<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 刚刚公布了一个出色的季度业绩，但在结果公布后其股价下跌。尽管这个季度本身表现惊艳，但管理层的指引却令人失望；其收入指引的下限将是亚马逊历史上最低的季度同比增长。</p>
<p>这是对报告的一种悲观解读，似乎在市场上广泛存在。自报告发布以来，亚马逊的股价下跌了 3%。</p>
<p>投资者是否对此反应过度？我想指出，虽然这将是亚马逊历史上最慢的增长，但这并不是管理层第一次给出如此低的指引。两年前，它对 2023 年第一季度的收入指引为 4% 到 8% 的增长，最终以 9% 的增长超出了高端指引。</p>
<p>亚马逊通常会超出其指引，尽管没有保证。但投资者不应让一个可能性（甚至可能不会发生）遮蔽了亚马逊故事中其他一些优秀的点。亚马逊在两个巨大的增长行业中处于领先地位，更不用说其他几个较小的行业，首席执行官安迪·贾西刚刚给投资者带来了令人振奋的消息。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的惊人季度</h2>
<p>对于 2024 年第四季度，管理层的指引为：</p>
<ul>
<li>收入增长 7% 到 11%，即销售额为 1815 亿到 1885 亿美元</li>
<li>营业收入为 160 亿到 200 亿美元，高于去年的 132 亿美元</li>
</ul>
<p>亚马逊报告称：</p>
<ul>
<li>收入增长 10%，销售额为 1878 亿美元</li>
<li>营业收入为 212 亿美元</li>
</ul>
<p>净收入从 106 亿美元（每股 1 美元）增加到 200 亿美元（每股 1.86 美元）。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的销售额同比增长 19%，达到 288 亿美元，略低于华尔街的预期。</p>
<p>市场关注的是第一季度 5% 到 9% 的收入增长指引，即 1510 亿到 1555 亿美元。分析师的共识预期为 1585 亿美元。贾西将低指引归因于外汇逆风。亚马逊预计营业收入为 140 亿到 180 亿美元。这个目标范围比去年的 153 亿美元下降 8.5% 到增长 17%。</p>
<h2>不必过于担忧短期</h2>
<p>市场对指引感到失望是合理的，但在这样的时刻，投资者必须关注长期利益。股价并没有暴跌，可能会迅速恢复。</p>
<p>这让我想到了亚马逊的好消息。贾西表示，他对未来几年的情况进行了深入思考，生成性人工智能（AI）将在每个构建的应用中发挥巨大作用。事实上，他对亚马逊未来发展的解释中有太多积极的消息，很难将其浓缩成一句话或一个想法，但贾西开头就说：“我们对 AWS 客户和业务未来的乐观态度难以言表。”</p>
<p>他进一步解释道：“虽然对一些人来说，几乎每个应用都融入生成性 AI 的世界可能难以想象，但推理将成为与计算、存储和数据库一样的核心构建块，大多数公司将拥有自己的代理来完成各种任务并相互互动，这就是我们一直在思考的世界。我们继续相信，这个世界将主要建立在云上，其中大部分将在 AWS 上。”</p>
<p>市场对亚马逊未来一年的资本支出及其对亚马逊机会的影响充满期待。贾西表示，亚马逊在第四季度的资本支出为 263 亿美元，主要用于 AWS 的 AI。他表示，这对 2025 年的运行率是一个合理的预期，总额超过 1000 亿美元。</p>
<p>亚马逊在投资 AI 业务中有很大的收益，而如果不投资则会损失很多。它是全球最大的云计算公司，占据 31% 的市场份额，而 <strong>微软</strong> 的 Azure 以 20% 的市场份额位居第二。保持这一领先地位需要在快速变化的领域中进行创新。微软表示，今年将在 AI 开发上花费近 940 亿美元，亚马逊需要与之并肩前行。</p>
<p>AWS 继续领先，与 <strong>Intuit</strong>、<strong>PayPal</strong> 和 <strong>挪威邮轮公司</strong> 等知名企业在第四季度达成了合作协议，还有许多其他合作。贾西表示，亚马逊的 AI 能力在其云服务中引起了更大的关注，因为这是公司在开发中最大限度利用 AI 的地方。</p>
<p>亚马逊为各种规模的企业提供了大量解决方案和工具。它最近为其 Bedrock 客户增加了 DeepSeek 作为更便宜的选择，客户可以选择多种大型语言模型（LLMs）用于开发应用程序，并且它还最近推出了自己的更便宜的选项 Nova，声称其性能相当，但价格比流行模型便宜约 75%。</p>
<p>这一巨额投资将体现在亚马逊的收益中，并可能导致第一季度营业收入预期增长放缓。但亚马逊具有前瞻性，这一举措可能在未来带来巨大的好处。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊公布了强劲的季度业绩，收入增长了 10%，营业收入为 212 亿美元。然而，由于对下个季度的指引不尽如人意，预计仅有 5% 到 9% 的收入增长，股价下跌。首席执行官安迪·贾西强调了对未来的乐观，特别是在生成式人工智能和 AWS 方面，后者仍然是云计算的领导者。贾西强调了在人工智能方面的重大资本投资，表明亚马逊致力于在快速发展的科技领域保持竞争优势</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) just reported a blowout quarter, but its stock fell after the results came out. Although the quarter itself was spectacular, management's guidance was underwhelming; the lower end of its revenue guidance would be Amazon's lowest quarterly year-over-year growth ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 刚刚公布了一个出色的季度业绩，但在结果公布后其股价下跌。尽管这个季度本身表现惊艳，但管理层的指引却令人失望；其收入指引的下限将是亚马逊历史上最低的季度同比增长。</p>
</div><p>That's one pessimistic take on the report, and one that seems to be shared across the market. Amazon stock is down 3% since the report came out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是对报告的一种悲观解读，似乎在市场上广泛存在。自报告发布以来，亚马逊的股价下跌了 3%。</p>
</div><p>Are investors taking this a little too far? I would note that while it would be the slowest growth in Amazon's history, this isn't the first time management has guided so low. It guided for a 4% to 8% increase in revenue for the 2023 first quarter, exactly two years ago, and it came in ahead of even the high guidance with a 9% increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者是否对此反应过度？我想指出，虽然这将是亚马逊历史上最慢的增长，但这并不是管理层第一次给出如此低的指引。两年前，它对 2023 年第一季度的收入指引为 4% 到 8% 的增长，最终以 9% 的增长超出了高端指引。</p>
</div><p>Amazon tends to beat its guidance, although there's no guarantee. But investors shouldn't let a potentiality, which may not even happen, overshadow some of the other excellent points in Amazon's story. Amazon is a leader in two huge growth industries, not to mention several other smaller ones, and CEO Andy Jassy just gave investors some amazing news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊通常会超出其指引，尽管没有保证。但投资者不应让一个可能性（甚至可能不会发生）遮蔽了亚马逊故事中其他一些优秀的点。亚马逊在两个巨大的增长行业中处于领先地位，更不用说其他几个较小的行业，首席执行官安迪·贾西刚刚给投资者带来了令人振奋的消息。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's amazing quarter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的惊人季度</h2>
</div><p>For the 2024 fourth quarter, management was guiding for:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2024 年第四季度，管理层的指引为：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Revenue growth of 7% to 11%, or sales to be $181.5 billion to $188.5 billion</li>
<li>Operating income of $16 billion to $20 billion, up from $13.2 billion last year</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>收入增长 7% 到 11%，即销售额为 1815 亿到 1885 亿美元</li>
<li>营业收入为 160 亿到 200 亿美元，高于去年的 132 亿美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Amazon reported:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊报告称：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Revenue growth of 10%, sales of $187.8 billion</li>
<li>Operating income of $21.2 billion</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>收入增长 10%，销售额为 1878 亿美元</li>
<li>营业收入为 212 亿美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Net income increased from $10.6 billion, or $1 per share, to $20 billion, or $1.86 per share. Sales from Amazon Web Services (AWS), the cloud computing business, increased 19% year over year to $28.8 billion, slightly below Wall Street's expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净收入从 106 亿美元（每股 1 美元）增加到 200 亿美元（每股 1.86 美元）。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的销售额同比增长 19%，达到 288 亿美元，略低于华尔街的预期。</p>
</div><p>The market was focused on the first-quarter guidance of 5% to 9% growth in revenue, or $151 billion to $155.5 billion. The analyst consensus expectation was $158.5 billion. Jassy attributed the lower guidance to foreign exchange headwinds. Amazon is guiding for operating income of $14 billion to $18 billion. This target range spans from an 8.5% decline to a 17% increase from $15.3 billion last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场关注的是第一季度 5% 到 9% 的收入增长指引，即 1510 亿到 1555 亿美元。分析师的共识预期为 1585 亿美元。贾西将低指引归因于外汇逆风。亚马逊预计营业收入为 140 亿到 180 亿美元。这个目标范围比去年的 153 亿美元下降 8.5% 到增长 17%。</p>
</div><h2>Don't sweat the short term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不必过于担忧短期</h2>
</div><p>It's reasonable for the market to be disappointed by the guidance, but it's so important at times like this for investors to play the long game. The stock didn't plunge, and it could recover quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对指引感到失望是合理的，但在这样的时刻，投资者必须关注长期利益。股价并没有暴跌，可能会迅速恢复。</p>
</div><p>That brings me to Amazon's fantastic news. Jassy said he's put a lot of thought into how things will look a few years from now, and generative artificial intelligence (AI) is going to play a huge role in every application that's built. The truth is that there was so much positive news in his explanation of where Amazon is going with this that it's hard to distill it into one quote or idea, but Jassy started off by saying, &#34;It's hard to overstate how optimistic we are about what lies ahead for AWS' customers and business.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我想到了亚马逊的好消息。贾西表示，他对未来几年的情况进行了深入思考，生成性人工智能（AI）将在每个构建的应用中发挥巨大作用。事实上，他对亚马逊未来发展的解释中有太多积极的消息，很难将其浓缩成一句话或一个想法，但贾西开头就说：“我们对 AWS 客户和业务未来的乐观态度难以言表。”</p>
</div><p>He explained further: &#34;While it may be hard for some to fathom a world where virtually every app has generative AI infused in it, with inference being a core building block just like compute, storage, and database, and most companies having their own agents that accomplish various tasks and interact with one another, this is the world we're thinking about all the time. And we continue to believe that this world will mostly be built on top of the cloud with the largest portion of it on AWS.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他进一步解释道：“虽然对一些人来说，几乎每个应用都融入生成性 AI 的世界可能难以想象，但推理将成为与计算、存储和数据库一样的核心构建块，大多数公司将拥有自己的代理来完成各种任务并相互互动，这就是我们一直在思考的世界。我们继续相信，这个世界将主要建立在云上，其中大部分将在 AWS 上。”</p>
</div><p>The market was buzzing about Amazon's capital spending over the next year and what it means for Amazon's opportunities. Jassy said that Amazon spent $26.3 billion in capital expenditures in the fourth quarter, mostly on AI for AWS. He said that's a reasonable expectation for a 2025 run rate, totaling more than $100 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对亚马逊未来一年的资本支出及其对亚马逊机会的影响充满期待。贾西表示，亚马逊在第四季度的资本支出为 263 亿美元，主要用于 AWS 的 AI。他表示，这对 2025 年的运行率是一个合理的预期，总额超过 1000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has everything to gain from investing in the AI business and a lot to lose if it doesn't. It's the top cloud computing company in the world, with 31% of the market, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s Azure is a distant second with 20%. Keeping that lead requires innovation in a fast-changing field. Microsoft has said it would spend nearly $94 billion in developing AI this year, and Amazon needs to be right up there along with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在投资 AI 业务中有很大的收益，而如果不投资则会损失很多。它是全球最大的云计算公司，占据 31% 的市场份额，而 <strong>微软</strong> 的 Azure 以 20% 的市场份额位居第二。保持这一领先地位需要在快速变化的领域中进行创新。微软表示，今年将在 AI 开发上花费近 940 亿美元，亚马逊需要与之并肩前行。</p>
</div><p>AWS continues to lead, cementing deals with high-profile names like <strong>Intuit</strong>, <strong>PayPal</strong>, and <strong>Norwegian Cruise Line</strong> in the fourth quarter, among many more. Jassy has said that Amazon's AI capabilities are drawing greater interest in its cloud services, since that's where companies can get the most out of using AI in development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 继续领先，与 <strong>Intuit</strong>、<strong>PayPal</strong> 和 <strong>挪威邮轮公司</strong> 等知名企业在第四季度达成了合作协议，还有许多其他合作。贾西表示，亚马逊的 AI 能力在其云服务中引起了更大的关注，因为这是公司在开发中最大限度利用 AI 的地方。</p>
</div><p>Amazon offers a massive assortment of solutions and tools for all kinds of businesses and all sizes. It recently added DeepSeek as a cheaper option for its Bedrock customers, who have a choice of large language models (LLMs) to use in developing applications, and it also recently unveiled its own cheaper option called Nova, which it says matches performance but is around 75% cheaper than popular models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊为各种规模的企业提供了大量解决方案和工具。它最近为其 Bedrock 客户增加了 DeepSeek 作为更便宜的选择，客户可以选择多种大型语言模型（LLMs）用于开发应用程序，并且它还最近推出了自己的更便宜的选项 Nova，声称其性能相当，但价格比流行模型便宜约 75%。</p>
</div><p>This huge investment is going to show up in Amazon's earnings and likely is contributing to the lower expected growth in operating income in the first quarter. But Amazon is forward thinking, and this move could lead to huge benefits down the line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一巨额投资将体现在亚马逊的收益中，并可能导致第一季度营业收入预期增长放缓。但亚马逊具有前瞻性，这一举措可能在未来带来巨大的好处。</p>
</div>

Andy Jassy Just Delivered Fantastic News for Amazon Investors

- 亚马逊报告了强劲的季度业绩，但股价下跌 3%。  
- 管理层对未来收入的指引低于预期，预计增长为 5% 至 9%。  
- 亚马逊在云计算和人工智能领域的投资将推动长期增长。  

安迪·贾西刚刚为亚马逊投资者传递了极好的消息