<p>很少有投资者能与沃伦·巴菲特相提并论，他无疑是有史以来最伟大的投资者之一。但亿万富翁斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒就是其中之一。德鲁肯米勒曾担任乔治·索罗斯的基金经理，索罗斯也是另一位传奇投资者，他从未出现过亏损，并在数十年的投资中取得了令人瞩目的回报。如今，德鲁肯米勒仍通过自己的基金——杜克斯家族办公室进行投资。所有管理资产至少为 1 亿美元的基金必须在每个日历季度结束后的 45 天内提交 13F 表格，最近一次是在 2024 年 2 月 14 日的第四季度。13F 表格披露了基金在每个季度末持有的股票。在第四季度，杜克斯披露退出了对 <strong>博通</strong>(AVGO -0.87%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.53%) 的持仓，而转而增持了这三只 “七大奇迹” 股票。</p>
<h2>出售博通和微软</h2>
<p>根据杜克斯的 13F 表格，该基金出售了近 240,000 股博通和近 43,100 股微软。博通在 2024 年表现出色，股价上涨近 108%，而微软的表现逊色于大盘，仅上涨了 12%。</p>
<p>德鲁肯米勒自 2023 年以来一直在博通之间进出。他在 2023 年第三季度购买了该公司的新股份，然后在下一个季度出售。他在 2024 年的第三和第四季度重复了这一趋势。德鲁肯米勒在博通的交易似乎表现不错，出售时的平均价格高于购买时的价格，基于他的平均购买和销售价格，收益在 9% 到 16% 之间。</p>
<p>博通凭借其为公司定制芯片的能力吸引了市场，这些芯片可用于实施特定的人工智能（AI）策略。例如，博通的客户之一是 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>。两者合作开发了 Meta 训练和推理加速器芯片。Meta 计划在 AI 技术上投入数千亿美元。许多分析师和投资者也认为博通与 OpenAI 建立了合作关系。</p>
<p>德鲁肯米勒在过去十多年里一直在投资和交易微软，自 2014 年以来与该股票进行了 41 笔交易。他在 2023 年初再次增持微软，并连续几个季度增加持股。然而，德鲁肯米勒在 2024 年第二季度开始出售该头寸，并在第四季度完全退出。</p>
<p>作为七大奇迹之一，微软未能在 2024 年利用 AI 交易，投资者对公司的 AI 战略和从 AI 中获利的能力表示质疑。过去一年，该公司在实现其指导目标方面也遇到了一些困难。然而，杜克斯在股票之间进出并不罕见。德鲁肯米勒喜欢科技和 AI，但也对估值保持警惕，如果他认为某只股票太贵，就会出售。</p>
<h2>增持其他七大奇迹公司的股票</h2>
<p>尽管出售了微软和博通，德鲁肯米勒在第四季度增持了其他大型科技和 AI 股票，包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>328,400 股 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%)</li>
<li>37,675 股 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.71%)</li>
<li>76,680 股 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.38%)</li>
</ul>
<p>现在，13F 文件显示德鲁肯米勒在第四季度购买了这些股票，但并未说明具体时间。如果他在 2016 年 11 月 5 日特朗普总统当选之前购买了这些股票，他可能会获得不错的收益。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aa019206082a5e6dee9cde96b5436c06.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aa019206082a5e6dee9cde96b5436c06.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>我认为德鲁肯米勒很有可能把握住了时机，因为他在选举前几周公开表示市场已经在定价特朗普的胜利。考虑到估值水平和股票最近的反弹，我可以看到德鲁肯米勒在本季度可能会出售特斯拉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8069d82ed485ce7a0160c15520bf354.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8069d82ed485ce7a0160c15520bf354.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>亚马逊和谷歌对德鲁肯米勒来说更有意义，因为这些股票并不完全依赖于 AI。亚马逊从其软件业务、零售和订阅销售中获得了大量收入，而许多分析师认为谷歌拥有有吸引力的 AI 资产，公司可以从中释放价值。由于美国司法部对该公司的诉讼，谷歌的股票也遭遇了一些困难，许多人认为这一诉讼最终会平息。</p>

博通

微软

<p>亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）已出售其在博通（Broadcom）和微软（Microsoft）中的持仓，转而投资于三只 “七大奇迹” 股票：亚马逊（Amazon）、特斯拉（Tesla）和谷歌母公司 Alphabet。他的基金杜克斯家族办公室（Duquesne Family Office）在最近的 13F 文件中披露了这些变动。德鲁肯米勒出售了近 240,000 股博通股票，该公司在过去一年表现强劲，以及约 43,100 股表现不佳的微软股票。他在交易这两只股票方面有着丰富的经验，并以其对科技和人工智能投资的战略性方法而闻名，专注于估值</p>

<p>Very few investors can claim to be in the same league as Warren Buffett, arguably the greatest investor ever. But billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller is one of them. Druckenmiller worked as a fund manager for George Soros, another legendary investor, and he's never posted a year in the red, while putting up impressive returns over decades of investing. Today, Druckenmiller still invests through his own fund, the Duquesne Family Office. All funds with at least $100 million in assets under management must file 13F forms within 45 days of the end of each calendar quarter, which recently occurred for the fourth quarter of 2024 on Feb. 14. The 13F discloses what stocks funds held at the end of each quarter. In the fourth quarter, Duquesne revealed that it exited its positions in <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO -0.87%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.53%) and piled into these three &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很少有投资者能与沃伦·巴菲特相提并论，他无疑是有史以来最伟大的投资者之一。但亿万富翁斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒就是其中之一。德鲁肯米勒曾担任乔治·索罗斯的基金经理，索罗斯也是另一位传奇投资者，他从未出现过亏损，并在数十年的投资中取得了令人瞩目的回报。如今，德鲁肯米勒仍通过自己的基金——杜克斯家族办公室进行投资。所有管理资产至少为 1 亿美元的基金必须在每个日历季度结束后的 45 天内提交 13F 表格，最近一次是在 2024 年 2 月 14 日的第四季度。13F 表格披露了基金在每个季度末持有的股票。在第四季度，杜克斯披露退出了对 <strong>博通</strong>(AVGO -0.87%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.53%) 的持仓，而转而增持了这三只 “七大奇迹” 股票。</p>
</div><h2>Selling Broadcom and Microsoft</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>出售博通和微软</h2>
</div><p>According to Duquesne's 13F, the fund sold its nearly 240,000 shares of Broadcom and its nearly 43,100 shares of Microsoft. Broadcom had a superb year in 2024, with its stock rising nearly 108%, while Microsoft underperformed the broader market, only posting a 12% gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据杜克斯的 13F 表格，该基金出售了近 240,000 股博通和近 43,100 股微软。博通在 2024 年表现出色，股价上涨近 108%，而微软的表现逊色于大盘，仅上涨了 12%。</p>
</div><p>Druckenmiller has been in and out of Broadcom since 2023. He purchased a new stake in the company in the third quarter of 2023 and then sold in the following quarter. He repeated this trend in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Druckenmiller looks to have done OK on his trades with Broadcom, selling for higher average prices than he bought the stock for with gains in the 9% to 16% range based on his average purchase and sale prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德鲁肯米勒自 2023 年以来一直在博通之间进出。他在 2023 年第三季度购买了该公司的新股份，然后在下一个季度出售。他在 2024 年的第三和第四季度重复了这一趋势。德鲁肯米勒在博通的交易似乎表现不错，出售时的平均价格高于购买时的价格，基于他的平均购买和销售价格，收益在 9% 到 16% 之间。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom has captivated the market with its ability to make custom chips for companies that can be used to carry out specific artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. For instance, one of Broadcom's clients is <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>. The two teamed up to build the Meta Training and Inference Accelerator chip. Meta plans to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into AI technology. Many analysts and investors also think Broadcom has secured a relationship with OpenAI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通凭借其为公司定制芯片的能力吸引了市场，这些芯片可用于实施特定的人工智能（AI）策略。例如，博通的客户之一是 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>。两者合作开发了 Meta 训练和推理加速器芯片。Meta 计划在 AI 技术上投入数千亿美元。许多分析师和投资者也认为博通与 OpenAI 建立了合作关系。</p>
</div><p>Druckenmiller has been investing in and trading Microsoft for over a decade and has made 41 transactions with the stock since 2014. He once again took a new stake in Microsoft in early 2023 and increased his stake for several consecutive quarters. However, Druckenmiller began selling the position in the second quarter of 2024 and exited the position in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德鲁肯米勒在过去十多年里一直在投资和交易微软，自 2014 年以来与该股票进行了 41 笔交易。他在 2023 年初再次增持微软，并连续几个季度增加持股。然而，德鲁肯米勒在 2024 年第二季度开始出售该头寸，并在第四季度完全退出。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft, a member of the Magnificent Seven, failed to take advantage of the AI trade in 2024, as investors questioned the company's AI strategy and ability to make money off of AI. The company has also had some trouble over the last year hitting its guidance. However, it's not unusual for Duquesne to be in and out of stocks. Druckenmiller likes tech and AI but is also vigilant on valuations and will sell any stock if he thinks it's too expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为七大奇迹之一，微软未能在 2024 年利用 AI 交易，投资者对公司的 AI 战略和从 AI 中获利的能力表示质疑。过去一年，该公司在实现其指导目标方面也遇到了一些困难。然而，杜克斯在股票之间进出并不罕见。德鲁肯米勒喜欢科技和 AI，但也对估值保持警惕，如果他认为某只股票太贵，就会出售。</p>
</div><h2>Scooping up other companies of the Mag Seven</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增持其他七大奇迹公司的股票</h2>
</div><p>Despite selling Microsoft and Broadcom, Druckenmiller scooped up shares in other big tech and AI stocks in the fourth quarter including:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管出售了微软和博通，德鲁肯米勒在第四季度增持了其他大型科技和 AI 股票，包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>328,400 shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.65%)</li>
<li>37,675 shares of <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.71%)</li>
<li>76,680 shares of <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.38%)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>328,400 股 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.65%)</li>
<li>37,675 股 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.71%)</li>
<li>76,680 股 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.38%)</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Now, the 13F filing shows that Druckenmiller purchased these stocks in the fourth quarter but it doesn't say exactly when. If he purchased them prior to President Donald Trump's election victory on Nov. 5, he's likely done quite well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，13F 文件显示德鲁肯米勒在第四季度购买了这些股票，但并未说明具体时间。如果他在 2016 年 11 月 5 日特朗普总统当选之前购买了这些股票，他可能会获得不错的收益。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aa019206082a5e6dee9cde96b5436c06.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aa019206082a5e6dee9cde96b5436c06.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>I think there is a good chance that Druckenmiller did get the timing right because he said publicly a few weeks before the election that the market had been pricing in a Trump victory. Given where valuations trade and the stock's recent rally, I could see Druckenmiller potentially selling Tesla during this quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为德鲁肯米勒很有可能把握住了时机，因为他在选举前几周公开表示市场已经在定价特朗普的胜利。考虑到估值水平和股票最近的反弹，我可以看到德鲁肯米勒在本季度可能会出售特斯拉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8069d82ed485ce7a0160c15520bf354.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8069d82ed485ce7a0160c15520bf354.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Amazon and Google make a lot more sense for Druckenmiller because these stocks that are not solely reliant on AI. Amazon makes a lot of revenue from its software business and retail and subscription sales, while many analysts believe Google has attractive AI assets that the company can unlock value from. Google's stock has also struggled due to the U.S. Department of Justice's lawsuit against the company, which many believe will eventually blow over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊和谷歌对德鲁肯米勒来说更有意义，因为这些股票并不完全依赖于 AI。亚马逊从其软件业务、零售和订阅销售中获得了大量收入，而许多分析师认为谷歌拥有有吸引力的 AI 资产，公司可以从中释放价值。由于美国司法部对该公司的诉讼，谷歌的股票也遭遇了一些困难，许多人认为这一诉讼最终会平息。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Investor Stanley Druckenmiller Just Sold Broadcom and Microsoft and Piled Into These "Magnificent Seven" Stocks Instead

- 斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒在 2024 年第四季度退出了博通和微软的持股。  
- 他同时增持了亚马逊、特斯拉和谷歌等科技股。  
- 德鲁肯米勒的投资策略关注估值，灵活进出市场。  

亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒刚刚卖掉了博通和微软，并转而投入这些 “七大奇迹” 股票