<p>在过去几年中，没有比通货膨胀更重要的宏观经济话题了。由于供应链瓶颈、货币刺激和被压抑的消费者需求等多种因素的综合影响，2022 年经济各领域的价格达到了十年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>然而，得益于更高的利率，美联储已将通货膨胀控制住。但这并不意味着我们已经完全摆脱了困境。广受关注的消费者价格指数（CPI）在 2024 年最后三个月出现了加速的同比增长。投资者应该对此保持关注。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，你无法控制通货膨胀。但你可以采取一些措施，以更好地为你的投资组合在长期内取得成功做好准备。</p>
<h2>经济环境的变化</h2>
<p>截至 12 月，有效联邦基金利率为 4.48%。这远高于 COVID-19 疫情爆发后近两年期间的不到 0.1%。为了应对通货膨胀，中央银行迅速提高联邦基金利率，以施压借贷和消费活动。但 12 月的 CPI 数据为 2.9%，仍比美联储的 2% 目标高出 45%。</p>
<p>很难相信通货膨胀会在短期内下降。唐纳德·特朗普总统显著的经济政策观点倾向于支持经济中的高价格。减税可以增加对商品的需求，因为它提高了公民的消费能力。而实施关税也可能提高进口商品的价格，因为这些更高的成本可能会转嫁给消费者。</p>
<p>在最近的世界经济论坛上，特朗普表示：“我会要求利率立即下降。” 如果付诸实施，降低利率可能会推动通货膨胀。</p>
<p>当然，美联储旨在独立于白宫。但在未来几年，通货膨胀仍有可能高于过去十年中的大多数时间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU0MTcvaW5mbGF0aW9uLXR5cGVkLW9uLWNhbGN1bGF0b3IuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU0MTcvaW5mbGF0aW9uLXR5cGVkLW9uLWNhbGN1bGF0b3IuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>定价能力</h2>
<p>对于那些关心为投资组合挑选个股的长期投资者来说，试图预测宏观经济趋势并不是最有效的时间利用。但我认为每位投资者至少应该了解更广泛经济中发生的事情。</p>
<p>归根结底，关键在于找到那些在价格上涨时能够表现出色的公司。传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特曾说：“评估一家企业时，最重要的决定就是定价能力。” 这些公司不仅找到了为消费者提供超额价值的方法，还能够为自己捕获更大份额的价值。可能没有比这更好的投资机会了。</p>
<p>这样的企业应该始终在投资者的雷达上，因为奥马哈的先知认为它们的质量极高。但在通货膨胀环境中，这种情况更加明显，因为它们能够持续将更高的成本转嫁给客户。</p>
<h2>将这些列入关注名单</h2>
<p>很容易找到那些证明了定价能力的企业实例。它们可以来自许多行业。</p>
<p>例如，在零售方面，<strong>Costco</strong> 凭借其极受欢迎的会员制度，每隔几年就能够提高年费。在餐饮领域，还有 <strong>Chipotle</strong>。管理层成功地提高了菜单价格，以抵消上升的输入成本。</p>
<p>在媒体领域，<strong>Netflix</strong> 和 <strong>Walt Disney</strong> 继续对其流媒体服务收取更高的月费，这一趋势并没有阻止订阅人数的增长。迪士尼在其主题公园和游轮业务中也展现了定价能力。</p>
<p><strong>Ferrari</strong> 并不是一家典型的汽车制造商。其领导团队将品牌的力量置于首位，限制每年生产和销售的车辆数量。结果是能够持续提高汽车价格，而其富裕客户群对此乐于接受。</p>
<p>在我看来，除了迪士尼外，所有这些股票目前的估值都很高。尽管如此，这些企业应该在你的关注名单上，打算进一步研究并等待回调后再进行购买。</p>
<p>根据最近的 CPI 数据，加上特朗普推动经济和股市的努力，未来十年通货膨胀可能会高于投资者的预期。最好考虑如何更好地调整你的投资组合。</p>

开市客

<p>这篇文章讨论了持续存在的通货膨胀问题，受到供应链问题、货币刺激和消费者需求的影响。尽管美联储已提高利率以控制通货膨胀，但消费者物价指数（CPI）仍高于目标水平。建议投资者关注具有强大定价能力的公司，如开市客、Chipotle、Netflix、迪士尼和法拉利，这些公司能够将成本转嫁给消费者。作者建议关注这些股票，以寻找潜在的投资机会，因为通货膨胀在未来几年可能仍将保持高位</p>

<p>There hasn't been a more important macroeconomic topic in the past few years than that of inflation. Due to a combination of factors, like supply chain bottlenecks, monetary stimulus, and pent-up consumer demand, prices across the economy rose to decade-high levels in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，没有比通货膨胀更重要的宏观经济话题了。由于供应链瓶颈、货币刺激和被压抑的消费者需求等多种因素的综合影响，2022 年经济各领域的价格达到了十年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>However, thanks to higher interest rates, the Federal Reserve has brought inflation under control. That isn't to say we're in the clear yet. The widely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw accelerating year-over-year increases in the last three months of 2024. Investors should be paying attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，得益于更高的利率，美联储已将通货膨胀控制住。但这并不意味着我们已经完全摆脱了困境。广受关注的消费者价格指数（CPI）在 2024 年最后三个月出现了加速的同比增长。投资者应该对此保持关注。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, you can't control inflation. But you can do something about it to better position your portfolios for long-term success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，你无法控制通货膨胀。但你可以采取一些措施，以更好地为你的投资组合在长期内取得成功做好准备。</p>
</div><h2>Changing economic landscape</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>经济环境的变化</h2>
</div><p>The effective federal funds rate was at 4.48% in December. That's significantly higher than the less than 0.1% it was during the nearly two-year stretch following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To combat inflation, the central bank quickly increased the federal funds rate to pressure borrowing and spending activity. But December's CPI print of 2.9% is still 45% higher than the Fed's 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 12 月，有效联邦基金利率为 4.48%。这远高于 COVID-19 疫情爆发后近两年期间的不到 0.1%。为了应对通货膨胀，中央银行迅速提高联邦基金利率，以施压借贷和消费活动。但 12 月的 CPI 数据为 2.9%，仍比美联储的 2% 目标高出 45%。</p>
</div><p>It's difficult to believe that inflation will come down anytime soon. President Donald Trump's notable economic policy views favor higher prices across the economy. Tax cuts can increase demand for goods, as they raise the spending power of citizens. And implementing tariffs can also increase the price of goods that are imported because these higher costs could be passed onto consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难相信通货膨胀会在短期内下降。唐纳德·特朗普总统显著的经济政策观点倾向于支持经济中的高价格。减税可以增加对商品的需求，因为它提高了公民的消费能力。而实施关税也可能提高进口商品的价格，因为这些更高的成本可能会转嫁给消费者。</p>
</div><p>And when speaking at the recent World Economic Forum, Trump said, &#34;I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately.&#34; If put in motion, lower rates can boost inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的世界经济论坛上，特朗普表示：“我会要求利率立即下降。” 如果付诸实施，降低利率可能会推动通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve aims to be independent of the White House. But there's still a chance inflation is higher over the next few years than it's been for most of the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，美联储旨在独立于白宫。但在未来几年，通货膨胀仍有可能高于过去十年中的大多数时间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU0MTcvaW5mbGF0aW9uLXR5cGVkLW9uLWNhbGN1bGF0b3IuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805417%2Finflation-typed-on-calculator.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Pricing power</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定价能力</h2>
</div><p>For long-term investors who care about picking individual stocks for their portfolios, trying to predict macroeconomic trends is not the best use of time. But I believe every investor should at least be aware of what's happening within the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些关心为投资组合挑选个股的长期投资者来说，试图预测宏观经济趋势并不是最有效的时间利用。但我认为每位投资者至少应该了解更广泛经济中发生的事情。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the day, it's all about finding the right companies that can excel when prices are going up. &#34;The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power,&#34; the legendary Warren Buffett once said. These companies have not only figured out how to deliver excess value to consumers, but to capture a larger chunk of that value for themselves. There might be no better setup out there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>归根结底，关键在于找到那些在价格上涨时能够表现出色的公司。传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特曾说：“评估一家企业时，最重要的决定就是定价能力。” 这些公司不仅找到了为消费者提供超额价值的方法，还能够为自己捕获更大份额的价值。可能没有比这更好的投资机会了。</p>
</div><p>Businesses like this should always be on investors' radars, as the Oracle of Omaha thinks they are extremely high quality. But in an inflationary environment, this is more so the case because they are able to consistently pass higher costs to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的企业应该始终在投资者的雷达上，因为奥马哈的先知认为它们的质量极高。但在通货膨胀环境中，这种情况更加明显，因为它们能够持续将更高的成本转嫁给客户。</p>
</div><h2>Keep these on the watch list</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>将这些列入关注名单</h2>
</div><p>It's easy to find instances of businesses that have proven pricing power. They can be from many industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很容易找到那些证明了定价能力的企业实例。它们可以来自许多行业。</p>
</div><p>For example, on the retail side, <strong>Costco</strong>, with its incredibly popular memberships, is able to raise the annual fees every few years. There's also <strong>Chipotle</strong> in the restaurant space. Management has successfully raised menu prices to offset rising input costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在零售方面，<strong>Costco</strong> 凭借其极受欢迎的会员制度，每隔几年就能够提高年费。在餐饮领域，还有 <strong>Chipotle</strong>。管理层成功地提高了菜单价格，以抵消上升的输入成本。</p>
</div><p>Within the media space, both <strong>Netflix</strong> and <strong>Walt Disney</strong> continue to charge higher monthly prices for their streaming services, a trend that hasn't stopped subscriber counts from going up. Disney also exhibits pricing power within its theme parks and cruise lines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在媒体领域，<strong>Netflix</strong> 和 <strong>Walt Disney</strong> 继续对其流媒体服务收取更高的月费，这一趋势并没有阻止订阅人数的增长。迪士尼在其主题公园和游轮业务中也展现了定价能力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Ferrari</strong> isn't a typical carmaker. Its leadership team prioritizes the brand's strength more than anything else, limiting the number of vehicles it makes and sells in any given year. The result is a rare ability to keep increasing car prices that its wealthy clientele is enthusiastic to pay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Ferrari</strong> 并不是一家典型的汽车制造商。其领导团队将品牌的力量置于首位，限制每年生产和销售的车辆数量。结果是能够持续提高汽车价格，而其富裕客户群对此乐于接受。</p>
</div><p>In my opinion, all these stocks trade at steep valuations right now, except for Disney. Nonetheless, these businesses should be on your watch list, with the intention to study them more and wait for a pullback before buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，除了迪士尼外，所有这些股票目前的估值都很高。尽管如此，这些企业应该在你的关注名单上，打算进一步研究并等待回调后再进行购买。</p>
</div><p>Based on recent CPI data, coupled with Trump's efforts to boost the economy and stock market, there's a very real possibility that inflation throughout the rest of this decade will be higher than investors might believe. It's best to think about ways to better position your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最近的 CPI 数据，加上特朗普推动经济和股市的努力，未来十年通货膨胀可能会高于投资者的预期。最好考虑如何更好地调整你的投资组合。</p>
</div>

You Can't Control Inflation, but You Can Control What You Do About It

- 通货膨胀是近年来重要的宏观经济话题，2022 年价格上涨至十年高点。  
- 美联储通过提高利率控制通胀，但 2024 年末 CPI 仍高于目标。  
- 投资者应关注具备定价权的公司，以应对未来可能的高通胀环境。

你无法控制通货膨胀，但你可以控制你如何应对它