<p>截至目前，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -4.63%) 的股价已下跌 10%，其飞速上涨的势头遭遇了阻碍，尽管其芯片业务仍在不断创下纪录。第四季度的财报再次取得了显著成功——但投资者并没有庆祝，而是选择抛售股票。英伟达的股东是否厌倦了获胜，还是有更深层次的问题在作祟？让我们探讨一下未来 12 个月可能发生的事情。</p>
<h2>第四季度财报再次取得显著成功</h2>
<p>英伟达的投资者通常在财报日没有什么好担心的。该公司长期以来一直超出预期，2025 财年的第四季度（截至 1 月 26 日）也不例外。收入同比增长 78%，达到 393 亿美元，主要得益于数据中心业务的持续强劲表现，该业务销售用于运行和训练 AI 算法的图形处理单元（GPU）。这项技术正在迅速发展，英伟达经常升级其产品以促进增长并保持竞争优势。</p>
<p>该公司的最新 Blackwell GPU 将是其短期成功的关键。这些芯片价格昂贵，每个单元的价格在 3 万到 4 万美元之间。然而，与上一代硬件相比，它们在速度和能耗方面有显著提升，实际上可以为客户在管理与 AI 相关的工作负载时节省成本。</p>
<p>根据管理层的说法，英伟达已经实现了 Blackwell 的全面生产——在第四季度销售了价值 110 亿美元的产品，主要面向 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 等大型云服务提供商。</p>
<h2>存在的风险有哪些？</h2>
<p>尽管财报表现无可否认地强劲，英伟达的股价在财报日暴跌约 8.5%，这表明许多股东感到不安。这种担忧可能与指导预期有关。尽管管理层预计第一季度收入将增长至 430 亿美元（增长 65%），但他们预计毛利率将同比下降，从 78% 降至 70.6%。</p>
<p>毛利率下降表明竞争可能导致英伟达降低价格，这可能会导致盈利增长放缓。该公司面临来自其他 GPU 制造商的直接竞争，例如 <strong>超微半导体</strong>，其设计的 MI325X 旨在与英伟达的 Blackwell GPU 竞争。</p>
<p>然而，最显著的风险可能来自定制芯片。</p>
<p>定制芯片针对特定应用进行了优化，消除了不必要的组件，可能使其比英伟达的通用 GPU 更便宜且更节能。</p>
<p>虽然许多英伟达的客户已经在小规模使用定制芯片，但这一趋势可能会增长。今年 2 月，OpenAI（ChatGPT 的制造商）与 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 达成协议，设计了一款定制芯片，计划明年大规模生产，以减少对英伟达的依赖。即使竞争不挑战英伟达的市场份额，也可能通过使客户对价格更加敏感来削弱其定价能力和毛利率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk0MDYvbWFuLXNob2NrZWQtYXQtc3RvY2stcHJpY2VzLWludmVzdG9yLWFuYWx5c3QuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk0MDYvbWFuLXNob2NrZWQtYXQtc3RvY2stcHJpY2VzLWludmVzdG9yLWFuYWx5c3QuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>另一个威胁来自中国初创公司 DeepSeek，该公司使用英伟达的旧款 H800 芯片创建了一个竞争性的语言模型（LLM）。DeepSeek 的成就可能引发对英伟达最新硬件是否真的必要的质疑。</p>
<h2>今年股价增长的预期不高</h2>
<p>英伟达的市值为 2.9 万亿美元，即使在最佳情况下，股价增长的潜力也有限。越大的东西，移动它所需的力量就越大。尽管这家行业领先的芯片制造商可能会享受收入的增长，但随着客户转向定制芯片并重新评估他们在这一高度投机行业中投入的资金，其毛利率可能面临压力。</p>
<p>尽管如此，英伟达似乎仍然是一个不错的投资价值。其前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 28，尽管公司增长率优秀，但其股价与 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 的前瞻估计相符。这一估值已考虑了英伟达潜在的逆风，因此在宏观经济条件没有恶化的情况下，出现大幅崩盘的可能性不大。</p>

英伟达

<p>尽管第四季度的收益强劲，英伟达的股票年初至今已下跌 10%，其收入增长了 78%，达到 393 亿美元。对毛利率下降以及来自定制芯片和竞争对手如 AMD 的竞争加剧的担忧使投资者感到不安。尽管英伟达的增长潜力依然存在，但其庞大的市值限制了股价的增长。28 的前瞻市盈率表明股票估值合理，但来自竞争和宏观经济条件的风险可能会影响未来的表现</p>

<p>With shares down 10% year to date, <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s(NVDA -4.63%) rocket ship rally has hit a roadblock, even as its chip business continues to break records. Fourth-quarter earnings were yet another slam-dunk success -- but instead of celebrating, investors responded by selling the stock. Are Nvidia shareholders tired of winning, or is something deeper at play? Let's explore what the next 12 months could have in store.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -4.63%) 的股价已下跌 10%，其飞速上涨的势头遭遇了阻碍，尽管其芯片业务仍在不断创下纪录。第四季度的财报再次取得了显著成功——但投资者并没有庆祝，而是选择抛售股票。英伟达的股东是否厌倦了获胜，还是有更深层次的问题在作祟？让我们探讨一下未来 12 个月可能发生的事情。</p>
</div><h2>Fourth-quarter earnings were another slam dunk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第四季度财报再次取得显著成功</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia investors usually have nothing to fear on earnings day. The company has a long track record of beating expectations, and the fourth quarter for fiscal year 2025, which ended Jan. 26, was no exception. Revenue jumped 78% year over year to $39.3 billion, driven by continued strength in the data center segment, where it sells graphics processing units (GPUs) for running and training AI algorithms. This technology is rapidly evolving, and Nvidia frequently upgrades its offerings to boost growth and keep competition at bay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的投资者通常在财报日没有什么好担心的。该公司长期以来一直超出预期，2025 财年的第四季度（截至 1 月 26 日）也不例外。收入同比增长 78%，达到 393 亿美元，主要得益于数据中心业务的持续强劲表现，该业务销售用于运行和训练 AI 算法的图形处理单元（GPU）。这项技术正在迅速发展，英伟达经常升级其产品以促进增长并保持竞争优势。</p>
</div><p>The company's latest Blackwell GPUs will be the key to its near-term success. These chips are expensive, with a price tag between $30,000 and $40,000 per unit. However, with significant improvements in speed and energy use compared to previous-generation hardware, they can actually save clients money as they manage AI-related workloads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的最新 Blackwell GPU 将是其短期成功的关键。这些芯片价格昂贵，每个单元的价格在 3 万到 4 万美元之间。然而，与上一代硬件相比，它们在速度和能耗方面有显著提升，实际上可以为客户在管理与 AI 相关的工作负载时节省成本。</p>
</div><p>According to management, Nvidia has reached full-scale production of Blackwell -- selling $11 billion worth in the fourth quarter mainly to large cloud service providers like <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据管理层的说法，英伟达已经实现了 Blackwell 的全面生产——在第四季度销售了价值 110 亿美元的产品，主要面向 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 等大型云服务提供商。</p>
</div><h2>What are some of the risks?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>存在的风险有哪些？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the undeniably strong earnings, Nvidia's shares tanked around 8.5% on earnings day, suggesting many shareholders are getting jittery. The apprehension might be related to guidance. While management expects first-quarter revenue to grow to $43 billion (up 65%), they see gross margins declining from 78% to 70.6% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管财报表现无可否认地强劲，英伟达的股价在财报日暴跌约 8.5%，这表明许多股东感到不安。这种担忧可能与指导预期有关。尽管管理层预计第一季度收入将增长至 430 亿美元（增长 65%），但他们预计毛利率将同比下降，从 78% 降至 70.6%。</p>
</div><p>Falling margins suggest that competition may be causing Nvidia to lower its prices, which could lead to slower earnings growth. The company faces direct competition from other GPU makers, such as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, which has designed its MI325X to compete with Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率下降表明竞争可能导致英伟达降低价格，这可能会导致盈利增长放缓。该公司面临来自其他 GPU 制造商的直接竞争，例如 <strong>超微半导体</strong>，其设计的 MI325X 旨在与英伟达的 Blackwell GPU 竞争。</p>
</div><p>However, the most significant risk might be from custom chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最显著的风险可能来自定制芯片。</p>
</div><p>Custom chips are optimized for specific applications, eliminating unnecessary components and potentially making them cheaper and more energy-efficient than Nvidia's general-purpose GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>定制芯片针对特定应用进行了优化，消除了不必要的组件，可能使其比英伟达的通用 GPU 更便宜且更节能。</p>
</div><p>While many of Nvidia's clients already use custom chips in small numbers, this trend could grow. In February, OpenAI (the maker of ChatGPT) finalized its design with <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> for a custom chip with the goal of mass-producing it next year and reducing reliance on Nvidia. Even if competition doesn't challenge Nvidia's market share, it could hurt its pricing power and margins by making clients more price-sensitive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然许多英伟达的客户已经在小规模使用定制芯片，但这一趋势可能会增长。今年 2 月，OpenAI（ChatGPT 的制造商）与 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 达成协议，设计了一款定制芯片，计划明年大规模生产，以减少对英伟达的依赖。即使竞争不挑战英伟达的市场份额，也可能通过使客户对价格更加敏感来削弱其定价能力和毛利率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk0MDYvbWFuLXNob2NrZWQtYXQtc3RvY2stcHJpY2VzLWludmVzdG9yLWFuYWx5c3QuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809406%2Fman-shocked-at-stock-prices-investor-analyst.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Another threat comes from the Chinese start-up DeepSeek, which created a competitive large language model (LLM) using Nvidia's older H800 chips. DeepSeek's achievement could raise questions about whether Nvidia's latest hardware is even necessary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个威胁来自中国初创公司 DeepSeek，该公司使用英伟达的旧款 H800 芯片创建了一个竞争性的语言模型（LLM）。DeepSeek 的成就可能引发对英伟达最新硬件是否真的必要的质疑。</p>
</div><h2>Don't expect much stock price growth this year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今年股价增长的预期不高</h2>
</div><p>With a market cap of $2.9 trillion, Nvidia has limited potential for stock price growth, even in the best-case scenario. The larger something is, the more force is needed to move it. And while the industry-leading chipmaker will likely enjoy top-line expansion, its margins could face pressure as clients turn to custom chips and reevaluate the amount of money they are pouring into what remains a highly speculative industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的市值为 2.9 万亿美元，即使在最佳情况下，股价增长的潜力也有限。越大的东西，移动它所需的力量就越大。尽管这家行业领先的芯片制造商可能会享受收入的增长，但随着客户转向定制芯片并重新评估他们在这一高度投机行业中投入的资金，其毛利率可能面临压力。</p>
</div><p>That said, Nvidia still seems like a decent value. With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of just 28, shares are in line with the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong>'s forward estimate, despite the company's excellent growth rate. This valuation prices in much of Nvidia's potential headwinds, so a big crash looks unlikely, absent deterioration in macroeconomic conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，英伟达似乎仍然是一个不错的投资价值。其前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 28，尽管公司增长率优秀，但其股价与 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 的前瞻估计相符。这一估值已考虑了英伟达潜在的逆风，因此在宏观经济条件没有恶化的情况下，出现大幅崩盘的可能性不大。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 尽管英伟达第四季度营收同比增长 78% 至 393 亿美元，股价却下跌 10%。  
- 投资者对未来营收预期和利润率下降感到担忧，竞争加剧可能影响盈利能力。  
- 英伟达面临来自定制芯片和竞争对手的威胁，未来股价增长潜力有限。  

英伟达的股票在一年后会处于什么位置？