<p>在 2024 年以股价的迅猛上涨结束后，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -2.75%）自新年开始以来一直在下滑。该公司在 1 月 29 日公布了财报，自那以来股价已下跌了多达 15%。截至 2025 年 2 月 14 日，股价在 2025 年已产生了 12% 的负回报。</p>
<p>虽然特斯拉核心电动车（EV）部门的销售确实在放缓，但我认为还有一个更微妙的原因导致了此次抛售。接下来，我将探讨我认为导致股价下跌的根本原因，并说明现在是买入的好机会。</p>
<h2>埃隆在华盛顿是否过于安逸？</h2>
<p>下图展示了特斯拉股价从 10 月 1 日到 2 月 14 日的波动情况。你注意到了什么吗？</p>
<p>从 11 月初开始，特斯拉的股票经历了一次史诗般的牛市，推动其在 2024 年结束时创下新高。推动股价在 2024 年最后几周上涨的一个因素是唐纳德·特朗普在总统选举中的胜利。埃隆·马斯克是当时候选人特朗普的坚定支持者，许多投资者简单地认为他与总统的关系将对特斯拉的未来产生积极影响，尤其是在公司自驾车的雄心方面，可能会减少监管障碍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>特朗普总统在就职后成立了一个名为政府效率部（DOGE，简称）的组织，以识别联邦预算中的过度支出。他邀请马斯克来领导这一工作。</p>
<p>在过去一个月里，马斯克花了很多时间在白宫处理 DOGE 的事务，这让一些投资者质疑他是否在失去对特斯拉这一主要优先事项的关注。在我看来，特斯拉股价的下跌与公司第四季度财报的乏善可陈关系不大，更多的是与首席执行官在华盛顿的时间有关。</p>
<h2>为什么这次抛售被夸大了</h2>
<p>从表面上看，我可以理解投资者对马斯克将过多时间分配给 DOGE 而不是全心投入特斯拉的担忧。然而，认为他可能分心的论点有几个缺陷。</p>
<p>首先，他是一位连续创业者，参与了多家成功企业的运营。除了特斯拉，他还是 SpaceX 的首席执行官，并创办了多家价值十亿美元的初创公司，包括正在开发可植入人脑芯片的 Neuralink；隧道建设公司 The Boring Company；以及人工智能专家 xAI。他还拥有社交媒体平台 X（前身为 Twitter），并担任其执行主席。</p>
<p>所以马斯克本身就是一个忙碌的人，而 DOGE 并没有改变这一点。多年来，他一直参与多个复杂的业务，涵盖太空探索、物流和人工智能，同时还在特斯拉掌舵。</p>
<p>我对认为他在华盛顿的时间可能是分心的另一个问题是，投资者似乎在两个月前非常喜欢他与特朗普的关系（如上图所示）。现在因为担心马斯克在华盛顿过于安逸而抛售特斯拉股票在某种程度上似乎是矛盾的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc4OTYvcGNiLXRyYWNlcy1vdmVyLWNhcGl0b2wtYnVpbGRpbmctMTk2MDk4NjQwMC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc4OTYvcGNiLXRyYWNlcy1vdmVyLWNhcGl0b2wtYnVpbGRpbmctMTk2MDk4NjQwMC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>现在是买入特斯拉股票的好时机吗？</h2>
<p>特斯拉的股票一直在传统估值指标的范围之外交易。近年来，该公司的销售和利润加速增长，与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉的股票交易在一个完全不同的宇宙中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PS 比率，数据来源于 YCharts；PS = 市值与销售额比率。</p>
<p>我过去曾提出，特斯拉实际上是一家技术公司，恰好销售汽车。它正在大力投资于自主驾驶车队，并将其人工智能（AI）预算的一部分投入到 Optimus 人形机器人中，因此马斯克对特斯拉的愿景远不止于电动车。</p>
<p>基于这些原因，我一直认为，仅仅依靠估值指标来驱动对特斯拉的投资决策是有些冒险的。在我看来，当前的抛售与公司的基本面并不相符。</p>
<p>公司的核心业务确实需要新的推动，但我认为在未来几年内这是完全可能的，尤其是考虑到他与特朗普总统的关系。目前，我不会过于担心马斯克对 DOGE 的关注。如果你是一位长期投资者，我认为现在是利用特斯拉低股价的好机会。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票自 1 月 29 日的财报发布以来下跌了 15%，2025 年的负回报率为 12%。此次抛售被归因于人们对首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在政府效率部（DOGE）角色上的关注，而非特斯拉。然而，认为马斯克分心的观点被认为是有缺陷的，因为他有管理多个成功企业的历史。作者认为，目前的抛售与特斯拉的基本面脱节，并建议长期投资者现在是买入的好时机</p>

<p>After finishing 2024 with a meteoric rise in its share price, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -2.75%) has been sliding since the start of the new year. The company reported earnings on Jan. 29, and the stock has declined by as much as 15% since. So far, in 2025, the stock has generated a negative return of 12% (as of market close on Feb. 14).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年以股价的迅猛上涨结束后，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -2.75%）自新年开始以来一直在下滑。该公司在 1 月 29 日公布了财报，自那以来股价已下跌了多达 15%。截至 2025 年 2 月 14 日，股价在 2025 年已产生了 12% 的负回报。</p>
</div><p>While it is true that sales in Tesla's core electric vehicle (EV) segment are decelerating, I think there is a more subtle reason for the sell-off. Below, I'm going to explore what I see as the root of the shares' decline and make the case for why now is a good opportunity to buy the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特斯拉核心电动车（EV）部门的销售确实在放缓，但我认为还有一个更微妙的原因导致了此次抛售。接下来，我将探讨我认为导致股价下跌的根本原因，并说明现在是买入的好机会。</p>
</div><h2>Is Elon getting too comfy in Washington?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>埃隆在华盛顿是否过于安逸？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates the fluctuations in Tesla's share price from Oct. 1 through Feb. 14. Notice anything?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图展示了特斯拉股价从 10 月 1 日到 2 月 14 日的波动情况。你注意到了什么吗？</p>
</div><p>Starting in early November, Tesla stock went on an epically bullish ride that propelled it to new all-time highs just as 2024 came to a close. One of the tailwinds that fueled the stock during the final weeks of 2024 was Donald Trump's win in the presidential election. Elon Musk was a big supporter of then-candidate Trump, and many investors simply assumed that his relationship with the president would bode well for Tesla's future -- especially as it relates to any regulatory hurdles for the company's ambitions with self-driving vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 11 月初开始，特斯拉的股票经历了一次史诗般的牛市，推动其在 2024 年结束时创下新高。推动股价在 2024 年最后几周上涨的一个因素是唐纳德·特朗普在总统选举中的胜利。埃隆·马斯克是当时候选人特朗普的坚定支持者，许多投资者简单地认为他与总统的关系将对特斯拉的未来产生积极影响，尤其是在公司自驾车的雄心方面，可能会减少监管障碍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Following his inauguration, President Trump created a group called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, for short) to identify excess spending in the federal budget. And he tapped Musk to lead this effort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统在就职后成立了一个名为政府效率部（DOGE，简称）的组织，以识别联邦预算中的过度支出。他邀请马斯克来领导这一工作。</p>
</div><p>Over the last month, Musk has spent a lot of time at the White House working on the DOGE effort, leading some investors to question if he's losing focus on what should be his main priority, Tesla. In my opinion, the sell-off in Tesla stock has less to do with the company's uninspiring fourth-quarter earnings report and more to do with the CEO's time in Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一个月里，马斯克花了很多时间在白宫处理 DOGE 的事务，这让一些投资者质疑他是否在失去对特斯拉这一主要优先事项的关注。在我看来，特斯拉股价的下跌与公司第四季度财报的乏善可陈关系不大，更多的是与首席执行官在华盛顿的时间有关。</p>
</div><h2>Why this sell-off is overblown</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这次抛售被夸大了</h2>
</div><p>On the surface, I can understand if investors are wary that Musk is allocating too much of his time to DOGE as opposed to dedicating every moment to Tesla. However, the argument that he may be distracted is flawed for a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，我可以理解投资者对马斯克将过多时间分配给 DOGE 而不是全心投入特斯拉的担忧。然而，认为他可能分心的论点有几个缺陷。</p>
</div><p>First, he is a serial entrepreneur who has been at the center of a number of successful businesses. Beyond Tesla, he is the CEO of SpaceX and founded a number of billion-dollar start-ups including Neuralink, which is developing chips that are implantable in human brains; The Boring Company, a tunnel builder; and xAI, an artificial intelligence specialist. He also owns social media platform X (formerly Twitter) and is its executive chairman.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，他是一位连续创业者，参与了多家成功企业的运营。除了特斯拉，他还是 SpaceX 的首席执行官，并创办了多家价值十亿美元的初创公司，包括正在开发可植入人脑芯片的 Neuralink；隧道建设公司 The Boring Company；以及人工智能专家 xAI。他还拥有社交媒体平台 X（前身为 Twitter），并担任其执行主席。</p>
</div><p>So Musk is a busy person in the first place, and DOGE doesn't really change that. For years, he has been involved with a number of sophisticated businesses spanning space exploration, logistics, and AI -- all while running the show at Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以马斯克本身就是一个忙碌的人，而 DOGE 并没有改变这一点。多年来，他一直参与多个复杂的业务，涵盖太空探索、物流和人工智能，同时还在特斯拉掌舵。</p>
</div><p>My other issue with the view that his time in Washington may be a distraction is that investors seemed to love his relationship with Trump just two months ago (as depicted in the chart above). Selling Tesla stock now because you're nervous that Musk may be getting too cozy in Washington seems contradictory in some ways.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对认为他在华盛顿的时间可能是分心的另一个问题是，投资者似乎在两个月前非常喜欢他与特朗普的关系（如上图所示）。现在因为担心马斯克在华盛顿过于安逸而抛售特斯拉股票在某种程度上似乎是矛盾的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc4OTYvcGNiLXRyYWNlcy1vdmVyLWNhcGl0b2wtYnVpbGRpbmctMTk2MDk4NjQwMC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807896%2Fpcb-traces-over-capitol-building-1960986400.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is now a good time to buy Tesla stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是买入特斯拉股票的好时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is a stock that has always traded out of the bounds of traditional valuation metrics. The company has accelerated sales and profits in recent years, and the stock trades in an entirely different universe when compared to other automakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的股票一直在传统估值指标的范围之外交易。近年来，该公司的销售和利润加速增长，与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉的股票交易在一个完全不同的宇宙中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PS ratio, data by YCharts; PS = price to sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA PS 比率，数据来源于 YCharts；PS = 市值与销售额比率。</p>
</div><p>I've made the case in the past that Tesla is really a technology company that happens to sell cars. It's investing heavily in an autonomous vehicle fleet as well as dedicating a good portion of its artificial intelligence (AI) budget to Optimus humanoid robots, so Musk has a vision for Tesla well beyond EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我过去曾提出，特斯拉实际上是一家技术公司，恰好销售汽车。它正在大力投资于自主驾驶车队，并将其人工智能（AI）预算的一部分投入到 Optimus 人形机器人中，因此马斯克对特斯拉的愿景远不止于电动车。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I've always thought that it's a little dicey driving your investment decision in Tesla based purely on valuation metrics. To me, the ongoing sell-off is disconnected from the fundamentals of the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这些原因，我一直认为，仅仅依靠估值指标来驱动对特斯拉的投资决策是有些冒险的。在我看来，当前的抛售与公司的基本面并不相符。</p>
</div><p>The core operations of the company do need a new jump-start, but I think this is quite possible over the next several years, especially given his relationship with President Trump. For now, I wouldn't worry too much about Musk's focus on DOGE. If you're an investor with a long-term horizon, I think now is a good opportunity to take advantage of Tesla's low stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的核心业务确实需要新的推动，但我认为在未来几年内这是完全可能的，尤其是考虑到他与特朗普总统的关系。目前，我不会过于担心马斯克对 DOGE 的关注。如果你是一位长期投资者，我认为现在是利用特斯拉低股价的好机会。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Is Spiraling. Here's Why This Sell-Off Is Different

- 特斯拉股价自 2024 年大幅上涨后，2025 年初下滑 15%。  
- 投资者对马斯克在华盛顿的时间分配表示担忧，认为可能影响特斯拉。  
- 文章认为当前是买入特斯拉股票的良机，因其基本面仍具潜力。

特斯拉股票正在急剧下跌。这次抛售为何与众不同