<p>最近密切关注 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 的人肯定已经知道，该公司的第四季度云计算收入未能达到分析师的预期，这标志着其云业务连续第二个季度未能达标。这一失望的结果，加上对当前季度的前景指引不佳，导致上周五股价暴跌，仅在两天前股价创下历史新高。投资者似乎担心这家电子商务巨头的云业务不会再像几个月前那样被视为摇钱树。</p>
<p>问题是，公众可能是对的。<strong>亚马逊网络服务</strong>（AWS）不仅未能达到预期，而且正在失去云计算市场份额。未来可能不可避免地会出现压缩利润率的折扣。</p>
<h2>不可否认的逆风</h2>
<p>正如下图所示，亚马逊网络服务在全球云收入中的份额自 2019 年以来稳步下降，上个季度降至 30% 的历史低点。<strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.58%) 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 (GOOG -0.88%)(GOOGL -0.92%) 谷歌是造成这一损失的主要原因，尽管像 CoreWeave、<strong>甲骨文</strong>(ORCL -2.81%) 和 <strong>Cloudflare</strong>(NET 0.16%) 等一系列较小的公司也突然强劲崛起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：Synergy Research Group。图表由作者制作。</p>
<p>对于亚马逊来说，这并不是世界末日——至少还不是。根据 Synergy Research Group 的数据，云计算行业的总收入在 2024 年同比增长了 22%，并且在未来几年内肯定会以类似的速度继续增长。这对所有在该行业的公司都是一个有利的趋势，包括那些正在失去市场份额的公司。</p>
<p>值得补充的是，亚马逊网络服务似乎并没有面临任何迫在眉睫的运营问题。AWS 的营业利润率在经历了 2022 年通胀低迷后，仍保持在约 37% 左右。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWF3cy1wcm9maXQtbWFyZ2luLXJhdGUucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWF3cy1wcm9maXQtbWFyZ2luLXJhdGUucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：亚马逊 图表由作者制作。收入、利润和成本数据以十亿美元计。</p>
<p>不过，毫无疑问，随着云计算服务的商品化，获得或重新获得市场份额的最可行方法是提供更具竞争力（即 “更低”）的定价。或者提供一种成本更高的优质服务。无论哪种方式，未来不久我们可能会看到亚马逊的云利润率开始缩小。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为虽然 AWS 仅占亚马逊总收入的 17%，但却占其总营业收入的 58%。</p>
<h2>谨慎的理由</h2>
<p>当然，亚马逊有可能在不牺牲盈利能力的情况下重新赢得云市场份额。任何事情都有可能。</p>
<p>然而，考虑到一些令人瞩目的数据，这在目前并不是一个特别合理的希望。</p>
<p>简单来说，在经历了多年的价格上涨而没有伴随更多功能或附加功能后，云客户的挫败感显而易见。最近对 500 多名云计算专业人士的调查（由替代云服务提供商 Civo 进行）显示，37% 的受访者认为云计算未能兑现其在成本效益方面的初衷。同样的比例甚至 “考虑转向替代基础设施”，例如建立自己的数据中心或寻找更符合他们独特需求的选项，而不为他们不需要的选项付费。这包括取消与行业三大提供商之一——AWS、谷歌和微软的计划，并与一些较小的专业公司签约，这些公司在上面的图表中将被归类为 “其他”。</p>
<p>也许正是这些云计算巨头的其余部分描绘了 AWS 可能即将展开的价格战的更为严峻的前景。Civo 的调查补充说，超过 80% 的企业现在正在仔细考虑他们的云支出，但其中 40% 尚未采取任何实际的降本措施。一旦他们认真采取行动，预计亚马逊的云利润率将面临真正的压力。</p>
<h2>亚马逊投资者该怎么办？</h2>
<p>这还不是抛售亚马逊股票的理由。即使是一个疲软的亚马逊，仍然比许多其他股票更具前景。还值得一提的是，亚马逊的电子商务部门——尽管与 AWS 相比并不是巨大的利润中心——现在的盈利能力越来越高，达到了历史最高水平。亚马逊股票的高估值在很大程度上是基于其云计算业务的潜在利润。然而，既然这种潜力受到质疑，股价可能会在市场重新思考该股票的价值时面临挣扎。</p>
<p>换句话说，感兴趣的投资者可能希望在财报发布后的尘埃完全落定之前再进行投资。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的云计算收入连续第二个季度未能达到分析师的预期，导致股价下跌。AWS 正在失去市场份额，微软和谷歌等竞争对手正在扩大影响力。尽管云行业整体增长，但由于潜在的价格战和客户不满，AWS 可能面临利润压力。最近的一项调查显示，许多企业正在重新考虑其云支出。尽管亚马逊仍然是一个强劲的投资选择，但围绕 AWS 盈利能力的不确定性可能会影响其股票估值</p>

<p>Anyone keeping a close eye on <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) these days certainly already knows the company's fourth-quarter cloud computing revenue fell just short of analyst estimates, marking the second consecutive quarterly miss for its cloud arm. That disappointment paired with lackluster guidance for the quarter now underway sent shares tumbling on Friday last week, just two days after they reached a record high. Investors seem afraid that the e-commerce giant's cloud business isn't going to remain the cash cow it was believed to be just a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近密切关注 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 的人肯定已经知道，该公司的第四季度云计算收入未能达到分析师的预期，这标志着其云业务连续第二个季度未能达标。这一失望的结果，加上对当前季度的前景指引不佳，导致上周五股价暴跌，仅在两天前股价创下历史新高。投资者似乎担心这家电子商务巨头的云业务不会再像几个月前那样被视为摇钱树。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, the crowd may be right. Not only is Amazon Web Services (AWS) now coming up short of expectations, but it's losing cloud computing market share as well. Margin-crimping discounts may be inevitable in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题是，公众可能是对的。<strong>亚马逊网络服务</strong>（AWS）不仅未能达到预期，而且正在失去云计算市场份额。未来可能不可避免地会出现压缩利润率的折扣。</p>
</div><h2>There's no denying the headwind now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不可否认的逆风</h2>
</div><p>As the chart below shows, Amazon Web Services' share of worldwide cloud revenue has been steadily dwindling since 2019, reaching a record low of 30% last quarter. <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.58%) and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG -0.88%)(GOOGL -0.92%) Google are responsible for most of this attrition, although a collective of smaller names like CoreWeave, <strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL -2.81%), and <strong>Cloudflare</strong>(NET 0.16%) are suddenly coming on strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下图所示，亚马逊网络服务在全球云收入中的份额自 2019 年以来稳步下降，上个季度降至 30% 的历史低点。<strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.58%) 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 (GOOG -0.88%)(GOOGL -0.92%) 谷歌是造成这一损失的主要原因，尽管像 CoreWeave、<strong>甲骨文</strong>(ORCL -2.81%) 和 <strong>Cloudflare</strong>(NET 0.16%) 等一系列较小的公司也突然强劲崛起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807096%2F020925-cloud-computing-market-share.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Synergy Research Group. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Synergy Research Group。图表由作者制作。</p>
</div><p>It's not the end of the world for Amazon -- at least not yet. The cloud computing industry's total revenue grew 22% year over year in 2024, according to Synergy Research Group, and will certainly continue growing at a similar pace for at least the next several years. That's enough tailwind to benefit all the names in the business including any that are losing market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于亚马逊来说，这并不是世界末日——至少还不是。根据 Synergy Research Group 的数据，云计算行业的总收入在 2024 年同比增长了 22%，并且在未来几年内肯定会以类似的速度继续增长。这对所有在该行业的公司都是一个有利的趋势，包括那些正在失去市场份额的公司。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth adding that Amazon Web Services doesn't appear to be in any immediate operational trouble. AWS' operating profit margin rates remain around 37% after bouncing back from inflation-riddled 2022's lull.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得补充的是，亚马逊网络服务似乎并没有面临任何迫在眉睫的运营问题。AWS 的营业利润率在经历了 2022 年通胀低迷后，仍保持在约 37% 左右。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWF3cy1wcm9maXQtbWFyZ2luLXJhdGUucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807096%2F020925-aws-profit-margin-rate.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Amazon Chart by author. Revenue, income, and cost figures are in billions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：亚马逊 图表由作者制作。收入、利润和成本数据以十亿美元计。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake though. Now that cloud computing services have become commoditized, the most viable way to gain or <em>re</em> gain market share is with more competitive (read &#34;lower&#34;) pricing. That, or a superior service that costs more to offer. Either way, don't be surprised to start seeing Amazon's cloud profit margin rates start shrinking in the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，毫无疑问，随着云计算服务的商品化，获得或重新获得市场份额的最可行方法是提供更具竞争力（即 “更低”）的定价。或者提供一种成本更高的优质服务。无论哪种方式，未来不久我们可能会看到亚马逊的云利润率开始缩小。</p>
</div><p>It matters simply because while AWS only makes up 17% of Amazon's top line, it accounts for 58% of its total operating income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为虽然 AWS 仅占亚马逊总收入的 17%，但却占其总营业收入的 58%。</p>
</div><h2>Reason for caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>谨慎的理由</h2>
</div><p>Sure, it's possible Amazon could start winning cloud market share again without sacrificing profitability. Anything's possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，亚马逊有可能在不牺牲盈利能力的情况下重新赢得云市场份额。任何事情都有可能。</p>
</div><p>That's not a particularly reasonable hope at this time, however, in light of some eye-popping data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考虑到一些令人瞩目的数据，这在目前并不是一个特别合理的希望。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, after years of unchecked price increases not accompanied by more features or additional functionality, cloud customers are measurably frustrated. A recent survey of over 500 cloud computing professionals (performed by alternative cloud service provider Civo) indicates that 37% of this crowd feels the cloud hasn't lived up to its initial promise regarding cost-effectiveness. The same proportion is even &#34;considering a move to alternative infrastructures&#34; like building their own data centers or shopping around for options that better suit their unique needs without charging for options they don't need. This includes canceling plans with one of the industry's big three providers -- AWS, Google, and Microsoft -- and signing on with one of the smaller specialists that would qualify as an &#34;other&#34; on the chart above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，在经历了多年的价格上涨而没有伴随更多功能或附加功能后，云客户的挫败感显而易见。最近对 500 多名云计算专业人士的调查（由替代云服务提供商 Civo 进行）显示，37% 的受访者认为云计算未能兑现其在成本效益方面的初衷。同样的比例甚至 “考虑转向替代基础设施”，例如建立自己的数据中心或寻找更符合他们独特需求的选项，而不为他们不需要的选项付费。这包括取消与行业三大提供商之一——AWS、谷歌和微软的计划，并与一些较小的专业公司签约，这些公司在上面的图表中将被归类为 “其他”。</p>
</div><p>It's perhaps the remainder of these cloud computing captains that paints an even more alarming picture of the looming price war AWS could soon be waging. Civo's survey adds that over 80% of all enterprises are now thinking quite carefully about their cloud spending, yet 40% of them have yet to take any actual cost-reducing action. Once they do so in earnest, expect Amazon's cloud margins to come under some real pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许正是这些云计算巨头的其余部分描绘了 AWS 可能即将展开的价格战的更为严峻的前景。Civo 的调查补充说，超过 80% 的企业现在正在仔细考虑他们的云支出，但其中 40% 尚未采取任何实际的降本措施。一旦他们认真采取行动，预计亚马逊的云利润率将面临真正的压力。</p>
</div><h2>What do Amazon investors do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊投资者该怎么办？</h2>
</div><p>It's not yet a reason to shed your Amazon shares. Even a weakened Amazon is still a more promising prospect than plenty of other stocks. It also merits mentioning that Amazon's e-commerce arm -- while not enormous profit centers compared to AWS -- is increasingly more profitable now than it has ever been. Much of Amazon stock's rich valuation has been rooted in its cloud computing business's potential profits though. Now that this potential is in question, shares could struggle as the market rethinks what that ticker's worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这还不是抛售亚马逊股票的理由。即使是一个疲软的亚马逊，仍然比许多其他股票更具前景。还值得一提的是，亚马逊的电子商务部门——尽管与 AWS 相比并不是巨大的利润中心——现在的盈利能力越来越高，达到了历史最高水平。亚马逊股票的高估值在很大程度上是基于其云计算业务的潜在利润。然而，既然这种潜力受到质疑，股价可能会在市场重新思考该股票的价值时面临挣扎。</p>
</div><p>In other words, interested investors might want to let the post-earnings dust fully settle before diving in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，感兴趣的投资者可能希望在财报发布后的尘埃完全落定之前再进行投资。</p>
</div>

Amazon's Cloud Miss May Be Even Worse Than You Think (but It Makes Sense)

- 亚马逊第四季度云计算收入未达预期，股价下跌。  
- AWS 市场份额持续下降，面临价格竞争压力。  
- 投资者需谨慎，等待市场反应后再考虑投资。

亚马逊的云计算业务表现不佳可能比你想象的还要糟糕（但这有其合理性）