<p>过去一周左右对 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.61%) 来说非常艰难。由于中国初创公司 DeepSeek 透露其开发的人工智能（AI）模型成本远低于这家科技巨头迄今为止的支出，该公司的巨额人工智能基础设施投资受到审查。这使得微软的股价大幅下跌。</p>
<p>在 2024 年 12 月 31 日结束的 2025 财年第二季度业绩发布后，微软的股票承受了更大的压力。尽管公司轻松超越了华尔街的盈利和收入预期，但其对当前季度的收入指引低于分析师的预期。</p>
<p>所有这些都解释了为什么自 1 月 27 日 DeepSeek 的消息震撼了人工智能界以来，微软的股票下跌超过 5%。但这是否是聪明投资者在低迷时购买这只 “七大奇迹” 股票的机会呢？让我们来看看。</p>
<h2>人工智能推动微软云业务的巨大增长</h2>
<p>在上一季度，微软的收入同比增长 12%，公司的云业务在推动这一两位数增长中发挥了核心作用。智能云业务的收入同比增长 19%。微软的 Azure 云服务因公司在其平台上提供的人工智能应用的快速增长而获得了 13 个百分点的提升。</p>
<p>公司指出，上个季度其人工智能服务收入激增 157%，超出预期。然而，这家科技巨头面临着 “需求持续高于我们的可用能力” 的限制。因此，Azure 收入的 31% 增长略低于分析师的预期。</p>
<p>然而，投资者应更仔细地关注整体情况。微软的人工智能产品需求如此强劲，以至于公司在合同规模和预订方面出现了显著增长。由于 “OpenAI 的 Azure 承诺”，该季度商业预订激增 67%。这一数字显著高于去年同期商业预订 17% 的增长。</p>
<p>由于商业预订是指微软与大型客户签署的新合同，因此这一指标的显著增长对公司的未来是个好兆头。微软强劲的未来收入管道也体现在上个季度 2980 亿美元的剩余履约义务（RPO）中。该指标指的是公司未来将履行并确认作为收入的合同总价值，同比增加 34%。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，微软将加大基础设施支出，以努力在未来履行这些合同，这理应推动未来的增长加速。上个季度，公司在资本支出方面投入了 226 亿美元，超过了 209.5 亿美元的市场共识预期。</p>
<p>微软指出，“我们超过一半的云和人工智能相关支出用于将支持未来 15 年及更长时间的长期资产。” 公司在云和人工智能基础设施上的剩余支出主要用于服务器基础设施，如图形处理单元（GPU）和中央处理单元（CPU），以便迅速履行其庞大的 RPO。</p>
<p>这也解释了为什么微软的盈利增长速度低于其收入增长速度。然而，好的一面是，微软预计到当前财年结束时，其人工智能能力将与需求相匹配，这得益于其资本支出的显著增加。这将为未来更强劲的增长铺平道路。</p>
<h2>现在值得购买这只股票吗？</h2>
<p>我们已经看到微软有大量未完成的合同。事实上，其 RPO 的规模高于公司在过去 12 个月中产生的 2540 亿美元收入。未来微软的 RPO 增长加速并不令人惊讶。根据 Grand View Research，云人工智能服务市场预计到 2030 年将实现近 40% 的年增长。</p>
<p>以上所有因素都告诉我们，分析师预计微软的盈利增长将在 2025 财年实现 11% 的增长，达到每股 13.15 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png"/></p>
<p>微软当前财年每股收益预期数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>上面的图表显示，微软在未来两个财年内的盈利将分别增长 14% 和 17%。因此，在最近的回调后购买这只股票可能是个好主意，因为它目前的市盈率为 33 倍，符合以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数的市盈率水平。</p>
<p>由于微软能够抓住云基础人工智能服务市场的巨大可寻址机会，其盈利增长的潜在改善指向了这只人工智能股票的光明未来。</p>

微软

<p>微软的股票因其人工智能投资受到审查以及营收指引低于预期而下跌超过 5%，尽管其盈利预期超出市场预期。然而，该公司的云业务表现强劲，营收增长 19%，人工智能服务营收激增 157%。微软拥有强大的未来收入管道，剩余履约义务达到 2980 亿美元，并计划增加基础设施支出。分析师预计盈利增长将加速，这使得该股票在以 33 倍市盈率交易时成为投资者的潜在买入机会，与纳斯达克 100 指数相符</p>

<p>The past week or so have been rough for <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.61%). The company's massive investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure came under scrutiny following Chinese start-up DeepSeek's revelation that it has developed AI models at a fraction of the cost that the tech giant has spent so far. This sent Microsoft shares into a tailspin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一周左右对 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.61%) 来说非常艰难。由于中国初创公司 DeepSeek 透露其开发的人工智能（AI）模型成本远低于这家科技巨头迄今为止的支出，该公司的巨额人工智能基础设施投资受到审查。这使得微软的股价大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft stock came under more pressure following the release of results for its fiscal 2025's second quarter (ended Dec. 31, 2024) on Jan. 29. Though the company beat Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations easily, its revenue guidance for the current quarter was lower than what analysts were expecting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 12 月 31 日结束的 2025 财年第二季度业绩发布后，微软的股票承受了更大的压力。尽管公司轻松超越了华尔街的盈利和收入预期，但其对当前季度的收入指引低于分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>All this explains why Microsoft stock is down more than 5% since Jan. 27, when DeepSeek's news rocked the AI world. But is this an opportunity for savvy investors to buy this Magnificent Seven stock on the dip? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都解释了为什么自 1 月 27 日 DeepSeek 的消息震撼了人工智能界以来，微软的股票下跌超过 5%。但这是否是聪明投资者在低迷时购买这只 “七大奇迹” 股票的机会呢？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><h2>AI is driving tremendous growth in Microsoft's cloud business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能推动微软云业务的巨大增长</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's revenue rose 12% year over year in the previous quarter, with the company's cloud business playing a central role in driving this double-digit growth. It recorded a 19% year-over-year increase in revenue from the Intelligent Cloud business. Microsoft's Azure cloud services got a boost of 13 percentage points from the fast-growing demand for AI applications that the company has been offering on its platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上一季度，微软的收入同比增长 12%，公司的云业务在推动这一两位数增长中发挥了核心作用。智能云业务的收入同比增长 19%。微软的 Azure 云服务因公司在其平台上提供的人工智能应用的快速增长而获得了 13 个百分点的提升。</p>
</div><p>The company points out that it witnessed a whopping 157% jump in AI services revenue last quarter, exceeding its expectations. However, the tech giant faced constraints as &#34;demand continued to be higher than our available capacity.&#34; As a result, the 31% jump in Azure revenue fell slightly below analysts' expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司指出，上个季度其人工智能服务收入激增 157%，超出预期。然而，这家科技巨头面临着 “需求持续高于我们的可用能力” 的限制。因此，Azure 收入的 31% 增长略低于分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>However, investors will do well to take a closer look at the bigger picture. The demand for Microsoft's AI offerings is so solid that the company has been witnessing a major uptick in contract sizes and bookings. It saw a terrific jump of 67% in commercial bookings during the quarter on the back of &#34;Azure commitments from OpenAI.&#34; That number is significantly higher than the 17% increase in commercial bookings in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者应更仔细地关注整体情况。微软的人工智能产品需求如此强劲，以至于公司在合同规模和预订方面出现了显著增长。由于 “OpenAI 的 Azure 承诺”，该季度商业预订激增 67%。这一数字显著高于去年同期商业预订 17% 的增长。</p>
</div><p>As commercial bookings refer to the new contracts signed by Microsoft with large customers, the impressive jump in this metric bodes well for the company's future. Microsoft's robust future revenue pipeline is also evident from its remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $298 billion in the previous quarter. This metric, which refers to the total value of the company's contracts that will be fulfilled in the future and recognized as revenue, increased by 34% from the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于商业预订是指微软与大型客户签署的新合同，因此这一指标的显著增长对公司的未来是个好兆头。微软强劲的未来收入管道也体现在上个季度 2980 亿美元的剩余履约义务（RPO）中。该指标指的是公司未来将履行并确认作为收入的合同总价值，同比增加 34%。</p>
</div><p>Not surprisingly, Microsoft is going to ramp up its infrastructure spending as it strives to fulfill these contracts in the future, which should ideally lead to an acceleration in growth going forward. The company allocated $22.6 billion toward capital expenditure last quarter, which was above the $20.95 billion consensus estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，微软将加大基础设施支出，以努力在未来履行这些合同，这理应推动未来的增长加速。上个季度，公司在资本支出方面投入了 226 亿美元，超过了 209.5 亿美元的市场共识预期。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft points out that &#34;more than half of our cloud and AI-related spend was on long-lived assets that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond.&#34; The company's remaining spending on cloud and AI infrastructure is directed toward server infrastructure such as graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing units (CPUs), as it rushes to fulfill the massive RPO it is sitting on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软指出，“我们超过一半的云和人工智能相关支出用于将支持未来 15 年及更长时间的长期资产。” 公司在云和人工智能基础设施上的剩余支出主要用于服务器基础设施，如图形处理单元（GPU）和中央处理单元（CPU），以便迅速履行其庞大的 RPO。</p>
</div><p>This also explains why Microsoft's earnings grew at a slower pace than its revenue last quarter. However, the good part is that Microsoft is expecting its AI capacity to match demand by the end of the current fiscal year, owing to the substantial increase in its capital expenses. That should pave the way for stronger growth going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也解释了为什么微软的盈利增长速度低于其收入增长速度。然而，好的一面是，微软预计到当前财年结束时，其人工智能能力将与需求相匹配，这得益于其资本支出的显著增加。这将为未来更强劲的增长铺平道路。</p>
</div><h2>Is the stock worth buying now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在值得购买这只股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>We have already seen that Microsoft has a massive backlog of contracts. In fact, the size of its RPO is higher than the $254 billion revenue that the company has generated in the past 12 months. It won't be surprising to see Microsoft's RPO growth accelerating in the future. The cloud AI services market is expected to clock almost 40% annual growth through 2030, according to Grand View Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们已经看到微软有大量未完成的合同。事实上，其 RPO 的规模高于公司在过去 12 个月中产生的 2540 亿美元收入。未来微软的 RPO 增长加速并不令人惊讶。根据 Grand View Research，云人工智能服务市场预计到 2030 年将实现近 40% 的年增长。</p>
</div><p>All of the above tell us why analysts are expecting Microsoft's earnings growth to step on the gas following an 11% jump in its bottom line in fiscal 2025 to $13.15 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以上所有因素都告诉我们，分析师预计微软的盈利增长将在 2025 财年实现 11% 的增长，达到每股 13.15 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软当前财年每股收益预期数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The chart above points toward an increase of 14% and 17% in Microsoft's earnings over the next two fiscal years. That's why it may be a good idea to buy this stock following its recent pullback, as it is trading at 33 times earnings right now, which is in line with the tech-laden <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index's earnings multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上面的图表显示，微软在未来两个财年内的盈利将分别增长 14% 和 17%。因此，在最近的回调后购买这只股票可能是个好主意，因为它目前的市盈率为 33 倍，符合以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数的市盈率水平。</p>
</div><p>A potential improvement in Microsoft's earnings growth thanks to its ability to tap the huge addressable opportunity in the cloud-based AI services market points toward a bright future for this AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于微软能够抓住云基础人工智能服务市场的巨大可寻址机会，其盈利增长的潜在改善指向了这只人工智能股票的光明未来。</p>
</div>

Is Microsoft Stock a Buy Now?

- 微软因中国初创公司 DeepSeek 的 AI 模型成本低于其投资而遭受股价下跌。  
- 尽管财报超出预期，但未来收入指引低于分析师预期，导致股价下滑。  
- 随着 AI 服务需求强劲，微软的商业预订增长 67%，未来增长前景乐观。  

微软的股票现在值得购买吗？