<p>大宗采购、寻求折扣的消费者推动 <strong>开市客</strong>(COST -0.57%) 在 2024 年创下销售和盈利的历史新高。这家折扣零售商受益于坚韧的经济背景，同时利用持续扩展的电子商务。其最新更新强调了 2025 年开局的进一步增长势头。</p>
<p>在过去一年中，股价上涨了 47%，目前交易于历史最高点，这波上涨能否持续？让我们讨论一下如何处理开市客的股票。</p>
<h2>购买或持有开市客股票的理由</h2>
<p>开市客在全球拥有 1.39 亿持卡会员，其会员制商店概念依然极受欢迎。忠实的客户群体被各种商品的低价所吸引，从日常必需品到珠宝、电子产品和家具。独家优惠的获取，包括折扣汽油、旅行服务和店内药房，使得对许多人来说，年度会员费显得毫无疑问。</p>
<p>开市客吸引新会员并保持他们在其零售生态系统内的能力，突显了其运营模式的强大以及作为潜在投资的股票吸引力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY3NDcvY29zdGNvLXN0b2NrLWJ1bGxpc2gtb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY3NDcvY29zdGNvLXN0b2NrLWJ1bGxpc2gtb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>最近的趋势令人印象深刻。开市客最近报告了其 1 月份的业绩（截至 2 月 2 日），净销售额同比增长 9.2%，在排除汽油价格和外汇变动影响的情况下，公司总可比门店销售额在该月增长了 9.8%。</p>
<p>也许更大的故事是开市客在发展其电子商务业务方面的成功，相关部门的可比销售额比去年同月高出 13.6%。这一动态非常重要，因为它代表了新的增长动力，使开市客能够利用其广泛的物流基础设施，结合更为多样化的商品组合，在线接触更广泛的消费者市场。</p>
<p>根据华尔街的估计，开市客有望在今年和 2026 年实现 7% 的稳健收入增长。增长的动力包括去年宣布的美国和加拿大会员价格上涨，提升了收入和盈利率，因为计划以适度更高的费率续费。开市客计划在 2025 财年的剩余时间内开设 20 家新仓库，以促进新会员的增长。每股收益（EPS）的预测更为强劲，预计在未来两年内以约 10% 的年率增长。</p>
<p>相信开市客在国际扩展中能够继续保持稳定、盈利增长的投资者有充分理由购买该股票。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2025 年估计</th>
<th>2026 年估计</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$272.8</td>
<td>$291.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$18.18</td>
<td>$19.98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增长（同比）</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
<h2>卖出开市客股票的理由</h2>
<p>开市客有很多值得称道的地方，所有迹象表明其前景依然强劲，基本面稳固。另一方面，市场对公司零售主导地位的明显乐观直接转化为客观上昂贵的估值。开市客的股票交易价格为 2025 年每股收益预期的 58 倍，远高于 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，后者的前瞻市盈率接近 37。</p>
<p>市场似乎正基于其会员制模型和一致的执行历史，给予开市客一个盈利溢价。虽然这一指标本身并不意味着股票需要在短期内抛售，但担忧在于，这可能至少限制了股价在已经高企的预期下的上涨空间。所有这一切都发生在面临其他不确定性的环境中，开市客也受到更广泛宏观经济条件的影响。尽管细节尚未确认，但特朗普政府提议的贸易关税可能会导致一些供应链中断或通货膨胀成本压力，成为运营的逆风。</p>
<p>相信开市客在实现财务目标方面将面临挑战，并认为会员表现指标未来可能放缓的投资者，可能会考虑卖出或至少避免该股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png"/></p>
<p>COST 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>决策时刻</h2>
<p>我认为开市客的股票今天价格过高，不值得坚定购买。虽然股东可能有足够的强点继续持有，但在场外的投资者可能会在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的机会。尽管如此，这是一只值得关注的股票，以便在市场修正时可能提供以更低、更具吸引力的价格收购股票的机会。</p>

开市客

<p>开市客在 2024 年创下了销售和盈利的纪录，这得益于强劲的经济和电子商务的增长。在过去一年中，股价上涨了 47%，分析师们对买入、卖出或持有的选择展开了讨论。开市客的会员模式和最近的销售增长，包括 1 月份 9.2% 的增长，支持了乐观的前景。然而，其 2025 年每股收益预估的 58 倍高估值引发了对股价增长潜在限制的担忧。投资者被建议关注该股票以寻找未来的机会，特别是在可能面临的宏观经济挑战的背景下</p>

<p>Bulk-buying, bargain-hunting shoppers propelled <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST -0.57%) to a record-breaking 2024 for sales and earnings. The discount retailer is benefiting from a resilient economic backdrop while capitalizing on an ongoing e-commerce expansion. Its latest update highlighted further growth momentum to kick off 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大宗采购、寻求折扣的消费者推动 <strong>开市客</strong>(COST -0.57%) 在 2024 年创下销售和盈利的历史新高。这家折扣零售商受益于坚韧的经济背景，同时利用持续扩展的电子商务。其最新更新强调了 2025 年开局的进一步增长势头。</p>
</div><p>With the stock up 47% over the past year and currently trading at an all-time high, can the rally keep going? Let's discuss what to do with shares of Costco Wholesale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年中，股价上涨了 47%，目前交易于历史最高点，这波上涨能否持续？让我们讨论一下如何处理开市客的股票。</p>
</div><h2>The case to buy or hold Costco stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>购买或持有开市客股票的理由</h2>
</div><p>With 139 million cardholders worldwide, Costco's members-only store concept remains massively popular. Its loyal customer base is attracted to low prices on a variety of items, from everyday essentials to jewelry, electronics, and furniture. Access to exclusive deals, including discounted gasoline, travel services, and an in-store pharmacy, means that for many people, the annual membership fee is a no-brainer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客在全球拥有 1.39 亿持卡会员，其会员制商店概念依然极受欢迎。忠实的客户群体被各种商品的低价所吸引，从日常必需品到珠宝、电子产品和家具。独家优惠的获取，包括折扣汽油、旅行服务和店内药房，使得对许多人来说，年度会员费显得毫无疑问。</p>
</div><p>Costco's ability to pull in new members and keep them within its retail ecosystem highlights the power of its operating model and the attraction of the stock as a possible investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客吸引新会员并保持他们在其零售生态系统内的能力，突显了其运营模式的强大以及作为潜在投资的股票吸引力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY3NDcvY29zdGNvLXN0b2NrLWJ1bGxpc2gtb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806747%2Fcostco-stock-bullish-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The recent trends have been impressive. Costco recently reported its January results (for the period ended Feb. 2), with net sales up 9.2% year over year and total company comparable store sales increasing by 9.8% during the month, excluding the impact of changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的趋势令人印象深刻。开市客最近报告了其 1 月份的业绩（截至 2 月 2 日），净销售额同比增长 9.2%，在排除汽油价格和外汇变动影响的情况下，公司总可比门店销售额在该月增长了 9.8%。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the bigger story has been Costco's success at building out its e-commerce business, with segment comparable sales 13.6% higher than the same month last year. This dynamic is important as it represents a new growth driver, allowing Costco to leverage its extensive logistics infrastructure with a more diversified merchandise mix to reach a wider consumer market online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许更大的故事是开市客在发展其电子商务业务方面的成功，相关部门的可比销售额比去年同月高出 13.6%。这一动态非常重要，因为它代表了新的增长动力，使开市客能够利用其广泛的物流基础设施，结合更为多样化的商品组合，在线接触更广泛的消费者市场。</p>
</div><p>According to Wall Street estimates, Costco is on track to generate a solid 7% revenue increase this year and in 2026. The runway includes the hike to the U.S. and Canada membership pricing announced last year, lifting the top line and profitability margins as the plans renew at a modestly higher rate. Costco intends to open 20 new warehouses in the remainder of fiscal 2025 as a tailwind for new memberships. The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) is even stronger, climbing at around a 10% annual rate for the next two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据华尔街的估计，开市客有望在今年和 2026 年实现 7% 的稳健收入增长。增长的动力包括去年宣布的美国和加拿大会员价格上涨，提升了收入和盈利率，因为计划以适度更高的费率续费。开市客计划在 2025 财年的剩余时间内开设 20 家新仓库，以促进新会员的增长。每股收益（EPS）的预测更为强劲，预计在未来两年内以约 10% 的年率增长。</p>
</div><p>Investors convinced that Costco is well-positioned to continue its path of steady, profitable growth as it expands internationally have plenty of reasons to buy the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信开市客在国际扩展中能够继续保持稳定、盈利增长的投资者有充分理由购买该股票。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
<th>2026 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue (in billions)</td>
<td>$272.8</td>
<td>$291.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Earnings per share (EPS)</td>
<td>$18.18</td>
<td>$19.98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2025 年估计</th>
<th>2026 年估计</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$272.8</td>
<td>$291.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$18.18</td>
<td>$19.98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增长（同比）</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
</div><h2>The case to sell Costco stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>卖出开市客股票的理由</h2>
</div><p>There's a lot to like about Costco, with all indications that its outlook is as strong as ever, supported by solid fundamentals. On the other hand, the apparent optimism toward the company's retail dominance has translated directly into an objectively expensive valuation. Shares of Costco are trading at 58 times its consensus 2025 EPS estimate, a level well above peers like <strong>Walmart</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong>, each with a forward P/E ratio closer to 37.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客有很多值得称道的地方，所有迹象表明其前景依然强劲，基本面稳固。另一方面，市场对公司零售主导地位的明显乐观直接转化为客观上昂贵的估值。开市客的股票交易价格为 2025 年每股收益预期的 58 倍，远高于 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，后者的前瞻市盈率接近 37。</p>
</div><p>The market appears to be assigning Costco an earnings premium based precisely on its membership-based model and consistent execution history. While this metric alone doesn't mean the stock needs to sell off anytime soon, the concern is that it could at least limit the upside in the share price against already high expectations. All this is in an environment that faces other uncertainties with Costco being exposed to broader macroeconomic conditions. While details have not been confirmed, proposed trade tariffs by the Trump administration have the potential to generate some supply chain disruptions or inflationary cost pressures as an operating headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场似乎正基于其会员制模型和一致的执行历史，给予开市客一个盈利溢价。虽然这一指标本身并不意味着股票需要在短期内抛售，但担忧在于，这可能至少限制了股价在已经高企的预期下的上涨空间。所有这一切都发生在面临其他不确定性的环境中，开市客也受到更广泛宏观经济条件的影响。尽管细节尚未确认，但特朗普政府提议的贸易关税可能会导致一些供应链中断或通货膨胀成本压力，成为运营的逆风。</p>
</div><p>Investors who believe Costco will be challenged to achieve its financial targets and see room for membership performance metrics to slow going forward could consider selling or at least avoiding the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信开市客在实现财务目标方面将面临挑战，并认为会员表现指标未来可能放缓的投资者，可能会考虑卖出或至少避免该股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COST 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Decision time</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>决策时刻</h2>
</div><p>I believe shares of Costco are just too pricey to buy today with conviction. There are likely enough strong points for shareholders to continue holding, but investors sitting on the sidelines may find more compelling opportunities elsewhere in the stock market. Nevertheless, this is one stock to keep on your radar for the possibility of a market correction that might offer a chance to acquire shares at a lower and more attractive price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为开市客的股票今天价格过高，不值得坚定购买。虽然股东可能有足够的强点继续持有，但在场外的投资者可能会在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的机会。尽管如此，这是一只值得关注的股票，以便在市场修正时可能提供以更低、更具吸引力的价格收购股票的机会。</p>
</div>

开市客的股票在 2025 年是应该买入、卖出还是持有？