<p>关于人工智能（AI）领域最近的发展可能对未来产生巨大影响，有一个令人信服的论点。在过去的几年里，生成式 AI 的进步助推了一个蓬勃发展的牛市，承诺显著提高生产力。潜在的利润激增使得公司们争相采用这些下一代算法。</p>
<p>受益于这些长期趋势的最大赢家之一是 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 8.93%）。该公司的图形处理单元（GPU）最初是为游戏应用开发的，但同样适用于提供 AI 所需的计算能力。这些处理器的强劲销售推动了股价的抛物线式上涨，使 Nvidia 的股票在过去两年中上涨了超过 500%。</p>
<p>然而，中国初创公司 DeepSeek 所做的声明威胁到了现有的格局，使 Nvidia 陷入困境。该股在一天内下跌了 17%，市值损失近 6000 亿美元。尽管如此，经过一夜的沉淀，华尔街对此事有了一些看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU2NDUvYS1wZXJzb24tb24tdGhlLXBob25lLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLW1vdmVtZW50LW9uLWEtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU2NDUvYS1wZXJzb24tb24tdGhlLXBob25lLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLW1vdmVtZW50LW9uLWEtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>需要透视</h2>
<p>埃德加·爱伦·坡曾著名地写道：&#34;相信你听到的任何事情，只相信你看到的一半。&#34; 华尔街似乎在某种程度上采取了这种方法，针对 DeepSeek 的一些主张。具体来说，声称其为开发聊天机器人花费 560 万美元的说法遭到了一些分析师的怀疑。</p>
<p>伯恩斯坦分析师斯泰西·拉斯贡在给客户的报告中写道（强调是我的），&#34;DeepSeek 真的花 560 万美元 ‘构建了 OpenAI’ 吗？<em>当然不是</em>。&#34; 该分析师指出，许多常规开支和开发成本被排除在总费用之外。他写道：&#34;DeepSeek 的 R1 论文没有量化开发 R1 模型所需的额外资源（可以推测这些资源也相当可观）。&#34;</p>
<p>周一，许多投资者感到恐慌，担心更高效的 AI 模型会导致 Nvidia 的业务减少，但这可能并非如此。根据杰文斯悖论，技术进步带来的效率提升通常会通过降低成本来_增加_需求。换句话说，低成本的 AI 模型将推动更广泛的采用，从而增加对 Nvidia 以 AI 为中心的处理器的需求。</p>
<p>Cantor Fitzgerald 分析师 C.J. Muse 持类似观点：&#34;创新正在降低采用成本，使 AI 无处不在，&#34; 他写道。&#34;我们认为这一进展是积极的，随着时间的推移对计算需求的需求将越来越多（而不是减少）。&#34; 这对 Nvidia 来说是个好兆头。</p>
<p>Tigress Financial 在周二将 Nvidia 的评级上调至强力买入，并将其股票目标价提高至街头最高的 220 美元。这代表着与周二收盘价相比，投资者有 71% 的潜在上涨空间。该分析师认为，支持 AI 所需的数据中心增长将持续不减，而 Nvidia 在数据中心 GPU 市场中占据主导份额，将继续从这一趋势中获利。</p>
<p>即使在 DeepSeek 的轰动之后，华尔街几乎普遍支持 Nvidia。在 1 月份至今提供意见的 63 位分析师中，94% 给予买入或强力买入评级，_没有_一位分析师建议卖出。</p>
<p>这表明，尽管 DeepSeek 的看似震撼的发展，华尔街对 Nvidia 仍然保持相当乐观。</p>
<p>##《傻瓜投资者》的观点</p>
<p>1 月 27 日，《傻瓜投资者》的分析师们举行了一次圆桌讨论，讨论了 DeepSeek 公告周围的问题。从那次对话中，有几个亮点脱颖而出：</p>
<ul>
<li>小组成员质疑训练 DeepSeek 的聊天机器人是否真的只花费了 560 万美元。对 DeepSeek 提供的白皮书的审查似乎表明，这仅包括最新版本的成本，而没有包括之前的开发成本。</li>
<li>DeepSeek 的 AI 助手最近成为 <strong>Apple</strong> 商店下载量最高的免费应用。然而，下载量与实际应用使用之间似乎存在差异，这可能会质疑这些统计数据的真实性。</li>
<li>除去这些警告，这可能是技术的自然演变。随着资源变得越来越稀缺，焦点不可避免地将转向创新，孕育下一代的进步。</li>
<li>即使这代表了 AI 发展的突破，它也可能不会减少对 Nvidia 先进处理器的需求，因为它们将继续在训练 AI 模型中发挥关键作用。</li>
<li>小组普遍认为，Nvidia 的高估值将导致波动性增加，这将考验投资者的勇气。</li>
</ul>
<p>综合来看，证据表明 DeepSeek 的轰动更像是技术的必然演变，而不是重大突破。</p>
<p>AI 革命仍处于早期阶段，因此，投资者应该期待在未来几个月和几年内更多的 “轰动” 发展。周一，一些投资者因恐慌而抛售 Nvidia，但对这样的新闻做出本能反应可能是一个代价高昂的错误。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c2eb37c56ac84d9a99e3e9e9b65e578.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c2eb37c56ac84d9a99e3e9e9b65e578.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>最后，Nvidia 的股票目前的市盈率约为 50 倍。虽然这可能足以让价值投资者选择退出，但这远低于 Nvidia 过去五年的平均市盈率 81 倍，从历史角度来看相对便宜。此外，在同一时期，该股上涨超过 2000%，这说明了其值得高估值的原因。</p>
<p>鉴于该公司长期以来的创新记录，我仍然认为 Nvidia 是一个值得投资的选择。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票因人工智能的进展而大幅上涨，过去两年增长了 500%。然而，中国初创公司 DeepSeek 关于其人工智能聊天机器人的开发的声明导致英伟达的股票下跌了 17%。尽管如此，华尔街分析师仍然保持乐观，94% 的人推荐买入。分析师认为，人工智能的效率提升将增加对英伟达 GPU 的需求，Tigress Financial 将该股票评级上调至强力买入，目标价为 220 美元，意味着投资者有潜在 71% 的上涨空间</p>

<p>There's a compelling argument that recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) could have vast implications for the future. Over the past couple of years, advances in generative AI have helped fuel a roaring bull market with promises of significant productivity increases. The potential windfall of increased profits has companies racing to adopt these next-generation algorithms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于人工智能（AI）领域最近的发展可能对未来产生巨大影响，有一个令人信服的论点。在过去的几年里，生成式 AI 的进步助推了一个蓬勃发展的牛市，承诺显著提高生产力。潜在的利润激增使得公司们争相采用这些下一代算法。</p>
</div><p>One of the biggest beneficiaries of these secular tailwinds has been <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 8.93%). The company's graphic processing units (GPUs), which were initially developed for gaming applications, proved equally adept at supplying the computational horsepower needed for AI. Robust sales of these processors fueled a parabolic rise, sending Nvidia stock up more than 500% over the past two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>受益于这些长期趋势的最大赢家之一是 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 8.93%）。该公司的图形处理单元（GPU）最初是为游戏应用开发的，但同样适用于提供 AI 所需的计算能力。这些处理器的强劲销售推动了股价的抛物线式上涨，使 Nvidia 的股票在过去两年中上涨了超过 500%。</p>
</div><p>However, claims made by Chinese start-up DeepSeek threatened to upset the existing paradigm, sending Nvidia into a tailspin. The stock slumped 17% and lost nearly $600 billion in market cap in a single day. Nevertheless, after a good night's sleep, Wall Street has some thoughts on the matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，中国初创公司 DeepSeek 所做的声明威胁到了现有的格局，使 Nvidia 陷入困境。该股在一天内下跌了 17%，市值损失近 6000 亿美元。尽管如此，经过一夜的沉淀，华尔街对此事有了一些看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU2NDUvYS1wZXJzb24tb24tdGhlLXBob25lLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLW1vdmVtZW50LW9uLWEtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805645%2Fa-person-on-the-phone-pointing-to-movement-on-a-stock-chart.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Perspective is required</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>需要透视</h2>
</div><p>Edgar Allan Poe famously wrote, &#34;Believe nothing you hear, and only one half that you see.&#34; Wall Street seems to be taking that approach, to a certain extent, regarding some of the assertions made by DeepSeek. Specifically, claims that it created its chatbot for $5.6 million are being met with skepticism by some analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃德加·爱伦·坡曾著名地写道：&#34;相信你听到的任何事情，只相信你看到的一半。&#34; 华尔街似乎在某种程度上采取了这种方法，针对 DeepSeek 的一些主张。具体来说，声称其为开发聊天机器人花费 560 万美元的说法遭到了一些分析师的怀疑。</p>
</div><p>Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in a note to clients (emphasis mine), &#34;Did DeepSeek really 'build OpenAI for $5M?' <em>Of course not</em>.&#34; The analyst suggested that many of the routine expenses and development costs were left out of the total. &#34;DeepSeek's R1 paper did not quantify the additional resources that were required to develop the R1 model (presumably they were substantial as well),&#34; he wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯恩斯坦分析师斯泰西·拉斯贡在给客户的报告中写道（强调是我的），&#34;DeepSeek 真的花 560 万美元 ‘构建了 OpenAI’ 吗？<em>当然不是</em>。&#34; 该分析师指出，许多常规开支和开发成本被排除在总费用之外。他写道：&#34;DeepSeek 的 R1 论文没有量化开发 R1 模型所需的额外资源（可以推测这些资源也相当可观）。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Many investors panicked on Monday, fearing that more efficient AI models would mean less business for Nvidia, but that's likely not the case. According to Jevons paradox, efficiency gains from technological advancements generally <em>increase</em> demand by bringing costs down. Put another way, lower-cost AI models will drive increased adoption, which will increase demand for Nvidia's AI-centric processors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，许多投资者感到恐慌，担心更高效的 AI 模型会导致 Nvidia 的业务减少，但这可能并非如此。根据杰文斯悖论，技术进步带来的效率提升通常会通过降低成本来_增加_需求。换句话说，低成本的 AI 模型将推动更广泛的采用，从而增加对 Nvidia 以 AI 为中心的处理器的需求。</p>
</div><p>Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse took a similar position: &#34;Innovation is driving down cost of adoption and making AI ubiquitous,&#34; he wrote. &#34;We see this progress as positive in the need for more and more compute over time (not less).&#34; This bodes well for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Cantor Fitzgerald 分析师 C.J. Muse 持类似观点：&#34;创新正在降低采用成本，使 AI 无处不在，&#34; 他写道。&#34;我们认为这一进展是积极的，随着时间的推移对计算需求的需求将越来越多（而不是减少）。&#34; 这对 Nvidia 来说是个好兆头。</p>
</div><p>Tigress Financial upgraded Nvidia to strong buy on Tuesday and increased its price target on the stock to a Street-high $220. That represents potential upside for investors of 71% compared to Tuesday's closing price. The analyst believes that the data center growth needed to support AI will continue unabated and Nvidia -- which controls a dominant share of the data center GPU market -- will continue to profit from this trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tigress Financial 在周二将 Nvidia 的评级上调至强力买入，并将其股票目标价提高至街头最高的 220 美元。这代表着与周二收盘价相比，投资者有 71% 的潜在上涨空间。该分析师认为，支持 AI 所需的数据中心增长将持续不减，而 Nvidia 在数据中心 GPU 市场中占据主导份额，将继续从这一趋势中获利。</p>
</div><p>Even in the wake of the DeepSeek bombshell, Wall Street is almost universally behind Nvidia. Of the 63 analysts who have offered an opinion thus far in January, 94% rate it a buy or strong buy, and <em>none</em> recommend selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在 DeepSeek 的轰动之后，华尔街几乎普遍支持 Nvidia。在 1 月份至今提供意见的 63 位分析师中，94% 给予买入或强力买入评级，_没有_一位分析师建议卖出。</p>
</div><p>This shows that Wall Street remains remarkably bullish on Nvidia despite DeepSeek's seemingly earthshaking developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，尽管 DeepSeek 的看似震撼的发展，华尔街对 Nvidia 仍然保持相当乐观。</p>
</div><h2>The Motley Fool's Opinion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>##《傻瓜投资者》的观点</p>
</div><p>On Jan. 27, a roundtable discussion among Fool analysts took place, and they debated the issues surrounding DeepSeek's announcement. From that conversation, several highlights stand out:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月 27 日，《傻瓜投资者》的分析师们举行了一次圆桌讨论，讨论了 DeepSeek 公告周围的问题。从那次对话中，有几个亮点脱颖而出：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The panelists echoed the question of whether it cost just $5.6 million to train DeepSeek's chatbot. A review of the white paper supplied by DeepSeek seems to suggest that this only includes the cost for the most recent version and none of the development that preceded it.</li>
<li>The DeepSeek AI assistant recently became the No.1 downloaded free app on the <strong>Apple</strong> Store. However, there seems to be a discrepancy between the number of downloads and the actual app usage, which could call into question the veracity of these statistics.</li>
<li>Those caveats aside, there's the potential that this is the natural evolution of the technology. As resources become more scarce, the focus will inevitably turn toward innovation, breeding the next generation of advancements.</li>
<li>Even if this represents a breakthrough in AI development, it likely won't reduce the need for Nvidia's state-of-the-art processors, as they will continue to play a crucial role in training AI models.</li>
<li>The group generally agreed that Nvidia's premium valuation would lead to increased volatility, which would test the mettle of investors.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>小组成员质疑训练 DeepSeek 的聊天机器人是否真的只花费了 560 万美元。对 DeepSeek 提供的白皮书的审查似乎表明，这仅包括最新版本的成本，而没有包括之前的开发成本。</li>
<li>DeepSeek 的 AI 助手最近成为 <strong>Apple</strong> 商店下载量最高的免费应用。然而，下载量与实际应用使用之间似乎存在差异，这可能会质疑这些统计数据的真实性。</li>
<li>除去这些警告，这可能是技术的自然演变。随着资源变得越来越稀缺，焦点不可避免地将转向创新，孕育下一代的进步。</li>
<li>即使这代表了 AI 发展的突破，它也可能不会减少对 Nvidia 先进处理器的需求，因为它们将继续在训练 AI 模型中发挥关键作用。</li>
<li>小组普遍认为，Nvidia 的高估值将导致波动性增加，这将考验投资者的勇气。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Collectively, the evidence suggests that DeepSeek's bombshell was more of an inevitable evolution of technology than a major breakthrough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，证据表明 DeepSeek 的轰动更像是技术的必然演变，而不是重大突破。</p>
</div><p>It's still the early days of the AI revolution, and as such, investors should expect more &#34;bombshell&#34; developments in the field in the months and years to come. Some investors were scared out of Nvidia on Monday, but having a knee-jerk reaction to news like this could be a costly mistake.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 革命仍处于早期阶段，因此，投资者应该期待在未来几个月和几年内更多的 “轰动” 发展。周一，一些投资者因恐慌而抛售 Nvidia，但对这样的新闻做出本能反应可能是一个代价高昂的错误。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c2eb37c56ac84d9a99e3e9e9b65e578.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c2eb37c56ac84d9a99e3e9e9b65e578.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Finally, Nvidia stock is currently selling for roughly 50 times earnings. While that might be enough to send value investors headed for the exits, that's far below Nvidia's average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 81 over the past five years, making it relatively inexpensive from a historical perspective. Furthermore, the stock gained more than 2,000% during that same period, which illustrates why it is worthy of a premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Nvidia 的股票目前的市盈率约为 50 倍。虽然这可能足以让价值投资者选择退出，但这远低于 Nvidia 过去五年的平均市盈率 81 倍，从历史角度来看相对便宜。此外，在同一时期，该股上涨超过 2000%，这说明了其值得高估值的原因。</p>
</div><p>Given the company's long track record and history of innovation, I still believe Nvidia is a worthwhile investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于该公司长期以来的创新记录，我仍然认为 Nvidia 是一个值得投资的选择。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock in the Wake of the DeepSeek Bombshell? Here's What Wall Street Is Saying.

- Nvidia 在 AI 领域的快速增长使其股价在两年内上涨超过 500%。
- 尽管 DeepSeek 的声明引发市场恐慌，分析师普遍看好 Nvidia 的前景。
- Wall Street 94% 的分析师对 Nvidia 给予买入评级，显示出对其未来的信心。

在 DeepSeek 爆炸性新闻之后，你是否应该购买英伟达的股票？以下是华尔街的观点