<p>截至目前，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -2.40%）的市值高达 3.4 万亿美元。这不仅与一些大国的 GDP 数据相媲美，还使消费科技业务成为全球最有价值的企业。</p>
<p>苹果无疑让早期投资者变得富有，因为这只消费品股票在过去 30 年中飙升了 61,240%。如果你错过了这一令人难以置信的增长，现在以清晰的视角来看待这家公司是非常重要的。</p>
<p>今天购买苹果股票能让你一生受益吗？</p>
<h2>地球上最好的企业之一</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，苹果是一家出色的公司。连伟大的沃伦·巴菲特也同意这一观点，因为 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在近十年来一直是其重要股东。</p>
<p>苹果的创新无与伦比。该公司开发了一些世界上最受欢迎的硬件设备。举例来说，它并不是第一个推出个人电脑、MP3 播放器、笔记本电脑、智能手机或耳机的公司，但它无疑是最好的。从旧产品到今天的产品，如 MacBook、iPhone、AirPods 和 Watch，苹果在激发兴奋和需求方面做得令人难以置信。</p>
<p>再加上公司的服务和软件，苹果创造了一个强大的生态系统，支持其几乎无可动摇的竞争地位。全球活跃的苹果设备接近 24 亿台，使得该公司在推出新功能时拥有无与伦比的分销和覆盖范围，最近推出的就是苹果智能助手。</p>
<p>所有这些都导致了巨大的盈利能力。2024 财年（截至 9 月 28 日）的净收入总计 937 亿美元，占总收入的 24%。这一意外之财使管理层能够在上个财年回购价值 950 亿美元的股票，这并不是不寻常的情况。</p>
<p>投资资本回报率（ROIC）通常被视为衡量企业是否建立经济护城河的最重要指标。苹果在过去十年的 ROIC 平均达到 37%，使其进入了精英类别。</p>
<h2>增长前景</h2>
<p>在最近的财季（2025 财年第一季度截至 12 月 28 日），苹果的收入达到了 1243 亿美元。尽管这一数字超出了华尔街的预期，但仅比去年同期增长了 4%。毫无疑问，在如此庞大的销售基础上推动增长是困难的。</p>
<p>苹果的旗舰产品仍然是 iPhone，第一季度的收入占总收入的一半以上。691 亿美元的销售额让华尔街感到失望，较 2024 财年第一季度下降了 1%。</p>
<p>值得称赞的是，苹果推出的新产品取得了显著成功。然而，问题在于，这些产品都不太可能与 iPhone 相匹敌。</p>
<p>这意味着该公司可能需要找到一款革命性产品来重新启动增长。考虑到苹果放弃了制造电动车的雄心，我对该公司能否推出具有市场潜力的新硬件设备以推动其达到新高度并不自信。</p>
<h2>不要盲目追逐苹果</h2>
<p>那些几十年前大胆且幸运地购买股票的投资者受益匪浅。然而，对于那些现在希望通过这只股票改变一生的人来说，最好认真降低期望。</p>
<p>除了苹果增长前景较为疲软外，分析师预计未来三年每股收益（EPS）年化增长为 10.8%，其估值并不具吸引力。即使股票距离 12 月的峰值下跌了 12%，这一点依然成立。</p>
<p>股票的市盈率为 36.2，受益于近年来的巨大涨幅。目前的估值接近过去十年的最高水平，显示出市场对该公司的乐观情绪。</p>
<p>没有人会质疑苹果是一家世界级的企业。但这只股票并不会让你一生受益。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果公司（Apple Inc.，股票代码：AAPL）的市值为 3.4 万亿美元，使其成为全球最有价值的公司。尽管在过去 30 年中增长了 61,240%，但当前的增长前景受到抑制，预计 2025 年第一季度的收入仅增长 4%，且 iPhone 销量令人失望。分析师预计未来三年每股收益年增长率为 10.8%，但该股票的市盈率为 36.2，表明目前可能不是一个吸引人的投资时机。尽管苹果仍然是一家强大的企业，但潜在投资者应对未来回报管理好自己的预期</p>

<p>As of this writing, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -2.40%) carries a gargantuan market cap of $3.4 trillion. This not only rivals the GDP figures of some large nations, but it makes the consumer technology business the world's most valuable enterprise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -2.40%）的市值高达 3.4 万亿美元。这不仅与一些大国的 GDP 数据相媲美，还使消费科技业务成为全球最有价值的企业。</p>
</div><p>Apple has surely made its early investors wealthy, as the consumer discretionary stock has soared 61,240% in the past 30 years. If you missed this incredible rise, it's important to look at the company today with clear vision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果无疑让早期投资者变得富有，因为这只消费品股票在过去 30 年中飙升了 61,240%。如果你错过了这一令人难以置信的增长，现在以清晰的视角来看待这家公司是非常重要的。</p>
</div><p>Could buying Apple shares today set you up for life?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天购买苹果股票能让你一生受益吗？</p>
</div><h2>One of the best businesses on Earth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>地球上最好的企业之一</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying that Apple is a wonderful company. Even the great Warren Buffett agrees with this view, as <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> has been a sizable shareholder for nearly a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，苹果是一家出色的公司。连伟大的沃伦·巴菲特也同意这一观点，因为 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在近十年来一直是其重要股东。</p>
</div><p>Apple's innovation is second to none. The business has developed some of the most popular hardware devices the world has ever seen. It wasn't the first to launch a PC, MP3 player, laptop, smartphone, or headphones, for example, but it certainly was the best. From products of old to those of today, like the MacBook, iPhone, AirPods, and Watch, Apple has done an unbelievable job driving excitement and demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的创新无与伦比。该公司开发了一些世界上最受欢迎的硬件设备。举例来说，它并不是第一个推出个人电脑、MP3 播放器、笔记本电脑、智能手机或耳机的公司，但它无疑是最好的。从旧产品到今天的产品，如 MacBook、iPhone、AirPods 和 Watch，苹果在激发兴奋和需求方面做得令人难以置信。</p>
</div><p>Add this to the company's services and software, and Apple has created a powerful ecosystem that supports its virtually unassailable competitive position. There are nearly 2.4 billion active Apple devices in the world, giving the business unmatched distribution and reach when it comes to launching new features, most recently with Apple Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上公司的服务和软件，苹果创造了一个强大的生态系统，支持其几乎无可动摇的竞争地位。全球活跃的苹果设备接近 24 亿台，使得该公司在推出新功能时拥有无与伦比的分销和覆盖范围，最近推出的就是苹果智能助手。</p>
</div><p>All this has resulted in tremendous profitability. Net income totaled $93.7 billion in fiscal 2024 (ended Sept. 28), equal to 24% of total revenue. That windfall allowed management to repurchase $95 billion worth of shares last fiscal year, which is not an unusual occurrence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都导致了巨大的盈利能力。2024 财年（截至 9 月 28 日）的净收入总计 937 亿美元，占总收入的 24%。这一意外之财使管理层能够在上个财年回购价值 950 亿美元的股票，这并不是不寻常的情况。</p>
</div><p>Return on invested capital (ROIC) is often viewed as the single most important indicator of whether a business has developed an economic moat. Apple's ROIC in the past decade has averaged a superb 37%, putting it in an elite category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资资本回报率（ROIC）通常被视为衡量企业是否建立经济护城河的最重要指标。苹果在过去十年的 ROIC 平均达到 37%，使其进入了精英类别。</p>
</div><h2>Growth prospects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长前景</h2>
</div><p>In the most recent fiscal quarter (Q1 2025 ended Dec. 28), Apple generated $124.3 billion in revenue. While this came in ahead of Wall Street expectations, it only represented a 4% year-over-year increase. Unsurprisingly, it's difficult to move the needle on such a large sales base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的财季（2025 财年第一季度截至 12 月 28 日），苹果的收入达到了 1243 亿美元。尽管这一数字超出了华尔街的预期，但仅比去年同期增长了 4%。毫无疑问，在如此庞大的销售基础上推动增长是困难的。</p>
</div><p>Apple's flagship product remains the iPhone, which accounted for more than half of the revenue in the first quarter. The $69.1 billion sales figure disappointed Wall Street, and it showed a 1% drop from Q1 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的旗舰产品仍然是 iPhone，第一季度的收入占总收入的一半以上。691 亿美元的销售额让华尔街感到失望，较 2024 财年第一季度下降了 1%。</p>
</div><p>To its credit, Apple has introduced new products that have found remarkable success. The issue, however, is that none of them will likely match that of the iPhone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得称赞的是，苹果推出的新产品取得了显著成功。然而，问题在于，这些产品都不太可能与 iPhone 相匹敌。</p>
</div><p>That means that the business must probably find a revolutionary product to jump-start growth. Given that Apple abandoned its ambition to build an electric vehicle, I'm not confident the company can come up with a new hardware device with the market potential to propel it to new heights.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着该公司可能需要找到一款革命性产品来重新启动增长。考虑到苹果放弃了制造电动车的雄心，我对该公司能否推出具有市场潜力的新硬件设备以推动其达到新高度并不自信。</p>
</div><h2>Don't reach for the Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不要盲目追逐苹果</h2>
</div><p>Investors who were bold and lucky enough to scoop up shares decades ago have benefited greatly. However, for those looking at the stock right now in the hopes it can set you up for life, it's best to seriously temper expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些几十年前大胆且幸运地购买股票的投资者受益匪浅。然而，对于那些现在希望通过这只股票改变一生的人来说，最好认真降低期望。</p>
</div><p>Besides Apple's softer growth prospects, with analysts projecting annualized earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10.8% over the next three years, the valuation is not compelling. That's true even though the stock is 12% off its peak from December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了苹果增长前景较为疲软外，分析师预计未来三年每股收益（EPS）年化增长为 10.8%，其估值并不具吸引力。即使股票距离 12 月的峰值下跌了 12%，这一点依然成立。</p>
</div><p>Shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.2, driven by fantastic gains in recent years. The current valuation is near its most expensive level in the past decade, showcasing how much optimism the market has toward the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的市盈率为 36.2，受益于近年来的巨大涨幅。目前的估值接近过去十年的最高水平，显示出市场对该公司的乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>No one questions that Apple is a world-class business. But the stock isn't going to set you up for life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有人会质疑苹果是一家世界级的企业。但这只股票并不会让你一生受益。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Apple Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- 苹果公司市值达 3.4 万亿美元，成为全球最有价值的企业。  
- 2024 财年净收入为 937 亿美元，回购 950 亿美元股票。  
- 分析师预计未来三年每股收益年增长 10.8%，但估值偏高。  

今天购买苹果股票能让你一生无忧吗？