<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/AppLovin.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/AppLovin.jpg"/></p>
<p>AppLovin 的股价本月暴跌，结束了华尔街过去几个月最大的反弹之一。APP 股票跌至 290 美元，创下自 11 月 15 日以来的最低水平。今年最高点以来已下跌近 40%。那么，接下来这只股票会如何发展？</p>
<h2>为什么 AppLovin 的股价崩溃</h2>
<p>在过去两年中，AppLovin 一直是华尔街最耀眼的明星之一。这家鲜为人知的公司从 2023 年的 9.75 美元飙升至本月早些时候的 520 美元。这使其成为华尔街最大的公司之一，市值超过 2300 亿美元。</p>
<p>AppLovin 股价的持续崩溃符合我们的预期，我们在这里 <strong>、</strong> 这里 <strong>、</strong> 和这里 ** 中都有提到。</p>
<h3>APP 被高度高估</h3>
<p>AppLovin 股价暴跌的最重要原因是其被高度高估。尽管公司在增长，但无法证明 2300 亿美元的估值是合理的。</p>
<p>这是因为 AppLovin 在 2024 年的收入超过 47 亿美元，较去年同期的 32 亿美元大幅增长。AppLovin 的净收入从 2023 年的 3.56 亿美元跃升至 2024 年的 15.8 亿美元。</p>
<p>最近的财报显示，AppLovin 的收入从去年同期的 9.53 亿美元上升至 13.2 亿美元。其净收入从 4.76 亿美元上升至 8.48 亿美元。</p>
<p>分析师预计 AppLovin 的业务在今年将继续表现良好。平均预期是其第一季度收入将增长 30%，达到 13.8 亿美元，第二季度增长 30.90%，达到 14.1 亿美元。这一增长将导致年收入达到 58 亿美元，明年达到 70 亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管这些数字不错，但并不能证明 2300 亿美元的估值是合理的。这是因为这一估值使其 2026 年的前瞻市销率（P/S）达到 32，远高于大多数国家。</p>
<p>这个 P/S 数字意味着，如果今天收购该公司，假设其增长停止，投资者大约需要 32 年才能收回投资。由于该公司的前瞻市盈率为 50.5，收支平衡将需要超过 50 年。</p>
<h3>Wyckoff 理论解释了 AppLovin 股价崩溃</h3>
<p>AppLovin 股价崩溃的另一个原因被称为 Wyckoff 理论。</p>
<p>Wyckoff 是一个已有 90 年历史的理论，解释了资产价格随时间的变化。第一阶段被称为积累阶段，在这一阶段，资产保持在一个整合区间。投资者开始关注该公司，例如当其发布强劲的业绩时。</p>
<p>然后进入标记阶段，其特征是由于错失机会的恐惧（FOMO）加剧而出现抛物线式的上涨。自 2023 年底以来，AppLovin 的股票一直处于这一阶段。</p>
<p>下一个阶段被称为分配阶段，其特征是空头和多头之间的斗争。通常会出现一些大幅波动，因为多头在下跌时买入，而空头在每次反弹时卖出。</p>
<p>然后，AppLovin 的股票将进入标记下跌阶段，这发生在投资者之间出现恐慌性抛售时。</p>
<h3>AppLovin 股价技术分析</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2025/02/AppLovin-stock-1-1024x569.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2025/02/AppLovin-stock-1-1024x569.png"/></p>
<p>APP 图表来自 TradingView</p>
<p>周线图显示，APP 股价在今年达到 528 美元的峰值，现在已跌至 320 美元。它已跌破 38.2% 的斐波那契回撤水平，而所有振荡器均指向下方。</p>
<p>因此，APP 股价可能会继续下跌，卖家将目标锁定在 61.8% 的斐波那契回撤水平 200 美元，较当前水平下跌近 40%。</p>
<p>文章《AppLovin 股价崩溃如我们预测的那样：APP 接下来会如何？》最初发布在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>AppLovin 的股价大幅下跌，降至 290 美元，比今年的峰值下降了 40%。尽管公司收入增长，其估值曾飙升至 2300 亿美元，但现在被认为是高估的。分析师预测收入将继续增长，但当前的估值被认为是无法辩解的。股价的下跌与 Wyckoff 理论相符，表明从积累阶段转向降价阶段。技术分析显示可能会出现进一步下跌，潜在目标价为 200 美元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/AppLovin.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/AppLovin.jpg"/></p>
<p>AppLovin stock price has imploded this month, ending one of the biggest rallies in Wall Street in the past few months. APP shares plummeted to a low of $290, its lowest level since November 15. It has plunged by almost 40% from the highest point this year. So, what next for the stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AppLovin 的股价本月暴跌，结束了华尔街过去几个月最大的反弹之一。APP 股票跌至 290 美元，创下自 11 月 15 日以来的最低水平。今年最高点以来已下跌近 40%。那么，接下来这只股票会如何发展？</p>
</div><h2>Why AppLovin stock price crashed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 AppLovin 的股价崩溃</h2>
</div><p>AppLovin has been one of the brightest stars on Wall Street in the past two years. A company that was little known soared from $9.75 in 2023 to $520 earlier this month. This transitioned it into one of the biggest companies on Wall Street with a market cap of over $230 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两年中，AppLovin 一直是华尔街最耀眼的明星之一。这家鲜为人知的公司从 2023 年的 9.75 美元飙升至本月早些时候的 520 美元。这使其成为华尔街最大的公司之一，市值超过 2300 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The ongoing AppLovin stock crash was in line with our expectations, as we wrote here <strong>,</strong> here <strong>,</strong> and here <strong>.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AppLovin 股价的持续崩溃符合我们的预期，我们在这里 <strong>、</strong> 这里 <strong>、</strong> 和这里 ** 中都有提到。</p>
</div><h3>APP is highly overvalued</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>APP 被高度高估</h3>
</div><p>The most important reasons why the AppLovin stock price has plummeted is that it became highly overvalued. While the company is growing, there is no way to justify a $230 billion valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AppLovin 股价暴跌的最重要原因是其被高度高估。尽管公司在增长，但无法证明 2300 亿美元的估值是合理的。</p>
</div><p>That’s because AppLovin’ revenue in 2024 stood at over $4.7 billion, a big increase from the $3.2 billion that it made a year earlier. AppLovin’s net income jumped from $356 million in 2023 to $1.58 billion in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是因为 AppLovin 在 2024 年的收入超过 47 亿美元，较去年同期的 32 亿美元大幅增长。AppLovin 的净收入从 2023 年的 3.56 亿美元跃升至 2024 年的 15.8 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The most recent results showed that AppLovin’s revenue rose to $1.32 billion, up from $953 million in the same period a year earlier. Its net income rose from $476 million to $848 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的财报显示，AppLovin 的收入从去年同期的 9.53 亿美元上升至 13.2 亿美元。其净收入从 4.76 亿美元上升至 8.48 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect that AppLovin business will continue to do well this year. The average estimate is that its revenue will grow by 30% in the first quarter to $1.38 billion, followed by 30.90% in Q2 to $1.41 billion. This growth will lead to an annual revenue of $5.8 billion, followed by $7 billion next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计 AppLovin 的业务在今年将继续表现良好。平均预期是其第一季度收入将增长 30%，达到 13.8 亿美元，第二季度增长 30.90%，达到 14.1 亿美元。这一增长将导致年收入达到 58 亿美元，明年达到 70 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While these are good numbers, they don’t justify a $230 billion valuation. That’s because this valuation gives it a forward 2026 price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 32, which is much higher than most countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些数字不错，但并不能证明 2300 亿美元的估值是合理的。这是因为这一估值使其 2026 年的前瞻市销率（P/S）达到 32，远高于大多数国家。</p>
</div><p>This P/S figure simply means that one would take about 32 years to recover his investment if he acquired the company today, assuming that its growth stops. It would take over 50 years to breakevem since the firm has a forward P/E ratio of 50.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个 P/S 数字意味着，如果今天收购该公司，假设其增长停止，投资者大约需要 32 年才能收回投资。由于该公司的前瞻市盈率为 50.5，收支平衡将需要超过 50 年。</p>
</div><h3>Wyckoff Theory explains the AppLovin stock crash</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>Wyckoff 理论解释了 AppLovin 股价崩溃</h3>
</div><p>The other reason why the AppLovin share price has crashed is known as the Wyckoff Theory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AppLovin 股价崩溃的另一个原因被称为 Wyckoff 理论。</p>
</div><p>Wyckoff is a 90-year old theory that explains how asset price move over time. The first phae is known as accumulation, and in it, an asset remains in a consolidation. Investors then start to take note of the firm, such as when it publishes strong results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wyckoff 是一个已有 90 年历史的理论，解释了资产价格随时间的变化。第一阶段被称为积累阶段，在这一阶段，资产保持在一个整合区间。投资者开始关注该公司，例如当其发布强劲的业绩时。</p>
</div><p>It then moves to the markup phase, which is characterized by a parabolic move as the fear of missing out (FOMO) intensifies. AppLovin stock has been in this stage since late 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后进入标记阶段，其特征是由于错失机会的恐惧（FOMO）加剧而出现抛物线式的上涨。自 2023 年底以来，AppLovin 的股票一直处于这一阶段。</p>
</div><p>The next stage is known as distribution, and is characterized by a battle between bears and bulls. It typically has some big moves as bulls buy the dip and bears sell each rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一个阶段被称为分配阶段，其特征是空头和多头之间的斗争。通常会出现一些大幅波动，因为多头在下跌时买入，而空头在每次反弹时卖出。</p>
</div><p>AppLovin stock will then move to the markdown phase, which happens when there is a panic selling among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，AppLovin 的股票将进入标记下跌阶段，这发生在投资者之间出现恐慌性抛售时。</p>
</div><h3>AppLovin stock price technical analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>AppLovin 股价技术分析</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2025/02/AppLovin-stock-1-1024x569.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2025/02/AppLovin-stock-1-1024x569.png"/></p>
<p>APP chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>APP 图表来自 TradingView</p>
</div><p>The weekly chart shows that the APP share price peaked at $528 this year, and has now plunged to $320. It has moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level, while all oscillators have pointed downwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周线图显示，APP 股价在今年达到 528 美元的峰值，现在已跌至 320 美元。它已跌破 38.2% 的斐波那契回撤水平，而所有振荡器均指向下方。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the APP share price will likely keep falling as sellers target the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at $200, down by almost 40% from the current level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，APP 股价可能会继续下跌，卖家将目标锁定在 61.8% 的斐波那契回撤水平 200 美元，较当前水平下跌近 40%。</p>
</div><p>The post AppLovin stock price crashes as we predicted: what next for APP? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《AppLovin 股价崩溃如我们预测的那样：APP 接下来会如何？》最初发布在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

AppLovin 股价如我们预测般暴跌：APP 接下来会如何发展？