<p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.35%) 在 1 月 29 日发布的财报后，股价立即下跌了 6%。这家软件巨头的收入和盈利均超出了华尔街的预期，但这并不足以让投资者认为股价有理由上涨至新高。</p>
<p>主要问题似乎在于估值。微软在过去几年加大了资本支出，以支持人工智能（AI）项目。投资者将股价推高至 33 倍的高市盈率（P/E），期待这些支出能带来强劲增长，但公司的盈利在过去三个季度仅同比增长了 10%。</p>
<p>投资者可能开始对这些投资的回报失去耐心。以下是该股票在 2025 年可能继续让投资者失望的原因。</p>
<h2>更高的资本支出并未转化为更高的增长</h2>
<p>值得肯定的是，微软在企业投资 AI 服务方面处于良好的竞争位置。微软的云收入超过 400 亿美元，同比增长 21%。与 AI 相关的收入年化达到 130 亿美元，同比增长 175%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，AI 的收入对这家总收入达到 2610 亿美元的公司几乎没有影响。此外，正如其相对较低的盈利增长率所示，这小部分额外的 AI 收入是以巨大的成本换来的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>微软在过去三年内将数据中心的容量翻了一番。2022 年日历年的资本支出不到 250 亿美元，但在过去 12 个月中已超过 550 亿美元，增长了两倍多。</p>
<p>尽管支出加速，微软的年同比盈利增长已从一年前的 20% 以上放缓至仅 10%，而这种盈利增长的减速发生在投资者为该股支付更高的市盈率时。即使考虑长期预期，分析师预计盈利年均增长率为 13%，这可能不足以支撑股价的 33 倍市盈率。</p>
<p>可以理解的是，更高的支出将对短期利润率和盈利造成压力。但即使是微软的收入增长在过去五年中也没有显示出任何加速迹象。微软上季度 12% 的年同比增长与其历史平均水平一致。</p>
<p>这引发了关于微软是否能获得足够的资本回报以证明这些巨额技术基础设施支出增加的质疑。</p>
<h2>股票相对昂贵，可能进一步下跌</h2>
<p>公平地说，微软正在投资以满足长期对 AI 和云服务的需求。但这并不意味着该股票值得购买，尤其是当其他顶级科技公司也在投资 AI 但报告的盈利增长远高于微软时。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 报告第四季度的盈利同比增长 50%，分析师还预测其未来几年的年盈利增长将达到 17%。Meta 的盈利增长速度快于微软，而该股票的估值略便宜。投资者可以以 29 倍的市盈率购买其股票。</p>
<p>微软确实看到了对 AI 的强劲需求，但 AI 服务并未产生足够的收入来对公司的整体增长率产生影响。除非微软能够加速收入或盈利增长，否则投资者不应期待该股在短期内达到新高，如果股价修正至更低的市盈率，甚至可能会有更多下行空间。</p>

微软

<p>微软在发布第二财季财报后，股价下跌了 6%，尽管其收入和盈利均超出预期。这一下降归因于人工智能项目的高资本支出，这些支出并未转化为显著的盈利增长，同比仅增长了 10%。由于市盈率高达 33 且收入增长缓慢，投资者的耐心正在减弱。竞争对手如 Meta 的盈利增长速度更快且估值更低，这引发了人们对微软是否能够证明其股价合理性的担忧。如果增长没有改善，股价可能会进一步下跌</p>

<p>Share prices of <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.35%) were down 6% immediately following its fiscal second-quarter earnings report on Jan. 29. The software leader delivered revenue and earnings that topped Wall Street's expectations, but it wasn't enough for investors to justify bidding the share price to new highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.35%) 在 1 月 29 日发布的财报后，股价立即下跌了 6%。这家软件巨头的收入和盈利均超出了华尔街的预期，但这并不足以让投资者认为股价有理由上涨至新高。</p>
</div><p>The main issue seems to be valuation. Microsoft has accelerated its capital expenditures over the past few years to support artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. Investors have bid the share price up to a high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 33 anticipating those expenditures to drive strong growth, but the company's earnings have increased just 10% year over year for the last three quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要问题似乎在于估值。微软在过去几年加大了资本支出，以支持人工智能（AI）项目。投资者将股价推高至 33 倍的高市盈率（P/E），期待这些支出能带来强劲增长，但公司的盈利在过去三个季度仅同比增长了 10%。</p>
</div><p>Investors may be starting to lose patience waiting for these investments to pay off. Here's why the stock could continue to disappoint investors in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能开始对这些投资的回报失去耐心。以下是该股票在 2025 年可能继续让投资者失望的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Higher capital spending is not translating to higher growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更高的资本支出并未转化为更高的增长</h2>
</div><p>To its credit, Microsoft is in a solid competitive position to benefit from enterprise investment in AI services. Microsoft's cloud revenue surpassed $40 billion and grew 21% year over year. AI-related revenue is up to $13 billion on an annualized basis, and up 175% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得肯定的是，微软在企业投资 AI 服务方面处于良好的竞争位置。微软的云收入超过 400 亿美元，同比增长 21%。与 AI 相关的收入年化达到 130 亿美元，同比增长 175%。</p>
</div><p>Still, the revenue from AI is barely moving the needle for a company generating $261 billion in total revenue across all products. Moreover, as its relatively low rate of earnings growth indicates, this small amount of additional AI revenue is coming at a big cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，AI 的收入对这家总收入达到 2610 亿美元的公司几乎没有影响。此外，正如其相对较低的盈利增长率所示，这小部分额外的 AI 收入是以巨大的成本换来的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft doubled its data center capacity over the past three years. Capital expenditures during calendar 2022 were under $25 billion but have more than doubled to $55 billion over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软在过去三年内将数据中心的容量翻了一番。2022 年日历年的资本支出不到 250 亿美元，但在过去 12 个月中已超过 550 亿美元，增长了两倍多。</p>
</div><p>Despite this accelerated spending curve, Microsoft's year-over-year earnings growth has slowed from over 20% a year ago to just 10%, and this deceleration in earnings growth comes as investors are paying a higher P/E multiple for the shares. Even considering long-term estimates, analysts expect earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 13%, which may not be enough to support the stock's 33 P/E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管支出加速，微软的年同比盈利增长已从一年前的 20% 以上放缓至仅 10%，而这种盈利增长的减速发生在投资者为该股支付更高的市盈率时。即使考虑长期预期，分析师预计盈利年均增长率为 13%，这可能不足以支撑股价的 33 倍市盈率。</p>
</div><p>It's understandable that higher spending will pressure near-term margins and earnings. But even Microsoft's revenue growth hasn't shown any acceleration over the past five years. Microsoft's 12% year-over-year increase last quarter is consistent with its historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以理解的是，更高的支出将对短期利润率和盈利造成压力。但即使是微软的收入增长在过去五年中也没有显示出任何加速迹象。微软上季度 12% 的年同比增长与其历史平均水平一致。</p>
</div><p>This raises questions about whether Microsoft is earning the returns on capital to justify these massive spending increases in technology infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这引发了关于微软是否能获得足够的资本回报以证明这些巨额技术基础设施支出增加的质疑。</p>
</div><h2>The stock is relatively expensive and could fall further</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票相对昂贵，可能进一步下跌</h2>
</div><p>To be fair, Microsoft is investing to meet demand for AI and cloud services over the long term. But that doesn't make the stock a buy, especially when there are other top tech companies investing in AI but also reporting much higher earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，微软正在投资以满足长期对 AI 和云服务的需求。但这并不意味着该股票值得购买，尤其是当其他顶级科技公司也在投资 AI 但报告的盈利增长远高于微软时。</p>
</div><p>For example, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> reported Q4 earnings growth of 50% year over year, and analysts are also forecasting its earnings to grow 17% annually over the next several years. Meta is growing earnings faster than Microsoft, while the stock's valuation is slightly cheaper. Investors can buy shares for 29 times earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 报告第四季度的盈利同比增长 50%，分析师还预测其未来几年的年盈利增长将达到 17%。Meta 的盈利增长速度快于微软，而该股票的估值略便宜。投资者可以以 29 倍的市盈率购买其股票。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is certainly seeing robust demand for AI, but AI services are not generating enough revenue to make an impact on the company's overall growth rate. Unless Microsoft can accelerate revenue or earnings growth, investors shouldn't expect the stock to hit new highs anytime soon, and there could even be more downside if the stock corrects to a lower P/E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软确实看到了对 AI 的强劲需求，但 AI 服务并未产生足够的收入来对公司的整体增长率产生影响。除非微软能够加速收入或盈利增长，否则投资者不应期待该股在短期内达到新高，如果股价修正至更低的市盈率，甚至可能会有更多下行空间。</p>
</div>

Microsoft Stock Is Falling as Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Is Getting More Expensive

- 微软发布的财报超出预期，但股价仍下跌 6%。  
- 资本支出增加未能带来相应的收益增长，年增长仅 10%。  
- 投资者对未来增长的耐心可能正在减弱，股价面临进一步下跌风险。

由于人工智能（AI）增长成本增加，微软股票下跌