<p>过去几年，科技股最大的市场驱动力之一是人工智能（AI）领域的快速进展。这些下一代算法相较于其前身取得了巨大的飞跃，承诺能够简化流程并提高生产力。许多大型科技公司正在大量投资，以抢占这一技术的先机。</p>
<p>但一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司可能颠覆了关于如何最佳训练 AI 模型的传统思维。因此，周一一系列 AI 股票暴跌。以 AI 为中心的芯片制造商 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -15.79%) 暴跌 17.3%，半导体专家 <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO -16.73%) 下跌 16.4%，云计算和软件巨头 <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -3.80%) 下滑 3.8%，云计算和搜索巨头 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -3.14%)(GOOG -3.03%) 下跌 2.8%，截至美国东部时间上午 11:43。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDUzOTQvYW4tYW5ncnktcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtaGFuZHMtb3V0c3RyZXRjaGVkLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1jb21wdXRlci1tb25pdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDUzOTQvYW4tYW5ncnktcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtaGFuZHMtb3V0c3RyZXRjaGVkLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1jb21wdXRlci1tb25pdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>进入 DeepSeek</h2>
<p>一年前成立的中国初创公司 DeepSeek 推出了其最新的 AI 模型，名为 R1，其能力让科技界许多人感到意外。该系统的性能与 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 相似，迅速跻身全球前十名。根据该公司的说法，这些结果更为引人注目的是，它们是在成本更低的老一代处理器上实现的。</p>
<p>DeepSeek 通过采用一种新的训练 AI 模型的方法取得了这些显著的成果。这个过程被称为强化学习——或奖励驱动优化——似乎更擅长于优化其解决问题的策略或尝试不同的方法以实现预期结果。</p>
<p>迄今为止，AI 面临的最大挑战之一是无法知道算法是如何得出特定结论的，这使得它们成为一个 “黑箱”。DeepSeek 的 R1 模型展示了其工作过程，从而消除了不确定性。</p>
<p>风险投资家和知名科技爱好者 Marc Andreessen 在本周末在 X（前身为 Twitter）上发帖称：“DeepSeek R1 是我见过的最惊人和令人印象深刻的突破之一——作为开源，这是对世界的深刻馈赠。”</p>
<p>需要明确的是，专家表示 DeepSeek 的 R1 仍然落后于 OpenAI 和 Alphabet 所生产模型的性能能力，但它能够在数量较少且性能较差的芯片上实现这一点，威胁到了现有的范式。</p>
<h2>潜在影响</h2>
<p>AI 股票和更广泛的科技行业在这一消息下暴跌，受到行业潜在影响的冲击：</p>
<ul>
<li>Nvidia 是用于训练和运行 AI 系统的图形处理单元（GPU）的黄金标准和领先供应商。根据半导体分析公司 TechInsights 的说法，该公司被认为控制了高达 98% 的数据中心 GPU 市场。如果 AI 模型可以在成本更低、性能较差的芯片上进行训练，Nvidia 将面临巨大的损失。</li>
<li>Broadcom 提供许多与数据中心芯片并行工作的网络产品。该公司的以太网交换机和应用特定集成电路（ASIC）帮助促进数据的传输。如果对这些高端芯片的需求减弱，Broadcom 的附属产品销售也可能受到影响。</li>
<li>Microsoft 通过对 OpenAI 的 130 亿美元投资以及在其产品和服务中整合 AI 能力，帮助启动了 AI 革命。该公司最近宣布计划在未来一年内在数据中心投资 800 亿美元。如果有更具成本效益的方法，客户可能不愿意为 Microsoft 的解决方案支付高价。</li>
<li>Alphabet 也是迅速行动的公司之一，重金开发下一代 AI 模型以服务其 Google Cloud 客户。与 Microsoft 类似，如果有更便宜的替代方案，Alphabet 的业绩可能会受到影响。</li>
</ul>
<p>尽管如此，资深 Wedbush 科技分析师 Dan Ives 称今天的抛售是一个 “黄金买入机会”，指出初创公司提出的许多主张尚未得到验证。他进一步表示，“没有一家美国全球 2000 强公司会使用中国初创公司 DeepSeek 来启动他们的 AI 基础设施”，并称这并不构成 “竞争威胁”。</p>
<p>进一步加剧这些股票下跌的是它们的高估值，至少在使用最常用的指标进行衡量时。在今天的交易开始前，Broadcom、Nvidia 和 Microsoft 的市盈率分别为 200 倍、56 倍和 37 倍。Alphabet 则是个例外，以 27 倍的市盈率折价出售。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，虽然市盈率（P/E）是最广泛使用的估值指标之一，但在评估高增长股票时往往显得不足。经过今天的下跌，Nvidia、Microsoft、Broadcom 和 Alphabet 的前瞻性市盈率分别为 41 倍、33 倍、33 倍和 22 倍——因此它们并不像乍一看那样昂贵。</p>
<p>最后，生成 AI 的发展仍处于早期阶段。今天是一些投资者在需要更谨慎的情况下做出反应的典型例子。我们这四只股票都有着数十年的出色业绩，尽管跟随人群并屈服于市场恐慌可能很诱人，但精明的投资者会知道在做出可能代价高昂的结论之前，等待所有证据的到来是明智的。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

博通

英伟达

<p>英伟达、博通、微软和谷歌因 DeepSeek 推出的 AI 模型 R1 而遭遇显著股价下跌，该模型在使用较旧、成本更低的处理器时超出了预期。英伟达的股价下跌了 17.3%，博通下跌了 16.4%，微软下跌了 3.8%，谷歌下跌了 2.8%。分析师指出，尽管 DeepSeek 的声明尚未得到验证，但低成本 AI 解决方案的潜力对这些公司构成威胁。尽管出现抛售，一些分析师将其视为买入机会，指出这些科技股的高估值</p>

<p>One of the biggest market drivers of technology stocks over the past couple of years has been rapid advancements in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). These next-generation algorithms took a giant leap forward from their predecessors, promising to streamline processes and improve productivity. Many big tech companies have been spending heavily to get a jump on the technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年，科技股最大的市场驱动力之一是人工智能（AI）领域的快速进展。这些下一代算法相较于其前身取得了巨大的飞跃，承诺能够简化流程并提高生产力。许多大型科技公司正在大量投资，以抢占这一技术的先机。</p>
</div><p>But a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek may have just upended conventional thinking about how best to train AI models. As a result, a slew of AI stocks tumbled on Monday. AI-centric chipmaker <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -15.79%) crashed 17.3%, semiconductor specialist <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO -16.73%) crumbled 16.4%, cloud and software giant <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -3.80%) slumped 3.8%, and cloud computing and search titan <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -3.14%)(GOOG -3.03%) fell 2.8%, as of 11:43 a.m. ET.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司可能颠覆了关于如何最佳训练 AI 模型的传统思维。因此，周一一系列 AI 股票暴跌。以 AI 为中心的芯片制造商 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -15.79%) 暴跌 17.3%，半导体专家 <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO -16.73%) 下跌 16.4%，云计算和软件巨头 <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -3.80%) 下滑 3.8%，云计算和搜索巨头 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -3.14%)(GOOG -3.03%) 下跌 2.8%，截至美国东部时间上午 11:43。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDUzOTQvYW4tYW5ncnktcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtaGFuZHMtb3V0c3RyZXRjaGVkLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1jb21wdXRlci1tb25pdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805394%2Fan-angry-person-with-hands-outstretched-looking-at-a-computer-monitor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Enter DeepSeek</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>进入 DeepSeek</h2>
</div><p>One-year-old Chinese start-up DeepSeek introduced its latest AI model, dubbed R1, and its abilities caught many in the tech world off guard. The performance of the system, which is similar to OpenAI's ChatGPT, quickly ascended the ranks to become one of the top 10 in the world. What made these results even more striking was that they were achieved with older-generation processors at a much lower cost, according to the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一年前成立的中国初创公司 DeepSeek 推出了其最新的 AI 模型，名为 R1，其能力让科技界许多人感到意外。该系统的性能与 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 相似，迅速跻身全球前十名。根据该公司的说法，这些结果更为引人注目的是，它们是在成本更低的老一代处理器上实现的。</p>
</div><p>DeepSeek achieved these remarkable results by taking a new approach to training its AI models. The process, known as reinforcement learning -- or reward-driven optimization -- appears to be more adept at refining its strategy for problem-solving or attempting different approaches to achieve the desired results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DeepSeek 通过采用一种新的训练 AI 模型的方法取得了这些显著的成果。这个过程被称为强化学习——或奖励驱动优化——似乎更擅长于优化其解决问题的策略或尝试不同的方法以实现预期结果。</p>
</div><p>Thus far, one of the biggest challenges with AI is not knowing how the algorithms arrived at a particular conclusion, making them a &#34;black box.&#34; DeepSeek's R1 model shows its work, thus eliminating the uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迄今为止，AI 面临的最大挑战之一是无法知道算法是如何得出特定结论的，这使得它们成为一个 “黑箱”。DeepSeek 的 R1 模型展示了其工作过程，从而消除了不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Venture capitalist and well-known tech aficionado Marc Andreessen fueled the fire this weekend when he posted on X (formerly Twitter) that &#34;DeepSeek R1 is one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I've ever seen -- and as open source, a profound gift to the world.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险投资家和知名科技爱好者 Marc Andreessen 在本周末在 X（前身为 Twitter）上发帖称：“DeepSeek R1 是我见过的最惊人和令人印象深刻的突破之一——作为开源，这是对世界的深刻馈赠。”</p>
</div><p>To be clear, experts say that DeepSeek's R1 still trails the performance capability of models produced by OpenAI and Alphabet, but the fact that it was able to do so with a smaller number of inferior chips threatened to upend the existing paradigm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，专家表示 DeepSeek 的 R1 仍然落后于 OpenAI 和 Alphabet 所生产模型的性能能力，但它能够在数量较少且性能较差的芯片上实现这一点，威胁到了现有的范式。</p>
</div><h2>The potential implications</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潜在影响</h2>
</div><p>AI stocks and the broader tech sector plunged on the news, reeling from the potential implications for the industry:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 股票和更广泛的科技行业在这一消息下暴跌，受到行业潜在影响的冲击：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Nvidia is the gold standard and leading provider of the graphics processing units (GPUs) used to train and run AI systems. The company is believed to control as much as 98% of the data center GPU market, according to semiconductor analyst firm TechInsights. If AI models can be trained on lower-cost, inferior chips, Nvidia has a lot to lose.</li>
<li>Broadcom supplies many of the networking products that work side-by-side with chips in the data center. The company's Ethernet switching and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) help facilitate the movement of data. If demand for these high-end chips falters, sales of ancillary products -- like those in Broadcom's arsenal -- could suffer as well.</li>
<li>Microsoft helped kick-start the AI revolution with its hefty $13 billion investment in OpenAI and by integrating its AI capabilities across its suite of products and services. The company recently announced plans to spend $80 billion on data centers over the coming year. If there's a more cost-effective approach, customers might not be as willing to fork over top dollar for Microsoft's solutions.</li>
<li>Alphabet was another company that was quick off the mark, spending heavily to develop next-generation AI models for its Google Cloud customers. Like Microsoft, if there are less costly alternatives, Alphabet's results could suffer.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Nvidia 是用于训练和运行 AI 系统的图形处理单元（GPU）的黄金标准和领先供应商。根据半导体分析公司 TechInsights 的说法，该公司被认为控制了高达 98% 的数据中心 GPU 市场。如果 AI 模型可以在成本更低、性能较差的芯片上进行训练，Nvidia 将面临巨大的损失。</li>
<li>Broadcom 提供许多与数据中心芯片并行工作的网络产品。该公司的以太网交换机和应用特定集成电路（ASIC）帮助促进数据的传输。如果对这些高端芯片的需求减弱，Broadcom 的附属产品销售也可能受到影响。</li>
<li>Microsoft 通过对 OpenAI 的 130 亿美元投资以及在其产品和服务中整合 AI 能力，帮助启动了 AI 革命。该公司最近宣布计划在未来一年内在数据中心投资 800 亿美元。如果有更具成本效益的方法，客户可能不愿意为 Microsoft 的解决方案支付高价。</li>
<li>Alphabet 也是迅速行动的公司之一，重金开发下一代 AI 模型以服务其 Google Cloud 客户。与 Microsoft 类似，如果有更便宜的替代方案，Alphabet 的业绩可能会受到影响。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>That said, veteran Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives called today's sell-off a &#34;golden buying opportunity,&#34; noting that many of the claims by the start-up have yet to be verified. He goes on to suggest that &#34;no U.S. Global 2000 [company] is going to use a Chinese start-up DeepSeek to launch their AI infrastructure,&#34; saying it doesn't rise to the level of &#34;competitive threat.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，资深 Wedbush 科技分析师 Dan Ives 称今天的抛售是一个 “黄金买入机会”，指出初创公司提出的许多主张尚未得到验证。他进一步表示，“没有一家美国全球 2000 强公司会使用中国初创公司 DeepSeek 来启动他们的 AI 基础设施”，并称这并不构成 “竞争威胁”。</p>
</div><p>Further fueling the decline of some of these stocks is their higher valuations, at least when measured using the most commonly employed metrics. Heading into today's trading, Broadcom, Nvidia, and Microsoft were selling for 200 times, 56 times, and 37 times earnings, respectively. Alphabet was the outlier, selling for a discount at 27 times earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步加剧这些股票下跌的是它们的高估值，至少在使用最常用的指标进行衡量时。在今天的交易开始前，Broadcom、Nvidia 和 Microsoft 的市盈率分别为 200 倍、56 倍和 37 倍。Alphabet 则是个例外，以 27 倍的市盈率折价出售。</p>
</div><p>It's important to note that while the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is among the most widely used valuation metric, it tends to fall short when assessing high-growth stocks. After today's decline, Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, and Alphabet are selling for 41 times, 33 times, 33 times, and 22 times <em>forward</em> earnings -- so they're not nearly as expensive as they might appear at first glance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，虽然市盈率（P/E）是最广泛使用的估值指标之一，但在评估高增长股票时往往显得不足。经过今天的下跌，Nvidia、Microsoft、Broadcom 和 Alphabet 的前瞻性市盈率分别为 41 倍、33 倍、33 倍和 22 倍——因此它们并不像乍一看那样昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Finally, it's still early days in the development of generative AI. Today is a prime example of a knee-jerk reaction from some investors when a more measured approach is called for. Each of our quartet of stocks has an impressive track record going back decades, and while it may be tempting to follow the crowd and give in to the market panic, astute investors will know to wait for all the evidence to come in before leaping to what could be a costly conclusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，生成 AI 的发展仍处于早期阶段。今天是一些投资者在需要更谨慎的情况下做出反应的典型例子。我们这四只股票都有着数十年的出色业绩，尽管跟随人群并屈服于市场恐慌可能很诱人，但精明的投资者会知道在做出可能代价高昂的结论之前，等待所有证据的到来是明智的。</p>
</div>

Why Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Other Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Crashed Monday Morning

- 中国初创公司 DeepSeek 推出新 AI 模型 R1，震惊科技界。  
- 该模型以低成本和旧处理器实现了卓越性能，威胁到现有市场格局。  
- 受此影响，Nvidia、Broadcom、Microsoft 和 Alphabet 的股价大幅下跌。  

为什么英伟达、博通、微软和其他人工智能（AI）股票在周一早上暴跌