<p>阿斯瓦斯特·达莫达兰是纽约大学斯特恩商学院的一位杰出教授。特别是，达莫达兰专注于估值——他撰写了几本关于该主题的书籍，并经常向公众发布他的模型和预测。多年来，达莫达兰在金融记者和媒体人士中被称为 “估值之父”。</p>
<p>上周，达莫达兰发布了关于 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) 的新预测——预计股价将从当前水平（截至 2 月 5 日）下跌 37%。</p>
<p>接下来，我将详细说明达莫达兰的逻辑，以帮助解释他为何预测如此下跌。之后，我会给出我对他悲观预测的看法，说明我为何并不完全认同。</p>
<h2>DeepSeek 改变了芯片叙事……还是没有？</h2>
<p>到现在为止，你可能已经熟悉了人工智能最新的讨论点——即一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司。DeepSeek 是人工智能领域最新出现的公司，声称它开发了具有颠覆性应用的技术，成本仅为构建 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 主流模型的一小部分。</p>
<p>在达莫达兰的分析中，他表示 DeepSeek“改变了人工智能的故事”，将 “创造一个分化的人工智能市场，其中包括一部分低端人工智能产品，这些产品被商品化且竞争激烈，以及一部分高端产品。”</p>
<p>从表面上看，我理解达莫达兰的意思。如果（关键字 “如果”）DeepSeek 建立了一个与现有人工智能模型相当或更优越的平台，并且以更低的基础设施成本实现，那么英伟达作为芯片领域的王者的地位似乎会受到威胁。</p>
<p>对我来说，上述论点仍然更多的是一种理论。似乎每小时都有更多关于 DeepSeek 的报道发布，其中许多现在声称这家初创公司获得的资金远超过其最初声称的 600 万美元。如果是这样，那么英伟达就不必太担心。</p>
<p>但在一个 DeepSeek 的建设成本远低于投入 OpenAI 及其合作伙伴的资金的世界里，我仍然认为这种情况对英伟达并不是坏事。原因实际上与达莫达兰关于芯片商品化的观点相一致。</p>
<p>目前，众所周知，英伟达的许多最大客户包括云计算巨头如 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>。此外，像 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 这样的科技巨头也是英伟达最大的用户之一。还有一点也很明显，这些公司正在大力投资内部芯片技术，并与成本更低的供应商合作，如 <strong>超微半导体</strong>。</p>
<p>这些投资的理由并不是因为英伟达的芯片未能达到预期，而是因为这些企业正在寻求多样化自己的平台，并在此过程中创造节省成本的机会。随着更多芯片进入市场，这些产品无论如何都会变得有些商品化。在我看来，DeepSeek 并没有改变芯片成为商品硬件产品的叙事——反而是强化了这一观点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYyOTcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMyMjAxNzMwNC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYyOTcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMyMjAxNzMwNC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>精确数字可能更模糊，但大局讲述的是同样的故事</h2>
<p>我承认，目前唯一看起来有些模糊的领域是英伟达的增长轨迹。我认为 DeepSeek 的出现使投资者开始考虑一个不太方便（但可能）的想法，即英伟达的增长可能在某一天会以显著的速度开始减速。</p>
<p>虽然这样的担忧是合理的，但目前大科技公司似乎仍然是英伟达门口的第一批客户。Meta 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格以及微软领导层的评论都表明，未来可预见的时间内对人工智能基础设施的投资将继续。</p>
<p>很难准确确定其中有多少支出将用于英伟达，但我非常有信心，作为领先的芯片制造商，英伟达将在未来继续成为全球顶尖人工智能企业的核心。</p>
<h2>现在是购买英伟达股票的好时机吗？</h2>
<p>讽刺的是，即使英伟达最大的客户公开表示他们的资本支出（capex）预算仍然强劲，股票仍然在下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>老实说，我不会感到惊讶，如果英伟达的股票在公司于 2 月 26 日报告财报之前继续下跌。到那时，我认为投资者和分析师将拥有足够的细节，能够预测人工智能支出在短期和长期的情况。</p>
<p>我的逆向观点是，在英伟达的第四季度电话会议上，公司领导将强调一点：对其芯片的需求——包括最新和最昂贵的架构——依然强劲，并且在一段时间内应该会继续如此。</p>
<p>因此，我不会感到惊讶看到英伟达的股票开始以一种史诗般的方式反弹。就目前而言，我认为英伟达股票的下跌是绝佳的买入机会，并且认为该股票将从现在的水平大幅上涨。</p>

英伟达

<p>阿斯瓦斯特·达莫达兰（Aswath Damodaran），被誉为 “估值之父”，预测英伟达的股票将因人工智能初创公司 DeepSeek 的竞争而下跌 37%。然而，作者认为 DeepSeek 的出现可能不会对英伟达构成重大威胁，因为主要科技公司仍在持续投资于英伟达的芯片。尽管对英伟达的增长轨迹存在担忧，但对其产品的需求依然强劲，作者相信英伟达将在人工智能市场中保持核心地位。投资者可能会在英伟达于 2 月 26 日发布的财报之前看到股票波动，这可能会澄清未来的人工智能支出</p>

<p>Aswath Damodaran is an accomplished professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. In particular, Damodaran specializes in valuation -- having written several books on the topic, and often publishing his models and forecasts to the public. Over the years, Damodaran has become known as the &#34;Dean of Valuation&#34; among financial journalists and media personalities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯瓦斯特·达莫达兰是纽约大学斯特恩商学院的一位杰出教授。特别是，达莫达兰专注于估值——他撰写了几本关于该主题的书籍，并经常向公众发布他的模型和预测。多年来，达莫达兰在金融记者和媒体人士中被称为 “估值之父”。</p>
</div><p>Last week, Damodaran published a new forecast around <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) -- calling for a 37% drop in share price from current levels (as of Feb. 5).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，达莫达兰发布了关于 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) 的新预测——预计股价将从当前水平（截至 2 月 5 日）下跌 37%。</p>
</div><p>Below, I'm going to detail Damodaran's logic to help explain why he's calling for such a drop. From there, I'll give my take on why I'm not fully aligned with his bearish forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，我将详细说明达莫达兰的逻辑，以帮助解释他为何预测如此下跌。之后，我会给出我对他悲观预测的看法，说明我为何并不完全认同。</p>
</div><h2>DeepSeek changed the chip narrative...or did it?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>DeepSeek 改变了芯片叙事……还是没有？</h2>
</div><p>By now, you're probably familiar with AI's newest talking point -- namely, a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek. DeepSeek is the latest company to emerge in the AI realm, claiming it's developed game-changing applications for a fraction of the cost used to build mainstream models from OpenAI or Anthropic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到现在为止，你可能已经熟悉了人工智能最新的讨论点——即一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司。DeepSeek 是人工智能领域最新出现的公司，声称它开发了具有颠覆性应用的技术，成本仅为构建 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 主流模型的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>In Damodaran's analysis, he states that DeepSeek has &#34;changed the AI story&#34; that will &#34;create a bifurcated AI market, with a segment of low-grade AI products that is commoditized and highly competitive and a segment of premium products.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在达莫达兰的分析中，他表示 DeepSeek“改变了人工智能的故事”，将 “创造一个分化的人工智能市场，其中包括一部分低端人工智能产品，这些产品被商品化且竞争激烈，以及一部分高端产品。”</p>
</div><p>On the surface, I understand what Damodaran is getting at. If (key word &#34;If&#34;) DeepSeek has built a platform on par with or superior to existing AI models and did so with less costly infrastructure, Nvidia's position as the king of the chip realm would appear jeopardized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，我理解达莫达兰的意思。如果（关键字 “如果”）DeepSeek 建立了一个与现有人工智能模型相当或更优越的平台，并且以更低的基础设施成本实现，那么英伟达作为芯片领域的王者的地位似乎会受到威胁。</p>
</div><p>To me, the above contention is still more of a theory than anything. It seems that each hour, more stories are publishing about DeepSeek -- many of which are now alleging the start-up was funded with much more than the initial $6 million it claimed. If that's the case, then Nvidia has less to worry about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，上述论点仍然更多的是一种理论。似乎每小时都有更多关于 DeepSeek 的报道发布，其中许多现在声称这家初创公司获得的资金远超过其最初声称的 600 万美元。如果是这样，那么英伟达就不必太担心。</p>
</div><p>But in a world where DeepSeek was built for far less than funding compared to what was plowed into OpenAI and its cohorts, I still don't see such a notion as a bad thing for Nvidia. The reason actually lines up with Damodaran's point of chipware becoming commoditized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在一个 DeepSeek 的建设成本远低于投入 OpenAI 及其合作伙伴的资金的世界里，我仍然认为这种情况对英伟达并不是坏事。原因实际上与达莫达兰关于芯片商品化的观点相一致。</p>
</div><p>Right now, it's well known that many of Nvidia's largest customers include cloud hyperscalers such as <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>. Moreover, big tech giants such as <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and <strong>Tesla</strong> are also some of Nvidia's biggest adopters. What is <em>also</em> known is that many of these companies are investing heavily into internal chipware and working with lower-cost providers, such as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，众所周知，英伟达的许多最大客户包括云计算巨头如 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>。此外，像 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 这样的科技巨头也是英伟达最大的用户之一。还有一点也很明显，这些公司正在大力投资内部芯片技术，并与成本更低的供应商合作，如 <strong>超微半导体</strong>。</p>
</div><p>The rationale behind these investments is not that Nvidia's chips are falling short of expectations, but rather because these businesses are seeking ways to diversify their own platforms and create cost-saving opportunities in the process. As more chips enter the market, these products would become somewhat commoditized anyway. In my mind, DeepSeek doesn't change the narrative of chips becoming a commodity hardware product at all -- it's reinforcing the idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些投资的理由并不是因为英伟达的芯片未能达到预期，而是因为这些企业正在寻求多样化自己的平台，并在此过程中创造节省成本的机会。随着更多芯片进入市场，这些产品无论如何都会变得有些商品化。在我看来，DeepSeek 并没有改变芯片成为商品硬件产品的叙事——反而是强化了这一观点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYyOTcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMyMjAxNzMwNC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806297%2Fgettyimages-1322017304-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Precise figures may be more blurry, but the big picture tells the same story</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>精确数字可能更模糊，但大局讲述的是同样的故事</h2>
</div><p>The one area that I will concede looks a bit blurry right now is Nvidia's growth trajectory. I think DeepSeek's arrival is causing investors to consider the inconvenient (but likely) idea that Nvidia's growth could start decelerating at a meaningful pace someday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我承认，目前唯一看起来有些模糊的领域是英伟达的增长轨迹。我认为 DeepSeek 的出现使投资者开始考虑一个不太方便（但可能）的想法，即英伟达的增长可能在某一天会以显著的速度开始减速。</p>
</div><p>While such concerns are legitimate, big tech still appears to be first in line at Nvidia's doorstep for now. Recent comments from Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg as well as comments from Microsoft's leadership both indicate that investment in AI infrastructure is going to continue for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这样的担忧是合理的，但目前大科技公司似乎仍然是英伟达门口的第一批客户。Meta 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格以及微软领导层的评论都表明，未来可预见的时间内对人工智能基础设施的投资将继续。</p>
</div><p>It's difficult to determine precisely how much of that spending will be designated for Nvidia, but I am highly confident that the leading chip manufacturer will remain central to the world's top AI businesses in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难准确确定其中有多少支出将用于英伟达，但我非常有信心，作为领先的芯片制造商，英伟达将在未来继续成为全球顶尖人工智能企业的核心。</p>
</div><h2>Is now a good time to buy Nvidia stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买英伟达股票的好时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>What's ironic is that even while Nvidia's largest customers have publicly stated that their capital expenditure (capex) budgets remain robust, shares are still selling off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讽刺的是，即使英伟达最大的客户公开表示他们的资本支出（capex）预算仍然强劲，股票仍然在下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia stock continues experiencing drops until the company reports earnings on Feb. 26. By then, I think investors and analysts will have sufficient detail that could signal what AI spend is going to look like across both near- and long-term horizons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>老实说，我不会感到惊讶，如果英伟达的股票在公司于 2 月 26 日报告财报之前继续下跌。到那时，我认为投资者和分析师将拥有足够的细节，能够预测人工智能支出在短期和长期的情况。</p>
</div><p>My contrarian take is that during Nvidia's fourth-quarter call, the company's leadership will drive one point above all else: Demand for its chips -- including the latest and most expensive architectures -- remains strong and should continue that way for some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的逆向观点是，在英伟达的第四季度电话会议上，公司领导将强调一点：对其芯片的需求——包括最新和最昂贵的架构——依然强劲，并且在一段时间内应该会继续如此。</p>
</div><p>As such, I wouldn't be surprised to see shares of Nvidia begin turning around in an epic fashion. For now, I see dips in Nvidia stock as incredible buying opportunities and think the stock will soar much higher from where it is today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我不会感到惊讶看到英伟达的股票开始以一种史诗般的方式反弹。就目前而言，我认为英伟达股票的下跌是绝佳的买入机会，并且认为该股票将从现在的水平大幅上涨。</p>
</div>

The "Dean of Valuation" Says Nvidia Stock Could Plunge by 31%. Here's My Contrarian Take on Why DeepSeek Could Fuel It to New Highs, Instead.

- Aswath Damodaran 预测 Nvidia 股价将下跌 37%。  
- DeepSeek 的出现可能影响 Nvidia 的市场地位。  
- 尽管存在担忧，Nvidia 的需求仍然强劲。

“估值之王” 表示英伟达的股票可能会暴跌 31%。而我则持相反观点，认为 DeepSeek 可能会推动其创下新高