<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -2.84%) 计划在今年夏天在奥斯汀推出自己的机器人出租车服务。该服务将使用一支特斯拉自有的车辆车队，采用其第一版的无监督全自动驾驶 (FSD) 软件。</p>
<p>然而，特斯拉并不是今年夏天在奥斯汀唯一的自动驾驶打车服务。<strong>优步</strong>(UBER -2.07%) 的乘客也可能会乘坐到 <strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG -2.07%)(GOOGL -1.92%) 的 Waymo 车辆，这要归功于两家公司之间的合作。优步首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨希对特斯拉及其独立计划发出了警告。</p>
<p>“需求往往是相当不稳定的，” 科斯罗萨希在最近的一次会议上表示。这就是为什么即使是像字母表这样能够投入数十亿美元资本来建立自动驾驶车队的公司，也选择在多个城市与优步合作。优步相信，它已经解决了将自动驾驶服务推向市场的最大挑战。</p>
<p>根据多位华尔街分析师的说法，特斯拉当前的股票价值在很大程度上依赖于其能否成功实现自动驾驶和打车服务。因此，如果特斯拉在今年夏天最终推出自动驾驶车辆，这可能是一个生死攸关的时刻。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDkyNDgvdGVzbGEtNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1saW5lLWF0LWEtY2hhcmdpbmctc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDkyNDgvdGVzbGEtNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1saW5lLWF0LWEtY2hhcmdpbmctc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>启动打车服务的最大挑战</h2>
<p>对于特斯拉来说，投入一支车辆车队并制作一个供消费者呼叫打车的应用程序是非常简单的。但成功启动打车服务远不止于此。</p>
<p>首先，特斯拉需要推动该服务的需求。其次，它需要考虑供应方面的挑战，如定价、车队管理，甚至是将车辆调度到任何给定服务区域以使其广泛可用。</p>
<p>车队管理可能是风险最大的因素。汽车并不便宜，但如果特斯拉想要满足其服务的高峰需求，这意味着车队的大部分车辆将在非高峰时段闲置。特斯拉将不得不提前投入大量资本，希望需求最终能够增长到满足供应。</p>
<p>挑战的另一面是，如果特斯拉没有投入足够的车辆服务，而需求超过了供应，用户将会因等待时间而感到沮丧，并转向竞争服务寻找打车。那个应用程序很可能是优步。</p>
<p>与此同时，优步在其平台上已经拥有 1.71 亿月活跃用户。这远远超过了类似的应用程序，并且增长速度也快于较小的公司。其次，优步可以通过补充人类司机和动态调整定价来确保小型自动驾驶车队的高利用率，以平衡供需。</p>
<p>优步还将负责调度、定价和客户支持。优步为这些服务收取费用，但它提供的价值无疑是物有所值的。</p>
<h2>特斯拉投资者应该担心吗？</h2>
<p>对于特斯拉投资者来说，这里有几个考虑因素。</p>
<p>科斯罗萨希并不是一个公正的评论员。他认为与他的公司合作在新城市推出自动驾驶打车服务比独立行动更具经济意义，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p>如果特斯拉愿意投资必要的资本来投入一支能够满足高峰需求的车队，从长远来看可能会获得回报。埃隆·马斯克无疑擅长推动其产品的需求，而且有很多特斯拉粉丝虽然买不起特斯拉，但肯定愿意花几美元偶尔打车。</p>
<p>但这种做法存在重大风险，或许超过了许多投资者在考虑股票价格时所考虑的风险。当前股票交易价格超过前瞻性收益预期的 100 倍。这意味着市场对特斯拉的收益在其机器人出租车服务推出和扩展时加速增长有很高的预期。</p>
<p>Waymo 显然采取了更加保守的方式，缓慢地将其打车服务推广到新城市，并测试与优步的不同合作。在一个城市，它将把车辆出售给优步，优步将完全负责车队。在另一个城市，Waymo 将拥有车队，但通过优步应用程序投入服务。在其他城市，Waymo 将通过自己的应用程序直接提供打车服务（这些城市大多是其长期测试车辆的地方）。这种方法将帮助其找到扩展服务的最佳经济模式。</p>
<p>特斯拉的做法是高风险高回报，但这对特斯拉的股东来说并不是新领域。</p>

优步

特斯拉

<p>优步首席执行官达拉·科斯罗沙希警告特斯拉投资者，关于今年夏天在奥斯汀推出机器人出租车服务的挑战。尽管特斯拉计划使用无监督的全自动驾驶软件部署自己的车队，但优步已与 Waymo 合作提供自动驾驶乘车服务。科斯罗沙希强调了需求波动和车队管理的风险，指出优步的用户基础和运营专业知识可能使其具备优势。特斯拉的雄心勃勃的做法带来了重大风险，尤其是其高股票估值依赖于成功执行其自动驾驶服务</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -2.84%) is planning to launch its own robotaxi service in Austin this summer. The service will use a fleet of Tesla-owned vehicles employing the first version of its unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -2.84%) 计划在今年夏天在奥斯汀推出自己的机器人出租车服务。该服务将使用一支特斯拉自有的车辆车队，采用其第一版的无监督全自动驾驶 (FSD) 软件。</p>
</div><p>However, Tesla won't be the only autonomous vehicle ride-hailing service in Austin this summer. <strong>Uber</strong>(UBER -2.07%) riders may also find themselves inside one of <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG -2.07%)(GOOGL -1.92%) Waymo vehicles thanks to a partnership between the two companies. And Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has a warning for Tesla and its plans to go it alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特斯拉并不是今年夏天在奥斯汀唯一的自动驾驶打车服务。<strong>优步</strong>(UBER -2.07%) 的乘客也可能会乘坐到 <strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG -2.07%)(GOOGL -1.92%) 的 Waymo 车辆，这要归功于两家公司之间的合作。优步首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨希对特斯拉及其独立计划发出了警告。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Demand often is quite variable,&#34; Khosrowshahi said at a recent conference. That's why even a company that can afford to sink billions of dollars of capital into building an autonomous vehicle fleet like Alphabet has opted to partner with Uber in several cities. Uber believes it has already solved the biggest challenges of bringing an autonomous vehicle service to market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“需求往往是相当不稳定的，” 科斯罗萨希在最近的一次会议上表示。这就是为什么即使是像字母表这样能够投入数十亿美元资本来建立自动驾驶车队的公司，也选择在多个城市与优步合作。优步相信，它已经解决了将自动驾驶服务推向市场的最大挑战。</p>
</div><p>Much of Tesla's current stock value depends on getting autonomous driving and ride-sharing right, according to multiple Wall Street analysts. So, Tesla could have a make-or-break moment if it does finally launch autonomous vehicles this summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据多位华尔街分析师的说法，特斯拉当前的股票价值在很大程度上依赖于其能否成功实现自动驾驶和打车服务。因此，如果特斯拉在今年夏天最终推出自动驾驶车辆，这可能是一个生死攸关的时刻。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDkyNDgvdGVzbGEtNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1saW5lLWF0LWEtY2hhcmdpbmctc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809248%2Ftesla-4-teslas-in-a-line-at-a-charging-station.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>The biggest challenge in launching a ride-sharing service</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>启动打车服务的最大挑战</h2>
</div><p>It's very easy for Tesla to put a fleet of vehicles in service and make an app for consumers to call for a ride in one of those vehicles. But there's a lot more to successfully launching a ride-sharing service than that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于特斯拉来说，投入一支车辆车队并制作一个供消费者呼叫打车的应用程序是非常简单的。但成功启动打车服务远不止于此。</p>
</div><p>First of all, Tesla needs to drive demand for the service. Second, it needs to consider supply-side challenges like pricing, fleet management, and even routing the vehicles to make them broadly available to users in any given service area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，特斯拉需要推动该服务的需求。其次，它需要考虑供应方面的挑战，如定价、车队管理，甚至是将车辆调度到任何给定服务区域以使其广泛可用。</p>
</div><p>Fleet management may be the riskiest factor. Cars aren't cheap, but if Tesla wants to meet the peak demand for its service, that means large portions of the fleet will be sitting idle during off-peak hours. Tesla will have to invest significant capital upfront with the hope that demand eventually grows enough to meet supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>车队管理可能是风险最大的因素。汽车并不便宜，但如果特斯拉想要满足其服务的高峰需求，这意味着车队的大部分车辆将在非高峰时段闲置。特斯拉将不得不提前投入大量资本，希望需求最终能够增长到满足供应。</p>
</div><p>The other side of the challenge is if Tesla doesn't put enough vehicles in service and demand exceeds supply. Users will get frustrated by wait times and switch to competing services to find a ride. That app would be, in all likelihood, Uber.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挑战的另一面是，如果特斯拉没有投入足够的车辆服务，而需求超过了供应，用户将会因等待时间而感到沮丧，并转向竞争服务寻找打车。那个应用程序很可能是优步。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Uber already has 171 million monthly active users on its platform. That far exceeds similar apps, and it's growing faster than smaller companies, too. Second, Uber can ensure high utilization rates for a small autonomous vehicle fleet by supplementing those vehicles with human drivers and dynamically changing pricing to balance supply and demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，优步在其平台上已经拥有 1.71 亿月活跃用户。这远远超过了类似的应用程序，并且增长速度也快于较小的公司。其次，优步可以通过补充人类司机和动态调整定价来确保小型自动驾驶车队的高利用率，以平衡供需。</p>
</div><p>Uber will also take care of routing, pricing, and customer support. Uber charges a fee for those services, but the value it provides is arguably worth the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步还将负责调度、定价和客户支持。优步为这些服务收取费用，但它提供的价值无疑是物有所值的。</p>
</div><h2>Should Tesla investors worry?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉投资者应该担心吗？</h2>
</div><p>There are a couple of considerations here for Tesla investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于特斯拉投资者来说，这里有几个考虑因素。</p>
</div><p>Khosrowshahi isn't an unbiased commentator. It's no surprise he thinks partnering with his company to launch autonomous rides in a new city makes more economic sense than going it alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科斯罗萨希并不是一个公正的评论员。他认为与他的公司合作在新城市推出自动驾驶打车服务比独立行动更具经济意义，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>If Tesla is willing to invest the necessary capital to put a fleet in service that can meet peak demand, it could pay off in the long run. Elon Musk is certainly good at driving demand for his products, and there's no shortage of Tesla fans who can't afford to buy a Tesla but would certainly pay a few bucks to take a ride in one every now and then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果特斯拉愿意投资必要的资本来投入一支能够满足高峰需求的车队，从长远来看可能会获得回报。埃隆·马斯克无疑擅长推动其产品的需求，而且有很多特斯拉粉丝虽然买不起特斯拉，但肯定愿意花几美元偶尔打车。</p>
</div><p>But there's significant risk in the approach, and perhaps more than many investors are taking into account considering the stock price. Shares currently trade for more than 100 times forward earnings estimates. That means there's a high expectation that Tesla's earnings will accelerate as its robotaxi service launches and scales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这种做法存在重大风险，或许超过了许多投资者在考虑股票价格时所考虑的风险。当前股票交易价格超过前瞻性收益预期的 100 倍。这意味着市场对特斯拉的收益在其机器人出租车服务推出和扩展时加速增长有很高的预期。</p>
</div><p>Waymo is notably taking a much more conservative approach by slowly rolling out its ride-sharing service to new cities and testing different partnerships with Uber. In one city, it will sell the vehicles to Uber, which will be fully in charge of the fleet. In another, Waymo will own the fleet but put them in service through the Uber app. And in other cities, Waymo will offer rides directly through its own app (those cities are mostly those where it's been testing vehicles for a long time). This approach will help it find the best economics for scaling its service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Waymo 显然采取了更加保守的方式，缓慢地将其打车服务推广到新城市，并测试与优步的不同合作。在一个城市，它将把车辆出售给优步，优步将完全负责车队。在另一个城市，Waymo 将拥有车队，但通过优步应用程序投入服务。在其他城市，Waymo 将通过自己的应用程序直接提供打车服务（这些城市大多是其长期测试车辆的地方）。这种方法将帮助其找到扩展服务的最佳经济模式。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's approach is high-risk and high-reward, but that's not new territory for Tesla shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的做法是高风险高回报，但这对特斯拉的股东来说并不是新领域。</p>
</div>

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi Just Gave Tesla Investors a Stark Warning

- 特斯拉计划在奥斯汀推出机器人出租车服务，使用自有车辆和 FSD 软件。  
- 优步与 Waymo 合作，提供自动驾驶打车服务，面临需求波动风险。  
- 特斯拉的成功依赖于满足需求和有效管理车队，投资风险较大。  

优步 CEO Dara Khosrowshahi 刚刚向特斯拉投资者发出了一个严厉的警告