grow its adjusted earnings per share by 11% last year to $6.75, despite only a 2% increase in revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其服务的毛利率接近 74%，而产品的毛利率约为 37%。由于服务的毛利率几乎是产品的两倍，来自服务的收入更容易转化为净利润。因此，尽管收入仅增长了 2%，该公司去年仍能够将调整后的每股收益增长 11% 至 6.75 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDQ3MzUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODc3OTA2MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F804735%2Fgettyimages-1158779061.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Right now, it appears that the big iPhone upgrade cycle related to Apple Intelligence is not materializing. The company has had some issues with its offering, such as its AI producing inaccurate news alerts. Meanwhile, both iPhone and Android smartphone users in surveys have indicated that that AI features are adding little to no value. Then there is the whole question of whether users will eventually pay for AI subscription services. Right now for Apple, AI seems to be more of a cost without any offsetting revenue benefit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前看来，与苹果智能相关的大规模 iPhone 升级周期并未实现。该公司在其产品上遇到了一些问题，例如其 AI 生成的不准确新闻提醒。同时，调查显示，iPhone 和 Android 智能手机用户都表示 AI 功能几乎没有增加任何价值。还有一个问题是用户是否最终会为 AI 订阅服务付费。对苹果来说，AI 似乎更多的是一种成本，而没有任何抵消的收入收益。</p>
</div><p>The company also hasn't been able to include Apple Intelligence with its smartphones in China. It had already been struggling in the country against local competitors, and according to Counterpoint Research, iPhone sales plunged in China by 18% in Q4. Sales of smartphones from rival Huawei, meanwhile, climbed 15.5% in the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司也未能在中国的智能手机中包含苹果智能。它在与当地竞争对手的竞争中已经面临困难，Counterpoint Research 的数据显示，第四季度 iPhone 在中国的销量下降了 18%。与此同时，竞争对手华为的智能手机销量在该季度增长了 15.5%。</p>
</div><p>Apple initially saw strong iPhone sales in China after it debuted its latest version. However, its AI is not approved in China and it must find a local AI partner to incorporate its technology to run Apple Intelligence in China. Apple mostly competes in the premium smartphone market in China, so the lack of the latest AI technology has left it behind competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在推出最新版本后，最初在中国的 iPhone 销量强劲。然而，其 AI 在中国未获批准，必须找到当地的 AI 合作伙伴，以整合其技术来运行苹果智能。苹果主要在中国的高端智能手机市场竞争，因此缺乏最新的 AI 技术使其落后于竞争对手。</p>
</div><p>Outside of smartphone sales, Apple also faces another big risk related the <strong>Alphabet</strong> antitrust case. Alphabet has been paying Apple an estimated $20 billion a year as part of its revenue-sharing model for Google to be the default search engine for its browser Safari. This revenue is also virtually pure margin, dropping right to operating income. With Alphabet losing its antitrust case and this agreement in jeopardy, the impact it eventually could have on this revenue stream is still very much in the air as the case could lead to some pretty big changes. However, any impact is likely years away as the ruling gets appealed and both companies have reason to try to protect what is currently in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了智能手机销售，苹果还面临与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 反垄断案件相关的另一个重大风险。Alphabet 每年向苹果支付约 200 亿美元，作为其收入分成模型的一部分，使谷歌成为其 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。这笔收入几乎是纯利润，直接进入营业收入。随着 Alphabet 在反垄断案件中失利，这一协议面临风险，最终可能对这一收入来源产生的影响仍然悬而未决，因为该案件可能导致一些重大变化。然而，任何影响可能还需要数年时间，因为裁决正在上诉，两家公司都有理由保护目前的安排。</p>
</div><h2>Expanding valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>扩大估值</h2>
</div><p>Apple stock has seen a lot of multiple expansion in the past several years. Its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has essentially tripled from 12 times to 36 times, while its forward P/E based on current fiscal year estimates is around 30 times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，苹果股票经历了大量的市盈率扩张。其过去的市盈率（P/E）几乎从 12 倍增长到 36 倍，而基于当前财年预期的前瞻市盈率约为 30 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1502d6e0a95530093cf47b0f077b4c05.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1502d6e0a95530093cf47b0f077b4c05.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Some of this multiple expansion can be attributed to the shift toward high-margin services revenue, as these businesses tend to carry higher multiples than hardware businesses. Apple has also proven to be a steady business that tends to have a somewhat predictable, albeit lengthening, replacement cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分市盈率扩张可以归因于向高利润服务收入的转变，因为这些业务通常比硬件业务具有更高的市盈率。苹果也证明了自己是一家稳定的企业，通常具有相对可预测的，尽管延长的，替换周期。</p>
</div><p>That said, with the hope of an iPhone upgrade cycle diminishing and the stock seeing a lot of multiple expansion in the past six years, I think it would be smart to take some profits on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，随着 iPhone 升级周期的希望减弱，以及股票在过去六年中经历了大量的市盈率扩张，我认为在股票上获利了结是明智的选择。</p>
</div>

Apple Receives Rare Underperform Rating from Wall Street Analyst. Is It Time to Sell the Stock?

- Jefferies 将苹果公司评级下调至 “表现不佳”，预计 iPhone 出货量疲软。  
- 调查显示大多数美国消费者对苹果的 AI 功能不感兴趣，可能影响未来销售。  
- 苹果在中国的 iPhone 销售下降 18%，面临来自华为等竞争对手的压力。  

Motley Fool

苹果获得华尔街分析师罕见的 “表现不佳” 评级。现在是卖出股票的时候了吗？