<p>在金融界，&#34;七大奇迹&#34;这一术语是一个有趣的称谓，用于统称全球最大的人工智能（AI）股票：<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Tesla</strong>。</p>
<p>在这一群体中，Meta 和 Tesla 的市值排名最低。虽然这些万亿市值的股票都有一些可能推动长期增长的 AI 助力因素，但我认为 2025 年对 Meta 来说可能是一个具有挑战性的一年。</p>
<p>我将深入探讨一个涉及 Meta 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>（AVGO -17.40%）的独特情境，并阐述为什么到年底 Broadcom 可能会成为更有价值的公司。</p>
<h2>Meta 刚刚发布了一项重大公告</h2>
<p>去年 12 月，Wedbush 的科技研究分析师 Dan Ives 发布了一份简短的报告，概述了他对 2025 年的市场预测。该列表上的一项预测是，今年将有 1 万亿美元用于与 AI 相关的基础设施支出。</p>
<p>好吧，在新年不到一个月的时间里，我认为 Ives 可能是对的。在过去几周，许多科技巨头纷纷表态，明确表示 2025 年将是一个涉及重大资本支出（capex）投资的年份。</p>
<p>仅 Microsoft 就预计 2025 年在数据中心的基础设施支出将达到 800 亿美元；与此同时，OpenAI、<strong>Oracle</strong> 和 <strong>SoftBank</strong> 正在特朗普总统领导下主导新宣布的 Stargate 计划——一个旨在未来几年内投资 5000 亿美元于 AI 框架的项目。</p>
<p>就在几天前，Meta 宣布它将与其大型科技同行一起进行一场支出狂潮。根据报道，Meta 计划在今年在包括芯片、数据中心和服务器等多个基础设施需求上支出 600 亿到 650 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDUyOTgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItc2VydmVycy0xODA5NjYwMTQ4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDUyOTgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItc2VydmVycy0xODA5NjYwMTQ4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>我认为这笔 AI 支出将在短期内给 Meta 带来压力的原因</h2>
<p>从表面上看，你可能会认为 Meta 对 AI 路线图的承诺是件好事。虽然我同意这种看法，但有一个警告：我认为 Meta 将在未来成为全球领先的 AI 企业之一……但在短期内，我预测 650 亿美元的基础设施项目将给马克·扎克伯格和他的执行领导团队带来重大压力。为什么？因为人们不会忘记过去。</p>
<p>让我解释一下我的意思。2021 年 10 月 28 日，Meta 将其名称从 Facebook 更改为 Meta Platforms。这一时刻标志着公司主要关注领域的转变——从社交媒体应用扩展到更深层次的虚拟现实参与。这一概念被称为元宇宙，曾一度成为投资界热议的话题。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb6b57c8b5c0a48c81b73da17c0a1304.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb6b57c8b5c0a48c81b73da17c0a1304.png"/></p>
<p>META 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>在图表中，我展示了 Meta 股票价格、自由现金流和资本支出投资自 2021 年 10 月名称更改至 2022 年底的百分比变化。所描绘的动态清楚表明：公司的元宇宙支出显著上升，以至于其盈利能力特征变得极为漫长。毫不奇怪，投资者对这种反向关系并不感到兴奋，Meta 股票暴跌超过 60%。</p>
<h2>Meta 的巨额 AI 账单可能让 Broadcom 感到高兴</h2>
<p>在大多数情况下，七大奇迹公司主导着与 AI 相关的任何言论。但在过去的几年里，Broadcom 安静地成为 AI 领域中更具影响力的参与者之一。原因在于，许多全球领先的 AI 企业在很大程度上依赖于 Broadcom 的网络和基础设施解决方案。</p>
<p>Broadcom 提供一系列产品，从云安全、半导体、网络设备等应有尽有。如果你在投资数据中心基础设施，Broadcom 很可能在某个环节参与其中。</p>
<p>根据 <em>DigiTimes</em> 和 <em>TechRadar</em> 的报道，Meta 被传闻是 Broadcom 定制应用特定集成电路（ASIC）芯片的主要客户。在我看来，Meta 今年的资本支出应作为 Broadcom AI 业务的风向标。</p>
<h2>为什么 Broadcom 可能在 2025 年超越 Meta</h2>
<p>截至目前，Meta 的市值为 1.6 万亿美元，约比 Broadcom 的 1.1 万亿美元估值高出 14%。</p>
<p>虽然 14% 的股价上涨相当重要，但我认为这在今年是有可能的。毕竟，该公司的股票在 2024 年上涨了 108%——那是 Broadcom 开始受益于 AI 基础设施支出上升的第一年。</p>
<p>在我看来，Broadcom 的时刻已经到来，只要超大规模企业继续致力于数据中心的建设，该公司就应该会经历一些显著的顺风。</p>
<p>考虑到几年前的元宇宙风波，我不禁认为投资者今年将高度关注 Meta 的支出和现金流状况。如果盈利能力出现任何问题，Meta 的股票可能会开始大幅下跌。</p>
<p>此外，即使 Meta 设法在这笔巨额资本支出预算的背景下加速收入和收益，投资者也很难知道什么样的增长率会被视为可接受，因为现在的预期极高，公司面临着执行的压力。</p>
<p>基础设施支出的上升对 Broadcom 的增长前景是个好兆头；然而，矛盾的是，这些动态可能会对 Meta 短期内的股价上涨构成阻力。因此，我认为到年底，Broadcom 可能会成为比 Meta 更有价值的股票。</p>

博通

<p>这篇文章讨论了关于人工智能股票未来价值的预测，特别关注 Meta 和博通。文章强调了主要科技公司计划的大规模资本支出，包括 Meta 预计在 2025 年用于人工智能基础设施的 600 亿到 650 亿美元的支出。作者指出，尽管 Meta 旨在成为领先的人工智能企业，但其巨额投资可能会对盈利能力造成压力，尤其是考虑到其在品牌重塑后的过去挣扎。相比之下，博通作为人工智能基础设施的供应商，由于其强劲的表现和对人工智能投资的依赖，可能在 2025 年超越 Meta 的市场价值</p>

<p>In the financial world, the term &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; is a fun moniker used to collectively refer to the largest artificial intelligence (AI) stocks in the world: <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在金融界，&#34;七大奇迹&#34;这一术语是一个有趣的称谓，用于统称全球最大的人工智能（AI）股票：<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Tesla</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Among this cohort, Meta and Tesla capture the two bottom spots as measured by market cap. While each of these trillion-dollar stocks have a number of AI tailwinds that could fuel growth in the long run, I see 2025 as a potentially challenging year for Meta in particular.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一群体中，Meta 和 Tesla 的市值排名最低。虽然这些万亿市值的股票都有一些可能推动长期增长的 AI 助力因素，但我认为 2025 年对 Meta 来说可能是一个具有挑战性的一年。</p>
</div><p>I'm going to dig into the details of a rather unique scenario involving Meta and <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO -17.40%) and make the case for why Broadcom could emerge as the more valuable company by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我将深入探讨一个涉及 Meta 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>（AVGO -17.40%）的独特情境，并阐述为什么到年底 Broadcom 可能会成为更有价值的公司。</p>
</div><h2>Meta just made a major announcement</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Meta 刚刚发布了一项重大公告</h2>
</div><p>Back in December, Wedbush technology research analyst Dan Ives published a brief report outlining his market predictions in 2025. One item on this list was a forecast calling for $1 trillion of AI-related infrastructure spend just this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年 12 月，Wedbush 的科技研究分析师 Dan Ives 发布了一份简短的报告，概述了他对 2025 年的市场预测。该列表上的一项预测是，今年将有 1 万亿美元用于与 AI 相关的基础设施支出。</p>
</div><p>Well, less than one month into the new year, I think Ives just might be right. Over the last few weeks, many tech titans have stepped up and made clear that 2025 is going to be a year involving significant capital expenditure (capex) investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好吧，在新年不到一个月的时间里，我认为 Ives 可能是对的。在过去几周，许多科技巨头纷纷表态，明确表示 2025 年将是一个涉及重大资本支出（capex）投资的年份。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft alone is projecting $80 billion of infrastructure spend for data centers in 2025; meanwhile, OpenAI, <strong>Oracle</strong>, and <strong>SoftBank</strong> are leading the newly announced Stargate initiative under President Trump -- a project aiming to invest $500 billion into AI frameworks over the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅 Microsoft 就预计 2025 年在数据中心的基础设施支出将达到 800 亿美元；与此同时，OpenAI、<strong>Oracle</strong> 和 <strong>SoftBank</strong> 正在特朗普总统领导下主导新宣布的 Stargate 计划——一个旨在未来几年内投资 5000 亿美元于 AI 框架的项目。</p>
</div><p>Just days ago, Meta announced that it's joining its megacap tech peers with a spending spree of its own. According to reports, Meta plans to spend between $60 billion to $65 billion in capex this year across a number of infrastructure needs, including chips, data centers, and servers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在几天前，Meta 宣布它将与其大型科技同行一起进行一场支出狂潮。根据报道，Meta 计划在今年在包括芯片、数据中心和服务器等多个基础设施需求上支出 600 亿到 650 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDUyOTgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItc2VydmVycy0xODA5NjYwMTQ4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805298%2Fdata-center-servers-1809660148.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why I think this AI spend will put pressure on Meta in the near term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我认为这笔 AI 支出将在短期内给 Meta 带来压力的原因</h2>
</div><p>On the surface, you might think Meta's commitment to an AI roadmap is a good thing. While I agree with this sentiment, there is a caveat: I think Meta will become one of the leading AI enterprises in the world down the road... but in the near term, I'm predicting that a $65 billion infrastructure project is going to put some major pressure on Mark Zuckerberg and his executive leadership team. Why? Because people don't forget the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，你可能会认为 Meta 对 AI 路线图的承诺是件好事。虽然我同意这种看法，但有一个警告：我认为 Meta 将在未来成为全球领先的 AI 企业之一……但在短期内，我预测 650 亿美元的基础设施项目将给马克·扎克伯格和他的执行领导团队带来重大压力。为什么？因为人们不会忘记过去。</p>
</div><p>Allow me to explain what I mean by that. On Oct. 28, 2021, Meta changed its name from Facebook to Meta Platforms. This moment marked a shift in the company's primary focus areas -- expanding from social media applications to a deeper form of engagement in leveraging virtual reality. This concept is known as the metaverse, and for a hot minute, it became all the investment world could talk about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我解释一下我的意思。2021 年 10 月 28 日，Meta 将其名称从 Facebook 更改为 Meta Platforms。这一时刻标志着公司主要关注领域的转变——从社交媒体应用扩展到更深层次的虚拟现实参与。这一概念被称为元宇宙，曾一度成为投资界热议的话题。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb6b57c8b5c0a48c81b73da17c0a1304.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb6b57c8b5c0a48c81b73da17c0a1304.png"/></p>
<p>META data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>In the chart, I've illustrated the percentage changes among Meta's stock price, free cash flow, and capex investments from its name change in October 2021 through the end of 2022. The dynamics depicted make one thing quite clear: The company's metaverse spend rose significantly, so much so that its profitability profile became extremely protracted. Unsurprisingly, investors weren't thrilled with this inverse relationship, and Meta stock tanked by more than 60%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在图表中，我展示了 Meta 股票价格、自由现金流和资本支出投资自 2021 年 10 月名称更改至 2022 年底的百分比变化。所描绘的动态清楚表明：公司的元宇宙支出显著上升，以至于其盈利能力特征变得极为漫长。毫不奇怪，投资者对这种反向关系并不感到兴奋，Meta 股票暴跌超过 60%。</p>
</div><h2>Meta's hefty AI bill could be music to Broadcom's ears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Meta 的巨额 AI 账单可能让 Broadcom 感到高兴</h2>
</div><p>For the most part, Magnificent Seven companies dominate any rhetoric related to AI. But for the last couple of years, Broadcom has quietly become one of the more influential players in the AI arena. The reason for this is that many of the world's leading AI businesses rely heavily on Broadcom's networking and infrastructure solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大多数情况下，七大奇迹公司主导着与 AI 相关的任何言论。但在过去的几年里，Broadcom 安静地成为 AI 领域中更具影响力的参与者之一。原因在于，许多全球领先的 AI 企业在很大程度上依赖于 Broadcom 的网络和基础设施解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom offers a host of products ranging from cloud security, semiconductors, networking equipment, and much more. If you're investing in data center infrastructure, odds are Broadcom is involved somewhere along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Broadcom 提供一系列产品，从云安全、半导体、网络设备等应有尽有。如果你在投资数据中心基础设施，Broadcom 很可能在某个环节参与其中。</p>
</div><p>According to reports out of <em>DigiTimes</em> and <em>TechRadar</em>, Meta is rumored to be a major customer of Broadcom's custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chips. To me, Meta's capex spend this year should serve as a bellwether for Broadcom's AI business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <em>DigiTimes</em> 和 <em>TechRadar</em> 的报道，Meta 被传闻是 Broadcom 定制应用特定集成电路（ASIC）芯片的主要客户。在我看来，Meta 今年的资本支出应作为 Broadcom AI 业务的风向标。</p>
</div><h2>Why Broadcom could eclipse Meta in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 Broadcom 可能在 2025 年超越 Meta</h2>
</div><p>As of this writing, Meta's market capitalization of $1.6 trillion is about 14% higher than Broadcom's valuation of $1.1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，Meta 的市值为 1.6 万亿美元，约比 Broadcom 的 1.1 万亿美元估值高出 14%。</p>
</div><p>While a 14% share price increase is quite meaningful, I think it's within the realm of possibility for Broadcom this year. After all, the company's shares gained 108% in 2024 -- and that was really the first year Broadcom started benefiting from rising AI infrastructure spend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 14% 的股价上涨相当重要，但我认为这在今年是有可能的。毕竟，该公司的股票在 2024 年上涨了 108%——那是 Broadcom 开始受益于 AI 基础设施支出上升的第一年。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, Broadcom's moment has arrived, and so long as hyperscalers remain committed to data center build-outs, the company should experience some meaningful tailwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，Broadcom 的时刻已经到来，只要超大规模企业继续致力于数据中心的建设，该公司就应该会经历一些显著的顺风。</p>
</div><p>I can't help but think investors will be laser-focused on Meta's spend and cash flow profiles this year, given the metaverse debacle from a few years ago. Should there be any signs of a hiccup regarding profitability, Meta's stock could start selling off in a meaningful way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到几年前的元宇宙风波，我不禁认为投资者今年将高度关注 Meta 的支出和现金流状况。如果盈利能力出现任何问题，Meta 的股票可能会开始大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, even if Meta manages to accelerate revenue and earnings in light of this hefty capex budget, it's hard to know what growth rates will be considered acceptable by investors, now that expectations are exceedingly high and the pressure is on for the company to execute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，即使 Meta 设法在这笔巨额资本支出预算的背景下加速收入和收益，投资者也很难知道什么样的增长率会被视为可接受，因为现在的预期极高，公司面临着执行的压力。</p>
</div><p>Rising infrastructure spend bodes well for Broadcom's growth prospects this year; yet paradoxically, these dynamics could represent a headwind to Meta's near-term share price appreciation. For these reasons, I think Broadcom could become a more valuable stock than Meta by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基础设施支出的上升对 Broadcom 的增长前景是个好兆头；然而，矛盾的是，这些动态可能会对 Meta 短期内的股价上涨构成阻力。因此，我认为到年底，Broadcom 可能会成为比 Meta 更有价值的股票。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Be Worth More Than Meta in 2025

- "Magnificent Seven"指的是全球最大的 AI 股票，包括 Meta 和 Tesla。  
- Meta 计划在 2025 年支出 600 亿至 650 亿美元用于基础设施。  
- Broadcom 可能因 Meta 的支出而受益，预计其市值将超过 Meta。

预测：这只人工智能（AI）股票将在 2025 年的价值超过 Meta Platforms