<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.74%) 的股价下滑，因为投资者对公司第一季度的收入预测感到失望。然而，该公司对人工智能（AI）的机会依然非常乐观，称其为一生中难得的机会，也是自互联网出现以来最大的技术变革。截至目前，亚马逊的股价在过去一年中仍上涨约 35%。</p>
<p>让我们深入分析公司的第四季度业绩和指引，看看这是否是一个在股价下跌时买入的好机会。</p>
<h2>大力投资人工智能</h2>
<p>亚马逊毫不掩饰其计划继续在人工智能领域进行大量投资。它表示，今年将花费约 1000 亿美元用于资本支出（capex），其中大部分将用于人工智能基础设施。同时，它表示，人工智能推理成本的下降将进一步推动更多的人工智能基础设施支出。</p>
<p>在本季度，其云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS）收入增长 19%，达到 288 亿美元，而该部门的营业收入则从 72 亿美元飙升至 106 亿美元。它表示，Bedrock 和 SageMaker 解决方案继续快速增长，组织利用基础模型构建生成式人工智能应用。它最近在 Bedrock 中添加了自己的基础模型 Nova，以及备受关注的 DeepSeek R1 模型。</p>
<p>亚马逊进一步宣传了其定制人工智能芯片的性能和优势。它表示，使用其定制芯片的 EC2 实例（虚拟服务器）在价格性能上比 GPU 驱动的实例高出 30% 至 40%。它表示，Anthropic 目前正在使用其 Trainium 2 芯片构建新的前沿模型，而 <strong>高通</strong> 和 <strong>Adobe</strong> 则一直在测试该芯片。它已经在计划年底前将 Trainium 3 芯片推向市场。</p>
<p>在消费业务方面，亚马逊的北美销售额跃升 10%，达到 1156 亿美元，而国际销售额增长 8%，达到 434 亿美元。北美部门的营业收入飙升 43%，达到 57 亿美元，而国际部门的营业收入为 13 亿美元，而去年则亏损 4.19 亿美元。</p>
<p>广告服务再次表现强劲，增长 18%，达到 173 亿美元。它表示，赞助广告表现良好，而 Prime Video 广告也显示出良好的早期势头。它强调了亚马逊营销云作为帮助广告客户分析数据以制作更好营销活动的方式。与此同时，订阅服务收入增长 10%，达到 115 亿美元。</p>
<p>第三方卖家服务收入增长 9%，达到 475 亿美元。在线商店收入增长 8%，达到 756 亿美元，而实体店（如全食超市和亚马逊生鲜）的销售额也增长 8%，达到 56 亿美元。</p>
<p>总体而言，亚马逊的收入增长 10%，达到 1878 亿美元，略高于 LSEG 汇编的 1873 亿美元分析师共识。调整后的每股收益（EPS）激增 86%，达到 1.86 美元，远超分析师预期的 1.49 美元。</p>
<p>亚马逊在这一年中产生了 1159 亿美元的经营现金流和 382 亿美元的自由现金流。因此，它产生的现金足以支持其积极的人工智能基础设施建设。</p>
<p>亚马逊预测第一季度收入将在 1510 亿美元至 1555 亿美元之间，增长 5% 至 9%。它表示，去年的闰年将产生 15 亿美元的负面影响，而外汇将带来 21 亿美元的阻力。这低于分析师预期的 1585 亿美元收入。该公司预计营业收入将在 140 亿美元至 180 亿美元之间，而去年为 153 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY5NjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgwOTY2MDE0OC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY5NjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgwOTY2MDE0OC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>投资者应该在下跌时买入吗？</h2>
<p>亚马逊从来不怕大手笔投资，而在构建其人工智能基础设施方面正是如此。同时，考虑到其开发和使用定制人工智能芯片，该公司应该具有成本优势。AWS 正在快速增长，但与云计算行业的许多部分一样，产能限制正在抑制增长。</p>
<p>与此同时，该公司的电子商务业务尽管规模庞大，但仍在良好增长。此外，该公司继续提高效率，并在业务中看到经营杠杆，而其高利润率的广告业务也在良好增长。这一切都导致亚马逊的收益增长速度远快于收入。</p>
<p>转向估值，亚马逊目前的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为 2025 年分析师预期的 30 倍。这低于其历史交易水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6984be0d5fd684672d416d9e36505f40.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6984be0d5fd684672d416d9e36505f40.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward 1y) 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>尽管其第一季度的指引偏软，但我不会在长期内对亚马逊下赌注，因为它面前有一个世代机会。该公司有着经历投资周期并在另一端变得更大更强的悠久历史。我预计在人工智能和云计算方面也会如此。</p>
<p>因此，我认为长期投资者可以在股价下跌时买入。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股价因第一季度收入预测令人失望而下跌，尽管过去一年增长了 35%。该公司计划在人工智能基础设施上投资 1000 亿美元，强调其 AWS 部门和定制 AI 芯片的增长。第四季度收入增长 10%，达到 1878 亿美元，超出分析师预期。调整后的每股收益激增 86%，达到 1.86 美元。第一季度收入预计在 1510 亿美元至 1555 亿美元之间，低于分析师预期。尽管指导意见疲软，分析师认为这一下跌可能是一个买入机会，因为亚马逊在人工智能和电子商务方面的长期增长潜力</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.74%) slipped as investors were disappointed with the company's first-quarter revenue forecast. However, the company remains very upbeat about its opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), calling it a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and the biggest technological shift since the advent of the internet. Amazon' stock is still up about 35% over the past year, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.74%) 的股价下滑，因为投资者对公司第一季度的收入预测感到失望。然而，该公司对人工智能（AI）的机会依然非常乐观，称其为一生中难得的机会，也是自互联网出现以来最大的技术变革。截至目前，亚马逊的股价在过去一年中仍上涨约 35%。</p>
</div><p>Let's dive into the company's fourth-quarter results and guidance to see if this is a good opportunity to buy the stock on the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们深入分析公司的第四季度业绩和指引，看看这是否是一个在股价下跌时买入的好机会。</p>
</div><h2>Betting big on AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大力投资人工智能</h2>
</div><p>Amazon made no qualms that it plans to continue to invest heavily in AI. It said it would spend around $100 billion in capital expenditures (capex) this year, most of which would go toward AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, it said AI inference costs coming down would just fuel more AI infrastructure spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊毫不掩饰其计划继续在人工智能领域进行大量投资。它表示，今年将花费约 1000 亿美元用于资本支出（capex），其中大部分将用于人工智能基础设施。同时，它表示，人工智能推理成本的下降将进一步推动更多的人工智能基础设施支出。</p>
</div><p>For the quarter, its cloud computing segment, Amazon Web Services (AWS), grew revenue 19% to $28.8 billion, while the segment's operating income soared 47% from $7.2 billion to $10.6 billion. It said its Bedrock and SageMaker solutions continue to grow rapidly, as organizations leverage foundational models to build generative AI apps. It recently added its own foundational model to Bedrock called Nova, as well as the much publicized DeepSeek R1 models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本季度，其云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS）收入增长 19%，达到 288 亿美元，而该部门的营业收入则从 72 亿美元飙升至 106 亿美元。它表示，Bedrock 和 SageMaker 解决方案继续快速增长，组织利用基础模型构建生成式人工智能应用。它最近在 Bedrock 中添加了自己的基础模型 Nova，以及备受关注的 DeepSeek R1 模型。</p>
</div><p>Amazon further touted the performance and advantages of its own custom AI chips. It said EC2 instances, which are virtual servers, with its custom chips are between 30% to 40% more price performant than GPU-powered instances. It said that Anthropic is currently building its new frontier models using its Trainium 2 chip, while <strong>Qualcomm</strong> and <strong>Adobe</strong> have been testing the chip. It is already looking to bring Trainium 3 chips to the market by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊进一步宣传了其定制人工智能芯片的性能和优势。它表示，使用其定制芯片的 EC2 实例（虚拟服务器）在价格性能上比 GPU 驱动的实例高出 30% 至 40%。它表示，Anthropic 目前正在使用其 Trainium 2 芯片构建新的前沿模型，而 <strong>高通</strong> 和 <strong>Adobe</strong> 则一直在测试该芯片。它已经在计划年底前将 Trainium 3 芯片推向市场。</p>
</div><p>On the consumer side of its business, Amazon's North American sales jumped 10% to $115.6 billion, while international sales increased 8% to $43.4 billion. Operating income for its North American segment soared 43% to $5.7 billion, while its international segment posted operating income of $1.3 billion versus a $419 million loss a year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在消费业务方面，亚马逊的北美销售额跃升 10%，达到 1156 亿美元，而国际销售额增长 8%，达到 434 亿美元。北美部门的营业收入飙升 43%，达到 57 亿美元，而国际部门的营业收入为 13 亿美元，而去年则亏损 4.19 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Advertising services was once again strong, growing 18% to $17.3 billion. It said sponsored ads were doing well, while Prime Video ads are showing good early momentum. It highlighted its Amazon Marketing Cloud as a way it helps advertisers analyze data to produce better marketing campaigns. Subscription service revenue, meanwhile, rose 10% to $11.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>广告服务再次表现强劲，增长 18%，达到 173 亿美元。它表示，赞助广告表现良好，而 Prime Video 广告也显示出良好的早期势头。它强调了亚马逊营销云作为帮助广告客户分析数据以制作更好营销活动的方式。与此同时，订阅服务收入增长 10%，达到 115 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Third-party seller services revenue increased by 9% to $47.5 billion. Online store revenue rose by 8% to $75.6 billion, while physical stores, such as Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh, saw sales rise by 8% to $5.6 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三方卖家服务收入增长 9%，达到 475 亿美元。在线商店收入增长 8%，达到 756 亿美元，而实体店（如全食超市和亚马逊生鲜）的销售额也增长 8%，达到 56 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Amazon's revenue rose by 10% to $187.8 billion, which came in just ahead of the $187.3 billion analyst consensus, as compiled by LSEG. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 86% to $1.86 and came in well ahead of analyst expectations of $1.49.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，亚马逊的收入增长 10%，达到 1878 亿美元，略高于 LSEG 汇编的 1873 亿美元分析师共识。调整后的每股收益（EPS）激增 86%，达到 1.86 美元，远超分析师预期的 1.49 美元。</p>
</div><p>Amazon produced $115.9 billion in operating cash flow on the year and $38.2 billion in free cash flow. As such, it is generating more than enough cash to fund its aggressive AI infrastructure buildout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在这一年中产生了 1159 亿美元的经营现金流和 382 亿美元的自由现金流。因此，它产生的现金足以支持其积极的人工智能基础设施建设。</p>
</div><p>Amazon forecast Q1 revenue to be between $151 billion and $155.5 billion, representing 5% to 9% growth. It said last year's leap year would have a negative $1.5 billion impact, while foreign currency would be a $2.1 billion headwind. That was below the $158.5 billion in revenue that analysts were expecting. The company anticipates that operating income will range from $14 billion to $18 billion, compared with $15.3 billion a year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊预测第一季度收入将在 1510 亿美元至 1555 亿美元之间，增长 5% 至 9%。它表示，去年的闰年将产生 15 亿美元的负面影响，而外汇将带来 21 亿美元的阻力。这低于分析师预期的 1585 亿美元收入。该公司预计营业收入将在 140 亿美元至 180 亿美元之间，而去年为 153 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY5NjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgwOTY2MDE0OC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806962%2Fgettyimages-1809660148.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Should investors buy the dip?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该在下跌时买入吗？</h2>
</div><p>Amazon has never been afraid to spend big, and it is doing just that when it comes to building out its AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, the company should have a cost advantage given its development and use of custom AI chips. AWS is growing quickly, but like with much of the cloud computing industry, capacity constraints are holding back growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊从来不怕大手笔投资，而在构建其人工智能基础设施方面正是如此。同时，考虑到其开发和使用定制人工智能芯片，该公司应该具有成本优势。AWS 正在快速增长，但与云计算行业的许多部分一样，产能限制正在抑制增长。</p>
</div><p>The company's e-commerce operations, meanwhile, continue to grow nicely despite its huge size. In addition, the company continues to improve efficiencies and see operating leverage in the business, while its higher-margin ad business continues to grow nicely. This is all leading Amazon's earnings to grow much faster than its revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，该公司的电子商务业务尽管规模庞大，但仍在良好增长。此外，该公司继续提高效率，并在业务中看到经营杠杆，而其高利润率的广告业务也在良好增长。这一切都导致亚马逊的收益增长速度远快于收入。</p>
</div><p>Turning to valuation, Amazon currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 30 times 2025 analyst estimates. That's below where it has traded historically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>转向估值，亚马逊目前的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为 2025 年分析师预期的 30 倍。这低于其历史交易水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6984be0d5fd684672d416d9e36505f40.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6984be0d5fd684672d416d9e36505f40.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward 1y) 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While its Q1 guidance was on the soft side, I wouldn't bet against Amazon over the long term when it sees a generational opportunity in front of it. The company has a long history of going through investment cycles and coming out the other end a bigger and stronger company. I would expect this when it comes to AI and cloud computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其第一季度的指引偏软，但我不会在长期内对亚马逊下赌注，因为它面前有一个世代机会。该公司有着经历投资周期并在另一端变得更大更强的悠久历史。我预计在人工智能和云计算方面也会如此。</p>
</div><p>As such, I think long-term investors can buy the dip in the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我认为长期投资者可以在股价下跌时买入。</p>
</div>

Amazon Shares Sink on Outlook. Is This a Buying Opportunity in the Stock?

- 亚马逊第一季度营收预测令投资者失望，股价下滑。  
- 该公司计划在人工智能基础设施上投资约 1000 亿美元。  
- 亚马逊第四季度营收增长 10% 至 1878 亿美元，超出分析师预期。  

亚马逊股价因前景下滑。这是买入该股票的机会吗？