<p>近期股市似乎正处于一场风暴之中。在一月的最后几天，一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司发布了一款类似于 ChatGPT 的人工智能（AI）模型，震动了全球，并声称其 AI 是使用美国开发者不常用的传统架构进行训练的。</p>
<p>自 DeepSeek 出现以来，科技股普遍波动加剧，但没有哪只股票受到的打击像 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.63%) 那么严重。投资者们惊慌失措，担心 Nvidia 的新芯片可能不再那么必要，考虑到 DeepSeek 的声明。</p>
<p>尽管围绕 Nvidia 未来前景的不确定性令人困惑，但该公司的几大合作伙伴已经开始透露 DeepSeek 如何影响他们自己的 AI 路线图。我将分析这些趋势，并评估它们可能对 Nvidia 产生的影响。</p>
<h2>审视大型科技公司的 AI 基础设施计划</h2>
<p>Nvidia 的财富主要来自其计算和网络业务，该业务销售被称为图形处理单元（GPU）的先进芯片。GPU 对于生成性 AI 应用至关重要，主要存放在大型数据中心中。</p>
<p>虽然 DeepSeek 声称其 AI 是使用 Nvidia 的旧 H800 GPU 构建的，但验证这一点的准确性一直很困难。尽管如此，Nvidia 的&#34;七大巨头&#34;同行都已报告了 2024 年全年的收益，并且它们的 AI 整体布局之间有一个共同的线索。</p>
<p><strong>微软</strong> 率先宣布今年将在数据中心和其他 AI 基础设施项目上花费 800 亿美元。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 随后也公布了其激进的支出计划，暗示该公司今年的资本支出（capex）可能高达 650 亿美元。最后，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong> 预计今年在 AI 资本支出上的总支出将达到 1800 亿美元。</p>
<p>从表面上看，大型科技公司今年上升的资本支出计划应该被视为对 Nvidia 的积极信号。然而，当 Nvidia 在 2 月 26 日报告收益时，有一件事我认为投资者需要特别关注。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc1ODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEzMTE5ODI1OS0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc1ODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEzMTE5ODI1OS0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>投资者在 Nvidia 报告收益时应该关注什么？</h2>
<p>投资者应该仔细聆听管理层关于我提到的大型科技公司支出的评论。虽然 Nvidia 不会捕获所有这些支出，但投资者仍然应该能够窥见&#34;七大巨头&#34;将分配多少资本支出给 Nvidia。</p>
<p>在我看来，了解这一点的最佳方法是查看 Nvidia 的财务指引。如果公司的增长率在加速，我会认为这是大型科技公司今年将重金投入 Nvidia 最新芯片架构的良好指标。但相反，如果 Nvidia 的指引显示增长明显放缓，可能是其最大客户仍在购买 Nvidia 的产品，但购买方式更加缓慢。</p>
<h2>在 2 月 26 日之前，Nvidia 股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>我很少鼓励投资时机的把握。作为长期投资者，在特定日期购买股票并不是最重要的因素。更重要的是重新评估你对持有股票的信心，只要你保持乐观，采用多年分批投资的策略通常是成功的秘诀。</p>
<p>这是一个罕见的机会，我认为在收益发布前买入 Nvidia 的下跌可能是一个不错的选择。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0bd820a73e570d12ca27b3d44da3839b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0bd820a73e570d12ca27b3d44da3839b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>考虑到历史数据显示 Nvidia 股票在第四季度收益发布后确实会上涨，加上大型科技公司今年的资本支出计划，以及 DeepSeek 抛售后的股价回升，我对 Nvidia 股票目前是一个有利可图的机会持谨慎乐观态度。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

英伟达

亚马逊

<p>英伟达的股票因来自中国人工智能初创公司 DeepSeek 的竞争而面临波动，该公司声称已开发出类似的人工智能模型。尽管存在担忧，微软、Meta、Alphabet 和亚马逊等主要科技公司正在大幅增加其人工智能基础设施支出，这可能会惠及英伟达。投资者应关注英伟达将于 2 月 26 日发布的财报，以获取有关其增长和这些科技巨头资本支出的见解。作者建议，在财报发布前购买英伟达股票可能是一个不错的策略，考虑到历史趋势和当前市场状况</p>

<p>The stock market appears to be in the middle of quite the storm as of late. In the final days of January, a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek sent shock waves around the world after it released an artificial intelligence (AI) model similar to ChatGPT -- and claims to have trained its AI with legacy architectures that aren't widely leveraged by U.S. developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期股市似乎正处于一场风暴之中。在一月的最后几天，一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司发布了一款类似于 ChatGPT 的人工智能（AI）模型，震动了全球，并声称其 AI 是使用美国开发者不常用的传统架构进行训练的。</p>
</div><p>While technology stocks in general have been more volatile since DeepSeek's arrival, none has taken a hit as hard as <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.63%). Investors are panicking that Nvidia's newer chipware may not be as much of a necessity, given DeepSeek's claims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 DeepSeek 出现以来，科技股普遍波动加剧，但没有哪只股票受到的打击像 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.63%) 那么严重。投资者们惊慌失措，担心 Nvidia 的新芯片可能不再那么必要，考虑到 DeepSeek 的声明。</p>
</div><p>Although the uncertainty surrounding Nvidia's future prospects is disorienting, some of the company's biggest partners have been dropping clues as to how DeepSeek is influencing their own AI roadmaps. I'll analyze what these trends are and assess how they might impact Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管围绕 Nvidia 未来前景的不确定性令人困惑，但该公司的几大合作伙伴已经开始透露 DeepSeek 如何影响他们自己的 AI 路线图。我将分析这些趋势，并评估它们可能对 Nvidia 产生的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Examining big tech's AI infrastructure plans</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>审视大型科技公司的 AI 基础设施计划</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia makes its fortune primarily through its compute and networking business, which sells advanced chipsets called graphics processing units (GPUs). GPUs are integral for generative AI applications, and are primarily housed in large data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的财富主要来自其计算和网络业务，该业务销售被称为图形处理单元（GPU）的先进芯片。GPU 对于生成性 AI 应用至关重要，主要存放在大型数据中心中。</p>
</div><p>While DeepSeek claims to have built its AI using Nvidia's old H800 GPUs, it's been difficult to verify how accurate that is. Nevertheless, all of Nvidia's &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peers have reported earnings for the full calendar year 2024, and there is a common thread stitching their broader AI fabric together.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 DeepSeek 声称其 AI 是使用 Nvidia 的旧 H800 GPU 构建的，但验证这一点的准确性一直很困难。尽管如此，Nvidia 的&#34;七大巨头&#34;同行都已报告了 2024 年全年的收益，并且它们的 AI 整体布局之间有一个共同的线索。</p>
</div><p><strong>Microsoft</strong> kicked things off by announcing the company will be spending $80 billion this year on data centers and other AI infrastructure projects. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> followed up with its own aggressive spending plans -- hinting that the company could see capital expenditures (capex) up to $65 billion this year. Lastly, <strong>Alphabet</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong> are projected to spend an estimated $180 billion combined on AI capex this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong> 率先宣布今年将在数据中心和其他 AI 基础设施项目上花费 800 亿美元。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 随后也公布了其激进的支出计划，暗示该公司今年的资本支出（capex）可能高达 650 亿美元。最后，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong> 预计今年在 AI 资本支出上的总支出将达到 1800 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>On the surface, big tech's rising capex plans this year should be seen as a positive thing for Nvidia. However, when Nvidia reports earnings on Feb. 26, there is one thing in particular I think investors need to be laser-focused on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，大型科技公司今年上升的资本支出计划应该被视为对 Nvidia 的积极信号。然而，当 Nvidia 在 2 月 26 日报告收益时，有一件事我认为投资者需要特别关注。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc1ODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEzMTE5ODI1OS0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807582%2Fgettyimages-1131198259-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What should investors be looking for when Nvidia reports earnings?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者在 Nvidia 报告收益时应该关注什么？</h2>
</div><p>Investors should listen carefully to management's commentary as it relates to the spending from big tech I outlined. While Nvidia isn't going to capture all of this spend, investors should still be able to get a glimpse into how much capex the Magnificent Seven will be allocating toward Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该仔细聆听管理层关于我提到的大型科技公司支出的评论。虽然 Nvidia 不会捕获所有这些支出，但投资者仍然应该能够窥见&#34;七大巨头&#34;将分配多少资本支出给 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, the best way to figure this out is to look at Nvidia's financial guidance. If the company's growth rates are accelerating, I'd say this is a good proxy that big tech will be spending heavily on Nvidia's newest chip architectures this year. But on the flip side, if Nvidia's guidance calls for a material deceleration in growth, it could be that its biggest customers are still buying from Nvidia, but doing so in a more protracted way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，了解这一点的最佳方法是查看 Nvidia 的财务指引。如果公司的增长率在加速，我会认为这是大型科技公司今年将重金投入 Nvidia 最新芯片架构的良好指标。但相反，如果 Nvidia 的指引显示增长明显放缓，可能是其最大客户仍在购买 Nvidia 的产品，但购买方式更加缓慢。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock a buy before Feb. 26?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在 2 月 26 日之前，Nvidia 股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>It's rare that I encourage timing an investment. As long-term investors, buying stock on a specific day isn't the most important factor. Rather, it's more important to reassess your conviction in your holdings, and so long as you remain optimistic, using a strategy of dollar-cost averaging over the course of many years is generally a recipe for success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我很少鼓励投资时机的把握。作为长期投资者，在特定日期购买股票并不是最重要的因素。更重要的是重新评估你对持有股票的信心，只要你保持乐观，采用多年分批投资的策略通常是成功的秘诀。</p>
</div><p>This is a rare occasion where I think buying the dip in Nvidia prior to earnings could be a good formula.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个罕见的机会，我认为在收益发布前买入 Nvidia 的下跌可能是一个不错的选择。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0bd820a73e570d12ca27b3d44da3839b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0bd820a73e570d12ca27b3d44da3839b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Considering history suggests that Nvidia stock will indeed rise following its fourth-quarter earnings, combined with big tech's capex plans just for this year, and the share price recovery from the DeepSeek sell-off pictured, I'm cautiously optimistic that Nvidia stock is a lucrative opportunity right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到历史数据显示 Nvidia 股票在第四季度收益发布后确实会上涨，加上大型科技公司今年的资本支出计划，以及 DeepSeek 抛售后的股价回升，我对 Nvidia 股票目前是一个有利可图的机会持谨慎乐观态度。</p>
</div>

Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Just Gave Nvidia Great News. But Does That Make The Stock A Buy Before Feb. 26?

- 中国初创公司 DeepSeek 发布类似 ChatGPT 的 AI 模型，引发市场波动。  
- Nvidia 股价受影响，投资者对其未来前景感到不安。  
- 大型科技公司计划在 AI 基础设施上大幅投资，可能利好 Nvidia。

亚马逊、微软、Alphabet 和 Meta 刚刚给了英伟达好消息。但这是否意味着在 2 月 26 日之前买入该股票是明智之举？