<p>乐观者在过去两年多的时间里有充分的理由微笑。自从 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 在 2022 年 10 月触底以来，华尔街的牛市一直牢牢掌控着局面。最近，这三个指数都达到了创纪录的收盘高点。</p>
<p>尽管催化因素众多，包括唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫、股票拆分的狂热以及超出预期的企业盈利，但推动华尔街前进的主要动力是人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktZmFjZS1jbG91ZC1jb25uZWN0aW9uLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktZmFjZS1jbG91ZC1jb25uZWN0aW9uLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>与人工智能相关的天花板高得惊人。赋予软件和系统推理、行动和随时间演变的能力，完全不需要人类干预，这对全球大多数行业来说都是潜在的长期游戏规则改变者。这就是为什么普华永道的分析师认为，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p>虽然在人工智能革命中有数十个直接和间接受益者，但没有哪家公司比 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）更能代表这一运动。</p>
<h2>英伟达理所当然地声称自己是人工智能的核心</h2>
<p>当 2022 年落幕时，英伟达是一家市值 3600 亿美元的科技股，以其用于 PC 游戏和加密货币挖矿的图形处理单元（GPU）而闻名。不到两年后，其市值增加了超过 3 万亿美元，并（短暂地）成为华尔街最大的上市公司。</p>
<p>英伟达的崛起与其 Hopper（H100）GPU 和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构密切相关，这些技术使得大型语言模型（LLM）的训练成为可能，并推动了生成式人工智能解决方案的发展。该公司的硬件订单积压，首席执行官黄仁勋在 10 月时形容对 Blackwell 的需求为 “疯狂”。</p>
<p>在计算速度方面拥有优越的产品，并且对该产品的需求超出供应，这是一个令人羡慕的地位。人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性使得英伟达能够对竞争对手的人工智能芯片收取 100% 到 300% 的溢价，这反过来又将其毛利率推向了天文数字。</p>
<p>英伟达在其人工智能硬件之外也取得了成功。该公司的 CUDA 软件平台被开发者用于构建 LLM 并最大化其 GPU 的计算潜力，帮助客户保持对其产品和服务生态系统的忠诚。</p>
<p>随着企业人工智能支出仍处于起步阶段，且没有其他芯片制造商能够接近 Hopper 或下一代 Blackwell GPU 的计算潜力，英伟达似乎在未来的竞争中处于理想位置。</p>
<p>但如果投资者密切关注英伟达内部人士的动向，他们可能会改变看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达的内部人士发出了重要信号——但有人在倾听吗？</h2>
<p>在华尔街投资的一个最佳方面是，它比以往任何时候都更加透明。只需点击一下按钮，投资者就可以即时访问运营结果、资产负债表、管理层评论和投资者演示文稿。</p>
<p>此外，投资者可以跟踪华尔街内部人士的买卖活动，这些内部人士是上市公司的高管和董事会成员。内部人士需要在交易日期后的两个工作日内向证券交易委员会提交 4 号表格。</p>
<p>在 2024 年 12 月 3 日，英伟达达到了一个可疑的里程碑。这标志着自四年前最后一位内部人士在公开市场购买该公司股票以来的确切四年。在这种情况下，是首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯的两个孩子受益于各自 100 股的购买，根据 4 号表格的备案。在随后的四年两个月中，共提交了 161 份 4 号表格，全部为内部销售，总额达 34 亿美元。</p>
<p>公平地说，并非所有内部人士的卖出活动都是恶意的。许多高管的薪酬大部分以归属股票和股票期权的形式发放。内部人士需要在期权合约到期之前执行，并可能选择出售公司股票以支付联邦和/或州税。</p>
<p>然而，在 50 个月的时间里，161 次出售与 0 次购买的比例是一个相当有说服力的故事。如果公司的管理团队和董事会都不认为他们的股票是个便宜货，投资者又为什么要这样认为呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS = 市盈率。</p>
<p>处于下一次重大创新前沿的公司处于泡沫之中并不是什么新鲜事。从上世纪 90 年代中期互联网的出现开始，每一次颠覆性的技术创新都经历了早期阶段的泡沫。由于大多数企业在其人工智能投资中缺乏明确的游戏计划，我们很可能再次见证历史的重演。</p>
<p>英伟达的估值也与之前的泡沫一致。在 25 年前互联网泡沫破裂之前，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>思科系统</strong> 的市盈率大约为其过去 12 个月（TTM）销售额的 40 倍。或许并非巧合，英伟达在去年夏天的市盈率达到了约 42 倍的 TTM 销售额。</p>
<p>即使英伟达在人工智能加速的数据中心拥有明确的竞争优势，内部人士的持续卖出和完全缺乏买入也表明英伟达的股票被高估了。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达经历了显著增长，凭借其 GPU 成为人工智能技术的领导者，市场价值已超过 3 万亿美元。然而，内部交易活动引发了担忧，因为在过去四年中没有任何内部购买，仅有总计 34 亿美元的销售。这种缺乏内部购买的情况可能表明高管们并不认为该股票被低估，这促使投资者重新考虑他们的持仓。公司的成功与其创新产品以及对人工智能解决方案日益增长的需求密切相关，但内部信心的缺失值得关注</p>

<p>Optimists have had every reason to smile over the last two-plus years. Since the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> bottomed out in October 2022, the bulls have been in firm control on Wall Street. Recently, all three indexes worked their way to record-closing highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乐观者在过去两年多的时间里有充分的理由微笑。自从 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 在 2022 年 10 月触底以来，华尔街的牛市一直牢牢掌控着局面。最近，这三个指数都达到了创纪录的收盘高点。</p>
</div><p>Though catalysts have been abundant and include Donald Trump's return to the White House, stock-split euphoria, and better-than-expected corporate earnings, the primary wind in Wall Street's sails has been the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管催化因素众多，包括唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫、股票拆分的狂热以及超出预期的企业盈利，但推动华尔街前进的主要动力是人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktZmFjZS1jbG91ZC1jb25uZWN0aW9uLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807098%2Fartificial-intelligence-ai-face-cloud-connection-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The ceiling associated with AI is astronomically high. Giving software and systems the ability to reason, act, and evolve over time, all without the need for human intervention, is a potential long-term game-changer for most industries around the globe. It's why the analysts at PwC believe artificial intelligence will add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与人工智能相关的天花板高得惊人。赋予软件和系统推理、行动和随时间演变的能力，完全不需要人类干预，这对全球大多数行业来说都是潜在的长期游戏规则改变者。这就是为什么普华永道的分析师认为，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While there have been dozens of direct and ancillary beneficiaries of the AI revolution, no company is the face of this movement more than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.58%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然在人工智能革命中有数十个直接和间接受益者，但没有哪家公司比 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）更能代表这一运动。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia rightly claims its spot as the AI kingpin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达理所当然地声称自己是人工智能的核心</h2>
</div><p>When the curtain closed on 2022, Nvidia was a $360 billion tech stock known best for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in PC gaming and cryptocurrency mining. Less than two years later, it had gained more than $3 trillion in market value and (briefly) became Wall Street's largest publicly traded company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 2022 年落幕时，英伟达是一家市值 3600 亿美元的科技股，以其用于 PC 游戏和加密货币挖矿的图形处理单元（GPU）而闻名。不到两年后，其市值增加了超过 3 万亿美元，并（短暂地）成为华尔街最大的上市公司。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's ascension has everything to do with its Hopper (H100) GPU and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture, which are enabling the training of large language models (LLMs) and powering generative AI solutions. Orders for the company's hardware are backlogged, with CEO Jensen Huang referring to demand for Blackwell as &#34;insane&#34; back in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的崛起与其 Hopper（H100）GPU 和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构密切相关，这些技术使得大型语言模型（LLM）的训练成为可能，并推动了生成式人工智能解决方案的发展。该公司的硬件订单积压，首席执行官黄仁勋在 10 月时形容对 Blackwell 的需求为 “疯狂”。</p>
</div><p>Having a superior product, in terms of computing speed, and having demand for that product overwhelm supply, is an envious position to be in. AI-GPU scarcity has allowed Nvidia to charge a 100% to 300% premium to competing AI chips, which in turn has pushed its gross margin into the stratosphere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在计算速度方面拥有优越的产品，并且对该产品的需求超出供应，这是一个令人羡慕的地位。人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性使得英伟达能够对竞争对手的人工智能芯片收取 100% 到 300% 的溢价，这反过来又将其毛利率推向了天文数字。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is having success beyond its AI hardware, as well. The company's CUDA software platform, which is used by developers to build LLMs and maximize the computing potential of their GPUs, is helping to keep clients loyal to its ecosystem of products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在其人工智能硬件之外也取得了成功。该公司的 CUDA 软件平台被开发者用于构建 LLM 并最大化其 GPU 的计算潜力，帮助客户保持对其产品和服务生态系统的忠诚。</p>
</div><p>With enterprise AI spending still in its infancy and no other chipmakers particularly close to matching the computing potential of the Hopper or next-gen Blackwell GPU, Nvidia would appear to be ideally positioned for the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着企业人工智能支出仍处于起步阶段，且没有其他芯片制造商能够接近 Hopper 或下一代 Blackwell GPU 的计算潜力，英伟达似乎在未来的竞争中处于理想位置。</p>
</div><p>But if investors pay close attention to what Nvidia's insiders are up to, they might change their tune.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果投资者密切关注英伟达内部人士的动向，他们可能会改变看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807098%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's insiders are speaking volumes -- but is anyone listening?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的内部人士发出了重要信号——但有人在倾听吗？</h2>
</div><p>One of the best aspects of putting your money to work on Wall Street is that it's more transparent than it's ever been. With a click of a button, investors have instant access to operating results, balance sheets, management commentary, and investor presentations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在华尔街投资的一个最佳方面是，它比以往任何时候都更加透明。只需点击一下按钮，投资者就可以即时访问运营结果、资产负债表、管理层评论和投资者演示文稿。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, investors can track the purchasing and selling activity of Wall Street insiders, which represent the high-ranking executives and board members of publicly traded companies. Insiders are required to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission within two businesses days following a transaction date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投资者可以跟踪华尔街内部人士的买卖活动，这些内部人士是上市公司的高管和董事会成员。内部人士需要在交易日期后的两个工作日内向证券交易委员会提交 4 号表格。</p>
</div><p>On Dec. 3, 2024, Nvidia hit a dubious milestone. This marked exactly four years since the last insider purchased shares of the company on the open market. In this case, it was Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress's two children who were the beneficiaries of respective 100-share purchases, per the Form 4 filing. In the four years and two months that have followed, 161 Form 4s have been filed, all of which were insider sales totaling an aggregate of $3.4 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 12 月 3 日，英伟达达到了一个可疑的里程碑。这标志着自四年前最后一位内部人士在公开市场购买该公司股票以来的确切四年。在这种情况下，是首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯的两个孩子受益于各自 100 股的购买，根据 4 号表格的备案。在随后的四年两个月中，共提交了 161 份 4 号表格，全部为内部销售，总额达 34 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, not all insider selling activity is necessarily nefarious. A lot of high-ranking executives receive the lion's share of their compensation in the form of vested shares and stock options. Insiders need to execute their options contracts before they expire and might choose to sell shares of their company to cover their federal and/or state tax liability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，并非所有内部人士的卖出活动都是恶意的。许多高管的薪酬大部分以归属股票和股票期权的形式发放。内部人士需要在期权合约到期之前执行，并可能选择出售公司股票以支付联邦和/或州税。</p>
</div><p>Then again, 161 dispositions to 0 acquisitions over a span of 50 months is a pretty telling story. If the company's own management team and board of directors don't view their stock as a bargain, why should investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 50 个月的时间里，161 次出售与 0 次购买的比例是一个相当有说服力的故事。如果公司的管理团队和董事会都不认为他们的股票是个便宜货，投资者又为什么要这样认为呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS = price to sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS = 市盈率。</p>
</div><p>Companies on the leading edge of a next-big-thing innovation being in a bubble is nothing new. Dating back to the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, every game-changing technological innovation has navigated its way through an early stage bubble. With most businesses lacking a clear game plan with their AI investments, there's a good chance we're witnessing history rhyme, once more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>处于下一次重大创新前沿的公司处于泡沫之中并不是什么新鲜事。从上世纪 90 年代中期互联网的出现开始，每一次颠覆性的技术创新都经历了早期阶段的泡沫。由于大多数企业在其人工智能投资中缺乏明确的游戏计划，我们很可能再次见证历史的重演。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's valuation is also consistent with previous bubbles. Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble a quarter of a century ago, <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Cisco Systems</strong> peaked at roughly 40 times their trailing-12-month (TTM) sales. Perhaps uncoincidentally, Nvidia topped out around 42 times TTM sales last summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的估值也与之前的泡沫一致。在 25 年前互联网泡沫破裂之前，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>思科系统</strong> 的市盈率大约为其过去 12 个月（TTM）销售额的 40 倍。或许并非巧合，英伟达在去年夏天的市盈率达到了约 42 倍的 TTM 销售额。</p>
</div><p>Even with Nvidia possessing well-defined competitive advantages in AI-accelerated data centers, the persistent selling by insiders and complete lack of buying points to Nvidia stock being richly valued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使英伟达在人工智能加速的数据中心拥有明确的竞争优势，内部人士的持续卖出和完全缺乏买入也表明英伟达的股票被高估了。</p>
</div>

Nvidia's Insiders Are Speaking Volumes With Their Trading Activity -- but Are You Listening?

- 自 2022 年 10 月以来，华尔街牛市持续，三大指数创下新高。  
- 人工智能的崛起被认为是推动市场的主要因素，Nvidia 成为 AI 领域的领军企业。  
- 然而，Nvidia 内部人士在过去四年中未购入股票，反映出对公司估值的担忧。  

英伟达的内部人士通过他们的交易活动传递了大量信息——但你有在关注吗？