<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 上周以其不尽如人意的第一季度指引让投资者感到意外。股价下跌，但由于聪明的投资者看到了略显失望的季度指引背后的潜力，股价已经开始反弹。毕竟，这个季度有很多值得称道的地方，更有值得称道的是亚马逊如何利用其在云计算领域的主导地位来推动其人工智能（AI）业务。</p>
<p>在关于人工智能和指引的讨论中，亚马逊达成了一个重要的里程碑，但这一点被掩盖了。不过，这对亚马逊的未来是个好兆头。</p>
<h2>一切归结于利润</h2>
<p>根据大多数人的说法，亚马逊在第四季度表现出色。收入同比增长 10%，达到了指引的高端，指引范围为 7% 到 11%。首席执行官安迪·杰西表示，如果没有外汇影响，收入将达到 11%，而强势美元对亚马逊产生了负面影响。</p>
<p>收入增长稳健，但营业收入增长则令人瞩目。营业收入同比增长 61%，达到 212 亿美元，超出预期的 160 亿到 200 亿美元，较去年的 132 亿美元大幅上升。和往常一样，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）贡献了营业收入的很大一部分——正好占一半。然而，这一比例比之前的季度要低得多。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>Q1 24</th>
<th>Q2 24</th>
<th>Q3 24</th>
<th>Q4 24</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AWS 营业收入占比</td>
<td>61%</td>
<td>63%</td>
<td>60%</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：亚马逊季度报告。</p>
<p>AWS 的营业收入在第四季度同比增长 47%，低于整体水平。亚马逊正在加大对 AWS 生成性 AI 项目的投资，这可能会拉低 AWS 的利润。2024 年，亚马逊在资本支出（capex）上的支出约为 750 亿美元，较 2023 年的 480 亿美元大幅增加。</p>
<p>这也可能意味着其他业务正在更好地发挥作用。亚马逊正在重组电子商务业务的多个领域，以提高效率，看来成效显著。&#34;最后一公里&#34;通常是过程中的最昂贵部分，而现在亚马逊已经转向区域分销系统，使得将产品送到更近的客户变得便宜得多。它在这个过程中也使用了更多的机器人，从而弥补了一部分人力成本。</p>
<p>一些基于服务的业务，利润率较高，也在快速增长。其广告支持的流媒体层受到了积极反响，广告部门的销售同比增长了 18%。</p>
<p>随着营业收入的大幅增长，亚马逊在第四季度达到了新的里程碑，创下了历史最高的季度和年度营业利润率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/042df5e3f60d1a8858f8f454bdd734f4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/042df5e3f60d1a8858f8f454bdd734f4.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 营业利润率（年度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>亚马逊将营业收入视为其基准盈利能力指标，但它还报告了历史最高的年度利润率为 9.3%。这些利润率意味着，从历史角度来看，亚马逊正处于盈利能力的巅峰。</p>
<h2>这不会持续……至少目前是这样</h2>
<p>在第四季度报告后，专家们讨论的一个话题是管理层对 AI 业务的投资。杰西表示，第四季度的资本支出为 263 亿美元，其中大部分用于 AI，这为 2025 年的年度运行率提供了良好的参考框架。那将总计超过 1050 亿美元。</p>
<p>虽然这看起来可能很激进，但亚马逊认为这是至关重要和必要的。杰西多次表示，AI 机会巨大且几乎前所未有，而亚马逊的远见业务和实现这一目标的能力使其成为电子商务和云计算的主导者。</p>
<p>杰西解释说，生成性 AI 将成为应用开发的标准元素，就像存储和数据库一样。作为云计算的领导者，亚马逊可以通过早期投资在这一领域获得优势。</p>
<p>这带来的负面影响是，资本支出可能会在短期内对亚马逊的收益产生负面影响。在第四季度报告了惊人的盈利能力后，管理层预计 2025 年第一季度将出现大幅放缓。它预计营业收入将在 140 亿到 180 亿美元之间，而去年同期为 153 亿美元。</p>
<h2>它会再次达到</h2>
<p>亚马逊在短期内不太可能保持这种盈利能力的巅峰，但在某个时刻它可能会再次达到。它继续完善其履行流程，并在高利润业务上取得进展。AWS 是一个高利润的业务，随着 DeepSeek 和亚马逊自己的新大型语言模型 Nova 等新开发的低成本技术的出现，AI 的运营成本可能会随着技术的进步而大幅降低。</p>
<p>今天，有很多理由让人对亚马逊及其潜力感到兴奋，而其在盈利能力方面的进展就是其中之一。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊最近公布的第四季度业绩显示，收入增长了 10%，营业收入大幅上升 61%，达到 212 亿美元。该公司实现了历史最高的季度和年度营业利润率，利润率为 9.3%。尽管第一季度的指引有所下滑，亚马逊仍在人工智能方面进行大量投资，并重组其电子商务业务以提高效率。虽然短期收益可能受到影响，但长期前景依然乐观，因为亚马逊继续创新并利用其云计算的主导地位</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) surprised investors last week with its underwhelming first-quarter guidance. The stock fell, but it's already on the rebound as smart investors see beyond somewhat disappointing quarterly guidance. After all, there was a lot to love about the quarter, and even more to love about how Amazon is leveraging its dominant position in cloud computing to boost its artificial intelligence (AI) business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 上周以其不尽如人意的第一季度指引让投资者感到意外。股价下跌，但由于聪明的投资者看到了略显失望的季度指引背后的潜力，股价已经开始反弹。毕竟，这个季度有很多值得称道的地方，更有值得称道的是亚马逊如何利用其在云计算领域的主导地位来推动其人工智能（AI）业务。</p>
</div><p>Between all the talk about AI and guidance, there was an important milestone Amazon reached that got overshadowed. But it bodes well for Amazon's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在关于人工智能和指引的讨论中，亚马逊达成了一个重要的里程碑，但这一点被掩盖了。不过，这对亚马逊的未来是个好兆头。</p>
</div><h2>It all boils down to profits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一切归结于利润</h2>
</div><p>By most accounts, Amazon had a stellar fourth quarter. Revenue increased 10% year over year, coming in at the high end of guidance, which was 7% to 11%. CEO Andy Jassy said that it would have reached 11% without foreign exchange impacts, which negatively affected Amazon due to the strong dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据大多数人的说法，亚马逊在第四季度表现出色。收入同比增长 10%，达到了指引的高端，指引范围为 7% 到 11%。首席执行官安迪·杰西表示，如果没有外汇影响，收入将达到 11%，而强势美元对亚马逊产生了负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Revenue growth was solid, but operating income growth was spectacular. It increased 61% over last year to $21.2 billion, exceeding expectations of $16 billion to $20 billion, up from $13.2 billion last year. As usual, Amazon Web Services (AWS) provided an outsize portion of operating income -- exactly half. However, it was a much lower percentage than in previous quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入增长稳健，但营业收入增长则令人瞩目。营业收入同比增长 61%，达到 212 亿美元，超出预期的 160 亿到 200 亿美元，较去年的 132 亿美元大幅上升。和往常一样，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）贡献了营业收入的很大一部分——正好占一半。然而，这一比例比之前的季度要低得多。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Q1 24</th>
<th>Q2 24</th>
<th>Q3 24</th>
<th>Q4 24</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AWS percentage of operating income</td>
<td>61%</td>
<td>63%</td>
<td>60%</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>Q1 24</th>
<th>Q2 24</th>
<th>Q3 24</th>
<th>Q4 24</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AWS 营业收入占比</td>
<td>61%</td>
<td>63%</td>
<td>60%</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Amazon's quarterly reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：亚马逊季度报告。</p>
</div><p>AWS operating income increased 47% year over year in the fourth quarter, lower than the whole. Amazon is investing more in AWS' generative AI program, which could be pulling down AWS' profits. It spent about $75 billion on capital expenditures (capex) in 2024, a large increase from $48 billion in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 的营业收入在第四季度同比增长 47%，低于整体水平。亚马逊正在加大对 AWS 生成性 AI 项目的投资，这可能会拉低 AWS 的利润。2024 年，亚马逊在资本支出（capex）上的支出约为 750 亿美元，较 2023 年的 480 亿美元大幅增加。</p>
</div><p>It could also mean some of the other businesses are pulling more of their own weight. Amazon has been restructuring many areas of the e-commerce business to become more efficient, and it looks like it's paying off. The &#34;last mile&#34; is usually the most expensive part of the process, and now that Amazon has switched to a regional distribution system, it's a lot cheaper to get products to customers who are now closer. It also uses more robotics in the process, making up some of the cost of human labor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也可能意味着其他业务正在更好地发挥作用。亚马逊正在重组电子商务业务的多个领域，以提高效率，看来成效显著。&#34;最后一公里&#34;通常是过程中的最昂贵部分，而现在亚马逊已经转向区域分销系统，使得将产品送到更近的客户变得便宜得多。它在这个过程中也使用了更多的机器人，从而弥补了一部分人力成本。</p>
</div><p>Some of its service-based businesses, which are higher-margin, are also growing quickly. It's seeing a positive reaction to its ad-supported streaming tier, and advertising segment sales increased 18% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些基于服务的业务，利润率较高，也在快速增长。其广告支持的流媒体层受到了积极反响，广告部门的销售同比增长了 18%。</p>
</div><p>With the high increase in operating income, Amazon hit a new milestone in the fourth quarter with its highest-ever quarterly and annual operating margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着营业收入的大幅增长，亚马逊在第四季度达到了新的里程碑，创下了历史最高的季度和年度营业利润率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/042df5e3f60d1a8858f8f454bdd734f4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/042df5e3f60d1a8858f8f454bdd734f4.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Operating Margin (Annual) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 营业利润率（年度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Amazon considers operating income its baseline profitability metric, but it also reported its highest-ever annual profit margin at 9.3%. These margins mean that Amazon is at peak profitability, historically speaking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊将营业收入视为其基准盈利能力指标，但它还报告了历史最高的年度利润率为 9.3%。这些利润率意味着，从历史角度来看，亚马逊正处于盈利能力的巅峰。</p>
</div><h2>It isn't likely to last... for now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这不会持续……至少目前是这样</h2>
</div><p>One of the talking points experts have been discussing after the fourth-quarter report is management's investment in the AI business. Jassy said that the fourth-quarter figure of $26.3 billion in capex, most of which is going to AI, was a good frame of reference for what it expects as an annual run rate in 2025. That would be a total of more than $105 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第四季度报告后，专家们讨论的一个话题是管理层对 AI 业务的投资。杰西表示，第四季度的资本支出为 263 亿美元，其中大部分用于 AI，这为 2025 年的年度运行率提供了良好的参考框架。那将总计超过 1050 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While that could appear drastic, Amazon sees it as crucial and necessary. Jassy has repeatedly said that the AI opportunity is massive and nearly unprecedented, and Amazon's visionary businesses and capabilities to bring it to fruition is how it has become the dominant player in e-commerce and cloud computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这看起来可能很激进，但亚马逊认为这是至关重要和必要的。杰西多次表示，AI 机会巨大且几乎前所未有，而亚马逊的远见业务和实现这一目标的能力使其成为电子商务和云计算的主导者。</p>
</div><p>Jassy explained that generative AI is going to become a standard element of application development, like storage and databases. As the leader in cloud computing, Amazon can benefit by investing early and gaining an edge in this space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰西解释说，生成性 AI 将成为应用开发的标准元素，就像存储和数据库一样。作为云计算的领导者，亚马逊可以通过早期投资在这一领域获得优势。</p>
</div><p>The downside of this is that the capex is likely to impact Amazon's earnings negatively over the short term. After the phenomenal profitability it reported in the fourth quarter, management is guiding for a major slowdown in the 2025 first quarter. It's guiding for operating income in the range of $14 billion to $18 billion, compared to $15.3 billion in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这带来的负面影响是，资本支出可能会在短期内对亚马逊的收益产生负面影响。在第四季度报告了惊人的盈利能力后，管理层预计 2025 年第一季度将出现大幅放缓。它预计营业收入将在 140 亿到 180 亿美元之间，而去年同期为 153 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>It will get there again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>它会再次达到</h2>
</div><p>Amazon isn't likely to keep this peak profitability in the near term, but it's likely to get there again at some point. It continues to refine its fulfillment process, and it's making strides in the higher-margin businesses. AWS is a high-margin business, and with the new, lower-cost developments like DeepSeek and Amazon's own new large language model, Nova, AI is likely to become a lot cheaper to run as the tech advances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在短期内不太可能保持这种盈利能力的巅峰，但在某个时刻它可能会再次达到。它继续完善其履行流程，并在高利润业务上取得进展。AWS 是一个高利润的业务，随着 DeepSeek 和亚马逊自己的新大型语言模型 Nova 等新开发的低成本技术的出现，AI 的运营成本可能会随着技术的进步而大幅降低。</p>
</div><p>There are many reasons to be excited about Amazon and its potential today, and its progress in profitability is one of them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，有很多理由让人对亚马逊及其潜力感到兴奋，而其在盈利能力方面的进展就是其中之一。</p>
</div>

Amazon Just Hit a Major Milestone That You Don't Want to Ignore

- 亚马逊第四季度营收同比增长 10%，运营收入增长 61% 达到 212 亿美元。  
- 公司在云计算和人工智能领域的投资将影响短期盈利，但长期前景乐观。  
- 管理层预计 2025 年第一季度运营收入将降至 140 亿至 180 亿美元。  

亚马逊刚刚达成了一个你不容忽视的重要里程碑