<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 2.18%) 一直是沃伦·巴菲特和 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> (BRK.A 0.50%)(BRK.B 0.52%) 最有利可图和最著名的投资之一。然而，他们最近一直在有条不紊地出售其股份。</p>
<p>伯克希尔对苹果的持股在 2023 年第三季度达到了顶峰，当时它持有超过 9 亿股苹果股票，价值超过 1500 亿美元。这占其投资组合的 50%，在一只股票中集中度相当高。截至 2024 年第三季度，伯克希尔持有 3 亿股苹果股票，价值接近 700 亿美元。</p>
<p>这比伯克希尔在第二季度持有的 4 亿股和第一季度持有的 7.89 亿股有所减少。这一模式非常明显，我认为可以安全地假设沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔在第四季度又出售了价值 250 亿美元的股票。</p>
<h2>苹果可能不再是伯克希尔最大的持股</h2>
<p>投资者可能会问的第一个问题是，我是如何获得关于巴菲特和伯克希尔交易的信息的？任何投资超过 1 亿美元的公司都必须在每个季度结束时向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）报告其持股情况。然后，这些持股将在季度结束后 45 天以名为 13F 的文件公开发布。</p>
<p>虽然这并不能完全准确地反映当前的持股情况，但它为投资者提供了公司未来走向的线索，尤其是对于像沃伦·巴菲特这样的长期投资者。下一轮 13F 文件的提交日期是 2 月 14 日，因此我们很快就能了解到巴菲特的动向。</p>
<p>苹果仍然是巴菲特最大的持股，占其投资组合的约 23%。第二大投资是 <strong>美国运通</strong> (NYSE: AXP)，占 16%。然而，如果我预测巴菲特又出售了 1 亿股苹果（价值约 250 亿美元）成真，那么苹果将成为巴菲特的第二大持股，除非他以戏剧性的方式出售或增加其他持股。</p>
<p>那么，巴菲特为什么要出售苹果呢？毕竟，他一直是这家公司的支持者。</p>
<h2>苹果的业务在过去三年中没有增长</h2>
<p>今天的苹果与巴菲特在 2016 年第一季度首次投资时的苹果并不相同。那时，苹果的股票非常便宜，但它是主导的消费电子品牌，智能手机市场（苹果最大的细分市场）仍然有大量的增长和创新。</p>
<p>2016 年第一季度，苹果的平均市盈率（P/E）为 10.6。现在这一数字已上升到显著更高的水平，市盈率为 37 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这意味着投资者现在愿意为苹果的股票支付近四倍于 2016 年的价格。这一事实是苹果股票成为成功投资的重要原因，因为其每股收益（EPS）在同一时期内并没有显著增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 每股收益（稀释后）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>苹果股票面临的最大问题是其每股收益的停滞。自 2022 年以来，苹果的收入和收益没有显著增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 每股收益（稀释后）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这一点在过去几年通货膨胀严重的背景下更为明显。根据美国劳工统计局的消费者物价指数（CPI）通货膨胀计算器，今天 1 美元的购买力相当于 2022 年 1 月的 1.12 美元。这意味着苹果的收益和收入在经过通货膨胀调整后实际上是下降的，这对投资来说不是一个好兆头。</p>
<p>然而，自 2022 年以来，苹果的股票上涨了超过 30%。如果你去掉苹果的名字，仅仅呈现这些信息，你会认为这只股票显著被高估。但由于股票上有 “苹果” 这个名字，这一切似乎是合理的。</p>
<p>虽然品牌名称是有价值的，但我认为投资者需要关注苹果的现状，因为它已经很长时间没有显示出有意义的增长。巴菲特和他的伯克希尔团队意识到了这一点，并通过提前出售来抢占先机。毕竟，出售巴菲特这样规模的持仓并不容易，而不会在市场上引起波动。</p>
<p>苹果不再是巴菲特及其团队所寻找的价值股。它也不是成长股，这使得苹果处于一个糟糕的境地：被高估。虽然我认为巴菲特和他的团队在第四季度将出售约 1 亿股（我们将在 2 月 14 日确认这一点），但如果更多也不奇怪。我认为巴菲特在这笔交易中处于正确的一方，任何持有苹果股票的人都应该跟随他的脚步。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

苹果

<p>据报道，沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦在 2023 年第四季度出售了价值 250 亿美元的苹果股票，将其持股从超过 9 亿股减少到 3 亿股。这一下降反映了一个更广泛的卖出趋势，因为苹果的增长已经停滞，其市盈率显著上升，而盈利却停滞不前。如果这一预测成真，苹果可能会降至巴菲特投资组合中的第二大持股。下一个 13F 文件将在 2 月 14 日公布，将确认这些交易，突显巴菲特逐渐远离苹果，因为苹果不再符合他的投资策略</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 2.18%) has been one of Warren Buffett and <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A 0.50%)(BRK.B 0.52%) most profitable and famous investments. However, they've been selling off their shares pretty methodically lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 2.18%) 一直是沃伦·巴菲特和 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> (BRK.A 0.50%)(BRK.B 0.52%) 最有利可图和最著名的投资之一。然而，他们最近一直在有条不紊地出售其股份。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's Apple holding peaked in third-quarter 2023, when it held over 900 million Apple shares, valued at over $150 billion. This made up 50% of its investment portfolio, a significant concentration in one stock. As of Q3 2024, Berkshire owned 300 million shares of Apple stock, valued at just shy of $70 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔对苹果的持股在 2023 年第三季度达到了顶峰，当时它持有超过 9 亿股苹果股票，价值超过 1500 亿美元。这占其投资组合的 50%，在一只股票中集中度相当高。截至 2024 年第三季度，伯克希尔持有 3 亿股苹果股票，价值接近 700 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This was a decrease from the 400 million shares Berkshire owned in the second quarter and the 789 million it owned in the first. This pattern is pretty clear, and I think it's safe to assume that Warren Buffett and Berkshire sold another $25 billion worth of stock in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这比伯克希尔在第二季度持有的 4 亿股和第一季度持有的 7.89 亿股有所减少。这一模式非常明显，我认为可以安全地假设沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔在第四季度又出售了价值 250 亿美元的股票。</p>
</div><h2>Apple may not be Berkshire's largest holding anymore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果可能不再是伯克希尔最大的持股</h2>
</div><p>One of the first questions an investor may have is, how am I getting this information about what Buffett and Berkshire are trading? Any company with over $100 million in investments is required to report its end-of-quarter holdings to the SEC each quarter. Then, those holdings are released to the public 45 days after the quarter closes in a document called a 13F.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能会问的第一个问题是，我是如何获得关于巴菲特和伯克希尔交易的信息的？任何投资超过 1 亿美元的公司都必须在每个季度结束时向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）报告其持股情况。然后，这些持股将在季度结束后 45 天以名为 13F 的文件公开发布。</p>
</div><p>While this doesn't give a perfectly accurate view into the current holdings, it gives investors an idea of where the company is heading, especially for long-term-minded investors like Warren Buffett. The next round of 13F filings is due on Feb. 14, so we'll get an idea of what Buffett has been doing shortly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这并不能完全准确地反映当前的持股情况，但它为投资者提供了公司未来走向的线索，尤其是对于像沃伦·巴菲特这样的长期投资者。下一轮 13F 文件的提交日期是 2 月 14 日，因此我们很快就能了解到巴菲特的动向。</p>
</div><p>Apple is still Buffett's largest holding, making up around 23% of his investment portfolio. The next biggest investment, <strong>American Express</strong>(NYSE: AXP), totals 16%. However, if my prediction that Buffett has sold another 100 million shares of Apple (worth around $25 billion) comes true, then Apple would become Buffett's second-largest holding, unless he sells off or adds to some of his other holdings in a dramatic fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果仍然是巴菲特最大的持股，占其投资组合的约 23%。第二大投资是 <strong>美国运通</strong> (NYSE: AXP)，占 16%。然而，如果我预测巴菲特又出售了 1 亿股苹果（价值约 250 亿美元）成真，那么苹果将成为巴菲特的第二大持股，除非他以戏剧性的方式出售或增加其他持股。</p>
</div><p>So why is Buffett selling off Apple? After all, he's been a proponent of the business for a long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，巴菲特为什么要出售苹果呢？毕竟，他一直是这家公司的支持者。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's business hasn't grown over the last three years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的业务在过去三年中没有增长</h2>
</div><p>Apple is not the business today that is was when Buffett first invested in it during Q1 2016. Back then, Apple was a dirt cheap stock, yet it was the dominant consumer electronics brand, and there was still a ton of growth and innovation happening in the smartphone market, Apple's largest segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的苹果与巴菲特在 2016 年第一季度首次投资时的苹果并不相同。那时，苹果的股票非常便宜，但它是主导的消费电子品牌，智能手机市场（苹果最大的细分市场）仍然有大量的增长和创新。</p>
</div><p>Apple's average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio during Q1 2016 was 10.6. It has now risen to a significantly higher level, trading for 37 times earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2016 年第一季度，苹果的平均市盈率（P/E）为 10.6。现在这一数字已上升到显著更高的水平，市盈率为 37 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That means investors are willing to pay nearly four times as much for Apple's stock now as they were in 2016. This fact is a big reason why Apple's stock has been such a successful investment, as its earnings per share (EPS) haven't risen nearly as much during that same timeframe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着投资者现在愿意为苹果的股票支付近四倍于 2016 年的价格。这一事实是苹果股票成为成功投资的重要原因，因为其每股收益（EPS）在同一时期内并没有显著增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Diluted (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 每股收益（稀释后）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The biggest issue with Apple's stock is the EPS plateau that Apple has been on. Since 2022, Apple's revenue and earnings haven't grown in any appreciable manner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果股票面临的最大问题是其每股收益的停滞。自 2022 年以来，苹果的收入和收益没有显著增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Diluted (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 每股收益（稀释后）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This is further exaggerated by the fact that inflation has raged during the past few years. Using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation calculator, the purchasing power of $1 in today's money is the equivalent of $1.12 in January 2022's money. That means Apple's earnings and revenue have actually <em>fallen</em> on an inflation-adjusted basis, which isn't a good sign for the investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一点在过去几年通货膨胀严重的背景下更为明显。根据美国劳工统计局的消费者物价指数（CPI）通货膨胀计算器，今天 1 美元的购买力相当于 2022 年 1 月的 1.12 美元。这意味着苹果的收益和收入在经过通货膨胀调整后实际上是下降的，这对投资来说不是一个好兆头。</p>
</div><p>However, since 2022, Apple's stock has risen more than 30%. If you removed Apple's name from the stock and presented just this information, you would assume the stock is significantly overvalued. But somehow, because the name &#34;Apple&#34; is on the stock, it's justifiable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自 2022 年以来，苹果的股票上涨了超过 30%。如果你去掉苹果的名字，仅仅呈现这些信息，你会认为这只股票显著被高估。但由于股票上有 “苹果” 这个名字，这一切似乎是合理的。</p>
</div><p>While the brand name is worth something, I think investors need to take a look at what's happening to Apple, as it hasn't been able to show meaningful growth in some time. Buffett and his crew at Berkshire realize this and are getting ahead of the curve by selling early. After all, it's not easy to sell off a position the size of Buffett's without making waves in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然品牌名称是有价值的，但我认为投资者需要关注苹果的现状，因为它已经很长时间没有显示出有意义的增长。巴菲特和他的伯克希尔团队意识到了这一点，并通过提前出售来抢占先机。毕竟，出售巴菲特这样规模的持仓并不容易，而不会在市场上引起波动。</p>
</div><p>Apple is no longer a value stock like Buffett and his team look for. It's also not a growth stock, leaving Apple in a bad position: Overvalued. While I think Buffett and his team will have sold off around 100 million shares in Q4 (which we will know about for sure on Feb. 14), I wouldn't be surprised if it's more. I think Buffett is on the right side of this trade, and anyone owning Apple shares should follow his lead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果不再是巴菲特及其团队所寻找的价值股。它也不是成长股，这使得苹果处于一个糟糕的境地：被高估。虽然我认为巴菲特和他的团队在第四季度将出售约 1 亿股（我们将在 2 月 14 日确认这一点），但如果更多也不奇怪。我认为巴菲特在这笔交易中处于正确的一方，任何持有苹果股票的人都应该跟随他的脚步。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Sold $25 Billion in Apple Stock in Q4

- 伯克希尔哈撒韦近期逐步减持苹果股票，持股从 900 百万降至 300 百万。  
- 苹果的市盈率显著上升，盈利未能同步增长，导致其被视为高估。  
- 投资者应关注苹果的增长停滞，可能跟随巴菲特的减持策略。

预测：沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦在第四季度出售了 250 亿美元的 Apple 股票