<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.58%) 的股票在近期市场表现中一直名列前茅，甚至在去年的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 中录得 171% 的最大涨幅。这种势头的原因是什么？该公司在当今可能是增长最快、潜力最大的市场——人工智能（AI）领域建立了巨大的领导地位。</p>
<p>今天，价值 2000 亿美元的 AI 市场预计到本世纪末将超过 1 万亿美元，AI 有潜力改变许多行业和我们的日常生活。所有这些都可能为该领域的公司带来显著的收入增长。英伟达的收益已经受益，因为该公司销售开发和应用 AI 所需的产品和服务——从芯片到软件。</p>
<p>因此，这家科技巨头的收入在每个季度都实现了两位数和三位数的增长，达到了数十亿美元的历史新高。正如前面提到的，股价也随之上涨。</p>
<p>但最近，股价从高点回落，并且在过去四年中仅发生过两次类似的情况。回顾历史，我们可以看到接下来可能会发生什么。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMzNTAyNzI4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMzNTAyNzI4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>训练与推理</h2>
<p>首先，简要回顾一下英伟达的故事。该科技公司是全球顶级图形处理单元（GPU）的设计者，这些高性能芯片对于 AI 任务（如模型的训练和推理）至关重要。在英伟达的早期，它主要向视频游戏市场销售 GPU，但随着这些芯片在其他行业中的关键作用逐渐显现，英伟达开始向这些领域扩展。</p>
<p>此外，英伟达建立了一个完整的相关产品和服务生态系统，成为任何创建 AI 程序的客户的一站式商店。如今，英伟达为全球最大的科技公司提供服务——从 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 到 <strong>Microsoft</strong> ——并处于关键 AI 项目的中心。例如，当 OpenAI 和美国政府最近宣布一项 5000 亿美元的 AI 基础设施项目时，他们将英伟达指定为关键技术合作伙伴。</p>
<p>正如前面提到的，英伟达在 AI 领域的优势推动了股价的上涨，并提升了其估值，使得该股票在过去四年中曾交易至超过 75 倍的未来收益预期。随着分析师的收益预测上升，股票的估值有所回落，过去六个月内一般交易在约 48 倍的未来收益预期。</p>
<h2>英伟达的估值</h2>
<p>让我们考虑一下英伟达股票在最近几周的走势。该股票已经下跌，并跌破了 30 倍未来收益预期的估值。在过去四年中，它仅在另外两个时期跌破过该水平——一次是在大约一年前，另一次是在 2023 年春季。历史表明，当这种情况发生时，股票在接下来的几个月中往往会飙升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（未来）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>如果历史是一个准确的指南，模式表明英伟达股票在最近的下跌和估值下降后，应该很快会大幅上涨。当然，重要的是要记住，投资者不能总是依赖历史作为指导。股票和市场通常会给投资者带来惊喜。</p>
<p>这就是为什么在做出任何投资决策之前，考虑公司的收益记录和长期前景至关重要。考虑到这一点，对英伟达充满信心是有理由的。上面提到的公司在 AI 产品和服务方面的强大提供以及令人印象深刻的收入。这些收入也伴随着高销售利润率，毛利率始终超过 70%。</p>
<p>英伟达承诺每年更新其 GPU。它现在正在推出其 Blackwell 架构，这一创新将使竞争对手很难获得显著的市场份额。</p>
<p>历史表明，英伟达股票在最近的暂停和估值下降后，正处于反弹的良好时机——这确实可能发生。但真正让英伟达成为买入的原因在于公司的财务实力、市场地位和对创新的关注——这三者应该在长期内带来增长和股票表现。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票最近回落至 30 倍未来收益预期的估值以下，这是在过去四年中仅有两次跌破这一水平。历史上，此类下跌通常预示着显著的股票反弹。这家公司是人工智能技术的领导者，凭借其创新产品和强大的市场地位，收入和盈利能力大幅增长。分析师建议，英伟达的股票可能很快会再次上涨，受到其财务实力和人工智能持续进步的支持</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.58%) stock has been one of the market's best performers in recent times, even posting the biggest gain last year in the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> with a 171% increase. What's the reason for this momentum? The company has built tremendous leadership in what may be today's highest-growth and highest-potential market: artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.58%) 的股票在近期市场表现中一直名列前茅，甚至在去年的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 中录得 171% 的最大涨幅。这种势头的原因是什么？该公司在当今可能是增长最快、潜力最大的市场——人工智能（AI）领域建立了巨大的领导地位。</p>
</div><p>Today's $200 billion AI market is forecast to reach more than $1 trillion by the end of the decade, and AI holds the potential to transform many industries and our daily lives. All of this could generate significant revenue growth for companies in the space. Nvidia's earnings already are benefiting, since the company sells the products and services -- from chips to software -- needed to develop AI and apply it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，价值 2000 亿美元的 AI 市场预计到本世纪末将超过 1 万亿美元，AI 有潜力改变许多行业和我们的日常生活。所有这些都可能为该领域的公司带来显著的收入增长。英伟达的收益已经受益，因为该公司销售开发和应用 AI 所需的产品和服务——从芯片到软件。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the tech-giant's revenue has advanced in the double-digits and triple-digits, quarter after quarter, reaching records well into the billions of dollars. The stock price, as mentioned, has followed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，这家科技巨头的收入在每个季度都实现了两位数和三位数的增长，达到了数十亿美元的历史新高。正如前面提到的，股价也随之上涨。</p>
</div><p>But recently, the stock has retreated from its highs and has done something it's only done twice before in the past four years. A look at history shows us what's likely to happen next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最近，股价从高点回落，并且在过去四年中仅发生过两次类似的情况。回顾历史，我们可以看到接下来可能会发生什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMzNTAyNzI4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807266%2Fgettyimages-1335027284.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Training and inferencing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>训练与推理</h2>
</div><p>First, here's a quick summary of Nvidia's story so far. The tech player is the designer of the world's top-performing graphics processing units (GPUs), or high-powered chips critical for AI tasks like the training and inferencing of models. In Nvidia's earlier days, it sold GPUs mainly to the video gaming market, but as it became clear these chips could play a key role in other industries, Nvidia expanded into these areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，简要回顾一下英伟达的故事。该科技公司是全球顶级图形处理单元（GPU）的设计者，这些高性能芯片对于 AI 任务（如模型的训练和推理）至关重要。在英伟达的早期，它主要向视频游戏市场销售 GPU，但随着这些芯片在其他行业中的关键作用逐渐显现，英伟达开始向这些领域扩展。</p>
</div><p>On top of this, Nvidia built an entire ecosystem of related products and services to become the one-stop shop for any customer creating an AI program. Today, Nvidia serves the world's biggest technology companies -- from <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> to <strong>Microsoft</strong> -- and is at the center of key AI projects. For example, when OpenAI and the U.S. government recently announced a new $500 billion AI infrastructure project, they named Nvidia as a key technology partner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英伟达建立了一个完整的相关产品和服务生态系统，成为任何创建 AI 程序的客户的一站式商店。如今，英伟达为全球最大的科技公司提供服务——从 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 到 <strong>Microsoft</strong> ——并处于关键 AI 项目的中心。例如，当 OpenAI 和美国政府最近宣布一项 5000 亿美元的 AI 基础设施项目时，他们将英伟达指定为关键技术合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned, Nvidia's AI strengths have driven gains in the stock and lifted its valuation so that the stock has traded as high as more than 75x forward earnings estimates within the past four years. As analysts' earnings forecasts have climbed, the stock's valuation has come down somewhat, and it generally has traded for about 48x forward earnings estimates over the past six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如前面提到的，英伟达在 AI 领域的优势推动了股价的上涨，并提升了其估值，使得该股票在过去四年中曾交易至超过 75 倍的未来收益预期。随着分析师的收益预测上升，股票的估值有所回落，过去六个月内一般交易在约 48 倍的未来收益预期。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的估值</h2>
</div><p>Let's consider the move Nvidia stock has made in recent weeks. The stock has declined and fallen below the valuation of 30x forward earnings estimates. It's only dropped below that level during two other periods over the past four years -- once about a year ago, and the other time in the spring of 2023. History shows that when that happened in the past, the stock then went on to soar in the months to follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们考虑一下英伟达股票在最近几周的走势。该股票已经下跌，并跌破了 30 倍未来收益预期的估值。在过去四年中，它仅在另外两个时期跌破过该水平——一次是在大约一年前，另一次是在 2023 年春季。历史表明，当这种情况发生时，股票在接下来的几个月中往往会飙升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（未来）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>If history is an accurate guide, patterns suggest that Nvidia stock, after the recent dip and decline in valuation, should soon roar higher. Of course, it's important to keep in mind that investors can't always rely on history for guidance. Stocks and the market, in general, have been known to surprise investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果历史是一个准确的指南，模式表明英伟达股票在最近的下跌和估值下降后，应该很快会大幅上涨。当然，重要的是要记住，投资者不能总是依赖历史作为指导。股票和市场通常会给投资者带来惊喜。</p>
</div><p>This is why it's key to consider a company's earnings track record and long-term prospects before making any investment decision. With that in mind, there's reason to be confident about Nvidia. Above, I spoke of the company's solid offering of AI products and services and impressive revenue. This revenue also comes with high profitability on sales, with gross margin consistently surpassing 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么在做出任何投资决策之前，考虑公司的收益记录和长期前景至关重要。考虑到这一点，对英伟达充满信心是有理由的。上面提到的公司在 AI 产品和服务方面的强大提供以及令人印象深刻的收入。这些收入也伴随着高销售利润率，毛利率始终超过 70%。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has pledged to update its GPUs on an annual basis. It's now launching its Blackwell architecture, and this innovation will make it difficult for rivals to take significant market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达承诺每年更新其 GPU。它现在正在推出其 Blackwell 架构，这一创新将使竞争对手很难获得显著的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>History suggests that Nvidia stock, after its recent pause and drop in valuation, is ripe for a rally -- and that may indeed happen. But what really makes Nvidia a buy is the company's financial strength, market position, and focus on innovation -- three elements that should deliver growth and stock performance over the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史表明，英伟达股票在最近的暂停和估值下降后，正处于反弹的良好时机——这确实可能发生。但真正让英伟达成为买入的原因在于公司的财务实力、市场地位和对创新的关注——这三者应该在长期内带来增长和股票表现。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Is Doing Something It's Only Done Twice Before in the Past 4 Years. History Says This Will Happen Next.

- Nvidia 股票在市场表现优异，去年涨幅达 171%。  
- 公司在人工智能领域占据领导地位，预计市场将从 2000 亿美元增至 1 万亿美元。  
- 历史数据显示，Nvidia 股票在估值下滑后通常会迎来上涨。  

英伟达股票正在进行过去四年中仅有两次的操作。历史表明接下来会发生这样的情况