<p>尽管近期股市波动加剧，华尔街主要股指——<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>——自 2022 年 10 月触底以来几乎势不可挡。</p>
<p>推动这三大指数屡创新高的牛市反弹是由多种因素共同促成的。这包括对唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫的兴奋（在特朗普的第一任期内，股市飙升）、股票拆分的狂热以及超出预期的企业盈利。但在股市催化剂的首位，人工智能（AI）的出现无疑是最重要的。</p>
<p>人工智能赋予软件和系统推理、行动和进化的能力，而无需人类干预。这种在指定任务上变得更高效以及随着时间推移学习新技能的能力，使得这项技术具有惊人的影响力和几乎无法估量的可寻址市场。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>尽管有数十只股票受益于人工智能的崛起，但没有哪两家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -8.69%）和数据挖掘专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.77%）更直接受益。在各自的高峰期，英伟达在不到两年的时间里市值增加了超过 3 万亿美元，而 Palantir 的股票在过去两年中上涨了超过 1500%。</p>
<p>虽然这两家公司的运营结果显示出巨大的潜力，但英伟达和 Palantir 的内部交易活动却发出了强烈的信号。</p>
<h2>英伟达和 Palantir 的内部人士向投资者发出潜在的强烈警告</h2>
<p>得益于互联网，股市比以往任何时候都更加自由和公平。无论你是华尔街的专业人士，还是将第一笔 500 美元投入股市的普通投资者，你都可以轻松访问收入报表、资产负债表和投资者演示文稿。</p>
<p>投资者还可以轻松获取的另一项信息是内部交易活动，这有时能讲述一个引人注目的故事。这里所说的 “内部人士” 主要是指高层管理人员和公司的董事会成员——即那些最了解公司表现好坏的人——但也包括持有公司 10%（或更高）股份的受益所有者。</p>
<p>上市公司的内部人士必须在交易后不超过两个工作日内向证券交易委员会提交 4 号表格。换句话说，如果管理团队或董事会的某位成员购买或出售其公司的股票，投资者将相对迅速地得知这一消息。</p>
<p>英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 的内部人士通过他们的交易活动发出了强烈的警告——投资者是时候更加关注了。</p>
<p>截至 2025 年 2 月底的过去五年中，内部人士出售了超过 38 亿美元的英伟达股票，自 2020 年 9 月首次公开募股以来，Palantir 的累计销售额接近 69 亿美元。</p>
<p>更令人瞩目的是，自 Palantir 上市以来，没有一位董事或高管购买过该公司的股票。与此同时，英伟达内部人士的最后一次公开市场购买来自首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯，时间是 2020 年 12 月。</p>
<p>公平地说，内部人士的出售并不一定是坏事。高管薪酬有时会严重依赖于基于股票的补偿。在这种情况下，内部人士行使期权和/或出售普通股以筹集支付联邦/州税款所需的资金。</p>
<p>但尽管有多种理由出售上市公司的股票，购买股票的唯一合理理由是：投资者相信价格将会上涨。Palantir 管理团队和董事会完全没有内部购买的迹象，以及英伟达内部人士超过四年的公开市场购买缺失，充分说明了这两家人工智能领军企业的现状。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么英伟达和 Palantir 的内部人士拒绝进行公开市场购买？</h2>
<p>如果投资于这些公司的股东有任何好消息，那就是有明确证据表明股票期权驱动了至少部分的出售活动。期权需要在到期之前行使，出售股票是内部人士筹集资金以支付税款的简单方式。这种类型的出售是无害的，不应该让华尔街或普通投资者感到担忧。</p>
<p>或许更紧迫的问题是，为什么内部人士不进行公开市场购买？</p>
<p>一种可能性是，历史并不支持在扩张初期的下一个重大创新。尽管英伟达的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）的订单异常强劲，Palantir 的 AI 驱动的 Gotham 平台也持续赢得美国政府的多年合同，但过去三十年没有任何颠覆性创新能够避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
<p>换句话说，投资者通常会高估潜在颠覆性技术和创新的初始采用率和主流实用性。无论英伟达和 Palantir 迄今为止的收入增长多么令人印象深刻，所有创新，包括人工智能，都需要足够的时间来成熟。</p>
<p>当对下一个重大趋势的高期望未能实现时，领先的公司往往受到最严重的打击。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，正如历史所示，英伟达和 Palantir 的股价可能会显著下跌。</p>
<p>英伟达和 Palantir 面临的另一个主要问题是各自的估值。</p>
<p>尽管传统的市盈率（P/E）是大多数投资者用来判断价值的快速简便工具，但对于像英伟达和 Palantir 这样的高增长公司来说，它并不特别有效。相反，市销率（P/S）则显示出英伟达和 Palantir 的相对估值与历史标准的差距有多大。</p>
<p>去年夏天，英伟达的过去 12 个月市销率一度超过 42。至于 Palantir，其最近股价飙升至每股 125 美元，使其市销率接近 100！历史上，处于下一个重大趋势前沿的上市公司通常在市销率达到 30 到 40 的水平时达到顶峰。简而言之，这两家公司似乎都没有提供可持续的估值溢价。</p>
<p>英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 的内部人士发出了警告，但是否有投资者愿意倾听？</p>

英伟达

PLTR

<p>英伟达和 Palantir 的内部交易活动引发了投资者的担忧，因为内部人士分别出售了超过 38 亿美元和 69 亿美元的股票，而近期没有任何购买。这一趋势表明，尽管这两家公司受益于人工智能的繁荣，但对未来股票表现缺乏信心。虽然内部人士的出售可能与基于股票的薪酬有关，但高管缺乏公开市场购买的情况值得注意。投资者不禁质疑这种不愿意购买股票的原因，尤其是在英伟达产品需求强劲和 Palantir 政府合同的背景下</p>

<p>Despite some recent volatility in equities, Wall Street's major stock indexes -- the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> -- have been virtually unstoppable since bottoming out in October 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管近期股市波动加剧，华尔街主要股指——<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>——自 2022 年 10 月触底以来几乎势不可挡。</p>
</div><p>The bull market rally that's led all three indexes to numerous record-closing highs has been fueled by a confluence of factors. This includes excitement surrounding Donald Trump's return to the White House (stocks soared during Trump's first term), stock-split euphoria, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. But at the tippy-top of the list of stock market catalysts is the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动这三大指数屡创新高的牛市反弹是由多种因素共同促成的。这包括对唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫的兴奋（在特朗普的第一任期内，股市飙升）、股票拆分的狂热以及超出预期的企业盈利。但在股市催化剂的首位，人工智能（AI）的出现无疑是最重要的。</p>
</div><p>AI empowers software and systems with the ability to reason, act, and evolve, without the need for human intervention. This capacity to become more proficient at assigned tasks, as well as evolve to learn new skills over time, gives this technology jaw-dropping reach and an almost unfathomable addressable market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能赋予软件和系统推理、行动和进化的能力，而无需人类干预。这种在指定任务上变得更高效以及随着时间推移学习新技能的能力，使得这项技术具有惊人的影响力和几乎无法估量的可寻址市场。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809556%2Fsilver-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-volume-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Although dozens of stocks have benefited from the rise of AI, no two companies have been more direct beneficiaries than semiconductor colossus <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -8.69%) and data-mining specialist <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -1.77%). At their respective peaks, Nvidia tacked on well over $3 trillion in market cap in under two years, while Palantir's stock jumped more than 1,500% on a trailing-two-year basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有数十只股票受益于人工智能的崛起，但没有哪两家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -8.69%）和数据挖掘专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.77%）更直接受益。在各自的高峰期，英伟达在不到两年的时间里市值增加了超过 3 万亿美元，而 Palantir 的股票在过去两年中上涨了超过 1500%。</p>
</div><p>While the operating results for both companies suggest plenty of promise, insider activity for Nvidia and Palantir speaks volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这两家公司的运营结果显示出巨大的潜力，但英伟达和 Palantir 的内部交易活动却发出了强烈的信号。</p>
</div><h2>Insiders at Nvidia and Palantir offer a potentially deafening warning to investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达和 Palantir 的内部人士向投资者发出潜在的强烈警告</h2>
</div><p>Thanks to the internet, the stock market is freer and fairer than it's ever been. Whether you're a Wall Street professional or an everyday investor putting your first $500 to work in the stock market, you have the ability to access income statements, balance sheets, and investor presentations at the click of a button.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于互联网，股市比以往任何时候都更加自由和公平。无论你是华尔街的专业人士，还是将第一笔 500 美元投入股市的普通投资者，你都可以轻松访问收入报表、资产负债表和投资者演示文稿。</p>
</div><p>Something else that's readily available to investors, and can, on occasion, tell quite the story is insider trading activity. By &#34;insiders,&#34; I'm primarily referring to high-ranking executives and a company's board of directors -- i.e., the people who would intimately know how well or poorly a company is performing -- but it also includes beneficial owners with a 10% (or greater) stake in a company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还可以轻松获取的另一项信息是内部交易活动，这有时能讲述一个引人注目的故事。这里所说的 “内部人士” 主要是指高层管理人员和公司的董事会成员——即那些最了解公司表现好坏的人——但也包括持有公司 10%（或更高）股份的受益所有者。</p>
</div><p>Insiders of a publicly traded company are required to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission no later than two business days after a transaction. In other words, if someone on a management team or board acquires or disposes of their company's stock, investors are going to know about it relatively quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上市公司的内部人士必须在交易后不超过两个工作日内向证券交易委员会提交 4 号表格。换句话说，如果管理团队或董事会的某位成员购买或出售其公司的股票，投资者将相对迅速地得知这一消息。</p>
</div><p>The insiders at Nvidia and Palantir Technologies have been creating a deafening roar with their trading activity -- and it's time investors paid closer attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 的内部人士通过他们的交易活动发出了强烈的警告——投资者是时候更加关注了。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing-five-year period, as of the end of February 2025, insiders sold more than $3.8 billion worth of Nvidia stock, and are closing in on $6.9 billion in cumulative sales of Palantir stock since its September 2020 initial public offering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 2 月底的过去五年中，内部人士出售了超过 38 亿美元的英伟达股票，自 2020 年 9 月首次公开募股以来，Palantir 的累计销售额接近 69 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>What's even more eye-popping is that there hasn't been a single director or executive who's purchased shares of Palantir since it went public. Meanwhile, the last open-market purchase from an Nvidia insider came from Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress in December 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人瞩目的是，自 Palantir 上市以来，没有一位董事或高管购买过该公司的股票。与此同时，英伟达内部人士的最后一次公开市场购买来自首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯，时间是 2020 年 12 月。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, insider selling isn't automatically a bad thing. Executive pay can sometimes be heavily weighted to stock-based compensation. In instances like this, insiders exercise options and/or sell common stock to raise the capital needed to pay their federal/state tax bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，内部人士的出售并不一定是坏事。高管薪酬有时会严重依赖于基于股票的补偿。在这种情况下，内部人士行使期权和/或出售普通股以筹集支付联邦/州税款所需的资金。</p>
</div><p>But while there are a multitude of reasons to sell shares of a public company, there's only one viable reason to buy stock: an investor believes the price will head higher. A complete lack of insider buying from Palantir's management team and board of directors, along with a greater-than-four-year absence of open-market purchases from Nvidia's insiders, speaks volumes for both AI leaders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管有多种理由出售上市公司的股票，购买股票的唯一合理理由是：投资者相信价格将会上涨。Palantir 管理团队和董事会完全没有内部购买的迹象，以及英伟达内部人士超过四年的公开市场购买缺失，充分说明了这两家人工智能领军企业的现状。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809556%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why are Nvidia's and Palantir's insiders refusing to make open-market purchases?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么英伟达和 Palantir 的内部人士拒绝进行公开市场购买？</h2>
</div><p>If there's a silver lining for shareholders invested in these companies, it's that there's clear evidence of stock options driving at least some of this selling activity. Options need to be exercised prior to their expiration, and selling shares is an easy way for insiders to raise the capital necessary to foot their tax bill. This type of selling is benign and shouldn't concern Wall Street or everyday investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投资于这些公司的股东有任何好消息，那就是有明确证据表明股票期权驱动了至少部分的出售活动。期权需要在到期之前行使，出售股票是内部人士筹集资金以支付税款的简单方式。这种类型的出售是无害的，不应该让华尔街或普通投资者感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the more pressing question to address is why aren't insiders making open-market purchases?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许更紧迫的问题是，为什么内部人士不进行公开市场购买？</p>
</div><p>One possibility is that history doesn't favor next-big-thing innovations during the early innings of their expansion. While orders for Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) have been exceptionally strong, and Palantir's AI-driven Gotham platform has consistently won multiyear contracts from the U.S. government, no game-changing innovation has avoided a bubble-bursting event for three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一种可能性是，历史并不支持在扩张初期的下一个重大创新。尽管英伟达的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）的订单异常强劲，Palantir 的 AI 驱动的 Gotham 平台也持续赢得美国政府的多年合同，但过去三十年没有任何颠覆性创新能够避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
</div><p>Put another way, investors commonly overestimate the initial adoption rate and mainstream utility of potentially game-changing technologies and innovations. Regardless of how impressive the revenue ramp has been for Nvidia and Palantir to this point, all innovations, including AI, need ample time to mature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，投资者通常会高估潜在颠覆性技术和创新的初始采用率和主流实用性。无论英伟达和 Palantir 迄今为止的收入增长多么令人印象深刻，所有创新，包括人工智能，都需要足够的时间来成熟。</p>
</div><p>When lofty expectations for next-big-thing trends aren't met, the companies that led the charge tend to be hit the hardest. If the AI bubble bursts, as history suggests will happen, Nvidia and Palantir could see their respective share prices head notably lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当对下一个重大趋势的高期望未能实现时，领先的公司往往受到最严重的打击。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，正如历史所示，英伟达和 Palantir 的股价可能会显著下跌。</p>
</div><p>The other prevailing issue for Nvidia and Palantir is their respective valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和 Palantir 面临的另一个主要问题是各自的估值。</p>
</div><p>Though the traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the quick-and-easy tool relied on by most investors to judge value, it doesn't work particularly well for high-growth companies like Nvidia and Palantir. Instead, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio demonstrates just how far outside of historic norms Nvidia's and Palantir's relative valuations have been.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管传统的市盈率（P/E）是大多数投资者用来判断价值的快速简便工具，但对于像英伟达和 Palantir 这样的高增长公司来说，它并不特别有效。相反，市销率（P/S）则显示出英伟达和 Palantir 的相对估值与历史标准的差距有多大。</p>
</div><p>Last summer, Nvidia's trailing-12-month P/S ratio briefly tipped the scales at north of 42. As for Palantir, it's recent run-up to $125 per share put its P/S ratio on the doorstep of 100! Throughout history, public companies on the leading edge of a next-big-thing trend have commonly peaked with a P/S ratio in the neighborhood of 30 to 40. In short, neither company appears to offer a sustainable valuation premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年夏天，英伟达的过去 12 个月市销率一度超过 42。至于 Palantir，其最近股价飙升至每股 125 美元，使其市销率接近 100！历史上，处于下一个重大趋势前沿的上市公司通常在市销率达到 30 到 40 的水平时达到顶峰。简而言之，这两家公司似乎都没有提供可持续的估值溢价。</p>
</div><p>Insiders at Nvidia and Palantir Technologies are sounding a warning, but are any investors willing to listen?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 的内部人士发出了警告，但是否有投资者愿意倾听？</p>
</div>

Insider Activity at Nvidia and Palantir Speaks Volumes -- but Are Investors Willing to Listen?

- 华尔街主要股指自 2022 年 10 月以来持续上涨，受多重因素推动。  
- Nvidia 和 Palantir 的内部人士在过去五年内大量抛售股票，未见买入。  
- 若 AI 泡沫破裂，两家公司股价可能显著下跌，估值也超出历史正常水平。  

英伟达和 Palantir Tech 的内部活动说明了很多问题——但投资者愿意倾听吗？