<p>很少有公司像 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) 一样从生成性人工智能 (AI) 的崛起中获益。自 2022 年 11 月 30 日 OpenAI 推出 ChatGPT 以来，该芯片制造商的股价几乎增长了八倍，到 2024 年底时，其市值约为 2.9 万亿美元。它曾短暂地成为全球最有价值的公司，目前的市值约为 2.9 万亿美元。</p>
<p>Nvidia 强劲的财务业绩在 2025 年看起来将继续保持，因为大型科技公司计划在配备其 GPU 的 AI 数据中心上花费数百亿美元。尽管 DeepSeek 的开源 R1 模型展示了软件创新在节省成本方面的潜力，科技公司仍然坚持其支出计划，甚至在增加更先进硬件的情况下也是如此。然而，现在 Nvidia 的现金牛面临的长期脆弱性比许多投资者之前看到的更为明显。</p>
<p>另外两家 AI 领导者最近的长期前景有所改善，这可能导致它们在未来几年内超越这家半导体巨头的估值。以下是两家公司，可能在三年内其股价超过 Nvidia。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYzODUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYnVpbGRpbmctYmxvY2tzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYzODUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYnVpbGRpbmctYmxvY2tzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.35%) 是 Nvidia 最大的客户之一。这个社交媒体平台 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp 背后的公司承诺在 2025 年进行 600 亿到 650 亿美元的资本支出，包括在路易斯安那州建设一个大型数据中心的计划。该数据中心将配备大量 GPU，主要由 Nvidia 提供。</p>
<p>Meta 持续投资于 AI 有充分的理由。它将从过去两年的创新中获得巨大的收益。通过将其推荐算法扩展到基于开发大型语言模型所学原则的更通用模型，它已经在 Facebook 和 Instagram 的内容推荐算法上取得了显著改善。</p>
<p>结果是更高的用户参与度和更好的广告定位。这在上个季度的广告展示量增加 6% 和每个广告的平均价格增加 14% 中得到了证明。</p>
<p>在生成性 AI 方面，Meta 也有很多收获。它可以让更多用户更容易地创建内容，进一步增加参与度和活跃用户数量。它正在开发工具，使营销人员更容易创建和测试广告活动。其 AI 驱动的 Advantage+ 购物广告在第四季度推动了 50 亿美元的广告支出，采用率正在快速增长。</p>
<p>在未来，Meta 在 WhatsApp 上为企业提供 AI 聊天机器人的机会巨大。它还将其 Meta AI 服务整合到所有产品中，包括 Ray-Ban Meta 眼镜。随着 Meta AI 扩展到 10 亿用户，它可能成为公司另一个收入来源。</p>
<p>截至目前，Meta 的股票交易价格为未来收益预期的 27.8 倍。如果考虑到息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA），其企业价值与未来 EBITDA 的比率仅为 15 倍，这个倍数看起来更具吸引力。Meta 在未来几年应该会经历显著的折旧费用，因为其资本支出大幅增加。但如果其投资如预期那样获得回报，那么以当前估值购买 Meta 的股票将是非常值得的。</p>
<p>如果 Meta 能够在未来三年内保持中 20 倍的市盈率，同时以高个位数的速度增长收益，它可能成为一只价值 3 万亿美元的股票。如果在此期间 Nvidia 的股票停滞不前，而大型科技公司寻求使 AI 盈利，它可能会超越这家芯片巨头的市值。</p>
<h2>2. Amazon</h2>
<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -4.05%) 在过去两年中其盈利能力大幅提升。自由现金流从截至 2022 年 9 月的 12 个月内的负 197 亿美元，增长到最近 12 个月的 477 亿美元。这一增长在未来几年看起来将继续。</p>
<p>推动 Amazon 近期成功的最大动力是其云计算业务 Amazon Web Services，或称 AWS。Amazon 运营着最大的公共云平台，并正在构建工具，帮助开发者在生成性 AI 的前沿基础模型上进行开发。</p>
<p>虽然 Amazon 在 2023 年被竞争对手迅速赶超，但在 2024 年表现良好。在 2023 年运营收入持平后，2024 年其运营收入飙升，截止到 9 月的 12 个月内增长了 60%。这主要得益于随着运营规模的扩大而实现的利润率提升。</p>
<p>Amazon 还通过几种重要方式提高了其核心电子商务部门的盈利能力。首先，其 Prime 会员计划持续受到欢迎，推动了强劲的订阅收入增长。其次，广告在其市场和 Prime Video 上不断增长，提供了一个极高利润率的收入来源。</p>
<p>最后，物流网络和运营的改善使其能够降低每个付费单位的运输成本，提高了运营利润率。事实上，Amazon 在过去 12 个月内的北美运营利润率达到了 5.9%，其国际报告部门在 2024 年中期实现了盈利。</p>
<p>Amazon 在 AWS 和电子商务业务的扩展上投入了大量资金。管理层预计 2024 年的资本支出将达到约 750 亿美元，并计划在 2025 年投入更多。但 Amazon 历史上在资本支出上会大幅增加，然后放缓，让这些投资产生强劲的自由现金流。当管理层放慢脚步，努力最大化其支出时，应该会看到自由现金流的进一步提升。</p>
<p>亚马逊股票目前的交易价格约为其过去自由现金流的 59 倍，略高于其历史平均水平约为 50 倍。这表明投资者预计未来自由现金流将实现更快的增长。随着未来几年自由现金流增长的实现，亚马逊的股价应该会进一步上涨，即使该倍数有所下降。这可能会在未来几年内轻松导致该股票的市值达到 3 万亿美元，最终超过英伟达。</p>

亚马逊

<p>文章预测，两个人工智能股票，Meta Platforms 和亚马逊，可能在三年内超过英伟达的估值。Meta 正在大力投资人工智能，计划在 2025 年进行 600 亿至 650 亿美元的资本支出，以提升广告定位和用户参与度。亚马逊则受益于其 AWS 云服务，自由现金流和盈利能力显著增长，主要得益于利润扩张和强劲的订阅增长。如果英伟达的增长停滞，这两家公司有可能在人工智能热潮中占据优势，超越英伟达的市值</p>

<p>Few companies have benefited from the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) as much as <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.90%). The chipmaker saw its stock price increase nearly eightfold from the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022, through the end of 2024. It's briefly spent time as the most valuable company in the world, and its current market cap sits around $2.9 trillion, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很少有公司像 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) 一样从生成性人工智能 (AI) 的崛起中获益。自 2022 年 11 月 30 日 OpenAI 推出 ChatGPT 以来，该芯片制造商的股价几乎增长了八倍，到 2024 年底时，其市值约为 2.9 万亿美元。它曾短暂地成为全球最有价值的公司，目前的市值约为 2.9 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's strong financial results look poised to continue in 2025 as big tech plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on AI data centers outfitted with its GPUs. Tech companies have remained committed to their spending plans, even after DeepSeek's open-source R1 model showed the cost-saving potential of software innovations over adding more advanced hardware. Still, there's now more apparent long-term vulnerability to Nvidia's cash cow than many investors saw previously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 强劲的财务业绩在 2025 年看起来将继续保持，因为大型科技公司计划在配备其 GPU 的 AI 数据中心上花费数百亿美元。尽管 DeepSeek 的开源 R1 模型展示了软件创新在节省成本方面的潜力，科技公司仍然坚持其支出计划，甚至在增加更先进硬件的情况下也是如此。然而，现在 Nvidia 的现金牛面临的长期脆弱性比许多投资者之前看到的更为明显。</p>
</div><p>Two other AI leaders have seen their long-term outlooks improve recently, and it could lead each of them to overtake the semiconductor giant's valuation in just a few years, if not sooner. Here are two companies that could see their stocks worth more than Nvidia within three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外两家 AI 领导者最近的长期前景有所改善，这可能导致它们在未来几年内超越这家半导体巨头的估值。以下是两家公司，可能在三年内其股价超过 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYzODUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYnVpbGRpbmctYmxvY2tzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806385%2Fgettyimages-ai-artificial-intelligence-building-blocks.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.35%) is one of Nvidia's biggest customers. The company behind social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp has committed to between $60 billion and $65 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, including plans to build a massive data center in Louisiana. That data center will be filled with GPUs, mostly supplied by Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.35%) 是 Nvidia 最大的客户之一。这个社交媒体平台 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp 背后的公司承诺在 2025 年进行 600 亿到 650 亿美元的资本支出，包括在路易斯安那州建设一个大型数据中心的计划。该数据中心将配备大量 GPU，主要由 Nvidia 提供。</p>
</div><p>There's good reason for Meta's continued investment in AI. It stands to benefit massively from the innovations of the last two years. It's already seen significant improvements to its recommendation algorithm for content across Facebook and Instagram by scaling it to a more general model based on principles it learned developing large language models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 持续投资于 AI 有充分的理由。它将从过去两年的创新中获得巨大的收益。通过将其推荐算法扩展到基于开发大型语言模型所学原则的更通用模型，它已经在 Facebook 和 Instagram 的内容推荐算法上取得了显著改善。</p>
</div><p>The result is higher engagement and better ad targeting. That's evidenced by the 6% increase in ad impressions and 14% increase in average price per ad last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是更高的用户参与度和更好的广告定位。这在上个季度的广告展示量增加 6% 和每个广告的平均价格增加 14% 中得到了证明。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to generative AI, Meta has a lot to gain as well. It can make creating content more accessible to more users, further increasing engagement and active user count. It's developing tools that make it easier for marketers to create and test ad campaigns. Its AI-powered Advantage+ shopping campaigns fueled $5 billion worth of ad spending in the fourth quarter, and adoption is growing quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在生成性 AI 方面，Meta 也有很多收获。它可以让更多用户更容易地创建内容，进一步增加参与度和活跃用户数量。它正在开发工具，使营销人员更容易创建和测试广告活动。其 AI 驱动的 Advantage+ 购物广告在第四季度推动了 50 亿美元的广告支出，采用率正在快速增长。</p>
</div><p>Further down the road, Meta has massive opportunities with AI chatbots for businesses on WhatsApp. It's also integrating its Meta AI service into all of its products, including the Ray-Ban Meta glasses. As Meta AI scales to 1 billion users, it could become another revenue source for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来，Meta 在 WhatsApp 上为企业提供 AI 聊天机器人的机会巨大。它还将其 Meta AI 服务整合到所有产品中，包括 Ray-Ban Meta 眼镜。随着 Meta AI 扩展到 10 亿用户，它可能成为公司另一个收入来源。</p>
</div><p>Meta's stock trades for 27.8 times forward earnings estimates, as of this writing. The multiple looks much more attractive if you look at earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) with an enterprise value-to-forward EBITDA ratio of just 15x. Meta should experience significant depreciation expenses over the next few years following its massive step-up in capital expenditures. But if its investments pay off as expected, it will be well worth the price for Meta's stock at its current valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，Meta 的股票交易价格为未来收益预期的 27.8 倍。如果考虑到息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA），其企业价值与未来 EBITDA 的比率仅为 15 倍，这个倍数看起来更具吸引力。Meta 在未来几年应该会经历显著的折旧费用，因为其资本支出大幅增加。但如果其投资如预期那样获得回报，那么以当前估值购买 Meta 的股票将是非常值得的。</p>
</div><p>Meta could be a $3 trillion stock within three years by maintaining a P/E ratio in the mid-20s while growing earnings at a rate in the high teens. If Nvidia stock stagnates in that period as big tech looks to make AI profitable, it could overtake the chip giant's market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Meta 能够在未来三年内保持中 20 倍的市盈率，同时以高个位数的速度增长收益，它可能成为一只价值 3 万亿美元的股票。如果在此期间 Nvidia 的股票停滞不前，而大型科技公司寻求使 AI 盈利，它可能会超越这家芯片巨头的市值。</p>
</div><h2>2. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Amazon</h2>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -4.05%) has seen its profitability explode over the last two years. Free cash flow went from negative $19.7 billion for the 12 months ending in September 2022 to $47.7 billion for the most recent 12-month period. And that growth looks poised to continue over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -4.05%) 在过去两年中其盈利能力大幅提升。自由现金流从截至 2022 年 9 月的 12 个月内的负 197 亿美元，增长到最近 12 个月的 477 亿美元。这一增长在未来几年看起来将继续。</p>
</div><p>The biggest driving force behind Amazon's recent success is its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services, or AWS. Amazon operates the largest public cloud platform, and it's building tools to help developers build on top of the leading-edge foundation models for generative AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动 Amazon 近期成功的最大动力是其云计算业务 Amazon Web Services，或称 AWS。Amazon 运营着最大的公共云平台，并正在构建工具，帮助开发者在生成性 AI 的前沿基础模型上进行开发。</p>
</div><p>While Amazon was caught flat-footed in 2023 as competitors grew quickly, it rebounded well in 2024. After a flat year of operating income in 2023, it soared in 2024, climbing 60% in the trailing 12 months ending in September. That was fueled largely by margin expansion as operations scaled to catch up to its investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Amazon 在 2023 年被竞争对手迅速赶超，但在 2024 年表现良好。在 2023 年运营收入持平后，2024 年其运营收入飙升，截止到 9 月的 12 个月内增长了 60%。这主要得益于随着运营规模的扩大而实现的利润率提升。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's also increasing the profitability of its core e-commerce segment in several important ways. First, its Prime membership program continues to be extremely popular, driving strong subscription revenue growth. Second, advertising is growing across its marketplace and on Prime Video, offering a massive source of extremely high-margin revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 还通过几种重要方式提高了其核心电子商务部门的盈利能力。首先，其 Prime 会员计划持续受到欢迎，推动了强劲的订阅收入增长。其次，广告在其市场和 Prime Video 上不断增长，提供了一个极高利润率的收入来源。</p>
</div><p>Finally, improvements to its logistics network and operations have enabled it to reduce its shipping costs per paid unit, increasing its operating margin. In fact, Amazon's North American operating margin reached 5.9% over the trailing 12 months, and its International reporting segment turned positive in mid-2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，物流网络和运营的改善使其能够降低每个付费单位的运输成本，提高了运营利润率。事实上，Amazon 在过去 12 个月内的北美运营利润率达到了 5.9%，其国际报告部门在 2024 年中期实现了盈利。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's investing a lot of money in building out both AWS and its e-commerce business. Management expects capital expenditures for 2024 to come to about $75 billion, and it plans to spend even more in 2025. But Amazon historically makes big steps up in capital expenditures before easing back and letting those investments produce strong free cash flow. When management takes its foot off the pedal and looks to make the most of all it's spent, it should see another step up in free cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 在 AWS 和电子商务业务的扩展上投入了大量资金。管理层预计 2024 年的资本支出将达到约 750 亿美元，并计划在 2025 年投入更多。但 Amazon 历史上在资本支出上会大幅增加，然后放缓，让这些投资产生强劲的自由现金流。当管理层放慢脚步，努力最大化其支出时，应该会看到自由现金流的进一步提升。</p>
</div><p>Amazon stock currently trades for about 59 times trailing free cash flow, slightly above its historical average around 50. That suggests investors are pricing in faster growth in free cash flow going forward. As that free cash flow growth comes to fruition over the next few years, Amazon should see its share price climb higher, even if that multiple comes down. That could easily result in a $3 trillion valuation for the stock in the next couple of years, eventually overtaking Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊股票目前的交易价格约为其过去自由现金流的 59 倍，略高于其历史平均水平约为 50 倍。这表明投资者预计未来自由现金流将实现更快的增长。随着未来几年自由现金流增长的实现，亚马逊的股价应该会进一步上涨，即使该倍数有所下降。这可能会在未来几年内轻松导致该股票的市值达到 3 万亿美元，最终超过英伟达。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia 3 Years From Now

- Nvidia 的市值约为 2.9 万亿美元，受益于生成式人工智能的崛起。  
- Meta 和 Amazon 计划在未来几年内大幅增加资本支出，可能超越 Nvidia 的估值。  
- Meta 预计在 2025 年支出 600 亿至 650 亿美元，Amazon 预计支出约 750 亿美元。  

预测：3 年后将比英伟达更有价值的两只人工智能（AI）股票