<p>过去几年由于人工智能（AI）的最新进展，技术领域发生了范式转变。快速浏览一下全球市值最高公司的名单，可以帮助说明这一转变。在前十名中，有八家公司是全球最知名的科技供应商，而它们与人工智能都有着深厚的联系。</p>
<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia，NVDA 0.63%）的图形处理单元（GPU）提供了使生成式人工智能成为可能的计算能力，并借助加速的采用浪潮达到了新的高度。其市值为 3.4 万亿美元，仅次于 <strong>苹果</strong>（Apple），后者的市值接近 3.7 万亿美元（截至本文撰写时）。</p>
<p>英伟达的未来看起来光明，因为公司的最大客户已承诺在 2025 年投资总计 3150 亿美元的资本支出。这笔支出的绝大部分将用于支持人工智能所需的服务器和数据中心。作为数据中心 GPU 的领先供应商，英伟达将占据这笔支出的大部分。</p>
<p>尽管其股票在过去五年中上涨了 1780%，但英伟达在未来五年内重复这一表现的可能性不大，一些投资者正在展望人工智能采用的下一个阶段。一家在以人工智能为中心的未来中有多种获胜方式的公司是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（Amazon，AMZN -1.65%）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDg0MzcvYS1oYW5kLXNob3dpbmctYS1zcGFyay1hbmQtdHdvLWFpLWljb25zLWV4Y2hhbmdpbmctaW5mb3JtYXRpb24uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDg0MzcvYS1oYW5kLXNob3dpbmctYS1zcGFyay1hbmQtdHdvLWFpLWljb25zLWV4Y2hhbmdpbmctaW5mb3JtYXRpb24uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>人工智能是实现目标的手段</h2>
<p>许多公司仍在摸索如何从人工智能中获利，但亚马逊已经独树一帜。这家在线零售商长期以来一直利用人工智能来增强和改善其现有业务。然而，亚马逊才刚刚开始利用人工智能所代表的机会。</p>
<p>首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）表示，人工智能驱动的机器人领域的发展 “简化了存储、拣选、包装和运输流程。” 这些进展帮助将履行处理时间减少了多达 25%。在 2024 年，履行成本占亚马逊运营费用的 17% 以上，因此这些改进将有助于扩大公司的利润并提升盈利能力。</p>
<p>我们不能忘记亚马逊网络服务（AWS），这是公司的云基础设施平台。AWS 长期以来为亚马逊创造了大部分利润，去年占其运营收入的 58%。公司一直在努力保持其行业领先的云地位。</p>
<p>为此，亚马逊推出了自家研发的 Trainium 和 Inferentia 人工智能处理器，为云客户提供更高的性价比。AWS 并没有止步于此。除了向客户提供所有最受欢迎的人工智能模型外，它还提供亚马逊 SageMaker AI，帮助开发者构建、训练和部署自己的人工智能模型。贾西最近指出（强调为我所加），“在过去 18 个月中，AWS 发布的机器学习和生成式人工智能功能几乎是其他领先云提供商总和的两倍。”</p>
<p>亚马逊还在其电子商务网站、Prime Music 和 Freevee 流媒体服务中使用人工智能来指导定向广告。此外，广告现在已成为亚马逊 Prime Video 的标准配置。观众可以选择每月支付 3 美元或每年支付 36 美元以跳过广告。这一被动观众群体使亚马逊在广告商面前拥有越来越大的杠杆，这也是其广告部门在过去一年中增长最快的业务原因。</p>
<h2>亚马逊如何超越英伟达</h2>
<p>目前，英伟达的市值为 3.4 万亿美元，而亚马逊为 2.4 万亿美元。从数学上讲，亚马逊的股价需要上涨 42% 才能超过英伟达。或者，英伟达的股价需要下跌 30%。现实情况并没有那么简单，因为这两只股票的价格都不会静止不变。</p>
<p>华尔街预测，亚马逊将在 2025 年实现 6990 亿美元的收入，使其前瞻市盈率（P/S）约为 3.4。如果其市盈率保持不变，亚马逊需要将收入增长到每年约 9900 亿美元，以支持 3.4 万亿美元的市值。假设其当前的增长率为 10%，亚马逊可能在 2029 年中期达到这一门槛。即使是每年 7% 的温和增长，到 2030 年也能实现这一目标。</p>
<p>自人工智能出现以来，英伟达实现了显著增长。事实上，在过去三年中，其股价上涨了 489%（截至本文撰写时）。公司受益于前所未有的数据中心建设，这需要大量其以人工智能为中心的芯片。</p>
<p>然而，市场给予的，市场也可以收回。在过去一年中，英伟达的股票曾三次下跌 20% 至 25%，原因是有报道称其下一代人工智能芯片面临挑战，以及对其处理器需求可能下降的潜在风险。如果需求真的下降，投资者将重新调整预期，并相应调整英伟达的估值及其股价。</p>
<p>别误解我的意思。我是个坚定的英伟达支持者，这只股票是我第二大个人持仓，但在五年内可能会发生很多事情。我相信，亚马逊在数字零售、云计算、数字广告以及其人工智能产品扩展的结合，可能足以在 2030 年前将其股价推过英伟达。</p>
<p>然而，尽管其卓越的业绩和多元化的增长机会，亚马逊的股票目前仅以明年收益的 35 倍出售——对于一家有如此多获胜方式的公司来说，这是一个合理的估值。</p>

亚马逊

<p>这篇文章讨论了亚马逊（AMZN）在未来五年内超越英伟达（NVDA）市值的潜力，这一趋势受到人工智能（AI）进步的推动。尽管英伟达目前以 3.4 万亿美元的市值领先，但亚马逊在其运营和云服务中战略性地利用 AI，使其具备了显著增长的潜力。分析师预测，到 2029 年，亚马逊的收入将增加到约 9900 亿美元，这可能使其实现类似的市值。文章还强调了英伟达面临的挑战，包括股票波动性和 AI 领域的竞争</p>

<p>The past few years have marked a paradigm shift in technology thanks to recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI). A quick look at the list of the world's most valuable companies by market cap helps to illustrate the shift. Eight of the top 10 are among the world's most recognized purveyors of technology -- and each of them has deep ties to AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年由于人工智能（AI）的最新进展，技术领域发生了范式转变。快速浏览一下全球市值最高公司的名单，可以帮助说明这一转变。在前十名中，有八家公司是全球最知名的科技供应商，而它们与人工智能都有着深厚的联系。</p>
</div><p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 0.63%) graphics processing units (GPUs) supply the computational horsepower that makes generative AI possible and has ridden the accelerating wave of adoption to new heights. With a market cap of $3.4 trillion, its value is exceeded only by <strong>Apple</strong> at nearly $3.7 trillion (as of this writing).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia，NVDA 0.63%）的图形处理单元（GPU）提供了使生成式人工智能成为可能的计算能力，并借助加速的采用浪潮达到了新的高度。其市值为 3.4 万亿美元，仅次于 <strong>苹果</strong>（Apple），后者的市值接近 3.7 万亿美元（截至本文撰写时）。</p>
</div><p>The future looks bright for Nvidia, as the company's largest customers have committed to invest a combined $315 billion in capital expenditures in 2025. The vast majority of that spending is allocated to the servers and data centers needed to support AI. As the leading provider of data center GPUs, Nvidia will capture a large portion of that spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的未来看起来光明，因为公司的最大客户已承诺在 2025 年投资总计 3150 亿美元的资本支出。这笔支出的绝大部分将用于支持人工智能所需的服务器和数据中心。作为数据中心 GPU 的领先供应商，英伟达将占据这笔支出的大部分。</p>
</div><p>Despite its stock gaining 1,780% over the past five years, it's unlikely Nvidia will be able to repeat its performance over the next half decade, and some investors are looking ahead to the next stage of AI adoption. One company that has multiple ways to win in an AI-centric future is <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.65%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其股票在过去五年中上涨了 1780%，但英伟达在未来五年内重复这一表现的可能性不大，一些投资者正在展望人工智能采用的下一个阶段。一家在以人工智能为中心的未来中有多种获胜方式的公司是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（Amazon，AMZN -1.65%）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDg0MzcvYS1oYW5kLXNob3dpbmctYS1zcGFyay1hbmQtdHdvLWFpLWljb25zLWV4Y2hhbmdpbmctaW5mb3JtYXRpb24uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F808437%2Fa-hand-showing-a-spark-and-two-ai-icons-exchanging-information.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AI is a means to an end</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能是实现目标的手段</h2>
</div><p>Many companies are still figuring out how best to profit from AI, but Amazon is already in a league of its own. The online retailer has long used AI to enhance and improve its existing businesses. Yet Amazon has only just begun to exploit the opportunity represented by AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多公司仍在摸索如何从人工智能中获利，但亚马逊已经独树一帜。这家在线零售商长期以来一直利用人工智能来增强和改善其现有业务。然而，亚马逊才刚刚开始利用人工智能所代表的机会。</p>
</div><p>CEO Andy Jassy said that developments in the field of AI-powered robotics &#34;simplify stowing, picking, packing, and shipping processes.&#34; These advances have helped reduce fulfillment processing times by up to 25%. Fulfillment costs accounted for more than 17% of Amazon's operating expenses in 2024, so these improvements will help expand the company's bottom line and boost profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）表示，人工智能驱动的机器人领域的发展 “简化了存储、拣选、包装和运输流程。” 这些进展帮助将履行处理时间减少了多达 25%。在 2024 年，履行成本占亚马逊运营费用的 17% 以上，因此这些改进将有助于扩大公司的利润并提升盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Let's not forget Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company's cloud infrastructure platform. AWS has long generated the lion's share of Amazon's profits, accounting for 58% of its operating income last year. The company has worked diligently to maintain its industry-leading cloud position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们不能忘记亚马逊网络服务（AWS），这是公司的云基础设施平台。AWS 长期以来为亚马逊创造了大部分利润，去年占其运营收入的 58%。公司一直在努力保持其行业领先的云地位。</p>
</div><p>To that end, Amazon has introduced its home-grown Trainium and Inferentia AI processors, which offer cloud customers more bang for the buck. AWS isn't stopping there. In addition to offering customers all of the most in-demand AI models, it offers Amazon SageMaker AI, which helps developers build, train, and deploy their own AI models. Jassy recently noted (emphasis mine) that &#34;In the past 18 months, AWS has released nearly twice as many machine learning and generative AI features as the other leading cloud providers <em>combined</em>.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为此，亚马逊推出了自家研发的 Trainium 和 Inferentia 人工智能处理器，为云客户提供更高的性价比。AWS 并没有止步于此。除了向客户提供所有最受欢迎的人工智能模型外，它还提供亚马逊 SageMaker AI，帮助开发者构建、训练和部署自己的人工智能模型。贾西最近指出（强调为我所加），“在过去 18 个月中，AWS 发布的机器学习和生成式人工智能功能几乎是其他领先云提供商总和的两倍。”</p>
</div><p>Amazon is also using AI to inform the targeted advertising that appears on its e-commerce site, within Prime Music, and on its Freevee streaming service. Furthermore, advertising is now standard for Amazon Prime Video. Viewers can opt out of the ads for $3 per month or $36 per year. This captive audience gives Amazon growing leverage with advertisers, which is why its advertising segment has been its fastest growing business over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊还在其电子商务网站、Prime Music 和 Freevee 流媒体服务中使用人工智能来指导定向广告。此外，广告现在已成为亚马逊 Prime Video 的标准配置。观众可以选择每月支付 3 美元或每年支付 36 美元以跳过广告。这一被动观众群体使亚马逊在广告商面前拥有越来越大的杠杆，这也是其广告部门在过去一年中增长最快的业务原因。</p>
</div><h2>How Amazon vaults past Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊如何超越英伟达</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia currently sports a market cap of $3.4 trillion, compared to $2.4 trillion for Amazon. Mathematically speaking, it would take a stock price increase of 42% for Amazon to surpass Nvidia. Alternatively, it would take a stock price decline of 30% for Nvidia. The reality isn't as simple as either of these, as neither stock price will be static.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英伟达的市值为 3.4 万亿美元，而亚马逊为 2.4 万亿美元。从数学上讲，亚马逊的股价需要上涨 42% 才能超过英伟达。或者，英伟达的股价需要下跌 30%。现实情况并没有那么简单，因为这两只股票的价格都不会静止不变。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is forecasting that Amazon will generate revenue of $699 billion in 2025, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 3.4. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Amazon would have to grow its revenue to roughly $990 billion annually to support a $3.4 trillion market cap. Assuming it maintains its current growth rate of 10%, Amazon could cross that threshold by mid-2029. Even more modest growth of 7% annually would still achieve that goal by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街预测，亚马逊将在 2025 年实现 6990 亿美元的收入，使其前瞻市盈率（P/S）约为 3.4。如果其市盈率保持不变，亚马逊需要将收入增长到每年约 9900 亿美元，以支持 3.4 万亿美元的市值。假设其当前的增长率为 10%，亚马逊可能在 2029 年中期达到这一门槛。即使是每年 7% 的温和增长，到 2030 年也能实现这一目标。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has generated remarkable growth since the advent of AI. In fact, over the past three years, its stock price has gained 489% (as of this writing). The company has benefited from an unprecedented data center buildout, which requires a vast number of its AI-centric chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自人工智能出现以来，英伟达实现了显著增长。事实上，在过去三年中，其股价上涨了 489%（截至本文撰写时）。公司受益于前所未有的数据中心建设，这需要大量其以人工智能为中心的芯片。</p>
</div><p>Yet what the market gives, the market can take away. Three times over the past year alone, Nvidia stock has fallen between 20% and 25%, driven by reports of challenges with its next-generation AI chips and the <em>potential</em> for sinking demand for its processors. If there's an actual decline in demand, investors would reset their expectations and adjust Nvidia's multiple -- and its stock price -- accordingly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市场给予的，市场也可以收回。在过去一年中，英伟达的股票曾三次下跌 20% 至 25%，原因是有报道称其下一代人工智能芯片面临挑战，以及对其处理器需求可能下降的潜在风险。如果需求真的下降，投资者将重新调整预期，并相应调整英伟达的估值及其股价。</p>
</div><p>Don't get me wrong. I'm a died-in-the-wool Nvidia bull, and the stock is my second largest individual holding, but a lot can happen in five years. I believe it's entirely possible that Amazon's combination of digital retail, cloud computing, digital advertising -- and the expansion of its AI offerings -- could be enough to propel the stock past Nvidia by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>别误解我的意思。我是个坚定的英伟达支持者，这只股票是我第二大个人持仓，但在五年内可能会发生很多事情。我相信，亚马逊在数字零售、云计算、数字广告以及其人工智能产品扩展的结合，可能足以在 2030 年前将其股价推过英伟达。</p>
</div><p>Yet despite its remarkable track record and multipronged growth opportunity, Amazon stock is selling for just 35 times next year's earnings -- a reasonable valuation for a company with so many ways to win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管其卓越的业绩和多元化的增长机会，亚马逊的股票目前仅以明年收益的 35 倍出售——对于一家有如此多获胜方式的公司来说，这是一个合理的估值。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia 5 Years From Now

- 过去几年，人工智能的进步推动了技术的范式转变。  
- Nvidia 和 Amazon 在 AI 领域的投资和发展各具优势。  
- 预计到 2030 年，Amazon 的市值可能超过 Nvidia。

预测：5 年后将比英伟达更有价值的一只人工智能（AI）股票