<p>大多数零售商并不被视为常青企业，因为它们高度暴露于宏观经济和竞争压力之下。它们还在跟上电子商务、移动和社交媒体市场的重大技术变革方面面临挑战。</p>
<p>尽管如此，一些韧性强的零售商在这些挑战中不断适应和发展。我个人认为，其中三家长期赢家可以被归类为 “常青” 股票，今天仍然值得购买：<strong>沃尔玛</strong>(WMT -0.44%)、<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.02%) 和 <strong>开市客</strong>(COST -0.34%)。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwNTgvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaG9wcGluZy1pbi1hLXN1cGVybWFya2V0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwNTgvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaG9wcGluZy1pbi1hLXN1cGVybWFya2V0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 沃尔玛</h2>
<p>沃尔玛在美国、墨西哥、中国及其他海外市场运营着超过 10,600 家商店和仓储俱乐部。它还在 19 个国家拥有其他地区性的实体店品牌和电子商务网站。</p>
<p>十年前，沃尔玛在与亚马逊及其他电子商务竞争者的竞争中苦苦挣扎。但它通过放缓实体店扩张、翻新现有商店、建立客户关系以及扩展电子商务和移动平台来保持相关性。它还与亚马逊的价格持平，并通过自己的商店完成更多在线订单。</p>
<p>从 2014 财年到 2024 财年（截至 2024 年 1 月），沃尔玛的收入以 3% 的稳定复合年增长率（CAGR）增长——即使在疫情、通货膨胀和其他宏观压力扰动全球经济的情况下。从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计其收入和每股收益（EPS）将分别以 5% 和 11% 的 CAGR 增长，因为它自动化更多订单，扩展数字能力，并将更多购物者锁定在其高端的沃尔玛 + 订阅服务中。</p>
<p>沃尔玛的股票在前瞻性市盈率为 37 倍时可能看起来并不便宜，但其规模、多样化和前瞻性战略支持了这一更高的估值。这使得它成为一个值得在未来几十年内购买和持有的常青股票。</p>
<h2>2. 亚马逊</h2>
<p>亚马逊并没有消灭沃尔玛，但在过去 15 年的 “零售末日” 中，它使许多其他大型零售商破产。现在，它是全球最大的电子商务公司，拥有超过 2 亿的 Prime 会员。它还拥有全食超市，提供数字流媒体服务，并通过各种 Alexa 驱动的硬件设备锁定用户。</p>
<p>这家电子商务巨头能够以微薄的利润运营其第一方和第三方市场，因为它实际上从其云基础设施平台——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）中获得了大部分利润。</p>
<p>AWS 已经是全球最大的云平台，随着越来越多的公司升级其云基础设施以分析更多数据并支持最新的人工智能应用，它正在变得更大。这个高利润的云业务通常会补贴亚马逊低利润零售业务的扩展，通过亏损引导策略使其在其他实体零售商面前占据重大优势。</p>
<p>从 2014 年到 2024 年，亚马逊的收入以 22% 的 CAGR 增长，尽管经历了多次经济衰退。从 2024 年到 2026 年，分析师预计其收入和 EPS 将分别以 10% 和 17% 的 CAGR 增长，随着宏观环境逐渐稳定。以 36 倍的前瞻性市盈率来看，它仍然并不显得过于昂贵，并且是一个在蓬勃发展的电子商务、云计算和人工智能市场中的稀有常青投资。</p>
<h2>3. 开市客</h2>
<p>开市客是另一家在与亚马逊和沃尔玛的竞争中保持立足之地的零售商。它通过其仓储俱乐部商店的粘性会员计划锁定购物者，相较于传统零售商提供有吸引力的批量购买折扣。它用其高利润的会员费来补贴低利润产品的销售。</p>
<p>只要开市客继续开设新店、吸引新会员并保持高续费率，其核心业务将保持健康。从 2014 财年（截至 2014 年 8 月）到 2024 财年，开市客从 663 家仓库扩展到 891 家仓库，会员人数从 76,000 人增长到 136,800 人，全球续费率从 87% 增长到 90.5%。在这 10 年中，其总收入以 8% 的 CAGR 增长。</p>
<p>从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计开市客的收入和 EPS 将分别以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增长，因为它继续扩展并锁定更多购物者。以 52 倍的明年收益来看，它并不便宜，但在未来几十年内，随着其常青飞轮持续向正确方向转动，它可能会变得更大。</p>

开市客

沃尔玛

<p>这篇文章讨论了三只被认为是 “常青” 的抗压零售股票：沃尔玛、亚马逊和开市客。沃尔玛适应了电子商务的挑战，从 2014 年到 2024 年实现了 3% 的收入年复合增长率，未来预计将继续增长。亚马逊作为领先的电子商务平台，拥有强大的云业务支持其零售运营，过去十年的收入年复合增长率为 22%。开市客依靠会员费和批量销售蓬勃发展，显示出 8% 的收入年复合增长率，预计将继续增长。尽管估值较高，这些公司被视为长期投资机会</p>

<p>Most retailers aren't considered evergreen businesses because they're highly exposed to macro and competitive headwinds. They've also struggled to keep pace with major technological shifts in the e-commerce, mobile, and social media markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数零售商并不被视为常青企业，因为它们高度暴露于宏观经济和竞争压力之下。它们还在跟上电子商务、移动和社交媒体市场的重大技术变革方面面临挑战。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, some resilient retailers have repeatedly rolled with the punches and evolved through those challenges. I personally believe three of those long-term winners can be classified as &#34;evergreen&#34; stocks that are still worth buying today: <strong>Walmart</strong>(WMT -0.44%), <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.02%), and <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST -0.34%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，一些韧性强的零售商在这些挑战中不断适应和发展。我个人认为，其中三家长期赢家可以被归类为 “常青” 股票，今天仍然值得购买：<strong>沃尔玛</strong>(WMT -0.44%)、<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.02%) 和 <strong>开市客</strong>(COST -0.34%)。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwNTgvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaG9wcGluZy1pbi1hLXN1cGVybWFya2V0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807058%2Ftwo-people-shopping-in-a-supermarket.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Walmart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 沃尔玛</h2>
</div><p>Walmart operates more than 10,600 stores and warehouse clubs across the U.S., Mexico, China, and other overseas markets. It also owns other regional brick-and-mortar banners and e-commerce websites across 19 countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛在美国、墨西哥、中国及其他海外市场运营着超过 10,600 家商店和仓储俱乐部。它还在 19 个国家拥有其他地区性的实体店品牌和电子商务网站。</p>
</div><p>A decade ago, Walmart was struggling to keep pace with Amazon and other e-commerce challengers. But it stayed relevant by slowing down its brick-and-mortar expansion, renovating its existing stores, building customer relationships, and expanding its e-commerce and mobile platforms. It also matched Amazon's prices and fulfilled more online orders through its own stores.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十年前，沃尔玛在与亚马逊及其他电子商务竞争者的竞争中苦苦挣扎。但它通过放缓实体店扩张、翻新现有商店、建立客户关系以及扩展电子商务和移动平台来保持相关性。它还与亚马逊的价格持平，并通过自己的商店完成更多在线订单。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2014 to 2024 (which ended in January 2024), Walmart increased its revenue at a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% -- even as the pandemic, inflation, and other macro headwinds rattled the global economy. From fiscal 2024 to 2027, analysts expect its revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to rise at CAGRs of 5% and 11%, respectively, as it automates more orders, expands its digital capabilities, and locks more shoppers into its premium Walmart+ subscriptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2014 财年到 2024 财年（截至 2024 年 1 月），沃尔玛的收入以 3% 的稳定复合年增长率（CAGR）增长——即使在疫情、通货膨胀和其他宏观压力扰动全球经济的情况下。从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计其收入和每股收益（EPS）将分别以 5% 和 11% 的 CAGR 增长，因为它自动化更多订单，扩展数字能力，并将更多购物者锁定在其高端的沃尔玛 + 订阅服务中。</p>
</div><p>Walmart's stock might not seem cheap at 37 times forward earnings, but its scale, diversification, and forward-thinking strategies support that higher valuation. That makes it an evergreen stock to buy and hold for the next few decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛的股票在前瞻性市盈率为 37 倍时可能看起来并不便宜，但其规模、多样化和前瞻性战略支持了这一更高的估值。这使得它成为一个值得在未来几十年内购买和持有的常青股票。</p>
</div><h2>2. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>Amazon didn't wipe out Walmart, but it drove many other big box retailers out of business during the &#34;retail apocalypse&#34; over the past 15 years. It's now the world's top e-commerce company with over 200 million Prime members. It also owns Whole Foods Market, offers digital streaming services, and locks in its users with a wide range of Alexa-powered hardware devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊并没有消灭沃尔玛，但在过去 15 年的 “零售末日” 中，它使许多其他大型零售商破产。现在，它是全球最大的电子商务公司，拥有超过 2 亿的 Prime 会员。它还拥有全食超市，提供数字流媒体服务，并通过各种 Alexa 驱动的硬件设备锁定用户。</p>
</div><p>The e-commerce giant can afford to operate its first- and third-party marketplaces at thin margins because it actually generates most of its profits from its cloud infrastructure platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家电子商务巨头能够以微薄的利润运营其第一方和第三方市场，因为它实际上从其云基础设施平台——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）中获得了大部分利润。</p>
</div><p>AWS is already the world's largest cloud platform, and it's growing even larger as more companies upgrade their cloud infrastructure to analyze more data and support the latest AI applications. That higher-margin cloud business usually subsidizes the expansion of Amazon's lower-margin retail businesses with loss-leading strategies to give it a major advantage against other brick-and-mortar retailers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 已经是全球最大的云平台，随着越来越多的公司升级其云基础设施以分析更多数据并支持最新的人工智能应用，它正在变得更大。这个高利润的云业务通常会补贴亚马逊低利润零售业务的扩展，通过亏损引导策略使其在其他实体零售商面前占据重大优势。</p>
</div><p>From 2014 to 2024, Amazon's revenue increased at a CAGR of 22% as it expanded through multiple economic downturns. From 2024 to 2026, analysts expect its revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 10% and 17%, respectively, as the macro environment gradually stabilizes. It still doesn't look too expensive at 36 times forward earnings, and it's a rare evergreen play on the booming e-commerce, cloud, and AI markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2014 年到 2024 年，亚马逊的收入以 22% 的 CAGR 增长，尽管经历了多次经济衰退。从 2024 年到 2026 年，分析师预计其收入和 EPS 将分别以 10% 和 17% 的 CAGR 增长，随着宏观环境逐渐稳定。以 36 倍的前瞻性市盈率来看，它仍然并不显得过于昂贵，并且是一个在蓬勃发展的电子商务、云计算和人工智能市场中的稀有常青投资。</p>
</div><h2>3. Costco</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 开市客</h2>
</div><p>Costco is another retailer that held its ground against Amazon and Walmart. It locks its shoppers into sticky membership plans for its warehouse club stores, which offer attractive discounts for bulk purchases compared to traditional retailers. It subsidizes its sales of lower-margin products with its higher-margin membership fees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客是另一家在与亚马逊和沃尔玛的竞争中保持立足之地的零售商。它通过其仓储俱乐部商店的粘性会员计划锁定购物者，相较于传统零售商提供有吸引力的批量购买折扣。它用其高利润的会员费来补贴低利润产品的销售。</p>
</div><p>As long as Costco opens new stores, gains new members, and maintains a high renewal rate, its core business will remain healthy. From fiscal 2014 (which ended in August 2014) to 2024, Costco expanded from 663 warehouses to 891 warehouses, it grew from 76,000 cardholders to 136,800 cardholders, and its global renewal rate grew from 87% to 90.5%. Its total revenue grew at a CAGR of 8% during those 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要开市客继续开设新店、吸引新会员并保持高续费率，其核心业务将保持健康。从 2014 财年（截至 2014 年 8 月）到 2024 财年，开市客从 663 家仓库扩展到 891 家仓库，会员人数从 76,000 人增长到 136,800 人，全球续费率从 87% 增长到 90.5%。在这 10 年中，其总收入以 8% 的 CAGR 增长。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Costco's revenue and EPS to rise at CAGRs of 7% and 10%, respectively, as it continues to expand and lock in more shoppers. It isn't cheap at 52 times next year's earnings, but it will likely grow even larger over the next few decades as its evergreen flywheel keeps spinning in the right direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计开市客的收入和 EPS 将分别以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增长，因为它继续扩展并锁定更多购物者。以 52 倍的明年收益来看，它并不便宜，但在未来几十年内，随着其常青飞轮持续向正确方向转动，它可能会变得更大。</p>
</div>

3 Evergreen Retail Stocks to Buy Like There's No Tomorrow

- 零售商面临宏观和竞争压力，但一些企业仍具韧性。  
- 沃尔玛、亚马逊和好市多被视为值得投资的 “常青” 股票。  
- 这三家公司在收入和会员增长方面展现出强劲的长期潜力。  

3 只值得立即买入的常青零售股票