<p>不可否认的是，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -3.19%）（GOOGL -3.27%）的云计算业务在第四季度显然未能达到预期。投资者对公司计划在人工智能（AI）上的支出也并不感到兴奋。</p>
<p>股东们为此付出了代价，周二公司发布第四季度财报后，股价大幅下跌。</p>
<p>不过，不要过于惊慌于这种看跌反应。有几个重要细节支持了该股票的整体看涨论点，但在财报发布后的喧嚣中被掩盖了。</p>
<h2>从数字看</h2>
<p>截至 12 月的三个月里，Alphabet 的收入为 965 亿美元，每股利润为 2.15 美元。两者均较去年同期有所上升，基本符合预期。</p>
<p>不过，所有的目光都集中在公司的云业务上，但它未能令人满意。尽管云收入接近 120 亿美元，同比增长 30%，产生的营业收入略低于 21 亿美元，但分析师们预计的收入接近 122 亿美元。小幅的短缺突显了 Alphabet 云计算增长放缓的事实。</p>
<p>不过，如下图所示，自 2020 年初以来，Google Cloud 的收入和利润保持着相同的前进势头。从技术和数学的角度来看，第四季度的云收入增长速度慢于第三季度的 36% 的增长，但第三季度的加速增长在某种程度上是个例外。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWdvb2dsZS1jbG91ZC1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWdvb2dsZS1jbG91ZC1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：Alphabet Inc. 作者图表。</p>
<p>整体来看，收益勉强超过每股 2.13 美元的预期，而收入则比分析师预测的 965.6 亿美元少了几百万美元。这两者都未能反映出 Alphabet 通常强劲的超预期表现。</p>
<p>不过，再仔细看看这些数字会发现，除了 Google Network 外，Alphabet 的所有核心利润中心的销售和营业收入都经历了强劲的增长。造成整体失望的主要是 “其他赌注” 部门。其收入从 2023 年最后一个季度的 6.57 亿美元下降到 12 个月后的 4 亿美元，而其亏损则从 8.63 亿美元恶化到近 12 亿美元。如果不是因为这个失误，Alphabet 本可以轻松超出整体预期。</p>
<p>其他赌注部门是其最具实验性和成本最高的项目所在，如机器人出租车 Waymo、生命科学品牌 Verily 以及其机器人软件 Intrinsic。这些努力伴随着高风险、高成本和高回报，但它们并不容易产生一致或可预测的结果。</p>
<p>尽管如此，尽管公司的云计算业务面临报告的阻力，其他赌注部门的季度表现不佳，Alphabet 从未像现在这样产生更多的收入或利润。其利润率也仍然保持在 32.1% 的强劲水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWFscGhhYmV0LXJlc3VsdHMucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWFscGhhYmV0LXJlc3VsdHMucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：Alphabet。作者图表。</p>
<h2>机会来临</h2>
<p>那么，为什么周三会出现抛售？</p>
<p>关于 Alphabet 云业务的悲观头条新闻显然让市场感到不安，尤其是大多数报道未能提供上述两张图表所提供的背景。</p>
<p>话虽如此，建议股票在财报发布后无论管理层周二晚上说了什么，都可能面临抛售压力，这并不算牵强。</p>
<p>司法部正在施压 Alphabet 出售其 Chrome 浏览器，这削弱了其将消费者与搜索引擎连接的关键方式。而且它正在与欧盟进行一场激烈的法律斗争，以撤销对其安装在全球大多数移动设备上的 Android 操作系统处以的数十亿美元的反垄断罚款。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，令人惊讶的是，这只股票在周二晚上发布第四季度业绩前能够攀升至历史高点。相反，这种脆弱的反弹在面对即使是稍微令人担忧的数字时，竟如此脆弱，也并不令人意外。</p>
<p>投资者似乎并不太高兴公司计划在今年再花 750 亿美元用于 AI 数据中心（比预期多出 29%），而不是希望这种支出至少开始趋于平稳。</p>
<p>无论如何，不要急于得出任何全面的结论。这只股票在周二的报告前已经处于一个不寻常的位置。然后，金融媒体的几条缺乏适当背景的曲线球出现了：Alphabet 最重要的业务仍在良好增长，而其新兴业务如 AI 仍然充满希望。</p>
<p>更重要的是，即使近期的抛售尚未完全结束，周三的挫折也是一个长期的买入机会。</p>
<p>即使没有 Chrome，Alphabet 仍可能是大多数人数字连接世界的核心。根据 GlobalStats，其 Google 搜索引擎仍处理着全球约 90% 的网络搜索。</p>
<p>而 <strong>高盛</strong> 认为，全球云计算行业预计将在 2030 年前以超过 20% 的年均速度增长，而市场研究公司 Technavio 预测，全球 AI 平台市场将在 2028 年前以 45% 的年化速度扩张。</p>
<p>因此，Alphabet 面临着大量的机会。上个季度（尤其是关于上个季度的评论）并不能准确代表这家公司的潜力。这次下跌是对感兴趣的投资者的买入机会。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>Alphabet 的云计算业务未能达到第四季度的预期，导致其股票出现抛售。尽管收入为 965 亿美元，每股利润为 2.15 美元，但近 120 亿美元的云收入低于分析师的预期。公司的其他投资板块也令人失望，但总体而言，Alphabet 创造了创纪录的收入和利润率。市场的反应受到持续法律压力和对人工智能支出增加的影响。然而，分析师建议，这一跌幅为长期买入提供了机会，因为 Alphabet 的核心业务仍在持续增长</p>

<p>There's no denying it: <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG -3.19%) (GOOGL -3.27%) cloud computing business simply came up short of expectations in the fourth quarter. Investors aren't exactly thrilled with the company's intended expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI), either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否认的是，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -3.19%）（GOOGL -3.27%）的云计算业务在第四季度显然未能达到预期。投资者对公司计划在人工智能（AI）上的支出也并不感到兴奋。</p>
</div><p>Shareholders paid the price, in the form of a sizable sell-off following Tuesday's release of the company's fourth-quarter numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股东们为此付出了代价，周二公司发布第四季度财报后，股价大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Don't be too rattled by the bearish response, though. A couple of important details that support the overall bullish case for the stock were obscured by all the post-earnings noise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，不要过于惊慌于这种看跌反应。有几个重要细节支持了该股票的整体看涨论点，但在财报发布后的喧嚣中被掩盖了。</p>
</div><h2>By the numbers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从数字看</h2>
</div><p>For the three months ending in December, Alphabet turned $96.5 billion in revenue into a per-share profit of $2.15.Both were up from year-ago levels and more or less in line with expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 12 月的三个月里，Alphabet 的收入为 965 亿美元，每股利润为 2.15 美元。两者均较去年同期有所上升，基本符合预期。</p>
</div><p>All eyes were on the company's cloud business, though, which failed to satisfy. Although cloud revenue of nearly $12 billion soared 30% year over year to generate operating income of just under $2.1 billion, analysts were looking for a top-line figure of just under $12.2 billion. The small shortfall underscored the fact that Alphabet's cloud computing growth is slowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，所有的目光都集中在公司的云业务上，但它未能令人满意。尽管云收入接近 120 亿美元，同比增长 30%，产生的营业收入略低于 21 亿美元，但分析师们预计的收入接近 122 亿美元。小幅的短缺突显了 Alphabet 云计算增长放缓的事实。</p>
</div><p>Except that as the chart below shows, going all the way back to early 2020, Google Cloud's top and bottom lines are maintaining the same forward progress based on the bigger picture. From a technical and mathematical perspective, the fourth quarter's cloud revenue growth is slower than the third quarter's 36% increase, but the third quarter's accelerated growth was something of an outlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，如下图所示，自 2020 年初以来，Google Cloud 的收入和利润保持着相同的前进势头。从技术和数学的角度来看，第四季度的云收入增长速度慢于第三季度的 36% 的增长，但第三季度的加速增长在某种程度上是个例外。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWdvb2dsZS1jbG91ZC1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806628%2F020525-google-cloud-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Alphabet Inc. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Alphabet Inc. 作者图表。</p>
</div><p>Companywide, earnings barely beat expectations of $2.13 per share, while revenue was a few million bucks shy of the $96.56 billion analysts were modeling. Neither reflects Alphabet's typical strong estimate-beating form.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整体来看，收益勉强超过每股 2.13 美元的预期，而收入则比分析师预测的 965.6 亿美元少了几百万美元。这两者都未能反映出 Alphabet 通常强劲的超预期表现。</p>
</div><p>Again, though, a closer look at the numbers will show that except for the Google Network, all of Alphabet's core profit centers experienced robust growth in sales and operating income. It was the &#34;other bets&#34; division that accounted for most of the overall disappointment. Its revenue slipped from $657 million in the final quarter of 2023 to $400 million 12 months later, while its loss worsened from $863 million to nearly $1.2 million.Were it not for that stumble, Alphabet would have handily topped its overall estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，再仔细看看这些数字会发现，除了 Google Network 外，Alphabet 的所有核心利润中心的销售和营业收入都经历了强劲的增长。造成整体失望的主要是 “其他赌注” 部门。其收入从 2023 年最后一个季度的 6.57 亿美元下降到 12 个月后的 4 亿美元，而其亏损则从 8.63 亿美元恶化到近 12 亿美元。如果不是因为这个失误，Alphabet 本可以轻松超出整体预期。</p>
</div><p>The other bets segment is where you'll find its most experimental and costliest projects, like the robotaxi Waymo, the life sciences brand Verily, and its robotics software Intrinsic. These efforts carry high risks, high costs, and high payoffs, but they don't lend themselves to consistent or predictable results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他赌注部门是其最具实验性和成本最高的项目所在，如机器人出租车 Waymo、生命科学品牌 Verily 以及其机器人软件 Intrinsic。这些努力伴随着高风险、高成本和高回报，但它们并不容易产生一致或可预测的结果。</p>
</div><p>Even so, despite the company's cloud computing business' reported headwind and other bets' rough quarter, Alphabet has never generated more revenue or produced more profit than right now. Its profit margins are also still about as strong as they've ever been, at 32.1% of revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，尽管公司的云计算业务面临报告的阻力，其他赌注部门的季度表现不佳，Alphabet 从未像现在这样产生更多的收入或利润。其利润率也仍然保持在 32.1% 的强劲水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWFscGhhYmV0LXJlc3VsdHMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806628%2F020525-alphabet-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Alphabet. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Alphabet。作者图表。</p>
</div><h2>Opportunity knocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机会来临</h2>
</div><p>So why was there a sell-off on Wednesday?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么周三会出现抛售？</p>
</div><p>The dour headlines about Alphabet's cloud business understandably rattled the market, particularly given that most of the reporting failed to offer the context that the two charts above provide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于 Alphabet 云业务的悲观头条新闻显然让市场感到不安，尤其是大多数报道未能提供上述两张图表所提供的背景。</p>
</div><p>That being said, it's also not a stretch to suggest the stock was vulnerable to a post-earnings sell-off no matter what management said Tuesday evening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，建议股票在财报发布后无论管理层周二晚上说了什么，都可能面临抛售压力，这并不算牵强。</p>
</div><p>The Justice Department is pressuring Alphabet to sell its Chrome browser, undermining one of the key ways it connects consumers to its search engine.And it's fighting a brutal legal battle with the European Union to undo a multibillion-dollar antitrust fine levied against its Android operating system installed on most of the world's mobile devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>司法部正在施压 Alphabet 出售其 Chrome 浏览器，这削弱了其将消费者与搜索引擎连接的关键方式。而且它正在与欧盟进行一场激烈的法律斗争，以撤销对其安装在全球大多数移动设备上的 Android 操作系统处以的数十亿美元的反垄断罚款。</p>
</div><p>Given this backdrop, it's surprising this stock was able to climb to a record high headed into Tuesday evening's release of its fourth-quarter results. Conversely, it's not surprising this fragile rally ended up being so vulnerable to even modestly concerning numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，令人惊讶的是，这只股票在周二晚上发布第四季度业绩前能够攀升至历史高点。相反，这种脆弱的反弹在面对即使是稍微令人担忧的数字时，竟如此脆弱，也并不令人意外。</p>
</div><p>Investors don't exactly seem thrilled that the company plans to spend another $75 billion on AI data centers this year (29% more than expected) rather than seeing this spending at least begin to level off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者似乎并不太高兴公司计划在今年再花 750 亿美元用于 AI 数据中心（比预期多出 29%），而不是希望这种支出至少开始趋于平稳。</p>
</div><p>Ragardless, don't be too quick to come to any sweeping conclusions. This ticker was already in an unusual position headed into Tuesday's report. Then there were the couple of curveballs from the financial media that lacked the proper context: the fact that Alphabet's most important businesses are still growing quite well, while its newer ventures like AI remain promising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，不要急于得出任何全面的结论。这只股票在周二的报告前已经处于一个不寻常的位置。然后，金融媒体的几条缺乏适当背景的曲线球出现了：Alphabet 最重要的业务仍在良好增长，而其新兴业务如 AI 仍然充满希望。</p>
</div><p>More to the point, even if the recent selling has yet to run its full course, Wednesday's setback is a long-term buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，即使近期的抛售尚未完全结束，周三的挫折也是一个长期的买入机会。</p>
</div><p>Even without Chrome, Alphabet is likely to remain the centerpiece of most peoples' digital connection to the world. Its Google search engine still handles about 90% of the world's web searches, according to GlobalStats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使没有 Chrome，Alphabet 仍可能是大多数人数字连接世界的核心。根据 GlobalStats，其 Google 搜索引擎仍处理着全球约 90% 的网络搜索。</p>
</div><p>And <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> believes the worldwide cloud computing industry is poised to grow at an average annual pace of more than 20% through 2030, while market researcher Technavio predicts the global AI platform market will expand at an annualized pace of 45% through 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而 <strong>高盛</strong> 认为，全球云计算行业预计将在 2030 年前以超过 20% 的年均速度增长，而市场研究公司 Technavio 预测，全球 AI 平台市场将在 2028 年前以 45% 的年化速度扩张。</p>
</div><p>So there's plenty of opportunity ahead for Alphabet to tap into. Last quarter (and in particular the commentary regarding last quarter) isn't an accurate representation of this company's potential. This dip is a buying opportunity for interested investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Alphabet 面临着大量的机会。上个季度（尤其是关于上个季度的评论）并不能准确代表这家公司的潜力。这次下跌是对感兴趣的投资者的买入机会。</p>
</div>

I'd Still Buy Alphabet Stock Despite the Stumble Over Q4 Cloud Growth. Here's Why.

- Alphabet 第四季度云计算业务未达预期，导致股东抛售。  
- 尽管云收入增长放缓，但整体利润和收入创历史新高。  
- 投资者应关注长期机会，AI 和云计算市场仍具增长潜力。

尽管第四季度云业务增长出现失误，我仍然会购买 Alphabet 的股票。以下是原因