<p>自从 <strong>波音</strong>（BA -1.79%）报告了其第四季度财报以来，已经过去大约一周，...到目前为止，一切还不错。</p>
<p>尽管波音的财报客观上令人失望，亏损超过华尔街预测的三倍，但波音股价因希望最坏的消息可能已经过去而有所回升。上周，波音股价继续波动上涨，最终在周四收盘时比财报发布前上涨了约 10 美元。</p>
<p>但投资者对波音的乐观是否正确？</p>
<h2>波音的第四季度财报</h2>
<p>在某种程度上，这取决于你如何看待这些数字。波音在第四季度报告的 GAAP 净亏损为每股 5.46 美元，全年亏损为 18.36 亿美元。该公司还继续消耗现金，第四季度的自由现金流为负 41 亿美元，2024 年的自由现金流为负 143 亿美元，甚至超过其报告的全年净亏损 118 亿美元。</p>
<p>波音将本季度（及全年）的亏损主要归因于 “之前宣布的 IAM 罢工和协议的影响”，以及 “与裁员相关的成本”，这些部分是由于 IAM 罢工造成的。</p>
<p>现在，好消息是，随着新劳动合同的签署，这场罢工已经成为波音的过去。但坏消息是，并非所有的亏损都源于劳资纠纷，这在很大程度上超出了波音的控制。一些亏损是波音自身的商业决策不当直接导致的。</p>
<p>以波音备受推崇的波音国防、太空与安全业务（BDS）为例。波音承认，“某些国防项目的费用” 对其在本季度和全年的亏损有所贡献。实际上，虽然罢工使波音的商用飞机部门在上个季度亏损 21 亿美元，但 BDS 的亏损甚至更多——达到了 23 亿美元。</p>
<p>BDS 因公司的 KC-46A 加油机项目和 T-7A 训练机项目而产生费用，这两个项目波音可能为了赢得五角大楼的合同而低报了报价——现在正以 “固定价格开发成本压力” 的形式付出代价，导致亏损。波音还在其 VC-25B“空军一号” 项目和 MQ-25 海龙无人机项目上产生了费用。此外，波音在其商业载人项目上也产生了费用，该项目指的是波音的星际飞船 Starliner，该飞船似乎总是无法顺利到达国际空间站。</p>
<p>事实上，目前波音唯一 “飞得不错” 的部分是公司的全球服务飞机维护业务。问题是，即便如此，该项目在第四季度的收入仅增长了 6%，2024 年的收入增长了 4%。(好消息是，波音在全球服务业务中成功扩大了利润率。该业务的营业利润率在全年平均为 18.1%，在第四季度达到了 19.5% 的优秀水平。)</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY4NTQvYm9laW5nLTczNy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY4NTQvYm9laW5nLTczNy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>对波音的一些好消息</h2>
<p>回到商用飞机部门，这似乎是投资者目前最关注的单位，波音确实有一些好消息要报告。随着 IAM 罢工的结束，波音正在 “执行一个系统的计划来重启我们的工厂”。</p>
<p>管理层在财报发布后的电话会议上确认，波音在库存中有足够的零部件，以维持每月 38 架 737 MAX 飞机的生产速度，高于 1 月份的 33 架。并且它看到了在此基础上加速生产的路径。首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格表示，波音的 787 飞机的供应链也 “稳定”，公司预计该生产率也将提高。</p>
<p>这听起来不错。不过，我认为投资者不应过于关注波音的商用业务，而忽视 BDS 的问题。</p>
<h2>如果你错过了...</h2>
<p>在官方财报中未强调，但在电话会议中披露，波音警告称，BDS 在第四季度所产生的大量费用的一个不良影响是，波音所产生的成本将在 “未来几年” 以现金流减少的形式显现。例如，自由现金流在 2025 年几乎肯定会为负。首席财务官布莱恩·韦斯特甚至警告称，这些费用可能会在 “未来十年” 内扩散。</p>
<p>因此，尽管波音坚称 “我们国防产品的需求仍然非常强劲”，但这并不一定意味着 BDS 的利润在未来会特别强劲——甚至可能是负的。</p>
<p>考虑到 BDS 目前占波音收入的每 3 美元中就有超过 1 美元，我不禁认为这对波音未来的业务以及波音股票来说都是坏消息。</p>

波音

<p>波音公司公布了令人失望的第四季度财报，每股净亏损为 5.46 美元，远高于华尔街的预期。该公司全年总亏损为 18.36 美元，季度自由现金流为负，达到 41 亿美元。尽管国际机械工人联合会的罢工已解决，但亏损也归因于糟糕的商业决策，特别是在其国防、航天与安全部门。尽管商用飞机部门有一些积极消息，但对国防部门未来的现金流和盈利能力仍然存在担忧，该部门占波音收入的很大一部分</p>

<p>It's been about a week now since <strong>Boeing</strong>(BA -1.79%) reported its Q4 earnings, and... so far, so good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从 <strong>波音</strong>（BA -1.79%）报告了其第四季度财报以来，已经过去大约一周，...到目前为止，一切还不错。</p>
</div><p>Although Boeing's earnings report was objectively disappointing, with losses more than three times the amount that Wall Street had forecast, Boeing shares perked up on hopes that the worst news may now be in the rearview mirror. Last week, Boeing shares continued to move higher in fits and starts, finally closing Thursday about $10 above their pre-earnings price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管波音的财报客观上令人失望，亏损超过华尔街预测的三倍，但波音股价因希望最坏的消息可能已经过去而有所回升。上周，波音股价继续波动上涨，最终在周四收盘时比财报发布前上涨了约 10 美元。</p>
</div><p>But are investors right to be so optimistic about Boeing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者对波音的乐观是否正确？</p>
</div><h2>Boeing's Q4 earnings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>波音的第四季度财报</h2>
</div><p>To an extent, it depends on how you look at the numbers. Boeing reported $5.46 per share in GAAP net losses in Q4, and losses of $18.36 for the year. The company also continued to burn cash, with negative free cash flow of $4.1 billion for the quarter and $14.3 billion for all of 2024, an amount even greater than its reported full-year net loss of $11.8 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某种程度上，这取决于你如何看待这些数字。波音在第四季度报告的 GAAP 净亏损为每股 5.46 美元，全年亏损为 18.36 亿美元。该公司还继续消耗现金，第四季度的自由现金流为负 41 亿美元，2024 年的自由现金流为负 143 亿美元，甚至超过其报告的全年净亏损 118 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Boeing blamed the bulk of the quarter's (and the year's) losses on &#34;previously announced impacts of the IAM work stoppage and agreement,&#34; as well as on &#34;costs associated with workforce reductions&#34; that were in part brought on by the IAM strike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波音将本季度（及全年）的亏损主要归因于 “之前宣布的 IAM 罢工和协议的影响”，以及 “与裁员相关的成本”，这些部分是由于 IAM 罢工造成的。</p>
</div><p>Now, the good news is that, with the signing of a new labor contract, this strike is now behind Boeing. But the bad news is that not all of Boeing's losses were due to labor unrest, which is largely outside of Boeing's control. Some were directly caused by poor business decisions on Boeing's part.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，好消息是，随着新劳动合同的签署，这场罢工已经成为波音的过去。但坏消息是，并非所有的亏损都源于劳资纠纷，这在很大程度上超出了波音的控制。一些亏损是波音自身的商业决策不当直接导致的。</p>
</div><p>Take the company's vaunted Boeing Defense, Space &amp; Security business, or BDS. Boeing admitted that &#34;charges for certain defense programs&#34; contributed to the losses it incurred in both the quarter and the year. And indeed, while the strike cost Boeing's Commercial Airplanes division $2.1 billion in losses last quarter, BDS suffered even more losses -- $2.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以波音备受推崇的波音国防、太空与安全业务（BDS）为例。波音承认，“某些国防项目的费用” 对其在本季度和全年的亏损有所贡献。实际上，虽然罢工使波音的商用飞机部门在上个季度亏损 21 亿美元，但 BDS 的亏损甚至更多——达到了 23 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>BDS took charges for the company's KC-46A refueling tanker program and for its T-7A training jet program, two programs where Boeing may have underbid to win work from the Pentagon -- and is now paying the price in the form of &#34;fixed price development cost pressures&#34; causing losses. Boeing also took charges on its VC-25B &#34;Air Force One&#34; program, and on its MQ-25 Stingray drones program as well. <em>And</em> Boeing took charges on its Commercial Crew program, which refers to Boeing's troubled Starliner space capsule that just can't seem to reach the International Space Station without glitching one way or another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BDS 因公司的 KC-46A 加油机项目和 T-7A 训练机项目而产生费用，这两个项目波音可能为了赢得五角大楼的合同而低报了报价——现在正以 “固定价格开发成本压力” 的形式付出代价，导致亏损。波音还在其 VC-25B“空军一号” 项目和 MQ-25 海龙无人机项目上产生了费用。此外，波音在其商业载人项目上也产生了费用，该项目指的是波音的星际飞船 Starliner，该飞船似乎总是无法顺利到达国际空间站。</p>
</div><p>In fact, about the only part of Boeing that is &#34;flying right&#34; these days is the company's Global Services aircraft maintenance business. Problem is, even that program only grew revenues 6% in Q4, and 4% for all of 2024. (On the plus side, Boeing did manage to expand margins nicely in the Global Services business. The operating profit margin there averaged 18.1% over the course of the year, and achieved a stellar 19.5% margin in Q4.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，目前波音唯一 “飞得不错” 的部分是公司的全球服务飞机维护业务。问题是，即便如此，该项目在第四季度的收入仅增长了 6%，2024 年的收入增长了 4%。(好消息是，波音在全球服务业务中成功扩大了利润率。该业务的营业利润率在全年平均为 18.1%，在第四季度达到了 19.5% 的优秀水平。)</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY4NTQvYm9laW5nLTczNy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806854%2Fboeing-737.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Some good news for Boeing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对波音的一些好消息</h2>
</div><p>Circling back to Commercial Airplanes, which seems to be the unit investors are most focused on right now, Boeing did have some good news to report. With the IAM strike out of the way, Boeing is &#34;executing a methodical plan to restart our factories.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到商用飞机部门，这似乎是投资者目前最关注的单位，波音确实有一些好消息要报告。随着 IAM 罢工的结束，波音正在 “执行一个系统的计划来重启我们的工厂”。</p>
</div><p>Management confirmed in its post-earnings conference call with analysts that it has sufficient parts in inventory to sustain production of its 737 MAX airliners at a rate of 38 planes per month, up from 33 planes in January. And it sees a path to accelerate production beyond that rate. CEO Kelly Ortberg says the supply chain for Boeing's 787 airliners, too, is &#34;stable&#34; and the company is anticipating a production rate increase there as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层在财报发布后的电话会议上确认，波音在库存中有足够的零部件，以维持每月 38 架 737 MAX 飞机的生产速度，高于 1 月份的 33 架。并且它看到了在此基础上加速生产的路径。首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格表示，波音的 787 飞机的供应链也 “稳定”，公司预计该生产率也将提高。</p>
</div><p>That's good to hear. At the same time, though, I don't think investors should over-fixate on Boeing's commercial business and ignore the problems at BDS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这听起来不错。不过，我认为投资者不应过于关注波音的商用业务，而忽视 BDS 的问题。</p>
</div><h2>In case you missed it...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果你错过了...</h2>
</div><p>Unemphasized in the official earnings report, but disclosed in the conference call, Boeing warned that one unwanted effect of the massive charges taken at BDS in Q4 is that the costs Boeing has incurred will show up in the form of decreased cash flow &#34;in the next few years.&#34; Free cash flow will almost certainly be negative in 2025, for example. And CFO Brian West even warned these charges could spread &#34;over the coming decade.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在官方财报中未强调，但在电话会议中披露，波音警告称，BDS 在第四季度所产生的大量费用的一个不良影响是，波音所产生的成本将在 “未来几年” 以现金流减少的形式显现。例如，自由现金流在 2025 年几乎肯定会为负。首席财务官布莱恩·韦斯特甚至警告称，这些费用可能会在 “未来十年” 内扩散。</p>
</div><p>So while Boeing insists that &#34;demand for our defense products remains very strong,&#34; this doesn't necessarily imply that BDS <em>profits</em> will be particularly strong -- or even positive -- going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管波音坚称 “我们国防产品的需求仍然非常强劲”，但这并不一定意味着 BDS 的利润在未来会特别强劲——甚至可能是负的。</p>
</div><p>When you consider that BDS currently makes up more than $1 out of every $3 in revenue Boeing collects, I can't help but think this is bad news for Boeing's business going forward, and for Boeing stock as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到 BDS 目前占波音收入的每 3 美元中就有超过 1 美元，我不禁认为这对波音未来的业务以及波音股票来说都是坏消息。</p>
</div>

以下是你可能错过的关于波音公司第四季度重大亏损的一些细节