<p>在过去的几年里，半导体股票成为市场最新的 megatrend——人工智能（AI）的最大受益者之一。特别是向数据中心供应图形处理单元（GPU）的 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 相较于 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 和 <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> 的表现，获得了异常高的收益。</p>
<p>然而，在背景中，代工专家 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM -0.42%）——也称为 TSMC——悄然崛起，成为芯片领域的领导者。最棒的是？这只股票仍然非常便宜。以下是我认为台积电将在未来 10 年内成为表现最佳的芯片股票的原因。</p>
<h2>为什么台积电看起来准备蓬勃发展</h2>
<p>数据中心的 GPU 是推动各种令人兴奋的生成式 AI 应用的重要硬件。从这个意义上讲，像 Nvidia、Broadcom 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 这样的公司在训练大型语言模型（LLM）或机器学习等用例方面都应被视为领导者。</p>
<p>然而，您可能不知道的是，这些公司都在很大程度上依赖台积电来实际制造他们的芯片。台积电专注于代工服务，为许多不同的半导体供应商制造芯片组，这些供应商的用例涵盖计算、移动设备、云基础设施等多个领域。</p>
<p>虽然这为台积电当前的情况提供了依据，但未来的前景更让我感到兴奋。根据 Precedence Research 的数据，预计到 2034 年，AI 芯片的总可寻址市场（TAM）将接近 1 万亿美元——大约是其当前估计规模的 10 倍。</p>
<p>当您还考虑到像 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 这样的云超大规模公司预计在 2025 年仅在芯片上的支出将超过 2000 亿美元时，我认为 AI 芯片市场在未来几年将呈指数级扩张的可能性越来越大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这里需要理解的观点是，Nvidia 及其同行对芯片的激增需求对台积电特别有利，因为该公司深深嵌入了许多领先半导体公司的生态系统中。为了强调台积电对其他芯片公司的重要性，考虑到它占据了超过 60% 的芯片制造市场——绝对压倒了 <strong>Intel</strong> 和三星等竞争对手。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzI0NDEyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzI0NDEyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么我认为台积电将产生比 Nvidia 更高的回报</h2>
<p>下图展示了过去几年 Nvidia 和台积电的股价回报。虽然台积电的股票产生了超越市场的回报，但与 Nvidia 投资者所经历的情况相比，差距仍然很大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>尽管预计 AI 芯片市场将继续增长，但我认为来自 AMD 和超大规模云服务提供商使用的定制硅供应商的竞争将成为 Nvidia 在未来几年面临的阻力。相比之下，台积电处于一个实际上可以从芯片领域竞争加剧中受益的位置。</p>
<p>因此，我实际上认为台积电的收入和盈利加速将继续上升。尽管如此，台积电的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 22.6——与 S&amp;P 500 的前瞻市盈率平均水平 20.9 非常接近。</p>
<p>在我看来，台积电正处于一个有利可图的位置，可以继续扩大其在代工行业的影响力。芯片市场的增长，加上 AI 领域竞争的加剧，让我对投资台积电能够在长期内产生优于 S&amp;P 500 的回报充满信心。</p>
<p>然而，我认为台积电的股票尚未迎来它的 &#34;Nvidia 时刻&#34;。基于所有这些原因，我认为这只股票是一个显而易见的机会，价格便宜。具有长期投资视野的投资者可能想考虑现在就购买台积电的股票并紧紧持有。</p>

台积电

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）预计将在未来十年成为表现最佳的芯片股票，尽管英伟达在人工智能芯片市场中占据重要地位。作为代工服务的领导者，TSMC 对主要半导体公司至关重要，并预计将受益于对人工智能芯片日益增长的需求，该需求预计到 2034 年将接近 1 万亿美元。TSMC 的前瞻市盈率接近标准普尔 500 指数的平均水平，为长期投资者提供了一个引人注目的投资机会，因为它在芯片行业竞争加剧的情况下处于良好的发展位置</p>

<p>Over the last couple of years, semiconductor stocks have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of the market's newest megatrend, artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, suppliers of graphics processing units (GPUs) to data centers such as <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Broadcom</strong> have witnessed abnormally high gains relative to those seen across the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的几年里，半导体股票成为市场最新的 megatrend——人工智能（AI）的最大受益者之一。特别是向数据中心供应图形处理单元（GPU）的 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 相较于 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 和 <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> 的表现，获得了异常高的收益。</p>
</div><p>In the background, however, foundry specialist <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -0.42%) -- known as TSMC -- has quietly emerged as a leader in the chip space in its own right. The best part? The stock is still dirt cheap. Here's why I think Taiwan Semi will turn out to be the top-performing chip stock over the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在背景中，代工专家 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM -0.42%）——也称为 TSMC——悄然崛起，成为芯片领域的领导者。最棒的是？这只股票仍然非常便宜。以下是我认为台积电将在未来 10 年内成为表现最佳的芯片股票的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Why TSMC looks primed to thrive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么台积电看起来准备蓬勃发展</h2>
</div><p>Data center GPUs are important pieces of hardware powering all sorts of exciting generative AI applications. In this sense, companies such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> should all be considered leaders when it comes to use cases such as training large language models (LLMs) or machine learning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据中心的 GPU 是推动各种令人兴奋的生成式 AI 应用的重要硬件。从这个意义上讲，像 Nvidia、Broadcom 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 这样的公司在训练大型语言模型（LLM）或机器学习等用例方面都应被视为领导者。</p>
</div><p>What you may not know, however, is that each of these companies relies heavily on Taiwan Semi to actually manufacture their chipware. TSMC specializes in foundry services, making chipsets for many different semiconductor providers that span use cases across computing, mobile devices, cloud infrastructure, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，您可能不知道的是，这些公司都在很大程度上依赖台积电来实际制造他们的芯片。台积电专注于代工服务，为许多不同的半导体供应商制造芯片组，这些供应商的用例涵盖计算、移动设备、云基础设施等多个领域。</p>
</div><p>While this makes the case for Taiwan Semi's current picture, it's the future prospects that have more even more intrigued. According to Precedence Research, the total addressable market (TAM) for AI chips is expected to reach nearly $1 trillion by 2034 -- roughly 10 times its current estimated size.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这为台积电当前的情况提供了依据，但未来的前景更让我感到兴奋。根据 Precedence Research 的数据，预计到 2034 年，AI 芯片的总可寻址市场（TAM）将接近 1 万亿美元——大约是其当前估计规模的 10 倍。</p>
</div><p>When you also consider that cloud hyperscalers such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are all expected to spend north of $200 billion on chips just in 2025, I think it becomes increasingly feasible that the AI chip market will be expanding exponentially over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当您还考虑到像 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 这样的云超大规模公司预计在 2025 年仅在芯片上的支出将超过 2000 亿美元时，我认为 AI 芯片市场在未来几年将呈指数级扩张的可能性越来越大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The idea to understand here is that surging demand for chips from Nvidia and its peers bodes particularly well for Taiwan Semi, since the company is deeply embedded in the ecosystems of many leading semiconductor companies. Just to emphasize how important TSMC is for other chip companies, consider that it accounts for more than 60% of the chip manufacturing market -- absolutely trouncing competitors such as <strong>Intel</strong> and Samsung.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里需要理解的观点是，Nvidia 及其同行对芯片的激增需求对台积电特别有利，因为该公司深深嵌入了许多领先半导体公司的生态系统中。为了强调台积电对其他芯片公司的重要性，考虑到它占据了超过 60% 的芯片制造市场——绝对压倒了 <strong>Intel</strong> 和三星等竞争对手。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzI0NDEyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807901%2Fgettyimages-1373244125.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why I think TSMC will generate higher returns than Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么我认为台积电将产生比 Nvidia 更高的回报</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates the share price returns between Nvidia and TSMC over the last couple of years. While Taiwan Semi stock has produced market-beating returns, it's not even close to what Nvidia investors have experienced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图展示了过去几年 Nvidia 和台积电的股价回报。虽然台积电的股票产生了超越市场的回报，但与 Nvidia 投资者所经历的情况相比，差距仍然很大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png"/></p>
<p>TSM data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Even though the AI chip market is projected to continue growing, I think increased competition from AMD and custom silicon providers used by the hyperscalers will become a headwind for Nvidia in the next few years. In contrast, Taiwan Semi is in a position to actually benefit from rising competition in the chip space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管预计 AI 芯片市场将继续增长，但我认为来自 AMD 和超大规模云服务提供商使用的定制硅供应商的竞争将成为 Nvidia 在未来几年面临的阻力。相比之下，台积电处于一个实际上可以从芯片领域竞争加剧中受益的位置。</p>
</div><p>For this reason, I actually think TSMC's revenue and earnings acceleration will continue climbing. Nevertheless, TSMC is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.6 -- quite close to the average forward P/E of the S&amp;P 500, which sits at 20.9.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我实际上认为台积电的收入和盈利加速将继续上升。尽管如此，台积电的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 22.6——与 S&amp;P 500 的前瞻市盈率平均水平 20.9 非常接近。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, TSMC is sitting in a lucrative position to continue expanding its reach in the foundry industry. The growing market for chips, underscored by rising competition in the AI realm, has me bullish that an investment in Taiwan Semi will indeed produce superior returns to the S&amp;P 500 in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，台积电正处于一个有利可图的位置，可以继续扩大其在代工行业的影响力。芯片市场的增长，加上 AI 领域竞争的加剧，让我对投资台积电能够在长期内产生优于 S&amp;P 500 的回报充满信心。</p>
</div><p>However, I think TSMC stock is yet to have its &#34;Nvidia moment,&#34; so to speak. For all these reasons, I think the stock is a no-brainer opportunity, trading for a bargain. Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to consider scooping up shares of TSMC right now and holding on tightly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为台积电的股票尚未迎来它的 &#34;Nvidia 时刻&#34;。基于所有这些原因，我认为这只股票是一个显而易见的机会，价格便宜。具有长期投资视野的投资者可能想考虑现在就购买台积电的股票并紧紧持有。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be the Top-Performing Chip Stock Over the Next 10 Years (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- 半导体股在人工智能浪潮中获益，尤其是 GPU 供应商如 Nvidia 和 Broadcom。  
- 台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）在芯片制造领域崭露头角，市场份额超过 60%。  
- 预计 AI 芯片市场到 2034 年将达近 1 万亿美元，TSMC 有望实现更高回报。  

预测：未来十年，这只芯片股票将表现最佳（提示：不是 Nvidia）