<p>不可否认，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.87%）正在取得非凡的成就，并且很可能在未来几年继续如此。这家由埃隆·马斯克领导的公司正在为大众制造全电动汽车，发展庞大的能源存储业务，并开发尖端技术，同时积累大量现金，这将有助于进一步巩固其竞争地位。但这并不是一个完美的业务——远非如此。然而，股票的极高估值要求它至少接近完美。</p>
<p>尽管公司在执行方面有着悠久的辉煌历史，并且未来前景光明，但特斯拉最新的季度业绩表明，这家电动汽车制造商的股票可能被高估了。但这里有一个警告：公司可能还有一张王牌。然而，押注于这张潜在的王牌是有风险的。</p>
<h2>基本面与估值的不匹配</h2>
<p>高利率环境使得消费者购车变得困难，这对特斯拉造成了重大阻力。公司在周三下午的第四季度更新中透露，全年汽车总收入下降了 6%。具体到第四季度，汽车收入同比下降了更为明显的 8%。幸运的是，能源发电和存储收入同比增长 113% 帮助公司在该期间实现了增长（服务和其他收入同比增长 31% 也有所帮助）。但能源发电和存储部门的影响微乎其微，因为它仅占总收入的 12%。第四季度总收入同比增长 2%。</p>
<p>将特斯拉下降的汽车收入与其运营利润率收缩两个百分点相结合，特斯拉的净收入在本季度大幅下滑。该期间每股收益为 0.66 美元，同比下降 71%。运营利润率下降是由于其四款畅销车型的平均售价降低，以及在人工智能和其他研发项目上的支出增加，特斯拉在其第四季度更新中解释道。</p>
<p>当投资者考虑到该股票目前的市盈率接近 200 倍（非 GAAP 基础上约为 165 倍）时，这一平庸的表现尤其令人担忧。</p>
<h2>这是特斯拉的秘密武器吗？</h2>
<p>当然，任何足够关注特斯拉的人都知道，押注于该股票与公司今天的业绩关系不大。看涨的理由依赖于公司对未来的大胆雄心，包括计划推出一项服务，将其现有的车辆车队转变为自动驾驶出租车服务，最终甚至销售类人机器人。</p>
<p>然而，这些未来的发展是不确定的，且难以建模。即使特斯拉如计划在今年夏天在奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车服务，也很难知道公司在这一计划上的执行效果如何，服务的盈利能力如何，以及特斯拉能够多快将该服务扩展到其他市场。因此，许多投资者正在寻找更确定的催化剂。公司对更实惠车型的计划可能是推动股票加速上涨的火花。</p>
<p>特斯拉在其第四季度更新中表示：“包括更实惠车型在内的新车型计划仍按计划在 2025 年上半年开始生产。”</p>
<p>虽然关于这些 “更实惠车型” 的定价或特性知之甚少，但它们几乎肯定会在价格对购车者尤其重要的时刻，带来更高的需求和销售。推出一款新的、更实惠的车型可能会为特斯拉的投资者提供一个具体的催化剂，让他们在等待公司更具投机性的项目结果时有所依托。</p>
<p>话虽如此，更实惠的车型也带来了自身的问题：较低的利润率。这在该车型生产的早期阶段尤其如此。正如特斯拉推出的所有车型一样，直到生产规模达到一定水平，公司才会从新车型中获得显著利润。因此，如果特斯拉确实将这款车型推向市场，2025 年可能会是一个重度支出甚至更低利润的一年。尽管如此，新车型可能会帮助特斯拉恢复增长，并重新激活增长故事。</p>
<p>但押注于这一催化剂仍然是有风险的。以接近 200 倍的市盈率交易，快速增长和创新已经被计入股票中。公司在未来几年必须以近乎完美的精确度执行，才能兑现围绕其股票的炒作。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉面临着汽车收入下降和高估值的挑战，尽管其未来计划雄心勃勃。该公司第四季度的业绩显示，汽车总收入下降了 6%，而能源生产和储存收入则增长了 113%。特斯拉的净收入同比下降了 71%，引发了对其股票近 200 倍市盈率的担忧。然而，计划在 2025 年开始生产更实惠的车辆可能会推动需求和销售，尽管这可能会导致初期利润率降低。投资者保持谨慎，因为公司必须有效执行其计划，以证明其股价的合理性</p>

<p>There's no denying <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.87%) is accomplishing extraordinary things and will likely continue doing so for years to come. The Elon Musk-led company is building fully electric cars for the masses, growing a massive energy storage business, and developing bleeding-edge technology, all while amassing a war chest of cash that will likely help further fortify its competitive position. But it's not a perfect business -- far from it. Yet the stock's extremely rich valuation demands that it at least come close to perfect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否认，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.87%）正在取得非凡的成就，并且很可能在未来几年继续如此。这家由埃隆·马斯克领导的公司正在为大众制造全电动汽车，发展庞大的能源存储业务，并开发尖端技术，同时积累大量现金，这将有助于进一步巩固其竞争地位。但这并不是一个完美的业务——远非如此。然而，股票的极高估值要求它至少接近完美。</p>
</div><p>Despite the company's long history of incredible execution and high odds for a bright future, Tesla's latest quarterly results suggest the electric car maker's stock may be overvalued. But here's the caveat: The company may have an ace up its sleeve. Betting on this potential ace, however, is risky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司在执行方面有着悠久的辉煌历史，并且未来前景光明，但特斯拉最新的季度业绩表明，这家电动汽车制造商的股票可能被高估了。但这里有一个警告：公司可能还有一张王牌。然而，押注于这张潜在的王牌是有风险的。</p>
</div><h2>A mismatch in fundamentals and valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本面与估值的不匹配</h2>
</div><p>A high-interest-rate environment, making vehicle affordability difficult for consumers, has been a major headwind for Tesla. The company's total automotive revenue for the year fell 6%, the company revealed in its fourth-quarter update on Wednesday afternoon. For its fourth quarter specifically, automotive revenue fell an even sharper 8% year over year. Fortunately, a 113% year-over-year increase in energy generation and storage revenue helped the company post growth for the period (a 31% year-over-year increase in services and other revenue helped, too). But the energy generation and storage segment's impact was minimal since it accounted for only 12% of total revenue. Total fourth-quarter revenue rose 2% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高利率环境使得消费者购车变得困难，这对特斯拉造成了重大阻力。公司在周三下午的第四季度更新中透露，全年汽车总收入下降了 6%。具体到第四季度，汽车收入同比下降了更为明显的 8%。幸运的是，能源发电和存储收入同比增长 113% 帮助公司在该期间实现了增长（服务和其他收入同比增长 31% 也有所帮助）。但能源发电和存储部门的影响微乎其微，因为它仅占总收入的 12%。第四季度总收入同比增长 2%。</p>
</div><p>Combining Tesla's declining automotive revenue with a two-percentage-point contraction in its operating margin, Tesla's net income plummeted for the quarter. Earnings on a per share basis came out to $0.66 for the period, down 71% year over year. The lower operating margin was due to lower average selling prices for its four top-selling models and increased spending on artificial intelligence and other research and development projects, Tesla explained in its fourth-quarter update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将特斯拉下降的汽车收入与其运营利润率收缩两个百分点相结合，特斯拉的净收入在本季度大幅下滑。该期间每股收益为 0.66 美元，同比下降 71%。运营利润率下降是由于其四款畅销车型的平均售价降低，以及在人工智能和其他研发项目上的支出增加，特斯拉在其第四季度更新中解释道。</p>
</div><p>This mediocre performance is particularly concerning when investors consider that the stock currently boasts a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 200 times earnings (approximately 165 on a non-GAAP basis).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当投资者考虑到该股票目前的市盈率接近 200 倍（非 GAAP 基础上约为 165 倍）时，这一平庸的表现尤其令人担忧。</p>
</div><h2>Is this Tesla's secret weapon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这是特斯拉的秘密武器吗？</h2>
</div><p>Of course, anyone who follows Tesla closely enough knows that a bet on the stock has little to do with the company's results today. The bull case is dependent on the company's bold ambitions for its future, including plans to launch a service that will turn its existing fleet of vehicles into an autonomous taxi service and eventually even sell humanoid robots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，任何足够关注特斯拉的人都知道，押注于该股票与公司今天的业绩关系不大。看涨的理由依赖于公司对未来的大胆雄心，包括计划推出一项服务，将其现有的车辆车队转变为自动驾驶出租车服务，最终甚至销售类人机器人。</p>
</div><p>Still, these future developments are uncertain and difficult to model. Even if Tesla launches an autonomous taxi service later this year, as it plans to do so in Austin by this summer, it's extremely difficult to know how well the company will execute on this plan, how profitable the service will be, and how quickly Tesla can scale the service to other markets. Many investors, therefore, are looking for a more certain catalyst. The company's plans for a more affordable vehicle could be the spark needed to shift the stock into high gear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些未来的发展是不确定的，且难以建模。即使特斯拉如计划在今年夏天在奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车服务，也很难知道公司在这一计划上的执行效果如何，服务的盈利能力如何，以及特斯拉能够多快将该服务扩展到其他市场。因此，许多投资者正在寻找更确定的催化剂。公司对更实惠车型的计划可能是推动股票加速上涨的火花。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for the start of production in the first half of 2025,&#34; Tesla said in its fourth-quarter update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在其第四季度更新中表示：“包括更实惠车型在内的新车型计划仍按计划在 2025 年上半年开始生产。”</p>
</div><p>While little is known about the pricing or features of these &#34;more affordable models,&#34; they would almost certainly lead to higher demand and sales for the company at a time when price is especially important to the car buyer. The launch of a new, more affordable model could give Tesla investors a concrete catalyst to hold onto while they wait to see how the company's more speculative projects pan out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然关于这些 “更实惠车型” 的定价或特性知之甚少，但它们几乎肯定会在价格对购车者尤其重要的时刻，带来更高的需求和销售。推出一款新的、更实惠的车型可能会为特斯拉的投资者提供一个具体的催化剂，让他们在等待公司更具投机性的项目结果时有所依托。</p>
</div><p>With this said, a more affordable vehicle brings with it its own issue: a lower profit margin. This will especially be the case in the early days of the vehicle's production. As has been the case for all the vehicles Tesla has launched, the company doesn't start profiting meaningfully from a new model until production has scaled to a meaningful level. So, 2025 could be a year of heavy spending and even lower profits if Tesla does bring this vehicle to market. Nevertheless, a new model could help Tesla return to growth and it could reinvigorate the growth story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，更实惠的车型也带来了自身的问题：较低的利润率。这在该车型生产的早期阶段尤其如此。正如特斯拉推出的所有车型一样，直到生产规模达到一定水平，公司才会从新车型中获得显著利润。因此，如果特斯拉确实将这款车型推向市场，2025 年可能会是一个重度支出甚至更低利润的一年。尽管如此，新车型可能会帮助特斯拉恢复增长，并重新激活增长故事。</p>
</div><p>But betting on this catalyst is still risky. Trading at nearly 200 times earnings, rapid growth and innovation is already priced into the stock. The company will have to execute with near-perfect precision in the coming years to live up to the hype surrounding its shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但押注于这一催化剂仍然是有风险的。以接近 200 倍的市盈率交易，快速增长和创新已经被计入股票中。公司在未来几年必须以近乎完美的精确度执行，才能兑现围绕其股票的炒作。</p>
</div>

Tesla May Have an Ace Up Its Sleeve to Propel Shares Higher

- 特斯拉第四季度汽车收入同比下降 8%，净利润大幅下滑 71%。  
- 能源存储业务增长 113% 部分抵消了汽车收入的下滑。  
- 新车型计划或成催化剂，但低利润率风险依然存在。  

特斯拉可能有一张王牌可以推动其股价进一步上涨