<p>没有很多股票像 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.41%) 一样波动如此剧烈。股价似乎总是在过山车般的起伏中波动。然而，投资者在过去五年中获得了惊人的 1,050% 的收益。</p>
<p>截至 1 月 22 日，这是一家价值 1.3 万亿美元的公司。投资者可能在想未来会是什么样子。这家电动车（EV）股票在五年后会在哪里？</p>
<h2>竞争加剧</h2>
<p>特斯拉因其在过去十年中惊人的增长轨迹而成为粉丝最爱的公司。然而，事情已经显著放缓。归咎于宏观因素，如更高的利率和持续的通货膨胀压力。但这家公司现在似乎正进入其生命周期的新低增长阶段。</p>
<p>2024 年第三季度的收入总计为 252 亿美元。这个数字同比仅增长了 8%，与特斯拉在过去十年中能够实现的两位数销售增长相去甚远。</p>
<p>而在 2024 年全年，特斯拉交付了不到 180 万辆汽车。这与 2023 年相比略有下降。对于一家多年来表现出快速扩张的企业来说，这并不是股东们习惯看到的情况。</p>
<p>除了经济因素，竞争也是影响特斯拉的另一个阻力。它不再是唯一的选择，传统汽车制造商和年轻的新兴企业都在推出自己的电动车型。因此，消费者的选择比以往任何时候都要多。</p>
<h2>不确定的选择性</h2>
<p>虽然特斯拉目前的现实，即增长放缓和激烈竞争，类似于典型的汽车制造商，但一些公司最看好的支持者设想了一个不同的未来，一个以完全自动驾驶（FSD）进展为特征的未来。创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克希望特斯拉有一天能够推出全球机器人出租车服务，产生 “准无限的需求”。</p>
<p>但特斯拉在这方面一贯是过度承诺而未能兑现。显然，将 FSD 推向大众可能仍然遥遥无期，因为需要克服相当大的技术、监管和心理障碍。虽然 FSD 技术对企业来说可能非常有利可图，但这是否会发生仍然是个未知数。</p>
<p>然而，一个亮点是特斯拉的能源生产和存储部门。该部门的收入在第三季度同比增长了 52%，达到了 24 亿美元。管理层甚至表示公司的使命是 “加速全球向可持续能源的转型。” 可以合理预期，随着特斯拉可能成为推动清洁能源采用的政府政策的受益者，这一部门在财务结果中将变得越来越重要。</p>
<h2>故事股票</h2>
<p>特斯拉无疑在过去为投资者创造了巨大的财富。即使是最近，股价在短短三个月内上涨了 91%。不过，估值仍然很高。</p>
<p>股票的市盈率（P/E）为 114。这对于一家仍然主要依靠电动车销售的公司来说，估值极其昂贵。正如我之前提到的，激烈的竞争和宏观因素使得企业在实现投资者习惯的巨大增长方面面临更困难的环境。这也将使得提高盈利能力变得具有挑战性。</p>
<p>更重要的是，FSD 功能的广泛采用似乎仍然遥遥无期。它确实增加了选择性，可能具有价值，但不足以让投资者支付 114 的市盈率。根据目前的情况，我认为特斯拉在 2030 年之前不会超过 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>。预期过高，而有利结果的确定性过低。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票在过去五年中上涨了 1,050%，但由于竞争加剧和宏观经济压力，增长正在放缓。在 2024 年第三季度，收入同比仅增长 8%，而汽车交付量略有下降。尽管一些投资者希望全自动驾驶技术能够取得进展，但仍然面临重大障碍。特斯拉的能源部门正在增长，但公司高达 114 的市盈率引发了对其估值的担忧。总体而言，考虑到当前的挑战，对特斯拉在 2030 年之前的表现预期可能过于乐观</p>

<p>There aren't a lot of stocks out there that are as volatile as <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.41%) has been. Shares seem to always be bouncing around like a roller-coaster ride. Nonetheless, investors have been rewarded with a monster 1,050% gain in the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有很多股票像 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.41%) 一样波动如此剧烈。股价似乎总是在过山车般的起伏中波动。然而，投资者在过去五年中获得了惊人的 1,050% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>This is a $1.3 trillion dollar company as of Jan. 22. Investors are probably wondering what the future looks like. Where will this electric vehicle (EV) stock be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 1 月 22 日，这是一家价值 1.3 万亿美元的公司。投资者可能在想未来会是什么样子。这家电动车（EV）股票在五年后会在哪里？</p>
</div><h2>Heightened competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>竞争加剧</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has become a fan favorite because of its tremendous growth trajectory for much of the past decade. However, things have slowed down dramatically. Blame it on macro forces, like higher interest rates and ongoing inflationary pressures. But this is now a business that appears to be entering a new, lower-growth stage of its lifecycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉因其在过去十年中惊人的增长轨迹而成为粉丝最爱的公司。然而，事情已经显著放缓。归咎于宏观因素，如更高的利率和持续的通货膨胀压力。但这家公司现在似乎正进入其生命周期的新低增长阶段。</p>
</div><p>Revenue in the third quarter of 2024 totaled $25.2 billion. That figure was up just 8% year over year, a far cry from the monster double-digit sales gains Tesla has been able to hit throughout the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第三季度的收入总计为 252 亿美元。这个数字同比仅增长了 8%，与特斯拉在过去十年中能够实现的两位数销售增长相去甚远。</p>
</div><p>And for all of 2024, Tesla delivered just under 1.8 million vehicles. This was a slight dip compared to 2023. For a business that has exhibited rapid expansion over the years, this isn't something shareholders are used to seeing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而在 2024 年全年，特斯拉交付了不到 180 万辆汽车。这与 2023 年相比略有下降。对于一家多年来表现出快速扩张的企业来说，这并不是股东们习惯看到的情况。</p>
</div><p>Besides economic factors, competition is another headwind impacting Tesla. It's no longer the only game in town, with legacy automakers and younger upstarts all launching their own EV models. As a result, consumers have more choice than they ever had before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了经济因素，竞争也是影响特斯拉的另一个阻力。它不再是唯一的选择，传统汽车制造商和年轻的新兴企业都在推出自己的电动车型。因此，消费者的选择比以往任何时候都要多。</p>
</div><h2>Uncertain optionality</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不确定的选择性</h2>
</div><p>While Tesla's current reality, namely slower growth and intense competition, resembles that of a typical automaker, some of the company's most bullish supporters envision a different future, one that's characterized by full self-driving (FSD) advancements. The hope is that Tesla can one day launch a global robotaxi service that generates &#34;quasi-infinite demand,&#34; according to founder and CEO Elon Musk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特斯拉目前的现实，即增长放缓和激烈竞争，类似于典型的汽车制造商，但一些公司最看好的支持者设想了一个不同的未来，一个以完全自动驾驶（FSD）进展为特征的未来。创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克希望特斯拉有一天能够推出全球机器人出租车服务，产生 “准无限的需求”。</p>
</div><p>But Tesla has consistently overpromised and underdelivered in this regard. It's evident that bringing FSD to the masses might still be a long way away, as there are sizable technological, regulatory, and psychological hurdles to overcome. While FSD tech could be very lucrative for the business, it's anyone's guess if this will ever happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特斯拉在这方面一贯是过度承诺而未能兑现。显然，将 FSD 推向大众可能仍然遥遥无期，因为需要克服相当大的技术、监管和心理障碍。虽然 FSD 技术对企业来说可能非常有利可图，但这是否会发生仍然是个未知数。</p>
</div><p>One bright spot, however, is Tesla's energy generation and storage segment. Revenue here jumped 52% year over year to $2.4 billion in Q3. Management even says that the company's mission is &#34;to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.&#34; It's definitely reasonable to expect this segment to become more important to financial results over time, particularly as Tesla could be a beneficiary of government policies that propel adoption of clean energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一个亮点是特斯拉的能源生产和存储部门。该部门的收入在第三季度同比增长了 52%，达到了 24 亿美元。管理层甚至表示公司的使命是 “加速全球向可持续能源的转型。” 可以合理预期，随着特斯拉可能成为推动清洁能源采用的政府政策的受益者，这一部门在财务结果中将变得越来越重要。</p>
</div><h2>Story stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>故事股票</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has undoubtedly been a wildly successful wealth builder for investors in the past. Even recently, the stock has surged 91% in just the last three months. The valuation remains steep, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉无疑在过去为投资者创造了巨大的财富。即使是最近，股价在短短三个月内上涨了 91%。不过，估值仍然很高。</p>
</div><p>Shares trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 114. That's an incredibly expensive valuation for a company that still brings in the vast majority of its sales from EVs. As I noted earlier, intense competition and macro factors have created a more difficult environment for the business to register the huge growth investors have become accustomed to. And this will also make it challenging to post improving profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的市盈率（P/E）为 114。这对于一家仍然主要依靠电动车销售的公司来说，估值极其昂贵。正如我之前提到的，激烈的竞争和宏观因素使得企业在实现投资者习惯的巨大增长方面面临更困难的环境。这也将使得提高盈利能力变得具有挑战性。</p>
</div><p>What's more, broad adoption of FSD capabilities still seems like a very long way away. It does add optionality, which might have value, but not so much to warrant that investors pay a P/E ratio of 114. Based on the current setup, I don't believe Tesla will beat the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> index between now and 2030. Expectations are way too high, and the certainty of a favorable outcome is way too low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，FSD 功能的广泛采用似乎仍然遥遥无期。它确实增加了选择性，可能具有价值，但不足以让投资者支付 114 的市盈率。根据目前的情况，我认为特斯拉在 2030 年之前不会超过 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>。预期过高，而有利结果的确定性过低。</p>
</div>

Where Will Tesla Be in 5 Years?

- 特斯拉股价波动大，过去五年涨幅达 1,050%。
- 2024 年第三季度收入为 252 亿美元，同比增长仅 8%。
- 竞争加剧和经济因素使特斯拉面临增长放缓的挑战。

特斯拉五年后会处于什么位置？