<p>比起其他任何美国公司，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.08%）更值得称赞，因为它使电动车（EV）行业变得可行。在经历了数十年甚至几代人关于电动车的讨论后，特斯拉将这一概念推向了主流，扩大了生产规模，并在逆境中实现了可观的利润，超出了预期。</p>
<p>在许多人认为电动车最终会取代传统燃油车的行业中取得的成功，加上其对自动驾驶的巨大承诺，使得特斯拉获得了极高的估值，市值现在超过 1 万亿美元，而与之相比，<strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>福特</strong> 的市盈率则仅为个位数倍数。</p>
<p>根据下面的股票图表，特斯拉的前景依然良好。正如你所看到的，自 2023 年底以来，股价上涨了 56%，克服了去年早些时候的挫折。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>然而，现在特斯拉 2024 年的全年业绩已经公布，数据显示业务远比股价飙升所暗示的要弱，而根据一个数字，特斯拉可能面临严重的麻烦。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的汽车销售下滑</h2>
<p>投资者已经知道特斯拉 2024 年的汽车销量下降了 1.1%，降至 179 万辆，但这家电动车巨头刚刚确认，去年汽车收入也下降了 6%，降至 771 亿美元。今年总收入仍然增长了 1%，达到 977 亿美元，这得益于其能源存储和发电业务以及主要基于软件的服务的增长。但汽车是业务的核心组成部分，而其服务收入为 105 亿美元，也依赖于汽车。</p>
<p>特斯拉汽车收入的下降意味着其汽车的销量和平均售价都在下降。这发生在它推出新款 Cybertruck 的同时，显然是扩大了生产能力。</p>
<p>特斯拉去年降低了汽车价格。虽然不完全清楚原因，但通常企业降低价格是为了在市场中保持竞争力并清理库存，这些规则同样适用于特斯拉。根据传统经济学法则，当价格下降时，需求应该上升，但特斯拉的情况并非如此。相反，需求继续下降。</p>
<p>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克一再抱怨高利率对需求的影响，但高利率对所有汽车制造商的影响是相同的。特斯拉在其第四季度财报中承认，“可负担性仍然是客户关注的重点。”</p>
<p>正如下面的图表所示，特斯拉在北美和欧洲的市场份额在过去一年中下降，而在全球最大的电动车市场中国略有上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtbWFya2V0LXNoYXJlLWNoYXJ0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtbWFya2V0LXNoYXJlLWNoYXJ0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>正如你所看到的，特斯拉的市场份额在过去两年中趋于平稳，甚至开始下降。公司的挑战不仅仅是电动车市场的整体放缓；它在汽车行业的整体市场份额也在下降。</p>
<p>对于这种平稳状态并没有明确的原因，尽管似乎有几个因素导致了这种情况。这些因素包括来自其他电动车制造商的竞争加剧，早期电动车用户的基础似乎已经耗尽，对续航和充电的担忧，以及品牌疲劳，尤其是特斯拉在更新车队方面的速度缓慢，与每年发布新车型的传统汽车制造商形成鲜明对比。</p>
<h2>特斯拉能否恢复增长？</h2>
<p>马斯克继续对自动驾驶做出重大承诺，如果特斯拉能够按照他设想的方式实现完全自动驾驶和机器人出租车，那么当前的增长停滞将无关紧要。然而，市场似乎忽视了公司面临的明显挑战。</p>
<p>特斯拉表示其产能为 300 万辆，并预计将在 2025 年恢复汽车增长，尽管没有给出具体数字。分析师预计今年收入增长 19%，其中大部分应来自汽车增长。</p>
<p>目前，投资者似乎信任马斯克，尽管未能达到预期，股价在盘后交易中上涨，但如果需求继续受到挑战，特斯拉可能还有很长的下跌路要走。考虑到其高昂的估值，特斯拉的股票在这一点上似乎损失的更多。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的汽车销售在 2024 年下降了 1.1%，汽车收入下降 6%，至 771 亿美元，尽管由于能源和服务的增长，总收入上升了 1%，达到 977 亿美元。汽车收入的下降表明销售量和平均售价的减少，即使在推出 Cybertruck 之后。特斯拉在北美和欧洲的市场份额正在下降，原因是竞争加剧、市场饱和和品牌疲劳。尽管首席执行官埃隆·马斯克承诺未来将通过自动驾驶实现增长，但分析师对公司的挑战和高估值仍持谨慎态度</p>

<p>More so than any other American company, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.08%) deserves credit for making the electric vehicle (EV) industry viable. After decades or even generations of talk about an electric car, Tesla has taken the concept mainstream, scaling production and turning a tidy profit against long odds, defying expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比起其他任何美国公司，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.08%）更值得称赞，因为它使电动车（EV）行业变得可行。在经历了数十年甚至几代人关于电动车的讨论后，特斯拉将这一概念推向了主流，扩大了生产规模，并在逆境中实现了可观的利润，超出了预期。</p>
</div><p>That success in an industry that many think will eventually supplant traditional combustion vehicles, along with its big promises about autonomy, has allowed Tesla to earn a sky-high valuation and a market cap now well over $1 trillion, which compares to peers like <strong>General Motors</strong> and <strong>Ford</strong> that trade at single-digit multiples of their earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在许多人认为电动车最终会取代传统燃油车的行业中取得的成功，加上其对自动驾驶的巨大承诺，使得特斯拉获得了极高的估值，市值现在超过 1 万亿美元，而与之相比，<strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>福特</strong> 的市盈率则仅为个位数倍数。</p>
</div><p>According to the stock chart below, things continue to look good for Tesla. As you can see, the stock has jumped 56% since the end of 2023, overcoming an earlier setback last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据下面的股票图表，特斯拉的前景依然良好。正如你所看到的，自 2023 年底以来，股价上涨了 56%，克服了去年早些时候的挫折。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>However, now that Tesla's full-year results are in for 2024, a look at the numbers indicates that the business is much weaker than the stock surge indicates, and according to one number, Tesla could be in serious trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，现在特斯拉 2024 年的全年业绩已经公布，数据显示业务远比股价飙升所暗示的要弱，而根据一个数字，特斯拉可能面临严重的麻烦。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805819%2Ftesla-cybertruck-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's declining auto sales</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的汽车销售下滑</h2>
</div><p>Investors already knew that Tesla's vehicle sales fell in 2024, declining by 1.1% to 1.79 million, but the EV titan just confirmed that automotive revenue was also down last year, down 6% to $77.1 billion. Total revenue still rose 1% this year to $97.7 billion thanks to growth in its energy storage and generation business, and services, which are primarily software-based. But vehicles are the core component of the business, and its services, which made up $10.5 billion in revenue, depend on them as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者已经知道特斯拉 2024 年的汽车销量下降了 1.1%，降至 179 万辆，但这家电动车巨头刚刚确认，去年汽车收入也下降了 6%，降至 771 亿美元。今年总收入仍然增长了 1%，达到 977 亿美元，这得益于其能源存储和发电业务以及主要基于软件的服务的增长。但汽车是业务的核心组成部分，而其服务收入为 105 亿美元，也依赖于汽车。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's decline in automotive revenue means that both volume sales of its vehicles and average selling price declined. This occurred even as it rolled out the new Cybertruck, presumably expanding its production capabilities as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉汽车收入的下降意味着其汽车的销量和平均售价都在下降。这发生在它推出新款 Cybertruck 的同时，显然是扩大了生产能力。</p>
</div><p>Tesla lowered prices on its vehicles last year. It's not fully clear why, but typically businesses lower prices to stay competitive with the market and move inventory, and those rules apply to Tesla as well. According to conventional laws of economics, when prices fall, demand is supposed to go up, but that's not what happened with Tesla. Instead, demand continued to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉去年降低了汽车价格。虽然不完全清楚原因，但通常企业降低价格是为了在市场中保持竞争力并清理库存，这些规则同样适用于特斯拉。根据传统经济学法则，当价格下降时，需求应该上升，但特斯拉的情况并非如此。相反，需求继续下降。</p>
</div><p>CEO Elon Musk has complained time and again about the impact of high interest rates on demand, but high interest rates have affected all automakers equally. Tesla acknowledged in its fourth-quarter earnings report that &#34;Affordability remains top of mind for customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克一再抱怨高利率对需求的影响，但高利率对所有汽车制造商的影响是相同的。特斯拉在其第四季度财报中承认，“可负担性仍然是客户关注的重点。”</p>
</div><p>As the chart below shows, Tesla's market share among all vehicles, not just EVs, has fallen over the last year in North America and Europe, while it's risen slightly in China, the world's largest EV market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下面的图表所示，特斯拉在北美和欧洲的市场份额在过去一年中下降，而在全球最大的电动车市场中国略有上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtbWFya2V0LXNoYXJlLWNoYXJ0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805819%2Ftesla-market-share-chart.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>As you can see, Tesla's market share has plateaued over the last two years and even begun to decline. The company's challenges extend beyond the general slowdown in the electric vehicle market; it's also losing overall market share in the automotive industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，特斯拉的市场份额在过去两年中趋于平稳，甚至开始下降。公司的挑战不仅仅是电动车市场的整体放缓；它在汽车行业的整体市场份额也在下降。</p>
</div><p>There isn't a clear reason for that plateau, though there are several factors that seem to have caused it. Those include increasing competition from other EV makers, a base of early adopters for EVs that seems exhausted, concerns about range and charging, and perhaps some brand fatigue, especially as Tesla has been slow to update its fleet, unlike traditional automakers that release new models every year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于这种平稳状态并没有明确的原因，尽管似乎有几个因素导致了这种情况。这些因素包括来自其他电动车制造商的竞争加剧，早期电动车用户的基础似乎已经耗尽，对续航和充电的担忧，以及品牌疲劳，尤其是特斯拉在更新车队方面的速度缓慢，与每年发布新车型的传统汽车制造商形成鲜明对比。</p>
</div><h2>Can Tesla return to growth?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉能否恢复增长？</h2>
</div><p>Musk continues to make big promises around autonomy, and if Tesla pulls off full self-driving and robotaxis the way he envisions it, the current pause in growth won't matter. The market, however, seems to be overlooking the evident challenges the company is facing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克继续对自动驾驶做出重大承诺，如果特斯拉能够按照他设想的方式实现完全自动驾驶和机器人出租车，那么当前的增长停滞将无关紧要。然而，市场似乎忽视了公司面临的明显挑战。</p>
</div><p>Tesla said it has a capacity of three million vehicles, and it expects to return to vehicle growth in 2025, though it didn't give specific numbers. Analysts expect 19% revenue growth this year, most of which should come from vehicle growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉表示其产能为 300 万辆，并预计将在 2025 年恢复汽车增长，尽管没有给出具体数字。分析师预计今年收入增长 19%，其中大部分应来自汽车增长。</p>
</div><p>For now, investors seem to trust Musk as the stock rose after hours in spite of missing estimates, but Tesla could have a long way to fall if demand continues to be challenged. Given its lofty valuation, Tesla stock seems to have more to lose than to gain at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投资者似乎信任马斯克，尽管未能达到预期，股价在盘后交易中上涨，但如果需求继续受到挑战，特斯拉可能还有很长的下跌路要走。考虑到其高昂的估值，特斯拉的股票在这一点上似乎损失的更多。</p>
</div>

Where Did Tesla's Demand Go?

- 特斯拉 2024 年汽车销售下降 1.1%，汽车收入下滑 6% 至 771 亿美元。  
- 尽管整体收入因能源存储和服务增长上升 1%，但核心汽车业务疲软。  
- 特斯拉市场份额在北美和欧洲下降，面临激烈竞争和需求疲软挑战。

特斯拉的需求消失到哪里去了？