<p>前马吉兰基金经理彼得·林奇一直提倡购买你所了解的东西。林奇在他的投资生涯中通过这样做取得了巨大的成功。</p>
<p>他的建议是我持有 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -2.83%）股票的原因之一。我们家每周都会收到多次从亚马逊订购的产品。我每天都在我的 Kindle 设备上阅读书籍。我常去的许多网站都托管在亚马逊网络服务（AWS）上。而亚马逊的虚拟助手 Alexa 几乎是家里的成员。</p>
<p>我认为亚马逊是几乎任何投资者投资组合中的一个很好的补充。但是，今天购买亚马逊股票是否能让你终身受益呢？</p>
<h2>过去看起来很有前景</h2>
<p>如果我们问购买亚马逊股票是否能让你在过去终身受益，答案将是一个响亮的 “是”。林奇在他的畅销书《华尔街的赢家》中写到了 “十倍股”，即能够带来 10 倍回报的股票。亚马逊的这种收益看起来微不足道。自公司在 1997 年 5 月进行首次公开募股（IPO）以来，其股价已经飙升了超过 2255 倍。</p>
<p>让我们用美元来说明这一表现，以帮助理解它是多么令人印象深刻。如果你在亚马逊股票开始公开交易后投资了 10,000 美元，并且从未卖出，你的投资今天将价值大约 2250 万美元。我称之为终身受益。</p>
<p>然而，你并不需要在亚马逊刚开始时就投资才能成为大赢家。如果你在 2005 年 2 月才购买了 10,000 美元的公司股票，那时亚马逊已经成功，市值超过 140 亿美元？你今天仍然会是百万富翁，你的持仓价值将增长到大约 125 万美元。</p>
<p>当然，持有这些亚马逊股票对我们大多数人来说是很困难的。股票在此过程中经历了多次大幅回调。多年前的一些巨大收益可能会诱使许多投资者出售并获利。但在过去购买并持有亚马逊股票无疑是积累财富的好方法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>太大，太晚？</h2>
<p>亚马逊辉煌的历史是否意味着该股票在未来会带来类似的收益？当然不是。</p>
<p>任何在亚马逊首次公开募股时投资的人都是在对一家面临大量竞争的未验证公司进行赌博。如果你在 2005 年初购买了该股票，AWS 的推出还要一年多。</p>
<p>今天，亚马逊的市值超过 2.3 万亿美元。该公司主导着电子商务市场。AWS 在云服务市场中占据最大的市场份额。尽管亚马逊仍然秉持创始人杰夫·贝索斯所灌输的 “今天是第一天” 的理念，但事实是，对于公司来说，已经不再是第一天。</p>
<p>可以强烈认为，现在投资亚马逊可能已经太晚，因为该公司实在是太大了。对于像亚马逊这样的大公司来说，识别能够显著推动增长的机会变得更加困难。</p>
<h2>支持亚马逊的两个论点</h2>
<p>然而，我并不排除现在购买亚马逊股票可能让你终身受益的可能性。在我看来，有两个论点特别支持亚马逊。</p>
<p>首先，AWS 仍然具有巨大的增长潜力。人工智能，尤其是生成式人工智能，继续为业务提供巨大的助力。亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西认为，全球 IT 支出将在未来 10 到 15 年内从目前约 85% 的本地支出转向大约同样比例的云支出。AWS 将成为这一趋势的主要受益者。</p>
<p>其次，全球零售销售中仍有 80% 到 85% 是在实体店进行的。贾西预测，这一动态将在未来 10 到 20 年内发生逆转，电子商务将占据零售市场的主要份额。如果他是对的，亚马逊的核心电子商务业务应该会显著增长。</p>
<p>即使有这两个机会，今天投资 10,000 美元在亚马逊上可能也无法让你终身受益。然而，我认为购买该股票仍然可以让你在长期内赚取大量财富。</p>

亚马逊

<p>前麦哲伦基金经理彼得·林奇提倡投资于熟悉的公司，以亚马逊为典型例子。自 1997 年上市以来，亚马逊的股票上涨了超过 2255 倍，将 1 万美元的投资转变为今天约 2250 万美元。尽管过去的表现表明了巨大的潜力，但由于亚马逊的规模，未来增长的担忧也随之而来。然而，AWS 和电子商务增长中的机会仍可能使亚马逊成为值得投资的对象，尽管这并不保证会带来改变人生的回报</p>

<p>Former Magellan Fund manager Peter Lynch has always promoted buying what you know. Lynch achieved tremendous success during his investing career doing just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前马吉兰基金经理彼得·林奇一直提倡购买你所了解的东西。林奇在他的投资生涯中通过这样做取得了巨大的成功。</p>
</div><p>His advice is one of the reasons I own shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.83%). Our household receives products ordered from Amazon multiple times each week. I read books on my Kindle device every day. Many of the websites I frequent are hosted on Amazon Web Services (AWS). And Alexa, Amazon's virtual assistant, is practically a member of the family.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的建议是我持有 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -2.83%）股票的原因之一。我们家每周都会收到多次从亚马逊订购的产品。我每天都在我的 Kindle 设备上阅读书籍。我常去的许多网站都托管在亚马逊网络服务（AWS）上。而亚马逊的虚拟助手 Alexa 几乎是家里的成员。</p>
</div><p>I think Amazon is a great addition to nearly any investor's portfolio. But could buying Amazon stock today set you up for life?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为亚马逊是几乎任何投资者投资组合中的一个很好的补充。但是，今天购买亚马逊股票是否能让你终身受益呢？</p>
</div><h2>The past looks promising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>过去看起来很有前景</h2>
</div><p>If we were asking whether buying Amazon stock could have set you up for life in the past, the answer would be a resounding &#34;yes.&#34; Lynch wrote about &#34;10-bagger&#34; stocks that deliver 10x returns in his best-selling book <em>One Up on Wall Street</em>. Amazon makes such gains look puny. Since the company conducted its initial public offering (IPO) in May 1997, its share price has skyrocketed by <em>more than 2,255x</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我们问购买亚马逊股票是否能让你在过去终身受益，答案将是一个响亮的 “是”。林奇在他的畅销书《华尔街的赢家》中写到了 “十倍股”，即能够带来 10 倍回报的股票。亚马逊的这种收益看起来微不足道。自公司在 1997 年 5 月进行首次公开募股（IPO）以来，其股价已经飙升了超过 2255 倍。</p>
</div><p>Let's put that performance in terms of dollars to help understand just how impressive it is. If you invested $10,000 in Amazon after its shares began trading publicly and never sold, your investment would be worth roughly $22.5 million today. I'd call that being set up for life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们用美元来说明这一表现，以帮助理解它是多么令人印象深刻。如果你在亚马逊股票开始公开交易后投资了 10,000 美元，并且从未卖出，你的投资今天将价值大约 2250 万美元。我称之为终身受益。</p>
</div><p>However, you wouldn't have had to invest in Amazon at the very beginning to be a big winner. What if you didn't buy $10,000 of the company's shares until February 2005, when Amazon was already successful and sported a market cap of over $14 billion? You'd still be a millionaire today, with your position growing in value to around $1.25 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，你并不需要在亚马逊刚开始时就投资才能成为大赢家。如果你在 2005 年 2 月才购买了 10,000 美元的公司股票，那时亚马逊已经成功，市值超过 140 亿美元？你今天仍然会是百万富翁，你的持仓价值将增长到大约 125 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Granted, holding on to those Amazon shares would have been hard to do for most of us. The stock experienced multiple massive drawdowns along the way. Some of the tremendous gains years ago could have tempted many investors to sell and take profits. But buying and holding Amazon stock in the past has definitely been a great way to amass a fortune.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，持有这些亚马逊股票对我们大多数人来说是很困难的。股票在此过程中经历了多次大幅回调。多年前的一些巨大收益可能会诱使许多投资者出售并获利。但在过去购买并持有亚马逊股票无疑是积累财富的好方法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Too big, too late?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>太大，太晚？</h2>
</div><p>Does Amazon's spectacular history mean the stock will deliver similar gains in the future? Of course not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊辉煌的历史是否意味着该股票在未来会带来类似的收益？当然不是。</p>
</div><p>Anyone who invested in Amazon at its IPO was making a wager on an unproven company facing lots of competition in the e-commerce space. If you bought the stock in early 2005, AWS was still over a year away from being launched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何在亚马逊首次公开募股时投资的人都是在对一家面临大量竞争的未验证公司进行赌博。如果你在 2005 年初购买了该股票，AWS 的推出还要一年多。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's market cap tops $2.3 trillion today. The company dominates the e-commerce market. AWS claims the largest market share in the cloud services market. Although Amazon still subscribes to the &#34;it's day one&#34; philosophy instilled by founder Jeff Bezos, the truth is that it's no longer day one for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，亚马逊的市值超过 2.3 万亿美元。该公司主导着电子商务市场。AWS 在云服务市场中占据最大的市场份额。尽管亚马逊仍然秉持创始人杰夫·贝索斯所灌输的 “今天是第一天” 的理念，但事实是，对于公司来说，已经不再是第一天。</p>
</div><p>There's a strong case to be made that it's too late for Amazon to be an investment that will set you up for life because the company is simply too big. It's harder for a company as large as Amazon to identify growth opportunities that will move the needle significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以强烈认为，现在投资亚马逊可能已经太晚，因为该公司实在是太大了。对于像亚马逊这样的大公司来说，识别能够显著推动增长的机会变得更加困难。</p>
</div><h2>Two arguments in favor of Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>支持亚马逊的两个论点</h2>
</div><p>However, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that buying Amazon stock now might set you up for life. Two arguments especially work in Amazon's favor, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我并不排除现在购买亚马逊股票可能让你终身受益的可能性。在我看来，有两个论点特别支持亚马逊。</p>
</div><p>First, AWS still has tremendous growth potential. Artificial intelligence, especially generative AI, continues to provide a massive tailwind for the business. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy believes that global IT spending will shift from around 85% on-premises today to roughly that percentage in the cloud within the next 10 to 15 years. AWS stands to be a primary beneficiary of this trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，AWS 仍然具有巨大的增长潜力。人工智能，尤其是生成式人工智能，继续为业务提供巨大的助力。亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西认为，全球 IT 支出将在未来 10 到 15 年内从目前约 85% 的本地支出转向大约同样比例的云支出。AWS 将成为这一趋势的主要受益者。</p>
</div><p>Second, between 80% and 85% of global retail sales are still made in brick-and-mortar stores. Jassy predicts this dynamic will flip, with e-commerce making up the lion's share of the retail market in the next 10 to 20 years. If he's right, Amazon's core e-commerce business should grow significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，全球零售销售中仍有 80% 到 85% 是在实体店进行的。贾西预测，这一动态将在未来 10 到 20 年内发生逆转，电子商务将占据零售市场的主要份额。如果他是对的，亚马逊的核心电子商务业务应该会显著增长。</p>
</div><p>Even with these two opportunities, investing $10,000 in Amazon today might not set you up for life. However, I think buying the stock could still make you a lot of money over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使有这两个机会，今天投资 10,000 美元在亚马逊上可能也无法让你终身受益。然而，我认为购买该股票仍然可以让你在长期内赚取大量财富。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Amazon Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- 彼得·林奇提倡购买熟悉的公司，亚马逊是一个不错的投资选择。  
- 自 1997 年上市以来，亚马逊股价上涨超过 2255 倍，投资 1 万美元现值约 2250 万美元。  
- 尽管亚马逊面临竞争，但 AWS 和电商市场的增长潜力仍然存在。  

今天购买亚马逊股票能让你一生受益吗？