<p>过去是否提供了关于未来的线索？有时是的。</p>
<p>这对任何考虑投资于 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.87%) 的人来说可能是个好消息。历史表明，现在可能是大量购买 Nvidia 股票的理想时机。</p>
<h2>低迷但未失去希望</h2>
<p>人工智能（AI），尤其是生成性 AI 的崛起，近年来为 Nvidia 提供了巨大的助力。自 2020 年初以来，该股票的回报率接近 21 倍，并且在过去 12 个月中上涨了超过 80%。</p>
<p>然而，Nvidia 的股价在过去几周内下跌。中国公司 DeepSeek 推出低成本 AI 模型引发投资者担忧，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求可能会减弱。DeepSeek 声称使用旧款 Nvidia 芯片开发了其 R1 推理模型，该模型与现有最佳 AI 模型相比表现良好。</p>
<p>但每当 Nvidia 股票在过去下跌 10% 或更多时，这通常是一个绝佳的买入机会。这种下跌的情况发生的频率比你想象的要高。自 2015 年以来，Nvidia 的股价至少每年从之前的高点下跌过一次双位数百分比，只有一次例外。每次股价下跌后，该股票都反弹并最终达到新高。</p>
<h2>盈利预期</h2>
<p>这种反弹效应并不是历史支持现在投资 Nvidia 的唯一方式。另一个值得考虑的模式是该股票在公司季度财报更新后的表现。</p>
<p>自 OpenAI 在 2022 年底推出 ChatGPT 以来，盈利预期因素的研究尤为重要。下图显示了 Nvidia 在 2023 年 2 月季度业绩公告后几周的股票表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>以下是 Nvidia 在下一个季度财报更新后的表现：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>这种趋势是否持续？在大多数情况下，是的。当然，也有一些例外。然而，Nvidia 在超越华尔街盈利预期方面有着良好的记录。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为 Nvidia 计划在 2025 年 2 月 26 日的几周内宣布其 2025 财年的第四季度业绩。重要的是，这将是公司首次报告其强大新款 Blackwell 芯片的收入。分析师预计 Nvidia 的第四季度盈利将同比增长 63%。但随着 Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋表示对 Blackwell 的需求 “疯狂”，华尔街的预估可能过于悲观。</p>
<h2>历史并不总是重演</h2>
<p>当然，历史并不总是重演。仅仅因为 Nvidia 的股价在过去的双位数百分比下跌后总是上涨，并不意味着这次也会如此。公司的超越盈利预期的记录可能不会持续。</p>
<p>重要的是，Nvidia 在近期并未面临 DeepSeek 现在所带来的威胁。Nvidia 的高估值（其股票交易在过去 12 个月销售额的 28.5 倍）反映了对巨大增长的预期。任何阻碍这种增长的因素几乎肯定会导致股价下跌。许多投资者担心 DeepSeek 的 AI 技术可能会对 Nvidia 的增长产生负面影响。</p>
<p>被称为 “估值之父” 的纽约大学金融教授 Aswath Damodaran 就是其中一位投资者。他最近写道：“DeepSeek 突然进入 AI 领域有可能改变 AI 叙事，随着这一变化，也可能改变过去两年受益于 AI 炒作的许多公司的故事。” 他将 Nvidia 列在了受益于 “AI 炒作” 的公司名单的首位。</p>
<p>然而，Nvidia 的几家主要客户在过去几周内提供了季度更新。他们都计划大幅增加资本投资，特别是为了提升训练和部署 AI 模型的能力。这对任何同意 “历史并不重演，但常常押韵” 这一说法的人来说都是个令人鼓舞的消息。</p>

英伟达

<p>本文讨论了投资英伟达股票的潜力，指出历史趋势表明现在可能是购买的理想时机。尽管由于 DeepSeek 的竞争，近期股价有所下跌，但过去的模式显示，英伟达的股票在类似下跌后通常会反弹。即将发布的财报预计将显示显著增长，但对竞争和高估值的担忧仍然存在。总体而言，尽管历史表明这是一个购买机会，但由于当前市场动态，建议保持谨慎</p>

<p>Does the past provide clues about what the future holds? Sometimes it does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去是否提供了关于未来的线索？有时是的。</p>
</div><p>This could be great news for anyone considering investing in <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.87%). History says now could be an ideal time to buy Nvidia stock hand over fist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对任何考虑投资于 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.87%) 的人来说可能是个好消息。历史表明，现在可能是大量购买 Nvidia 股票的理想时机。</p>
</div><h2>Down but not out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>低迷但未失去希望</h2>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence (AI), especially the rise of generative AI, has provided a massive tailwind for Nvidia in recent years. The stock has delivered a return of nearly 21x since early 2020 and is up more than 80% during the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI），尤其是生成性 AI 的崛起，近年来为 Nvidia 提供了巨大的助力。自 2020 年初以来，该股票的回报率接近 21 倍，并且在过去 12 个月中上涨了超过 80%。</p>
</div><p>However, Nvidia's share price has fallen over the last few weeks. Chinese company DeepSeek's launch of a low-cost AI model caused investors to worry that the surging demand for Nvidia's GPUs could wane. DeepSeek claimed to develop its R1 reasoning model, which stacks up well against the best AI models available, using older Nvidia chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nvidia 的股价在过去几周内下跌。中国公司 DeepSeek 推出低成本 AI 模型引发投资者担忧，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求可能会减弱。DeepSeek 声称使用旧款 Nvidia 芯片开发了其 R1 推理模型，该模型与现有最佳 AI 模型相比表现良好。</p>
</div><p>But anytime Nvidia stock has dropped 10% or more in the past, it presented a fantastic buying opportunity. Such declines have happened more often than you might think. Nvidia's share price has sunk by a double-digit percentage from its previous peak at least once every year since 2015 with one exception. The stock bounced back and eventually reached a new high each time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但每当 Nvidia 股票在过去下跌 10% 或更多时，这通常是一个绝佳的买入机会。这种下跌的情况发生的频率比你想象的要高。自 2015 年以来，Nvidia 的股价至少每年从之前的高点下跌过一次双位数百分比，只有一次例外。每次股价下跌后，该股票都反弹并最终达到新高。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings anticipation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利预期</h2>
</div><p>This rebound effect isn't the only way history supports the premise that now is an ideal time to invest in Nvidia. Another pattern to consider is how the stock has performed after the company's quarterly earnings updates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种反弹效应并不是历史支持现在投资 Nvidia 的唯一方式。另一个值得考虑的模式是该股票在公司季度财报更新后的表现。</p>
</div><p>It's most instructive to examine this earnings anticipation factor since OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT kicked off the generative AI boom in late 2022. The chart below shows Nvidia's stock performance in the weeks following the announcement of its quarterly results in February 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 OpenAI 在 2022 年底推出 ChatGPT 以来，盈利预期因素的研究尤为重要。下图显示了 Nvidia 在 2023 年 2 月季度业绩公告后几周的股票表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Here's how Nvidia stock performed after the next quarterly earnings update:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是 Nvidia 在下一个季度财报更新后的表现：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Did this trend continue? For the most part, yes. Sure, there were some exceptions. However, Nvidia has a great track record of beating Wall Street's earnings expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种趋势是否持续？在大多数情况下，是的。当然，也有一些例外。然而，Nvidia 在超越华尔街盈利预期方面有着良好的记录。</p>
</div><p>This matters because Nvidia is scheduled to announce its fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter results just a few weeks from now on Feb. 26, 2025. Importantly, this will be the company's first quarter to report revenue from its powerful new Blackwell chips. Analysts project that Nvidia's Q4 earnings will jump 63% year over year. But with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang indicating that the demand for Blackwell is &#34;insane,&#34; Wall Street's estimates could be too pessimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为 Nvidia 计划在 2025 年 2 月 26 日的几周内宣布其 2025 财年的第四季度业绩。重要的是，这将是公司首次报告其强大新款 Blackwell 芯片的收入。分析师预计 Nvidia 的第四季度盈利将同比增长 63%。但随着 Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋表示对 Blackwell 的需求 “疯狂”，华尔街的预估可能过于悲观。</p>
</div><h2>History doesn't always repeat itself</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史并不总是重演</h2>
</div><p>To be sure, history doesn't always repeat itself. Just because Nvidia's share price has always risen after double-digit percentage declines in the past doesn't mean it will do so this time. The company's track record of beating earnings estimates might not continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，历史并不总是重演。仅仅因为 Nvidia 的股价在过去的双位数百分比下跌后总是上涨，并不意味着这次也会如此。公司的超越盈利预期的记录可能不会持续。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Nvidia hasn't faced the threat in its recent past that DeepSeek presents now. Nvidia's sky-high valuation (its shares trade at 28.5 times trailing 12-month sales) reflects expectations of tremendous growth. Anything that derails that growth would almost certainly cause the stock to tumble. And many investors are concerned that DeepSeek's AI technology could negatively impact Nvidia's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，Nvidia 在近期并未面临 DeepSeek 现在所带来的威胁。Nvidia 的高估值（其股票交易在过去 12 个月销售额的 28.5 倍）反映了对巨大增长的预期。任何阻碍这种增长的因素几乎肯定会导致股价下跌。许多投资者担心 DeepSeek 的 AI 技术可能会对 Nvidia 的增长产生负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Aswath Damodaran, the NYU finance professor known as the &#34;Dean of Valuation,&#34; is one of those investors. He recently wrote, &#34;DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the AI narrative, and as it does, it may also change the storylines for the many companies that have spent the last two years benefiting from the AI hype.&#34; He put Nvidia at the top of the list of those companies that have been helped by &#34;the AI hype.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被称为 “估值之父” 的纽约大学金融教授 Aswath Damodaran 就是其中一位投资者。他最近写道：“DeepSeek 突然进入 AI 领域有可能改变 AI 叙事，随着这一变化，也可能改变过去两年受益于 AI 炒作的许多公司的故事。” 他将 Nvidia 列在了受益于 “AI 炒作” 的公司名单的首位。</p>
</div><p>However, several of Nvidia's largest customers provided quarterly updates over the last few weeks. All of them plan to significantly increase their capital investments and are specifically doing so to boost their capacity to train and deploy AI models. That's encouraging news for anyone who agrees with the adage that &#34;history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nvidia 的几家主要客户在过去几周内提供了季度更新。他们都计划大幅增加资本投资，特别是为了提升训练和部署 AI 模型的能力。这对任何同意 “历史并不重演，但常常押韵” 这一说法的人来说都是个令人鼓舞的消息。</p>
</div>

History Says Now Could Be an Ideal Time to Buy Nvidia Stock Hand Over Fist

- Nvidia 股票历史表现显示，当前可能是投资的理想时机。  
- 尽管股价近期下跌，但过去的下跌通常带来买入机会。  
- 分析师预计 Nvidia 第四季度收益将同比增长 63%。

历史表明，现在可能是大量买入英伟达股票的最佳时机