<p>你的投资组合是否充满了大家似乎都拥有的相同股票？也许你在寻找一只被低估的赢家股票。</p>
<p>这样的股票在这个创纪录的市场中并不多见，但它们确实存在。以中国的电子商务巨头 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -3.80%) 为例。由于股价从历史高点下跌了 70%，该公司已经失去了市场的青睐，但实际上它对投资者来说是一个引人注目的选择。</p>
<h2>你应该购买阿里巴巴股票的原因</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴的天猫和淘宝平台共同控制了中国电子商务市场约一半的份额（以及在一些邻国的显著份额）。另一半主要由 Temu 母公司 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京东</strong> 分割。</p>
<p>然而，来自其在线市场的约 600 亿美元年收入仅占公司整体收入的一半。其余部分包括一个名为菜鸟的物流业务、一个云计算部门以及国际电子商务等。</p>
<p>与许多公司一样，阿里巴巴在疫情初期经历了业务激增，但随着危机的减退，增长出现了滞后。然而，随着第三季度收入同比增长 5% 和净收入几乎增长 60%，它再次回升。这一进展延续了公司自去年初以来的收入增长势头。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>虽然阿里巴巴似乎终于走出了疫情带来的低迷，但现在考虑投资阿里巴巴的理由更加具体。其中四个理由尤为突出。</p>
<p><strong>1. 中国的消费支出正在增长</strong></p>
<p>尽管阿里巴巴在管理和推广其电子商务业务方面表现良好，但其成功仍然最终与中国经济的状况，尤其是中国的消费支出息息相关。这就是为什么 2023 年如此艰难——疫情的影响持续时间远超预期。</p>
<p>现在情况要乐观得多。该国的零售销售已经连续两年每个月（同比）增长，得益于去年报告的 5.0% 的 GDP 增长。尽管市场研究机构 eMarketer 预测中国的零售支出今年仅增长 3.5%，但根据多份报告，电子商务支出可能会增长两位数。</p>
<p><strong>2. 公司的状况不再成问题</strong></p>
<p>过去几年关注阿里巴巴的投资者会记得管理层一直在努力制定公司的统一愿景。例如，在 2023 年底，它取消了备受赞誉的剥离云计算部门的计划。而在去年年初，它又推翻了剥离菜鸟物流业务的计划。即使这些最终是正确的决定，投资者也不喜欢这些核心业务未来的不确定性。</p>
<p>现在，距离这些反转大约一年，并且在经历了一次管理层重组后，所有业务都有了具体计划，因此对公司的前景持乐观态度变得更加容易。</p>
<p><strong>3. 其资产负债表健康</strong></p>
<p>这并不常被提及，但债务可以悄悄侵蚀公司的市场地位。它限制了在艰难时期或出现增长机会时可能需要的可用资本。</p>
<p>但阿里巴巴并非如此。尽管它确实有一些债务，这家市值 2350 亿美元的公司仅有约 288 亿美元的借款，而其现金和流动资产几乎是这个数额的两倍。此外，过去一年它产生了 145 亿美元的自由现金流。</p>
<p>正因如此，惠誉评级将阿里巴巴所持的少量债务评级为坚如磐石的 A+。该公司能够应对任何可预见的现金挑战或在不威胁其财务稳定的情况下进行增长投资。</p>
<p><strong>4. 阿里巴巴也是人工智能的新兴者</strong></p>
<p>最后，阿里巴巴也进入了人工智能领域——这也是它选择保留云计算业务而不是在 2023 年剥离的原因之一。</p>
<p>就在中国初创公司 DeepSeek 以其低成本、高效率的 AI 模型搅动市场几天后，阿里巴巴推出了自己的模型 Qwen 2.5-Max，声称其性能甚至优于 DeepSeek 的模型。</p>
<p>虽然阿里巴巴在人工智能竞赛中的竞争力还有待观察，但长期机会是显著的。Precedence Research 预测该行业将在 2034 年前以 19% 的年均增速增长。相信阿里巴巴的人工智能努力可能成为公司下一个主要增长引擎并不为过。</p>
<h2>只需保持视角清晰，并保持警惕</h2>
<p>尽管阿里巴巴似乎正在回升，但仍面临着激烈的电子商务竞争和中国宏观经济的挑战。</p>
<p>目前，阿里巴巴的股价仅为预计 2025 年收益的 11 倍（并且仍比历史高点下跌 70%），我认为投资者并没有充分考虑阿里巴巴的潜在上行空间。这在今天的市场中是一个罕见的便宜货。</p>
<p>只需记住，这在短期内可能仍然是一个波动的股票。</p>

阿里巴巴-W

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-WR

<p>阿里巴巴的股票因多个因素被推荐购买：1）中国消费者支出增长，电子商务预计将实现两位数增长；2）公司稳定性和管理透明度改善；3）强劲的资产负债表，债务可控且现金流充裕；4）在人工智能领域的潜力，阿里巴巴推出了其 AI 模型。尽管面临竞争和宏观经济问题等挑战，该股票目前以预期 2025 年收益的 11 倍估值被低估，成为一个有吸引力的投资机会</p>

<p>Is your portfolio chock-full of the same names everyone else seems to own? Perhaps you're looking for a winning stock that has flown under the radar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你的投资组合是否充满了大家似乎都拥有的相同股票？也许你在寻找一只被低估的赢家股票。</p>
</div><p>Such stocks are few and far between in this record-setting market, but they're out there. Take China's e-commerce giant <strong>Alibaba</strong>(BABA -3.80%) as an example. The company has fallen out of favor following the stock's 70% decline from its all-time high, but it's actually a compelling pick for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的股票在这个创纪录的市场中并不多见，但它们确实存在。以中国的电子商务巨头 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -3.80%) 为例。由于股价从历史高点下跌了 70%，该公司已经失去了市场的青睐，但实际上它对投资者来说是一个引人注目的选择。</p>
</div><h2>Here's why you should buy Alibaba stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该购买阿里巴巴股票的原因</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba's Tmall and Taobao platforms collectively control about half of China's e-commerce market (plus a significant share in a handful of neighboring countries). The other half is mostly split between Temu parent <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> and <strong>JD.com</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的天猫和淘宝平台共同控制了中国电子商务市场约一半的份额（以及在一些邻国的显著份额）。另一半主要由 Temu 母公司 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京东</strong> 分割。</p>
</div><p>The roughly $60 billion of annual revenue from its online marketplaces make up less than half of the company's overall top line, however. The remaining segments include of a logistics operation called Cainiao, a cloud computing arm, and international e-commerce, among others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，来自其在线市场的约 600 亿美元年收入仅占公司整体收入的一半。其余部分包括一个名为菜鸟的物流业务、一个云计算部门以及国际电子商务等。</p>
</div><p>Like many companies, Alibaba saw its business surge early in the pandemic only to experience a growth hangover as the crisis waned. However, it's on the upswing again with third-quarter revenue up 5% year over year and net income rising nearly 60%. This progress extends top-line momentum the company has enjoyed since early last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与许多公司一样，阿里巴巴在疫情初期经历了业务激增，但随着危机的减退，增长出现了滞后。然而，随着第三季度收入同比增长 5% 和净收入几乎增长 60%，它再次回升。这一进展延续了公司自去年初以来的收入增长势头。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>While Alibaba seems to finally be out of its pandemic-induced funk, the reasons to consider stepping into an Alibaba stake right now are far more specific. Four of them stand out from the rest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然阿里巴巴似乎终于走出了疫情带来的低迷，但现在考虑投资阿里巴巴的理由更加具体。其中四个理由尤为突出。</p>
</div><p><strong>1. Consumer spending in China is growing</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>1. 中国的消费支出正在增长</strong></p>
</div><p>As well as Alibaba may be managing and promoting its e-commerce business, its success is still ultimately tethered to the state of China's economy, and China's consumer spending in particular. That's why 2023 was such a tough year -- the pandemic's impact lingered far longer than anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管阿里巴巴在管理和推广其电子商务业务方面表现良好，但其成功仍然最终与中国经济的状况，尤其是中国的消费支出息息相关。这就是为什么 2023 年如此艰难——疫情的影响持续时间远超预期。</p>
</div><p>Matters are considerably more encouraging now. The country's retail sales have grown every month (on a year-over-year basis) for two consecutive years, buoyed by last year's reported GDP growth of 5.0%. Though market research outfit eMarketer predicts China's retail spending will only grow 3.5% this year, e-commerce spending could increase double digits, according to multiple reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在情况要乐观得多。该国的零售销售已经连续两年每个月（同比）增长，得益于去年报告的 5.0% 的 GDP 增长。尽管市场研究机构 eMarketer 预测中国的零售支出今年仅增长 3.5%，但根据多份报告，电子商务支出可能会增长两位数。</p>
</div><p><strong>2. The state of the company is no longer in question</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. 公司的状况不再成问题</strong></p>
</div><p>Investors keeping tabs on Alibaba for the past couple of years will remember management has struggled to develop a cohesive vision for the company. In late 2023, for example, it cancelled well-lauded plans to spin off its cloud computing arm. And early last year, it reversed its plans to shed its Cainiao logistics business. Even if these were ultimately the right decisions, investors didn't like the uncertainty around the future of these core operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年关注阿里巴巴的投资者会记得管理层一直在努力制定公司的统一愿景。例如，在 2023 年底，它取消了备受赞誉的剥离云计算部门的计划。而在去年年初，它又推翻了剥离菜鸟物流业务的计划。即使这些最终是正确的决定，投资者也不喜欢这些核心业务未来的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Now, roughly one year removed from these reversals and with concrete plans for all of its businesses (following a management shakeup), it's easier to be bullish on the company's outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，距离这些反转大约一年，并且在经历了一次管理层重组后，所有业务都有了具体计划，因此对公司的前景持乐观态度变得更加容易。</p>
</div><p><strong>3. It boasts a healthy balance sheet</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 其资产负债表健康</strong></p>
</div><p>It's not said often enough, but debt can quietly chip away at a company's market position. It limits deployable capital that might be needed to ride out tough times or when growth opportunities arise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不常被提及，但债务可以悄悄侵蚀公司的市场地位。它限制了在艰难时期或出现增长机会时可能需要的可用资本。</p>
</div><p>That's not Alibaba though. While it does have some debt, the $235 billion company is only nursing around $28.8 billion in borrowings, and it has nearly twice that amount in cash and liquid assets. Furthermore, it's generated $14.5 billion worth of free cash flow in the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但阿里巴巴并非如此。尽管它确实有一些债务，这家市值 2350 亿美元的公司仅有约 288 亿美元的借款，而其现金和流动资产几乎是这个数额的两倍。此外，过去一年它产生了 145 亿美元的自由现金流。</p>
</div><p>All of this is why Fitch Ratings rates what little debt Alibaba is carrying at a rock-solid A+. The company can handle any conceivable cash challenge or invest in growth without threatening its financial stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正因如此，惠誉评级将阿里巴巴所持的少量债务评级为坚如磐石的 A+。该公司能够应对任何可预见的现金挑战或在不威胁其财务稳定的情况下进行增长投资。</p>
</div><p><strong>4. Alibaba is an AI up-and-comer as well</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>4. 阿里巴巴也是人工智能的新兴者</strong></p>
</div><p>Finally, Alibaba has also entered the artificial intelligence fray -- one of the reasons it opted to hold onto its cloud computing business rather than shedding it back in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，阿里巴巴也进入了人工智能领域——这也是它选择保留云计算业务而不是在 2023 年剥离的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>Just a few days after Chinese start-up DeepSeek roiled the market with its low-cost, high-efficiency AI model, Alibaba unveiled its own model, Qwen 2.5-Max, which it claims is even better than DeepSeek's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在中国初创公司 DeepSeek 以其低成本、高效率的 AI 模型搅动市场几天后，阿里巴巴推出了自己的模型 Qwen 2.5-Max，声称其性能甚至优于 DeepSeek 的模型。</p>
</div><p>While it remains to be seen how competitive Alibaba will be in the AI race, the long-term opportunity is significant. Precedence Research suggests the industry is set to grow at an annualized pace of 19% through 2034. It's not unreasonable to believe Alibaba's AI efforts could become the next major growth engine for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然阿里巴巴在人工智能竞赛中的竞争力还有待观察，但长期机会是显著的。Precedence Research 预测该行业将在 2034 年前以 19% 的年均增速增长。相信阿里巴巴的人工智能努力可能成为公司下一个主要增长引擎并不为过。</p>
</div><h2>Just keep it in perspective -- and on a short leash</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>只需保持视角清晰，并保持警惕</h2>
</div><p>Though Alibaba appears to be on the upswing, it still faces tough challenges like increasing e-commerce competition and macroeconomic struggles in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管阿里巴巴似乎正在回升，但仍面临着激烈的电子商务竞争和中国宏观经济的挑战。</p>
</div><p>With shares trading at just 11 times expected 2025 earnings (and still down 70% from their all-time high), I don't believe investors are pricing in nearly enough of Alibaba's potential upside. This is a rare bargain in today's market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，阿里巴巴的股价仅为预计 2025 年收益的 11 倍（并且仍比历史高点下跌 70%），我认为投资者并没有充分考虑阿里巴巴的潜在上行空间。这在今天的市场中是一个罕见的便宜货。</p>
</div><p>Just keep in mind this is apt to remain a volatile ticker in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只需记住，这在短期内可能仍然是一个波动的股票。</p>
</div>

4 Reasons to Buy Alibaba Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

- 阿里巴巴在疫情后复苏，第三季度收入同比增长 5%。  
- 中国消费者支出回暖，电商市场前景乐观。  
- 阿里巴巴的财务状况良好，债务评级为 A+。

购买阿里巴巴股票的 4 个理由，抓住当下