<p>如果你在这个行业待得够久，你会遇到一些波折。这对于 <strong>好时公司</strong>（HSY -0.98%）来说也是如此，该公司的历史可以追溯到 19 世纪 90 年代。如今，该公司是全球最具标志性的食品和饮料品牌之一。</p>
<p>该股从高峰下跌超过 40%，这令人震惊，因为整体股市正处于历史高位。好时股票上一次如此大幅下跌是在 2008 年的全球经济衰退期间。然而，这一次的问题在于公司本身。好时正面临巨大的利润压力，以及对 GLP-1 激动剂（一种流行的减肥药物）可能使消费者远离甜食的担忧。</p>
<p>我承认：乍一看并不美观。但如果深入挖掘，这只股票可能是华尔街上最好的交易之一。以下是投资者今天应该考虑购买好时并永远持有的原因。</p>
<h2>好时是一只受挫的股票，而不是一家受挫的企业</h2>
<p>正如我所说，好时目前正经历危机。该公司最近完成了 2024 财年的报告，并发布了令人失望的 2025 年指导，预计每股收益为 6 美元到 6.18 美元，较 2024 年的 9.37 美元大幅下降。这家糖果巨头将预期的下降归因于更高的商品成本、重新调整的激励薪酬和更高的税率。</p>
<p>并不是说好时没有在销售甜食；管理层预计 2025 年的收入增长为 2%。这一切都与（主要是）可可价格相关的基础成本有关。你可以看到，可可价格在市场泡沫中像 meme 股票一样暴涨：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的可可豆价格数据</p>
<p>原因是什么？全球约 70% 的可可来自西非。恶劣的天气影响了作物产量，并扰乱了全球供应。好时通过提价来应对不断上涨的成本，但这也有其极限。今年，好时将更加感受到高可可价格的冲击。根据行业分析师的说法，除非生产进一步受到干扰，否则可可价格预计将在今年开始缓解。</p>
<p>减肥药呢？目前，对此的担忧似乎更像是虚张声势。好时的管理层在第四季度的财报电话会议上特别指出，未看到 GLP-1 激动剂对销售产生任何实质性影响。事情恢复正常需要时间，但这一切都与好时无关。这是否不幸？当然。然而，这并不意味着好时是一家糟糕的企业。</p>
<h2>是的，好时是一家优质企业，且是经过验证的复合增长者</h2>
<p>你永远不想让股价单独决定你对一家企业的看法。股票会涨也会跌。然而，如果你购买并持有优质公司，它们应该会在长期内逐渐上涨。</p>
<p>好时是一家世界级公司，原因远不止其知名的零食和糖果品牌，如 Reese's、Twizzlers、Almond Joy、Skinny Pop 等。该企业在经济好坏中都蓬勃发展，成为消费者（主要是美国人）全年购买的文化主食。</p>
<p>该企业的盈利能力和效率也非常高。好时过去五年的投资资本回报率（ROIC）平均超过 21%。此外，每年每一美元的收入中有 0.15 到 0.20 美元产生自由现金流。因此，当你在资本运用上盈利且高效时，你并不需要巨大的增长来创造股东价值。</p>
<p>好时的股票近年来下滑；但在历史上，它的表现超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。自 1989 年以来，股票回报超过 4200%，包括股票下跌 42%！正如我上面所说，好时目前的困境可能并不反映其业务，因此投资者可以对股票恢复到过去辉煌的表现持更乐观的态度。</p>
<h2>而且它的价格是多年来最低的</h2>
<p>好时忠实地支付股息，管理层已连续 15 年提高股息。根据 2025 年的指导，该公司在技术上可以承担其股息，尽管这将比最近的记忆更加紧张，因此投资者应考虑这一点。</p>
<p>也就是说，投资者可以通过股息收益来评估股息股票。你可以看到好时的股息收益率很少达到如此水平：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 HSY 股息收益率数据</p>
<p>这枚硬币有两面。从股息的角度来看，好时的股票是多年来最便宜的。同时，好时的股票风险也比最近的记忆更高。关键是投资者必须决定他们是否认为好时的问题会随着时间的推移而消失。</p>
<p>如果是这样，好时可能会在最终恢复到其历史标准时产生巨大的投资回报。证据表明，随着可可价格的缓解，好时将会反弹。当然，这可能需要时间。在此之前，好时仍然是一只受伤的蓝筹股，值得在多元化投资组合中冒险。</p>

好时

<p>好时的股票从峰值下跌了 42%，这归因于利润压力和对减肥药影响糖果销售的担忧。尽管 2025 年的前景充满挑战，预计每股收益将下降，但好时仍然是一家强劲的企业，拥有盈利历史和稳健的分红记录。分析师建议可可价格可能会稳定，这可能有助于股票的恢复。考虑到其历史表现和市场韧性，投资者被鼓励将好时视为长期持有的选择</p>

<p>If you've been around long enough, you will encounter some bumps in the road. This is true for <strong>The Hershey Company</strong>(HSY -0.98%), whose history dates back to the 1890s. The company is among the most iconic global food and beverage brands today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在这个行业待得够久，你会遇到一些波折。这对于 <strong>好时公司</strong>（HSY -0.98%）来说也是如此，该公司的历史可以追溯到 19 世纪 90 年代。如今，该公司是全球最具标志性的食品和饮料品牌之一。</p>
</div><p>The stock has fallen over 40% from its peak, which is shocking considering the broader stock market is at all-time highs. The last time Hershey's stock took a tumble this bad was during a global recession in 2008. However, this time it's about the company. Hershey is dealing with crushing margin pressure and fears that GLP-1 agonists, a popular weight loss drug, are turning consumers away from sweets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股从高峰下跌超过 40%，这令人震惊，因为整体股市正处于历史高位。好时股票上一次如此大幅下跌是在 2008 年的全球经济衰退期间。然而，这一次的问题在于公司本身。好时正面临巨大的利润压力，以及对 GLP-1 激动剂（一种流行的减肥药物）可能使消费者远离甜食的担忧。</p>
</div><p>I'll admit: It's not pretty at first glance. But if you dig deeper, the stock could be among the best deals on Wall Street. Here is why investors should consider buying Hershey today and holding it forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我承认：乍一看并不美观。但如果深入挖掘，这只股票可能是华尔街上最好的交易之一。以下是投资者今天应该考虑购买好时并永远持有的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Hershey's a broken stock, not a broken business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好时是一只受挫的股票，而不是一家受挫的企业</h2>
</div><p>As I said, Hershey is experiencing a crisis right now. The company recently completed its 2024 fiscal reporting and released woeful 2025 guidance, calling for earnings per share of $6 to $6.18, down significantly from $9.37 in 2024. The confectionery giant blamed the anticipated decline on higher commodity costs, rebased incentive compensation, and a higher tax rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我所说，好时目前正经历危机。该公司最近完成了 2024 财年的报告，并发布了令人失望的 2025 年指导，预计每股收益为 6 美元到 6.18 美元，较 2024 年的 9.37 美元大幅下降。这家糖果巨头将预期的下降归因于更高的商品成本、重新调整的激励薪酬和更高的税率。</p>
</div><p>It's not that Hershey isn't selling sweets; management guided for 2% revenue growth for 2025. This is all about the underlying costs associated (primarily) with cocoa prices. You can see that cocoa prices have exploded like a meme stock in a market bubble:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是说好时没有在销售甜食；管理层预计 2025 年的收入增长为 2%。这一切都与（主要是）可可价格相关的基础成本有关。你可以看到，可可价格在市场泡沫中像 meme 股票一样暴涨：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png"/></p>
<p>Cocoa Bean Price data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的可可豆价格数据</p>
</div><p>The reason? Roughly 70% of the world's cocoa comes from West Africa. Adverse weather has hurt crop yields and disrupted the global supply. Hershey has combated rising costs with price increases, but you can only do that so much. This year, Hershey will feel more of the brunt of high cocoa prices. According to industry analysts, cocoa prices should begin to ease this year, barring further disruptions to production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因是什么？全球约 70% 的可可来自西非。恶劣的天气影响了作物产量，并扰乱了全球供应。好时通过提价来应对不断上涨的成本，但这也有其极限。今年，好时将更加感受到高可可价格的冲击。根据行业分析师的说法，除非生产进一步受到干扰，否则可可价格预计将在今年开始缓解。</p>
</div><p>What about weight loss drugs? Right now, fears seem more like bark than bite. Hershey's management noted specifically on its fourth-quarter earnings call that it's not seeing any material impact on sales due to GLP-1 agonists. It will take time for things to normalize again, but this is all external to Hershey. Is this unfortunate? Of course. However, it doesn't mean Hershey is a lousy business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>减肥药呢？目前，对此的担忧似乎更像是虚张声势。好时的管理层在第四季度的财报电话会议上特别指出，未看到 GLP-1 激动剂对销售产生任何实质性影响。事情恢复正常需要时间，但这一切都与好时无关。这是否不幸？当然。然而，这并不意味着好时是一家糟糕的企业。</p>
</div><h2>Yes, Hershey is a quality business and a proven compounder</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是的，好时是一家优质企业，且是经过验证的复合增长者</h2>
</div><p>You never want to let share prices alone dictate your view on a business. Stocks go up and down. However, if you buy and hold quality companies, they should drift higher over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你永远不想让股价单独决定你对一家企业的看法。股票会涨也会跌。然而，如果你购买并持有优质公司，它们应该会在长期内逐渐上涨。</p>
</div><p>Hershey is a world-class company for reasons far beyond its well-known snacks and candy brands, such as Reese's, Twizzlers, Almond Joy, Skinny Pop, and more. The business has thrived through good and bad economies, becoming a cultural staple consumers (primarily Americans) buy year-round.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好时是一家世界级公司，原因远不止其知名的零食和糖果品牌，如 Reese's、Twizzlers、Almond Joy、Skinny Pop 等。该企业在经济好坏中都蓬勃发展，成为消费者（主要是美国人）全年购买的文化主食。</p>
</div><p>The business is also highly profitable and efficient. Hershey's return on invested capital (ROIC) has averaged over 21% over the past five years. Additionally, $0.15 to $0.20 of every revenue dollar generates free cash flow each year. Thus, you don't need tremendous growth to create shareholder value when you're profitable and efficient with your capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该企业的盈利能力和效率也非常高。好时过去五年的投资资本回报率（ROIC）平均超过 21%。此外，每年每一美元的收入中有 0.15 到 0.20 美元产生自由现金流。因此，当你在资本运用上盈利且高效时，你并不需要巨大的增长来创造股东价值。</p>
</div><p>Hershey's stock has slumped in recent years; it has trounced the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index throughout history. Shares have returned over 4,200% since 1989, including the stock's 42% drop! As I said above, Hershey's current woes likely don't reflect the business, so investors can be more optimistic about the stock reverting to its glorious winning ways of past years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好时的股票近年来下滑；但在历史上，它的表现超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。自 1989 年以来，股票回报超过 4200%，包括股票下跌 42%！正如我上面所说，好时目前的困境可能并不反映其业务，因此投资者可以对股票恢复到过去辉煌的表现持更乐观的态度。</p>
</div><h2>And it happens to be the cheapest it's been in years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>而且它的价格是多年来最低的</h2>
</div><p>Hershey faithfully pays a dividend, which management has increased annually for 15 consecutive years. The company can technically afford its dividend with guided 2025 earnings, though it will be much tighter than in recent memory, so investors should keep that in mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好时忠实地支付股息，管理层已连续 15 年提高股息。根据 2025 年的指导，该公司在技术上可以承担其股息，尽管这将比最近的记忆更加紧张，因此投资者应考虑这一点。</p>
</div><p>That said, investors can value a dividend stock by its yield. You can see that Hershey's dividend seldom yields this much:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，投资者可以通过股息收益来评估股息股票。你可以看到好时的股息收益率很少达到如此水平：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png"/></p>
<p>HSY Dividend Yield data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 HSY 股息收益率数据</p>
</div><p>There are two sides to the coin. Hershey's stock is the cheapest in years from the perspective of its dividend. At the same time, there's more risk in Hershey's stock than in recent memory. The key takeaway is that investors must decide whether they think Hershey's problems will disappear over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这枚硬币有两面。从股息的角度来看，好时的股票是多年来最便宜的。同时，好时的股票风险也比最近的记忆更高。关键是投资者必须决定他们是否认为好时的问题会随着时间的推移而消失。</p>
</div><p>If so, Hershey could generate tremendous investment returns as it eventually reverts to its historical norms. The evidence suggests that Hershey will rebound as cocoa prices ease. Of course, that may take time. Until then, Hershey remains a wounded blue chip stock worth rolling the dice on in a diversified portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是这样，好时可能会在最终恢复到其历史标准时产生巨大的投资回报。证据表明，随着可可价格的缓解，好时将会反弹。当然，这可能需要时间。在此之前，好时仍然是一只受伤的蓝筹股，值得在多元化投资组合中冒险。</p>
</div>

一只辉煌的标普 500 股息股票下跌 42%，值得长期买入和持有