<p>新任首席财务官 Anat Ashkenazi 在科技巨头的第三季度财报电话会议上告诉分析师，预计 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.54%）（GOOGL -0.49%）在 2025 年的资本投资将小幅增加。她在十月底表示：“可能不会像我们在 2023 年和 2024 年之间看到的那样的百分比增长，但会有额外的增加。”</p>
<p>Alphabet 在 2024 年的支出约为 525 亿美元，比 2023 年的 323 亿美元增长了 62.5%。所以我想，相比之下，她对 2025 财年资本支出的 43% 的增长预测仅仅是一个 “额外的增加”。</p>
<p>Alphabet 表示将在 2025 年花费 750 亿美元用于资本支出，其中大部分将用于建设人工智能训练和推理的云基础设施。在 Alphabet 更新预测之前，华尔街分析师预计这一数字仅为 580 亿美元，基于 Ashkenazi 之前的评论。</p>
<p>虽然 Alphabet 在支持人工智能方面投入巨大——这也是有充分理由的——但它在 2024 年在其他方面的支出超过了 690 亿美元，而这也是投资者购买并长期持有其股票的最佳理由之一。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc1ODkvZ29vZ2xlLWFscGhhYmV0LWdldHR5LWltYWdlcy5qcGVnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc1ODkvZ29vZ2xlLWFscGhhYmV0LWdldHR5LWltYWdlcy5qcGVnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>巨额的人工智能预算不容忽视</h2>
<p>Alphabet 并不是唯一一家在今年花费数百亿美元用于人工智能基础设施的大型科技公司。这可能是它感到需要如此大规模支出的一个重要原因。</p>
<p>“对于我们来说，投资不足的风险远远大于投资过度的风险，” 首席执行官 Sundar Pichai 在 Alphabet 的第二季度财报电话会议上表示。这实际上已经在其财务结果中显现出来。</p>
<p>谷歌云部门的收入增长在第四季度减缓至 30%。许多投资者对此感到失望，这也是股价在财报发布后下跌的原因之一。但 Ashkenazi 热衷于指出，目前对谷歌云的需求超过了可用的产能，并且正在努力尽快上线更多产能。这意味着它需要花费更多。</p>
<p>支出的成果应该很快显现，因为谷歌云的增长预计将在 2025 年保持强劲。</p>
<p>重要的是，公司开始在其核心谷歌业务中看到人工智能支出的回报。人工智能概览已扩展到 100 多个国家，每天回答更多的搜索查询，帮助推动谷歌整体搜索流量的增长。它最近在人工智能概览上推出了广告，管理层表示这些广告的变现率与传统搜索广告大致相同。换句话说，谷歌的产品成功地抵御了其他信息发现人工智能工具的威胁，而没有侵蚀其广告收入。</p>
<p>其他人工智能创新，如 Circle to Search 和 Google Lens，进一步增强了高价值产品或购物的搜索。因此，Alphabet 开始在其云平台之外看到其巨额人工智能支出的显著回报。</p>
<p>尽管它在人工智能上的支出远超预期，但投资者仍应关注这对股票的一个更重要因素的影响。</p>
<h2>这是 Alphabet 在 2024 年的最大现金支出</h2>
<p>在 2024 年，Alphabet 在资本支出上花费的金额低于对股东的资本回报。它花费了约 620 亿美元回购自己的股票，另外还花费了 70 亿美元用于分红。</p>
<p>即使在 2025 年计划的 “额外增加” 的资本投资下，Alphabet 很可能再次向股东返还更多资金。这是因为它是一台自由现金流机器。</p>
<p>其 2024 年的自由现金流总额为 728 亿美元。尽管 Alphabet 计划在 2025 年在数据中心及其内部的芯片和网络设备上再花费 220 亿美元，但它仍可能在今年看到自由现金流的改善。</p>
<p>如前所述，随着更多产能上线，谷歌云的收入增长有望重新加速。随着规模的扩大，其运营利润率也显著提升，去年达到了 14%。但更大的公共云平台的运营利润率超过两倍，这表明 Alphabet 在 2025 年可能会从谷歌云获得数十亿美元的运营收入。</p>
<p>进一步的人工智能驱动的搜索改进以及广告购买和创意方面的提升可能有助于推动核心业务的增长，进一步抵消对数据中心增加支出的影响。由于资产负债表上已经有大量现金，Alphabet 很可能在 2025 年再次将其绝大部分自由现金流投入到资本回报计划中。</p>
<h2>为什么这使得 Alphabet 成为值得购买和长期持有的股票</h2>
<p>Alphabet 的股票回购计划规模确保了即使在业务仅有适度改善的情况下，它也能在长期内产生强劲的每股收益增长。因此，尽管其在人工智能上的增加支出可能会在 2025 年及以后对净收入产生压力，因为折旧费用开始影响损益表，但投资者仍应看到每股收益的强劲改善。这种改善将持续到未来，因为 Alphabet 将寻求投资下一个可能代表其业务重大变革的项目。</p>
<p>凭借其核心业务强劲的自由现金流生成，加上云计算业务日益增长的盈利能力，Alphabet 看起来有望在 2025 年及以后增加其资本回报。这使得它成为一只极具股东友好的股票。</p>
<p>此外，考虑到股票的交易价格不到未来 12 个月盈利预期的 21 倍，该股票看起来像是一个便宜的选择。或许值得抓住这个机会，向您的投资组合中增加股票并长期持有。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>Alphabet 计划在 2025 年将资本支出增加到 750 亿美元，主要用于人工智能基础设施，此前在 2024 年大幅上升至 525 亿美元。尽管在人工智能方面进行了大量投资，Alphabet 在 2024 年仍通过回购和分红向股东返还了 620 亿美元。预计该公司将保持强劲的自由现金流，预计为 728 亿美元，并继续增强其 Google Cloud 部门，该部门的需求超过了产能。这一财务策略使 Alphabet 成为一个强劲的长期投资机会</p>

<p>Newly appointed CFO Anat Ashkenazi told analysts to expect a small step-up in <strong>Alphabet's</strong>(GOOG -0.54%)(GOOGL -0.49%) capital investments in 2025 during the tech giant's third-quarter earnings call. &#34;Likely not the same percent step-up that we saw between '23 and '24, but an additional increase,&#34; she said in late October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新任首席财务官 Anat Ashkenazi 在科技巨头的第三季度财报电话会议上告诉分析师，预计 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.54%）（GOOGL -0.49%）在 2025 年的资本投资将小幅增加。她在十月底表示：“可能不会像我们在 2023 年和 2024 年之间看到的那样的百分比增长，但会有额外的增加。”</p>
</div><p>Alphabet ended up spending roughly $52.5 billion in 2024, up 62.5% from the $32.3 billion it spent in 2023. So I guess, by comparison, the 43% increase she forecast for fiscal 2025 capital expenditures is merely an &#34;additional increase.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 在 2024 年的支出约为 525 亿美元，比 2023 年的 323 亿美元增长了 62.5%。所以我想，相比之下，她对 2025 财年资本支出的 43% 的增长预测仅仅是一个 “额外的增加”。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet says it will spend $75 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, most of which will go toward building cloud infrastructure for artificial intelligence training and inference. Prior to Alphabet's updated forecast, Wall Street analysts had expected the figure to be just $58 billion for the year, based on Ashkenazi's previous comments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 表示将在 2025 年花费 750 亿美元用于资本支出，其中大部分将用于建设人工智能训练和推理的云基础设施。在 Alphabet 更新预测之前，华尔街分析师预计这一数字仅为 580 亿美元，基于 Ashkenazi 之前的评论。</p>
</div><p>While Alphabet is spending heavily to support artificial intelligence -- and with good reason -- it spent more than $69 billion on something else entirely in 2024, and it's one of the best reasons for investors to buy shares and hold them forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Alphabet 在支持人工智能方面投入巨大——这也是有充分理由的——但它在 2024 年在其他方面的支出超过了 690 亿美元，而这也是投资者购买并长期持有其股票的最佳理由之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc1ODkvZ29vZ2xlLWFscGhhYmV0LWdldHR5LWltYWdlcy5qcGVnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807589%2Fgoogle-alphabet-getty-images.jpeg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The massive AI budget can't be ignored</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨额的人工智能预算不容忽视</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet is far from the only big tech company spending tens of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure this year. And that may be a big reason why it feels the need to spend so much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 并不是唯一一家在今年花费数百亿美元用于人工智能基础设施的大型科技公司。这可能是它感到需要如此大规模支出的一个重要原因。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting for us here,&#34; CEO Sundar Pichai said during Alphabet's second-quarter earnings call in July. That has actually already shown up in its financial results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于我们来说，投资不足的风险远远大于投资过度的风险，” 首席执行官 Sundar Pichai 在 Alphabet 的第二季度财报电话会议上表示。这实际上已经在其财务结果中显现出来。</p>
</div><p>The Google Cloud segment's revenue growth decelerated to 30% in the fourth quarter. Many investors were disappointed with that, which is one of the reasons the stock price fell after the earnings report. But Ashkenazi was keen to point out that demand for Google Cloud is outstripping available capacity at the moment and it's working to bring more capacity online as quickly as possible. That means it needs to spend more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌云部门的收入增长在第四季度减缓至 30%。许多投资者对此感到失望，这也是股价在财报发布后下跌的原因之一。但 Ashkenazi 热衷于指出，目前对谷歌云的需求超过了可用的产能，并且正在努力尽快上线更多产能。这意味着它需要花费更多。</p>
</div><p>The fruits of the spending should appear in short order, as Google Cloud growth should remain strong throughout 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支出的成果应该很快显现，因为谷歌云的增长预计将在 2025 年保持强劲。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the company is starting to see returns on its AI spending within its core Google operations as well. AI Overviews, which has expanded to over 100 countries and answers more search queries every day, has helped grow overall search traffic on Google. It recently rolled out ads on AI Overviews, and management says the monetization rate is approximately the same for those ads as for traditional search ads. In other words, Google's product is successfully staving off the threat of other AI tools for information discovery without cannibalizing its ad revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，公司开始在其核心谷歌业务中看到人工智能支出的回报。人工智能概览已扩展到 100 多个国家，每天回答更多的搜索查询，帮助推动谷歌整体搜索流量的增长。它最近在人工智能概览上推出了广告，管理层表示这些广告的变现率与传统搜索广告大致相同。换句话说，谷歌的产品成功地抵御了其他信息发现人工智能工具的威胁，而没有侵蚀其广告收入。</p>
</div><p>Other AI innovations like Circle to Search and Google Lens have further bolstered high-value searches for products or shopping. So, Alphabet is starting to see meaningful returns on its massive AI spending outside of its cloud platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他人工智能创新，如 Circle to Search 和 Google Lens，进一步增强了高价值产品或购物的搜索。因此，Alphabet 开始在其云平台之外看到其巨额人工智能支出的显著回报。</p>
</div><p>Even as it spends much more than was anticipated on AI, though, investors should look at how it impacts an even more important factor for the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管它在人工智能上的支出远超预期，但投资者仍应关注这对股票的一个更重要因素的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Here's Alphabet's biggest cash expense from 2024</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这是 Alphabet 在 2024 年的最大现金支出</h2>
</div><p>In 2024, the one thing Alphabet spent more on than capital expenditures was capital returns to shareholders. It spent approximately $62 billion buying back shares of its own stock and another $7 billion on dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年，Alphabet 在资本支出上花费的金额低于对股东的资本回报。它花费了约 620 亿美元回购自己的股票，另外还花费了 70 亿美元用于分红。</p>
</div><p>Even with the &#34;additional increase&#34; in capital investments planned for 2025, there's a good chance Alphabet could return even more money than that to shareholders again. That's because it's a free cash flow machine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在 2025 年计划的 “额外增加” 的资本投资下，Alphabet 很可能再次向股东返还更多资金。这是因为它是一台自由现金流机器。</p>
</div><p>Its 2024 free cash flow totaled $72.8 billion. And while Alphabet is planning to spend $22 billion more on data centers and the chips and networking equipment that go inside them in 2025, it could still see an improvement in free cash flow this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其 2024 年的自由现金流总额为 728 亿美元。尽管 Alphabet 计划在 2025 年在数据中心及其内部的芯片和网络设备上再花费 220 亿美元，但它仍可能在今年看到自由现金流的改善。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned, Google Cloud's revenue growth is poised to reaccelerate as more capacity comes online. As it scales, it has seen strong operating margin expansion, reaching 14% last year. But larger public cloud platforms have operating margins more than twice as big, indicating Alphabet could see billions more in operating income from Google Cloud in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，随着更多产能上线，谷歌云的收入增长有望重新加速。随着规模的扩大，其运营利润率也显著提升，去年达到了 14%。但更大的公共云平台的运营利润率超过两倍，这表明 Alphabet 在 2025 年可能会从谷歌云获得数十亿美元的运营收入。</p>
</div><p>Further AI-powered improvements in search as well as in ad-buying and creatives could help grow the core business, further offsetting the increased spending on data centers. With plenty of cash already on the balance sheet, it's likely Alphabet will once again route the vast majority of its free cash flow into its capital return program in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步的人工智能驱动的搜索改进以及广告购买和创意方面的提升可能有助于推动核心业务的增长，进一步抵消对数据中心增加支出的影响。由于资产负债表上已经有大量现金，Alphabet 很可能在 2025 年再次将其绝大部分自由现金流投入到资本回报计划中。</p>
</div><h2>Why that makes Alphabet a stock to buy and hold forever</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这使得 Alphabet 成为值得购买和长期持有的股票</h2>
</div><p>The size of Alphabet's share-repurchase program ensures that it will be able to generate strong earnings-per-share growth over the long run even if there are only modest improvements in the business. So while its increased spending on artificial intelligence could weigh on net income in 2025 and beyond as depreciation expenses start hitting the income statement, investors should still see strong improvements in earnings per share. And that extends well into the future, as Alphabet will look to invest in the next thing that could represent a step-change in its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的股票回购计划规模确保了即使在业务仅有适度改善的情况下，它也能在长期内产生强劲的每股收益增长。因此，尽管其在人工智能上的增加支出可能会在 2025 年及以后对净收入产生压力，因为折旧费用开始影响损益表，但投资者仍应看到每股收益的强劲改善。这种改善将持续到未来，因为 Alphabet 将寻求投资下一个可能代表其业务重大变革的项目。</p>
</div><p>With the strong free-cash-flow generation from its core operations, plus the growing profitability of its cloud computing business, Alphabet looks poised to increase its capital returns in 2025 and beyond. And that makes it an extremely shareholder-friendly stock to own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凭借其核心业务强劲的自由现金流生成，加上云计算业务日益增长的盈利能力，Alphabet 看起来有望在 2025 年及以后增加其资本回报。这使得它成为一只极具股东友好的股票。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, with shares trading at less than 21 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, the stock looks like a bargain. It might be worth taking this opportunity to add shares to your portfolio and hold onto them forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，考虑到股票的交易价格不到未来 12 个月盈利预期的 21 倍，该股票看起来像是一个便宜的选择。或许值得抓住这个机会，向您的投资组合中增加股票并长期持有。</p>
</div>

Alphabet Will Spend $75 Billion on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in 2025, but It Spent $69 Billion on Something Else Entirely in 2024 That Makes It Worth Buying and Holding Forever

- Alphabet 预计 2025 年资本支出将达 750 亿美元，增长 43%。  
- 主要用于人工智能训练和推理的云基础设施建设。  
- 2024 年自由现金流为 728 亿美元，可能继续回购股票。  

Alphabet 将在 2025 年花费 750 亿美元用于人工智能（AI），但它在 2024 年花费了 690 亿美元在完全不同的事情上，这使得它值得长期买入和持有