<p>过去几个月，投资于房屋建筑商股票的日子相当艰难。这一点在专注于阳光带的建筑商 <strong>Dream Finders Homes</strong>（DFH -3.18%）身上尤为明显，其股价较 52 周高点下跌了约 50%。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，公司的业务本身仍然表现良好。在最近的季度报告中，Dream Finders 的房屋建筑收入同比增长了 10%，利润率保持强劲，净新订单增长了 9%。此外，Dream Finders 报告了约 20 亿美元的已售房屋积压。</p>
<p>然而，由于抵押贷款利率顽固地高企以及潜在的关税逆风，该股票遭受重创，目前的交易价格不到未来收益预期的 7 倍。尽管 Dream Finders 已经是我投资组合中的一项重要投资，但我正在考虑现在增加更多股份。</p>
<h2>为什么 Dream Finders Homes 会遭受重创？</h2>
<p>简而言之，由于住房市场状况和关税担忧的结合，目前房屋建筑行业存在相当大的不确定性。</p>
<p>抵押贷款利率仍在 7% 左右，这使得许多潜在的购房者和卖家处于观望状态。在 2022-2024 年房地产放缓的很大一部分时间里，房屋建筑商能够通过抵押贷款利率买断等激励措施吸引买家，但现在似乎效果不佳。根据全国房屋建筑商协会的住房市场指数，房屋建筑商的销售预期处于 2023 年底以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>此外，关税可能对房屋建筑商的影响超出你的想象。大约三分之一的建筑用木材是进口的（主要来自加拿大），新房中使用的其他组件，如家电，也大致如此。钢铁和铝目前也是关税的目标，并在房屋建筑过程中发挥着重要作用。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，关税何时会真正生效仍然非常不确定。但如果生效，它们可能会在销售量本就预期较低的情况下，挤压房屋建筑商的利润率。</p>
<h2>巨大的机会</h2>
<p>Dream Finders 成立已有 15 年多，从其第一个完整年度（2009 年）的 27 套房屋增长到预计 2024 年的 8,250 套。公司总部位于佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔，并在美国一些增长最快的市场开展业务，包括奥兰多、卡罗莱纳州、乔治亚州、科罗拉多州和德克萨斯州。</p>
<p>该公司采取轻土地的策略，通过购买期权合同控制可建造的地块，而不需要占用太多资本。这一模式是由长期存在的房屋建筑商 <strong>NVR</strong> 首创并完善的，自 1993 年首次公开募股（IPO）以来，其总回报率约为 90,000%。</p>
<p>现在，我并不是说 Dream Finders 会表现得如此出色，但这一模式使公司比传统的购买大块土地开发社区的模式拥有更多的财务灵活性。</p>
<p>Dream Finders 通过收购迅速增长，并最近通过收购一家私人房屋建筑商扩展到庞大的亚特兰大住房市场。值得注意的是，Dream Finders 专注于入门级和 “首次升级” 住房。考虑到美国有数百万套住房短缺，以及过去几年高抵押贷款利率造成的巨大需求积压，Dream Finders 可能处于一个良好的受益位置。尤其是考虑到 Dream Finders 核心市场的相对可负担性。</p>
<h2>不是低风险股票，但潜力巨大</h2>
<p>明确来说，Dream Finders 并不是一只低风险股票。首先，它的债务（占总资本的比例）高于大多数其他房屋建筑商。此外，它仍在相当激进地增长，并且目前在美国东南部的地理集中度相当高。即使公司运作良好，预计在此过程中也会经历一些波动。</p>
<p>作为背景，如果 Dream Finders 的市值从当前水平增长 10 倍，这将意味着市值超过 200 亿美元（如果管理层继续回购股票，可能会更少）。这将使其市值不到领先房屋建筑商 <strong>D.R. Horton</strong>（NYSE: DHI）的一半，约为 <strong>Lennar</strong>（NYSE: LEN）市值的 60%。</p>
<p>要实现这一规模显然需要未来几年一切顺利。然而，如果公司继续扩大其市场份额并合理配置资本，未来 15 年内肯定能够实现这一目标，尤其是考虑到 Dream Finders 前 15 年的表现是多么令人印象深刻。</p>

<p>Dream Finders Homes (DFH) 的股票从其 52 周高点下跌了约 50%，尽管其房屋建筑收入同比增长了 10%，并且有 20 亿美元的已售房屋积压。高抵押贷款利率和关税不确定性正在影响房屋建筑行业。Dream Finders 自成立以来显著增长，运营于快速增长的市场，并采用轻土地策略。尽管其债务水平高于同行，但其增长潜力依然存在，如果继续成功扩展，市场资本有可能增加 10 倍</p>

<p>It has been a rough few months to be invested in homebuilder stocks. This is especially true for Sun Belt-focused builder <strong>Dream Finders Homes</strong>(DFH -3.18%), which is down by about 50% from its 52-week high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几个月，投资于房屋建筑商股票的日子相当艰难。这一点在专注于阳光带的建筑商 <strong>Dream Finders Homes</strong>（DFH -3.18%）身上尤为明显，其股价较 52 周高点下跌了约 50%。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, the business itself continues to perform quite well. In the most recent quarterly report, Dream Finders' homebuilding revenue increased 10% year over year, margins remained strong, and net new orders increased by 9%. Plus, Dream Finders reported a backlog of about $2 billion worth of sold homes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，公司的业务本身仍然表现良好。在最近的季度报告中，Dream Finders 的房屋建筑收入同比增长了 10%，利润率保持强劲，净新订单增长了 9%。此外，Dream Finders 报告了约 20 亿美元的已售房屋积压。</p>
</div><p>However, due to stubbornly high mortgage rates and potential tariff headwinds, the stock has been beaten down and is now trading for less than 7 times forward earning estimates. And even though Dream Finders is already a large investment in my portfolio, I'm considering adding more shares right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，由于抵押贷款利率顽固地高企以及潜在的关税逆风，该股票遭受重创，目前的交易价格不到未来收益预期的 7 倍。尽管 Dream Finders 已经是我投资组合中的一项重要投资，但我正在考虑现在增加更多股份。</p>
</div><h2>Why is Dream Finders Homes beaten down?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 Dream Finders Homes 会遭受重创？</h2>
</div><p>In short, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the homebuilding industry right now due to a combination of housing market conditions and tariff worries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，由于住房市场状况和关税担忧的结合，目前房屋建筑行业存在相当大的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Mortgage rates remain in the 7% ballpark, which has kept many would-be homebuyers and sellers on the sidelines. For much of the 2022-2024 real estate slowdown, homebuilders have been able to attract buyers with incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, but this seems to be less effective now. Sales expectations by homebuilders are at their lowest level since late 2023, according to the National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>抵押贷款利率仍在 7% 左右，这使得许多潜在的购房者和卖家处于观望状态。在 2022-2024 年房地产放缓的很大一部分时间里，房屋建筑商能够通过抵押贷款利率买断等激励措施吸引买家，但现在似乎效果不佳。根据全国房屋建筑商协会的住房市场指数，房屋建筑商的销售预期处于 2023 年底以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, tariffs could affect homebuilders more than you might think. Roughly one-third of the lumber used in home construction is imported (mostly from Canada), and the same is true of other components used in new homes, such as appliances. Steel and aluminum are also currently targets of tariffs and play a significant role in the homebuilding process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，关税可能对房屋建筑商的影响超出你的想象。大约三分之一的建筑用木材是进口的（主要来自加拿大），新房中使用的其他组件，如家电，也大致如此。钢铁和铝目前也是关税的目标，并在房屋建筑过程中发挥着重要作用。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, if and when tariffs will actually go into effect is still very much in flux right now. But if they do, they could squeeze homebuilders' profit margins at a time when sales volume is already expected to be rather low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，关税何时会真正生效仍然非常不确定。但如果生效，它们可能会在销售量本就预期较低的情况下，挤压房屋建筑商的利润率。</p>
</div><h2>A massive opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的机会</h2>
</div><p>Dream Finders has been around for a little over 15 years and has grown impressively from 27 homes in its first full year (2009) to an estimated 8,250 in 2024. It is based in Jacksonville, Florida, and has operations in some of the fastest-growing markets in the U.S., including Orlando, both Carolinas, Georgia, Colorado, and Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dream Finders 成立已有 15 年多，从其第一个完整年度（2009 年）的 27 套房屋增长到预计 2024 年的 8,250 套。公司总部位于佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔，并在美国一些增长最快的市场开展业务，包括奥兰多、卡罗莱纳州、乔治亚州、科罗拉多州和德克萨斯州。</p>
</div><p>The company takes a land-light approach, using purchase option contracts to control buildable lots without tying up much capital. This model was pioneered and perfected by long-established homebuilder <strong>NVR</strong>, which has used it to deliver a roughly 90,000% total return since its 1993 initial public offering (IPO).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司采取轻土地的策略，通过购买期权合同控制可建造的地块，而不需要占用太多资本。这一模式是由长期存在的房屋建筑商 <strong>NVR</strong> 首创并完善的，自 1993 年首次公开募股（IPO）以来，其总回报率约为 90,000%。</p>
</div><p>Now, I'm not saying that Dream Finders will perform <em>that</em> well, but this model allows the company more financial flexibility than the traditional model of buying large tracts of land to develop neighborhoods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，我并不是说 Dream Finders 会表现得如此出色，但这一模式使公司比传统的购买大块土地开发社区的模式拥有更多的财务灵活性。</p>
</div><p>Dream Finders has grown rapidly through acquisitions and just recently expanded into the massive Atlanta housing market by acquiring a private homebuilder. It is also worth noting that Dream Finders specializes in entry-level and &#34;first move-up&#34; homes. With a housing shortage of millions of homes in the U.S. and tons of pent-up demand from the past few years of high mortgage rates, Dream Finders could be in a great position to benefit. That's especially true with the relatively affordable nature of Dream Finders' core markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dream Finders 通过收购迅速增长，并最近通过收购一家私人房屋建筑商扩展到庞大的亚特兰大住房市场。值得注意的是，Dream Finders 专注于入门级和 “首次升级” 住房。考虑到美国有数百万套住房短缺，以及过去几年高抵押贷款利率造成的巨大需求积压，Dream Finders 可能处于一个良好的受益位置。尤其是考虑到 Dream Finders 核心市场的相对可负担性。</p>
</div><h2>Not a low-risk stock, but massive potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不是低风险股票，但潜力巨大</h2>
</div><p>To be clear, Dream Finders isn't a low-risk stock. For one thing, it has more debt (as a percentage of total capitalization) than most other homebuilders. It also continues to grow rather aggressively and, for the time being, is rather geographically concentrated in the Southeastern United States. Even if things are going well for the company, expect a bit of a roller coaster ride along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明确来说，Dream Finders 并不是一只低风险股票。首先，它的债务（占总资本的比例）高于大多数其他房屋建筑商。此外，它仍在相当激进地增长，并且目前在美国东南部的地理集中度相当高。即使公司运作良好，预计在此过程中也会经历一些波动。</p>
</div><p>For context, for Dream Finders to 10x from its current level, it would imply a market cap of just over $20 billion (probably less if management continues to buy back shares). This would make it less than half the size of leading homebuilder <strong>D.R. Horton</strong>(NYSE: DHI) and about 60% of the size of <strong>Lennar</strong>(NYSE: LEN).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为背景，如果 Dream Finders 的市值从当前水平增长 10 倍，这将意味着市值超过 200 亿美元（如果管理层继续回购股票，可能会更少）。这将使其市值不到领先房屋建筑商 <strong>D.R. Horton</strong>（NYSE: DHI）的一半，约为 <strong>Lennar</strong>（NYSE: LEN）市值的 60%。</p>
</div><p>Achieving this level of scale would clearly require a lot to go right in the coming years. However, if the company continues to expand its footprint and allocate capital well, it could certainly get there within the next 15 years -- especially considering how impressive Dream Finders' <em>first</em> 15 years have been.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要实现这一规模显然需要未来几年一切顺利。然而，如果公司继续扩大其市场份额并合理配置资本，未来 15 年内肯定能够实现这一目标，尤其是考虑到 Dream Finders 前 15 年的表现是多么令人印象深刻。</p>
</div>

这只股票现在被严重低估，但我认为它可能会涨 10 倍