<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 2.63%）的股票并不常常便宜，过去几年每次下跌都是一个绝佳的买入机会。目前，由于 DeepSeek 革命性的人工智能（AI）模型的恐慌，英伟达的股价仍远低于历史最高点，该模型据说训练成本比大多数美国模型更低。普遍的担忧是，训练 AI 模型所需的计算能力没有想象中那么多，这将对英伟达的业务造成伤害。</p>
<p>虽然这种想法有一定道理，但我认为并不准确，因为一些英伟达最大客户的支出预测持续上升。因此，我认为历史将重演，现在是英伟达股票的绝佳买入机会。</p>
<h2>英伟达的收入将在 2025 年大幅上升</h2>
<p>英伟达在过去几年中占据主导地位，因为它推动了大量的 AI 创新。其图形处理单元（GPU）可以并行处理计算，这使得它们在训练 AI 模型等高强度工作负载中更为有效。此外，当公司购买 GPU 时，通常不会只买一两个，而是购买成千上万的 GPU 并将其连接成集群，进一步增强计算能力。英伟达的 GPU 已成为 AI 领域的首选，其业绩也证明了这一点。</p>
<p>英伟达每个季度都报告了出色的收入增长，推动股价达到新高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96bb7c087d106d814068e006fe57c125.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96bb7c087d106d814068e006fe57c125.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>虽然英伟达的收入增长确实在放缓，但 94% 的增长率并不令人失望。随着英伟达业务的扩大，其增长率自然会放缓，因为规模越大，增长就越困难。不过，这并没有阻止英伟达发布令人瞩目的增长数字：华尔街分析师预计 2025 财年第三季度增长 72%，2026 财年增长 52%，达到 1960 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，在 DeepSeek 宣布了一种更高效的训练生成 AI 模型的方法后，这些数字受到质疑。虽然这些效率提升是真实的，许多公司正在努力将其整合到他们的模型中，但这并不改变处理所有这些 AI 工作负载所需的计算基础设施要多得多的事实。这导致许多英伟达最大的客户表示，他们 2025 年的资本支出将远高于往年。</p>
<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 1.11%）表示，今年将花费 600 亿到 650 亿美元用于资本支出。<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.54%）（GOOGL -0.49%）的支出甚至更高，达到 750 亿美元。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.73%）预计 2025 年的资本支出将达到约 1000 亿美元。显然，2025 年的支出水平将前所未有。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2d22705033e3b9de2054ba0a55d5054.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2d22705033e3b9de2054ba0a55d5054.png"/></p>
<p>META 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>这对英伟达的业务是个好兆头，因为这些公司是其最大的客户之一。显然，英伟达的业务在未来一年及更长时间内将保持强劲。再加上英伟达的股票目前处于低价，我认为未来对这只股票和公司来说都是光明的。</p>
<h2>英伟达的股票在类似估值水平下表现良好</h2>
<p>上一次英伟达的股票在市盈率（P/E）指标上如此便宜是在 2024 年 8 月。从那时起，尽管受到 DeepSeek 引发的抛售，股价仍上涨了约 25%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9dc4da754482e42fd6d6b034213aa7b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9dc4da754482e42fd6d6b034213aa7b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>要找到英伟达的股票在未来收益低于 30 倍的交易情况，还要追溯到 2024 年 5 月，而从那个水平起，股价几乎上涨了 60%。</p>
<p>这些回报令人难以置信，任何投资者都会对投资组合中有这样的股票感到满意。</p>
<p>历史站在英伟达这一边，股票看起来历史上便宜。许多英伟达最大的客户表示，AI 支出将持续增加，这对股票和公司都是好兆头。因此，英伟达的股票现在看起来是一个强劲的买入机会。</p>

谷歌-C

亚马逊

英伟达

谷歌-A

<p>英伟达的股票目前处于近一年未见的低点，呈现出潜在的买入机会。尽管对人工智能训练效率的担忧，Meta、Alphabet 和亚马逊等主要客户预计将在 2025 年大幅增加资本支出，这对英伟达的收入增长是个好兆头。分析师预计英伟达在未来几年将实现显著的增长率，历史趋势表明，在这个估值水平买入可能会带来强劲的回报。总体而言，英伟达的股票在此时看来是一个强烈的买入机会</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 2.63%) stock isn't cheap all that often, and any time it has sold off over the past few years has been an incredible buying opportunity. Right now, Nvidia is still well off of its all-time high thanks to the scare caused by DeepSeek's revolutionary artificial intelligence (AI) model, which was reportedly trained more cheaply than most U.S. models. The prevailing fear is that not as much computing power is needed to train AI models as once thought, which would harm Nvidia's business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 2.63%）的股票并不常常便宜，过去几年每次下跌都是一个绝佳的买入机会。目前，由于 DeepSeek 革命性的人工智能（AI）模型的恐慌，英伟达的股价仍远低于历史最高点，该模型据说训练成本比大多数美国模型更低。普遍的担忧是，训练 AI 模型所需的计算能力没有想象中那么多，这将对英伟达的业务造成伤害。</p>
</div><p>While there is some merit to this thinking, I don't think it's accurate, as the spending projections from some of Nvidia's biggest clients keep increasing. As a result, I think history will repeat itself, making right now a fantastic buying opportunity for Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这种想法有一定道理，但我认为并不准确，因为一些英伟达最大客户的支出预测持续上升。因此，我认为历史将重演，现在是英伟达股票的绝佳买入机会。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's revenue will dramatically rise again in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的收入将在 2025 年大幅上升</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has been dominant over the past few years because it is powering a large chunk of the AI innovations. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) can process calculations in parallel, which makes them far more useful for intense workloads like training an AI model. Furthermore, when companies buy a GPU, they don't buy just one or two; they buy thousands and connect them in clusters, further amplifying their computing power. Nvidia's GPUs have become the top pick for anyone in the AI field, as its results back it up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在过去几年中占据主导地位，因为它推动了大量的 AI 创新。其图形处理单元（GPU）可以并行处理计算，这使得它们在训练 AI 模型等高强度工作负载中更为有效。此外，当公司购买 GPU 时，通常不会只买一两个，而是购买成千上万的 GPU 并将其连接成集群，进一步增强计算能力。英伟达的 GPU 已成为 AI 领域的首选，其业绩也证明了这一点。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has reported stellar revenue growth quarter after quarter, driving the stock to new heights.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达每个季度都报告了出色的收入增长，推动股价达到新高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96bb7c087d106d814068e006fe57c125.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96bb7c087d106d814068e006fe57c125.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While it's true Nvidia's revenue growth is slowing, 94% growth is nothing to be disappointed with. As Nvidia becomes a larger business, its growth rate will naturally slow, as it becomes harder to grow the larger you get. Still, that isn't stopping Nvidia from posting jaw-dropping growth numbers: Wall Street analysts expect 72% growth for Q3 FY 2025 and 52% growth to $196 billion for FY 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然英伟达的收入增长确实在放缓，但 94% 的增长率并不令人失望。随着英伟达业务的扩大，其增长率自然会放缓，因为规模越大，增长就越困难。不过，这并没有阻止英伟达发布令人瞩目的增长数字：华尔街分析师预计 2025 财年第三季度增长 72%，2026 财年增长 52%，达到 1960 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>However, those numbers were called into question after DeepSeek announced a more efficient way to train its generative AI model. While these efficiency gains are real, and many companies are working to integrate them into their models, they don't change the fact that a lot more computing infrastructure is needed to handle all these AI workloads. This has led to many of Nvidia's largest clients stating that their capital expenditures for 2025 will be much higher than in previous years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 DeepSeek 宣布了一种更高效的训练生成 AI 模型的方法后，这些数字受到质疑。虽然这些效率提升是真实的，许多公司正在努力将其整合到他们的模型中，但这并不改变处理所有这些 AI 工作负载所需的计算基础设施要多得多的事实。这导致许多英伟达最大的客户表示，他们 2025 年的资本支出将远高于往年。</p>
</div><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 1.11%) stated that it will spend $60 billion to $65 billion on capital expenditures this year. <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG -0.54%)(GOOGL -0.49%) is even higher at $75 billion. <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.73%) tops the charts with around $100 billion in capital expenditures expected for 2025. It's clear that there will be an unprecedented level of spending in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 1.11%）表示，今年将花费 600 亿到 650 亿美元用于资本支出。<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.54%）（GOOGL -0.49%）的支出甚至更高，达到 750 亿美元。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.73%）预计 2025 年的资本支出将达到约 1000 亿美元。显然，2025 年的支出水平将前所未有。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2d22705033e3b9de2054ba0a55d5054.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2d22705033e3b9de2054ba0a55d5054.png"/></p>
<p>META Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>This bodes well for Nvidia's business, as these companies are among its biggest clients. Clearly, Nvidia's business will remain strong over the next year and likely well past that. Combined with Nvidia's stock being on sale, I'd say the future looks bright for both the stock and the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对英伟达的业务是个好兆头，因为这些公司是其最大的客户之一。显然，英伟达的业务在未来一年及更长时间内将保持强劲。再加上英伟达的股票目前处于低价，我认为未来对这只股票和公司来说都是光明的。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's stock has performed well for investors who bought at similar valuation levels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的股票在类似估值水平下表现良好</h2>
</div><p>The last time Nvidia's stock was this cheap in terms of its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) metric was in August 2024. Since then, the stock has risen around 25%, even with the DeepSeek-induced sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一次英伟达的股票在市盈率（P/E）指标上如此便宜是在 2024 年 8 月。从那时起，尽管受到 DeepSeek 引发的抛售，股价仍上涨了约 25%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9dc4da754482e42fd6d6b034213aa7b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9dc4da754482e42fd6d6b034213aa7b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>You have to go even further back to find when Nvidia's stock was trading under 30 times forward earnings. That was in May 2024, and the stock has risen nearly 60% from that level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要找到英伟达的股票在未来收益低于 30 倍的交易情况，还要追溯到 2024 年 5 月，而从那个水平起，股价几乎上涨了 60%。</p>
</div><p>Those are incredible returns, and any investor would be satisfied with a stock like that in their portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些回报令人难以置信，任何投资者都会对投资组合中有这样的股票感到满意。</p>
</div><p>History is on Nvidia's side, and the stock looks historically cheap. Many of Nvidia's largest clients have stated that AI spending is going to keep increasing, which bodes well for the stock and the company. As a result, Nvidia's stock looks like a strong buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史站在英伟达这一边，股票看起来历史上便宜。许多英伟达最大的客户表示，AI 支出将持续增加，这对股票和公司都是好兆头。因此，英伟达的股票现在看起来是一个强劲的买入机会。</p>
</div>

Nvidia's Stock Hasn't Been This Cheap in Nearly a Year. Here's What History Says Happens Next.

- Nvidia 股票当前价格较低，历史上每次回调都是买入良机。  
- 预计 2025 年 Nvidia 收入将大幅增长，主要客户资本支出显著增加。  
- Nvidia 股票被认为是强劲买入机会，未来前景乐观。

英伟达的股票近一年以来从未如此便宜。历史告诉我们接下来可能会发生什么