<p>这不仅仅是一家庞大的公司。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -4.05%) 也是全球最受推荐的股票之一。事实上，你很可能拥有它，或者至少在过去的某个时刻考虑过拥有它。这是有充分理由的。毕竟，它是电子商务的王者，至少在西半球是如此。</p>
<p>不过，如果你在寻找接入电子商务增长故事下一个篇章的最佳方式，可能还有更好的选择。那就是 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%)，在许多方面，它与亚马逊正好相反。这就是它如此吸引人的原因。</p>
<h2>相同，但（更）不同</h2>
<p>亚马逊不仅主导了在线购物市场。它在很大程度上创造了这个市场，在 1990 年代末互联网开始普及时，将这一理念大众化。消费者喜欢 “万物商店”，现在仍然如此。市场研究机构 eMarketer 估计，亚马逊控制了大约 40% 的在线零售行业，这占据了美国总零售支出的约 16%，根据美国人口普查局的数据。</p>
<p>然而，正如预期的那样，受欢迎的购物网站的庞大规模和自助性质（既销售又购买）带来了挑战。首要挑战是每个卖家必须面对的竞争，包括亚马逊本身。其次是在线卖家很难与客户建立深厚的关系；这些买家最终是亚马逊的客户。</p>
<p>这时，Shopify 登场了。</p>
<p>简单来说，Shopify 帮助组织建立和管理自己的电子商务存在。从数字购物车到支付处理，再到营销和库存管理（等等），这家公司帮助在线卖家独立于像亚马逊这样庞大、冷漠且拥挤的在线商城运营。Nutriseed、Worldwide Cyclery 和 Florivera Skincare 只是一些依赖 Shopify 进行在线销售的新兴品牌。通过 Shopify，这些品牌能够提供消费者日益渴望的个性化体验和真实性。</p>
<p>波士顿咨询集团报告称，约 80% 的美国消费者现在期望在商业交易中至少有一定程度的个性化体验。</p>
<p>像亚马逊这样的平台根本无法为卖家或买家提供这种有意义的选择。</p>
<h2>过去和预测的增长</h2>
<p>数字证实，越来越多的公司依赖 Shopify 所带来的替代方案。在截至 12 月的三个月中，这家公司的技术促进了 697 亿美元商品和服务的销售，同比增长 24%。这转化为近 22 亿美元的收入，同比增长 26%，延续了自 2006 年推出以来的趋势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2cb874dc73dd6d45842e6485bfa0d3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2cb874dc73dd6d45842e6485bfa0d3.png"/></p>
<p>SHOP 收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>不过，这仍然只是个开始。</p>
<p>你看，尽管 Shopify 增长迅速，但它仍然只是触及了机会的表面。人口普查局报告称，美国的电子商务市场每年的价值略超过 1.1 万亿美元，而整个零售行业的年销售额超过 7 万亿美元。随着这部分业务仍在向线上转移——并且还有很多空间可以这样做——市场研究机构 Oberlo 预测，美国电子商务市场到 2028 年将以约 9% 的年均增速增长。对于感兴趣的投资者来说，随着越来越多的卖家意识到他们有可行的替代方案，分析师社区预计 Shopify 将赢得更多的增长，继续以接近当前的速度增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY4MzcvMDIwNzI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY4MzcvMDIwNzI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者提供。</p>
<p>在美国的电子商务平台中，Shopify 控制了近三分之一的市场，尽管类似的动态在国际上也适用，Shopify 正在获得市场份额。它声称自己占据了海外电子商务技术业务的约十分之一。</p>
<h2>值得溢价的价格</h2>
<p>这些并不是说亚马逊完全无力阻止当前和潜在的卖家注册使用 Shopify。它正在应对这一威胁。例如，亚马逊减少了对第三方卖家热销产品的模仿，让其合作伙伴享受更多应得的销售。它还向卖家提供生成性人工智能工具，以便他们能够更快地创建和管理自己的商品列表。</p>
<p>Shopify 的股票也很昂贵，价格超过去年的预期收益的 90 倍，以及今年预期每股利润 1.54 美元的 70 倍以上。这可能限制了该股票短期内的上涨潜力，更不用说引发高于平均水平的波动性。</p>
<p>但这也是一个增长如此强劲且不可避免的案例，以至于市场支持溢价估值。</p>
<p>换句话说，尽管从 2022 年的低点上涨了 350% 可能令人畏惧，但可以说，股票仍然有更多空间继续这一反弹。独立管理的电子商务平台正是在线购物行业日益发展的方向。Shopify 的广泛和深度的产品意味着无论客户需要什么，它都能从中获利。</p>

SHOP

<p>这篇文章讨论了 Shopify 作为电子商务增长的一个有吸引力的替代选择的潜力。尽管亚马逊主导着在线零售市场，但 Shopify 提供个性化的电子商务解决方案，帮助卖家建立自己的品牌。Shopify 的收入显著增长，年同比增长 26%，预计将占据越来越多的美国电子商务市场。尽管其估值较高，但 Shopify 强劲的增长前景使其成为一个有吸引力的投资选择</p>

<p>It's not just an enormous company. <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -4.05%) is also one of the world's most recommended stocks. There's a good chance you own it, in fact, or have at least considered owning it at some point in the past. And for good reason. After all, it's the king of e-commerce, at least in the Western Hemisphere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅仅是一家庞大的公司。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -4.05%) 也是全球最受推荐的股票之一。事实上，你很可能拥有它，或者至少在过去的某个时刻考虑过拥有它。这是有充分理由的。毕竟，它是电子商务的王者，至少在西半球是如此。</p>
</div><p>If you're looking for the best way to plug into the next chapter of e-commerce's growth story though, there may be a better option. That's <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%), which in many ways is the opposite of what Amazon is. That's why it's such a compelling prospect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，如果你在寻找接入电子商务增长故事下一个篇章的最佳方式，可能还有更好的选择。那就是 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%)，在许多方面，它与亚马逊正好相反。这就是它如此吸引人的原因。</p>
</div><h2>The same, but (much more) different</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>相同，但（更）不同</h2>
</div><p>Amazon doesn't just dominate the online shopping market. It largely created it, mainstreaming the idea back in the late 1990s when access to the internet was first becoming commonplace. Consumers loved &#34;the everything store,&#34; and still do. Market research outfit eMarketer estimates Amazon controls roughly 40% of the online the retailing industry, which accounts for about 16% of the nation's total retail spending, according to numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊不仅主导了在线购物市场。它在很大程度上创造了这个市场，在 1990 年代末互联网开始普及时，将这一理念大众化。消费者喜欢 “万物商店”，现在仍然如此。市场研究机构 eMarketer 估计，亚马逊控制了大约 40% 的在线零售行业，这占据了美国总零售支出的约 16%，根据美国人口普查局的数据。</p>
</div><p>As might have been expected, however, the sheer size and the self-service nature (selling as well as buying) of the popular shopping website has presented challenges. Chief among them is the amount of competition every seller must contend with, including Amazon itself. A close second is the fact that it's difficult for an online seller to cultivate a deep relationship with a customer; these buyers are ultimately Amazon's customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，正如预期的那样，受欢迎的购物网站的庞大规模和自助性质（既销售又购买）带来了挑战。首要挑战是每个卖家必须面对的竞争，包括亚马逊本身。其次是在线卖家很难与客户建立深厚的关系；这些买家最终是亚马逊的客户。</p>
</div><p>Enter Shopify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这时，Shopify 登场了。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, Shopify helps organizations build and manage their own e-commerce presence. From digital shopping carts to payment processing to marketing to inventory management (and more), this company helps online sellers operate independently of huge, impersonal, and crowded online malls like Amazon. Nutriseed, Worldwide Cyclery, and Florivera Skincare are just some of the up-and-comers that rely on Shopify to sell online. With Shopify, these brands are able provide the personalized experience and authenticity that consumers increasingly crave.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，Shopify 帮助组织建立和管理自己的电子商务存在。从数字购物车到支付处理，再到营销和库存管理（等等），这家公司帮助在线卖家独立于像亚马逊这样庞大、冷漠且拥挤的在线商城运营。Nutriseed、Worldwide Cyclery 和 Florivera Skincare 只是一些依赖 Shopify 进行在线销售的新兴品牌。通过 Shopify，这些品牌能够提供消费者日益渴望的个性化体验和真实性。</p>
</div><p>Boston Consulting Group reports that around 80% of U.S. consumers now expect at least some degree of personalization experience when doing business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波士顿咨询集团报告称，约 80% 的美国消费者现在期望在商业交易中至少有一定程度的个性化体验。</p>
</div><p>A platform like Amazon's just can't meaningfully offer this option to sellers, or to buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像亚马逊这样的平台根本无法为卖家或买家提供这种有意义的选择。</p>
</div><h2>Growth, past and projected</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>过去和预测的增长</h2>
</div><p>And the numbers confirm that companies are increasingly relying on the alternative that Shopify brings to the table. For the three-month stretch ending in December, this company's tech facilitated the sale of $69.7 billion worth of goods and services, up 24% year over year. That translates into nearly $2.2 billion worth of revenue, up 26% year over year, extending a trend that's been in place since its 2006 launch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数字证实，越来越多的公司依赖 Shopify 所带来的替代方案。在截至 12 月的三个月中，这家公司的技术促进了 697 亿美元商品和服务的销售，同比增长 24%。这转化为近 22 亿美元的收入，同比增长 26%，延续了自 2006 年推出以来的趋势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2cb874dc73dd6d45842e6485bfa0d3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2cb874dc73dd6d45842e6485bfa0d3.png"/></p>
<p>SHOP Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SHOP 收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>This is still just the beginning, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这仍然只是个开始。</p>
</div><p>See, as much as Shopify's grown, it's still only scratched the surface of the opportunity. The Census Bureau reports the United States' e-commerce market alone is worth a little more than $1.1 trillion per year, while the nation's entire retail industry collectively does over $7 trillion in annual sales. With much of this business still moving online -- and plenty of room for it to do so -- market researcher Oberlo predicts the U.S. e-commerce market will grow at an average annual pace of about 9% through 2028. More to the point for interested investors, as more and more sellers recognize they've got viable alternatives to Amazon, the analyst community expects Shopify to win more of this growth to continue growing close to its current pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，尽管 Shopify 增长迅速，但它仍然只是触及了机会的表面。人口普查局报告称，美国的电子商务市场每年的价值略超过 1.1 万亿美元，而整个零售行业的年销售额超过 7 万亿美元。随着这部分业务仍在向线上转移——并且还有很多空间可以这样做——市场研究机构 Oberlo 预测，美国电子商务市场到 2028 年将以约 9% 的年均增速增长。对于感兴趣的投资者来说，随着越来越多的卖家意识到他们有可行的替代方案，分析师社区预计 Shopify 将赢得更多的增长，继续以接近当前的速度增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY4MzcvMDIwNzI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806837%2F020725-shopify-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者提供。</p>
</div><p>Credit market-leading control of nearly one-third of the United States' e-commerce platforms, mostly, although similar dynamics apply internationally, where Shopify is gaining traction. It claims about one-tenth of the overseas e-commerce tech business for itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国的电子商务平台中，Shopify 控制了近三分之一的市场，尽管类似的动态在国际上也适用，Shopify 正在获得市场份额。它声称自己占据了海外电子商务技术业务的约十分之一。</p>
</div><h2>Worth the premium price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>值得溢价的价格</h2>
</div><p>None of this is to suggest Amazon is completely powerless to discourage current and prospective sellers from signing up to sell with Shopify. It is responding to the threat. For example, Amazon dialed back the copycatting of its third-party sellers' top-selling products, letting its partners enjoy more of the sales they deserve. It's also offering generative artificial intelligence tools to its sellers so they can create and manage their listings faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些并不是说亚马逊完全无力阻止当前和潜在的卖家注册使用 Shopify。它正在应对这一威胁。例如，亚马逊减少了对第三方卖家热销产品的模仿，让其合作伙伴享受更多应得的销售。它还向卖家提供生成性人工智能工具，以便他们能够更快地创建和管理自己的商品列表。</p>
</div><p>Shopify stock is also expensive, priced at more than 90 times last year's likely earnings and more than 70 times this year's expected per-share profit of $1.54. This can limit the stock's near-term upside potential, not to mention fuel above-average volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 的股票也很昂贵，价格超过去年的预期收益的 90 倍，以及今年预期每股利润 1.54 美元的 70 倍以上。这可能限制了该股票短期内的上涨潜力，更不用说引发高于平均水平的波动性。</p>
</div><p>But this is also one of those cases where growth is so strong and so inevitable that the market supports a premium valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这也是一个增长如此强劲且不可避免的案例，以至于市场支持溢价估值。</p>
</div><p>In other words, as intimidating as the 350% run-up from 2022's low may be, there's still arguably more room for shares to continue this rally. Independently managed e-commerce platforms are where the online shopping industry is increasingly going. Shopify's breadth and depth of offerings mean it can monetize this demand no matter what its clients need.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，尽管从 2022 年的低点上涨了 350% 可能令人畏惧，但可以说，股票仍然有更多空间继续这一反弹。独立管理的电子商务平台正是在线购物行业日益发展的方向。Shopify 的广泛和深度的产品意味着无论客户需要什么，它都能从中获利。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Amazon? Why You Might Want to Buy This Unstoppable Growth Stock Instead

- 亚马逊在电商领域占据约 40% 的市场份额，推动了在线零售的发展。  
- Shopify 提供独立电商解决方案，帮助卖家与消费者建立个性化关系。  
- 预计美国电商市场将以每年约 9% 的速度增长，Shopify 有望持续受益。

你应该忘记亚马逊吗？为什么你可能会想购买这只势不可挡的成长股