<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.69%）2025 财年第四季度（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日）的财报上周震撼了市场，周四主要指数出现抛售，随后周五反弹。</p>
<p>截至 3 月 2 日，英伟达年初至今下跌 7%，表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数（^GSPC -1.22%）的 1.2% 涨幅。考虑到英伟达在 2023 年至 2024 年底之间增长超过 800%，投资者可能会觉得增长股的回调是自然而然的。但有很多原因表明，英伟达的估值比其股价图表所暗示的要便宜得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk2Mjkvc3VycHJpc2Utc21hcnRwaG9uZS1uZXdzLXN0b2NrLXNob2NrLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk2Mjkvc3VycHJpc2Utc21hcnRwaG9uZS1uZXdzLXN0b2NrLXNob2NrLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达的估值已下降</h2>
<p>市盈率（P/E）是一个众所周知的财务指标，它将股票价格与每股收益（EPS）相除。市盈率显示了投资者为公司相对于其收益所支付的倍数。市盈率越高，基于过去收益，股票就越昂贵。</p>
<p>市盈率在分析具有一致商业模式和稳定增长率的公司时非常有用，尤其是像 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>家得宝</strong>、<strong>可口可乐</strong> 等蓝筹公司。但对于尚未盈利、盈利不稳定或正在经历重大转型的公司（如英伟达），这一指标的实用性就会降低。</p>
<p>英伟达的股价近年来大幅上涨，但其收益也随之增加。该公司的增长速度如此之快，以至于其估值实际上变得更便宜。尤其是在过去九个月左右，因为英伟达的股价基本保持不变，而其收益却持续飙升。</p>
<p>英伟达的市盈率已降至 42.5——这可能看起来很高，因为标准普尔 500 的市盈率为 29.8。但由于英伟达的收益仍在快速增长，其前瞻市盈率（基于分析师对未来 12 个月的共识预期）仅为 27.8——这意味着如果英伟达的股价在一年内没有变动，并且达到了预期，其估值将与标准普尔 500 相当。</p>
<h2>爆炸性增长</h2>
<p>英伟达在很大程度上依赖于向 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、微软、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等超大规模客户销售图形处理单元（GPU）。这一最新发展导致英伟达的销售、营业收入和利润率呈指数级增长。</p>
<p>正如下表所示，英伟达的收入在五年内几乎增长了八倍，但营业收入增长超过 18 倍。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2021 财年</th>
<th>2022 财年</th>
<th>2023 财年</th>
<th>2024 财年</th>
<th>2025 财年</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$16.7</td>
<td>$26.9</td>
<td>$27</td>
<td>$60.9</td>
<td>$130.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>营业收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$4.5</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$5.6</td>
<td>$33</td>
<td>$81.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>净收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$4.3</td>
<td>$9.8</td>
<td>$4.4</td>
<td>$29.8</td>
<td>$72.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>利润率</td>
<td>26%</td>
<td>36.2%</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>48.9%</td>
<td>55.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>稀释每股收益</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$0.39</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$1.19</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：英伟达，YCharts。</p>
<p>在 2025 财年，英伟达将每美元收入中超过 55 美分转化为净收入——这一令人难以置信的利润率在如此规模的公司中实属罕见。</p>
<p>几乎任何股票在公司每年收入和收益翻倍或三倍时都是便宜的。但当半导体行业出现周期性放缓时会发生什么？或者如果英伟达的一些最大客户减少资本支出？或者如果运行复杂人工智能（AI）模型所需的计算能力减少，导致 GPU 需求下降？或者如果竞争对手以更低的成本提出强有力的解决方案，从而侵蚀英伟达的利润率？</p>
<p>每个企业都面临不确定性。英伟达当然也有其风险。但它也有很多机会。引用英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在最近的财报电话会议上的话：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>像 OpenAI、Grok 3、DeepSeek-R1 这样的模型是应用推理时间缩放的推理模型。推理模型可以消耗 100 倍的计算能力。未来的推理模型可能会消耗更多的计算能力。DeepSeek-R1 点燃了全球的热情。这是一个出色的创新。但更重要的是，它开源了一个世界级的推理 AI 模型。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>总之，英伟达对像 DeepSeek 这样的新推理模型感到鼓舞，而不是受到威胁。英伟达对 AI 在数字世界之外扩展到机器人、物理 AI 开发、自动驾驶汽车等领域的潜力非常乐观。总的来说，英伟达未来可能会减少对超大规模客户的依赖。</p>
<h2>收益增长对估值的影响</h2>
<p>购买英伟达股票是对不同终端市场和使用案例中持续 AI 采用的押注。随着时间的推移，英伟达的增长率和利润率可能会下降，因为 AI 行业变得更加成熟，并且因为快速增长一个庞大企业比一个小企业更困难。</p>
<p>但即使英伟达的收益增长在未来 10 年放缓至 15% 的年复合增长率，股票仍然是一个极好的买入机会。作为参考，分析师共识预期英伟达在 2026 财年每股收益将增长至$4.49，在 2027 财年将增长至$5.72——分别为 52.7% 和 27.3% 的增长率。因此，收益增长在短期内不太可能放缓至每年 20%。</p>
<p>不过，让我们假设 10 年内的收益增长率为 20%。假设你只想以 25 倍的市盈率购买该股票。在这些假设下，股票价格将会是什么样子。作为参考，英伟达在撰写本文时的股价为$124.81。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>财政 2025</th>
<th>财政 2026</th>
<th>财政 2027</th>
<th>财政 2028</th>
<th>财政 2029</th>
<th>财政 2030</th>
<th>财政 2031</th>
<th>财政 2032</th>
<th>财政 2033</th>
<th>财政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$3.53</td>
<td>$4.23</td>
<td>$5.08</td>
<td>$6.10</td>
<td>$7.32</td>
<td>$8.78</td>
<td>$10.53</td>
<td>$12.64</td>
<td>$15.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票价格</td>
<td>$73.50</td>
<td>$88.25</td>
<td>$105.75</td>
<td>$127</td>
<td>$152.50</td>
<td>$183</td>
<td>$219.50</td>
<td>$263.25</td>
<td>$316</td>
<td>$379.22</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>作者图表。注意：股票价格是基于支付 25 倍收益的计算，并假设其他条件不变。</p>
<p>现在，假设分析师的共识预估对于财政 2026 和财政 2027 是正确的，但之后的八年内收益仅以 15% 的复合年增长率增长。而且投资者只愿意支付 Nvidia 收益的 20 倍。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>财政 2025</th>
<th>财政 2026</th>
<th>财政 2027</th>
<th>财政 2028</th>
<th>财政 2029</th>
<th>财政 2030</th>
<th>财政 2031</th>
<th>财政 2032</th>
<th>财政 2033</th>
<th>财政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>$5.72</td>
<td>$6.58</td>
<td>$7.56</td>
<td>$8.70</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$11.51</td>
<td>$13.24</td>
<td>$15.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票价格</td>
<td>$58.80</td>
<td>$89.80</td>
<td>$114.40</td>
<td>$131.60</td>
<td>$151.20</td>
<td>$174</td>
<td>$200</td>
<td>$230.20</td>
<td>$264.80</td>
<td>$304.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>作者图表。注意：股票价格是基于支付 20 倍收益的计算，并假设其他条件不变。</p>
<p>即使在增长急剧放缓和市盈率收缩至仅 20 倍收益的情况下，Nvidia 在 10 年内仍将是一只 300 美元的股票。</p>
<p>这个练习展示了收益增长的力量，以及一个高溢价股票如何比初看起来更具价值。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 具备超长期持有的潜力</h2>
<p>投资者常常被短期因素所困扰，比如公司是否能达到季度预期或经济状况如何。</p>
<p>但对于 Nvidia 来说，增长是如此爆炸性，即使放缓和市盈率收缩，股票在长期内仍可能产生可观的收益。如果超大规模客户减少支出，Nvidia 在机器人、自动化等其他终端市场仍有巨大的潜力。</p>
<p>综合来看，Nvidia 在风险与潜在回报之间的平衡使其显得过于便宜，无法忽视。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票今年迄今已下跌 7%，表现不及标准普尔 500 指数。尽管如此，由于其快速的盈利增长，英伟达的估值似乎更具吸引力，市盈率为 42.5，预期市盈率为 27.8。该公司经历了显著的收入和营业收入增长，主要得益于向大型科技公司销售 GPU。尽管面临潜在的行业放缓和竞争等风险，英伟达对人工智能未来的应用持乐观态度，暗示未来有强劲的增长潜力</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 1.69%) fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended Jan. 26, 2025) earnings report rocked markets last week, with a sell-off in the major indexes on Thursday followed by a rebound on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.69%）2025 财年第四季度（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日）的财报上周震撼了市场，周四主要指数出现抛售，随后周五反弹。</p>
</div><p>As of March 2, Nvidia is down 7% year to date, underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index's (^GSPC -1.22%) 1.2% gain. Given Nvidia's over 800% increase between 2023 and the end of 2024, investors may feel a pullback in the growth stock is only natural. But there are plenty of reasons why Nvidia is surprisingly cheaper than a chart of its stock price would suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 3 月 2 日，英伟达年初至今下跌 7%，表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数（^GSPC -1.22%）的 1.2% 涨幅。考虑到英伟达在 2023 年至 2024 年底之间增长超过 800%，投资者可能会觉得增长股的回调是自然而然的。但有很多原因表明，英伟达的估值比其股价图表所暗示的要便宜得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk2Mjkvc3VycHJpc2Utc21hcnRwaG9uZS1uZXdzLXN0b2NrLXNob2NrLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809629%2Fsurprise-smartphone-news-stock-shock-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation has come down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的估值已下降</h2>
</div><p>The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a well-known financial metric that divides a stock's price by earnings per share (EPS). The P/E ratio shows the multiple investors are paying for a company relative to its earnings. The higher the P/E ratio, the more expensive the stock based on trailing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率（P/E）是一个众所周知的财务指标，它将股票价格与每股收益（EPS）相除。市盈率显示了投资者为公司相对于其收益所支付的倍数。市盈率越高，基于过去收益，股票就越昂贵。</p>
</div><p>The P/E ratio is helpful when analyzing companies with consistent business models and rangebound growth rates, especially blue chip companies like <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Home Depot</strong>, <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, etc. But the metric can be a little less useful for companies that aren't yet profitable, are inconsistently profitable, or are undergoing a major transformation -- like Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率在分析具有一致商业模式和稳定增长率的公司时非常有用，尤其是像 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>家得宝</strong>、<strong>可口可乐</strong> 等蓝筹公司。但对于尚未盈利、盈利不稳定或正在经历重大转型的公司（如英伟达），这一指标的实用性就会降低。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's stock price has risen significantly in recent years, but so have its earnings. The company is growing so quickly that its valuation has actually gotten cheaper. This is especially true over the last nine months or so because Nvidia's stock price has stayed roughly the same while its earnings continue to soar higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的股价近年来大幅上涨，但其收益也随之增加。该公司的增长速度如此之快，以至于其估值实际上变得更便宜。尤其是在过去九个月左右，因为英伟达的股价基本保持不变，而其收益却持续飙升。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's P/E ratio has come down to 42.5 -- which may seem high given the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 is 29.8. But since Nvidia is still growing earnings rapidly, its forward P/E ratio, which is based on analyst consensus estimates for the next 12 months, is just 27.8 -- meaning that if Nvidia's stock price didn't move for a year, and it met estimates, it would have a valuation around the same as the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的市盈率已降至 42.5——这可能看起来很高，因为标准普尔 500 的市盈率为 29.8。但由于英伟达的收益仍在快速增长，其前瞻市盈率（基于分析师对未来 12 个月的共识预期）仅为 27.8——这意味着如果英伟达的股价在一年内没有变动，并且达到了预期，其估值将与标准普尔 500 相当。</p>
</div><h2>Explosive growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>爆炸性增长</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia heavily depends on graphics processing unit (GPU) sales to hyperscalers like <strong>Amazon</strong>, Microsoft, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>. This recent development has led to exponential growth in Nvidia sales, operating income, and profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在很大程度上依赖于向 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、微软、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等超大规模客户销售图形处理单元（GPU）。这一最新发展导致英伟达的销售、营业收入和利润率呈指数级增长。</p>
</div><p>As you can see in the following table, Nvidia's revenue is up nearly eight-fold in five years, but operating income has increased over 18-fold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下表所示，英伟达的收入在五年内几乎增长了八倍，但营业收入增长超过 18 倍。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Fiscal 2021</th>
<th>Fiscal 2022</th>
<th>Fiscal 2023</th>
<th>Fiscal 2024</th>
<th>Fiscal 2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue (billions)</td>
<td>$16.7</td>
<td>$26.9</td>
<td>$27</td>
<td>$60.9</td>
<td>$130.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Operating income (billions)</td>
<td>$4.5</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$5.6</td>
<td>$33</td>
<td>$81.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Net income (billions)</td>
<td>$4.3</td>
<td>$9.8</td>
<td>$4.4</td>
<td>$29.8</td>
<td>$72.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Profit margin</td>
<td>26%</td>
<td>36.2%</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>48.9%</td>
<td>55.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Diluted EPS</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$0.39</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$1.19</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2021 财年</th>
<th>2022 财年</th>
<th>2023 财年</th>
<th>2024 财年</th>
<th>2025 财年</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$16.7</td>
<td>$26.9</td>
<td>$27</td>
<td>$60.9</td>
<td>$130.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>营业收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$4.5</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$5.6</td>
<td>$33</td>
<td>$81.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>净收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$4.3</td>
<td>$9.8</td>
<td>$4.4</td>
<td>$29.8</td>
<td>$72.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>利润率</td>
<td>26%</td>
<td>36.2%</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>48.9%</td>
<td>55.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>稀释每股收益</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$0.39</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$1.19</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data sources: Nvidia, YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：英伟达，YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In fiscal 2025, Nvidia converted over 55 cents of every dollar in revenue into net income -- an unbelievable profit margin that is simply unheard of for a company of its size.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 财年，英伟达将每美元收入中超过 55 美分转化为净收入——这一令人难以置信的利润率在如此规模的公司中实属罕见。</p>
</div><p>Virtually any stock is cheap if the company keeps doubling or tripling revenue and earnings yearly. But what happens when there's a cyclical slowdown in the semiconductor industry? Or if some of Nvidia's largest customers pull back on capital expenditures? Or if less computing power is needed to run complex artificial intelligence (AI) models, leading to lower GPU demand? Or if a competitor comes up with a formidable solution at a lower cost that erodes Nvidia's margins?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几乎任何股票在公司每年收入和收益翻倍或三倍时都是便宜的。但当半导体行业出现周期性放缓时会发生什么？或者如果英伟达的一些最大客户减少资本支出？或者如果运行复杂人工智能（AI）模型所需的计算能力减少，导致 GPU 需求下降？或者如果竞争对手以更低的成本提出强有力的解决方案，从而侵蚀英伟达的利润率？</p>
</div><p>Every business faces uncertainties. And Nvidia certainly has its fair share of risk. But it also has plenty of opportunities, too. To quote Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the recent earnings call:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个企业都面临不确定性。英伟达当然也有其风险。但它也有很多机会。引用英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在最近的财报电话会议上的话：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Models like OpenAI, Grok 3, DeepSeek-R1 are reasoning models that apply inference time scaling. Reasoning models can consume 100x more compute. Future reasoning models can consume much more compute. DeepSeek-R1 has ignited global enthusiasm. It's an excellent innovation. But even more importantly, it has open-sourced a world-class reasoning AI model.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>像 OpenAI、Grok 3、DeepSeek-R1 这样的模型是应用推理时间缩放的推理模型。推理模型可以消耗 100 倍的计算能力。未来的推理模型可能会消耗更多的计算能力。DeepSeek-R1 点燃了全球的热情。这是一个出色的创新。但更重要的是，它开源了一个世界级的推理 AI 模型。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In sum, Nvidia is encouraged, not threatened, by newer reasoning models like DeepSeek. Nvidia is also very optimistic about the potential for AI to expand beyond the digital world into robotics, physical AI development, autonomous vehicles, and more. All told, there's potential for Nvidia to be less dependent on hyperscalers in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，英伟达对像 DeepSeek 这样的新推理模型感到鼓舞，而不是受到威胁。英伟达对 AI 在数字世界之外扩展到机器人、物理 AI 开发、自动驾驶汽车等领域的潜力非常乐观。总的来说，英伟达未来可能会减少对超大规模客户的依赖。</p>
</div><h2>The impact of earnings growth on valuation over time</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益增长对估值的影响</h2>
</div><p>Buying Nvidia stock is a bet on continued AI adoption across different end markets and use cases. Over time, Nvidia's growth rate and margins will probably come down as AI becomes a more mature industry and because it is harder to grow a massive business as quickly as a smaller one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>购买英伟达股票是对不同终端市场和使用案例中持续 AI 采用的押注。随着时间的推移，英伟达的增长率和利润率可能会下降，因为 AI 行业变得更加成熟，并且因为快速增长一个庞大企业比一个小企业更困难。</p>
</div><p>But even if Nvidia's earnings growth slows to a compound annual growth rate of, say, 15% over the next 10 years, the stock is still a phenomenal buy. For context, consensus analyst estimates have Nvidia growing EPS to $4.49 in fiscal 2026 and then $5.72 in fiscal 2027 -- growth rates of 52.7% and 27.3%, respectively. So, earnings growth isn't expected to slow down to 20% per year anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使英伟达的收益增长在未来 10 年放缓至 15% 的年复合增长率，股票仍然是一个极好的买入机会。作为参考，分析师共识预期英伟达在 2026 财年每股收益将增长至$4.49，在 2027 财年将增长至$5.72——分别为 52.7% 和 27.3% 的增长率。因此，收益增长在短期内不太可能放缓至每年 20%。</p>
</div><p>Still, let's pencil in a 20% earnings growth rate over 10 years. And let's say you only want to pay 25 times earnings for the stock. Here's what the stock price would look like under those assumptions. For context, Nvidia is $124.81 per share at the time of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，让我们假设 10 年内的收益增长率为 20%。假设你只想以 25 倍的市盈率购买该股票。在这些假设下，股票价格将会是什么样子。作为参考，英伟达在撰写本文时的股价为$124.81。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Fiscal 2025</th>
<th>Fiscal 2026</th>
<th>Fiscal 2027</th>
<th>Fiscal 2028</th>
<th>Fiscal 2029</th>
<th>Fiscal 2030</th>
<th>Fiscal 2031</th>
<th>Fiscal 2032</th>
<th>Fiscal 2033</th>
<th>Fiscal 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$3.53</td>
<td>$4.23</td>
<td>$5.08</td>
<td>$6.10</td>
<td>$7.32</td>
<td>$8.78</td>
<td>$10.53</td>
<td>$12.64</td>
<td>$15.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stock price</td>
<td>$73.50</td>
<td>$88.25</td>
<td>$105.75</td>
<td>$127</td>
<td>$152.50</td>
<td>$183</td>
<td>$219.50</td>
<td>$263.25</td>
<td>$316</td>
<td>$379.22</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>财政 2025</th>
<th>财政 2026</th>
<th>财政 2027</th>
<th>财政 2028</th>
<th>财政 2029</th>
<th>财政 2030</th>
<th>财政 2031</th>
<th>财政 2032</th>
<th>财政 2033</th>
<th>财政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$3.53</td>
<td>$4.23</td>
<td>$5.08</td>
<td>$6.10</td>
<td>$7.32</td>
<td>$8.78</td>
<td>$10.53</td>
<td>$12.64</td>
<td>$15.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票价格</td>
<td>$73.50</td>
<td>$88.25</td>
<td>$105.75</td>
<td>$127</td>
<td>$152.50</td>
<td>$183</td>
<td>$219.50</td>
<td>$263.25</td>
<td>$316</td>
<td>$379.22</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Chart by author. Note: Stock Price is a calculation based on paying 25x earnings and assumes all else is equal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者图表。注意：股票价格是基于支付 25 倍收益的计算，并假设其他条件不变。</p>
</div><p>Now, let's assume analyst consensus estimates are correct for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027, but then earnings grow at just a 15% compound annual growth rate for eight years after that. And that an investor only wants to pay 20 times Nvidia's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，假设分析师的共识预估对于财政 2026 和财政 2027 是正确的，但之后的八年内收益仅以 15% 的复合年增长率增长。而且投资者只愿意支付 Nvidia 收益的 20 倍。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Fiscal 2025</th>
<th>Fiscal 2026</th>
<th>Fiscal 2027</th>
<th>Fiscal 2028</th>
<th>Fiscal 2029</th>
<th>Fiscal 2030</th>
<th>Fiscal 2031</th>
<th>Fiscal 2032</th>
<th>Fiscal 2033</th>
<th>Fiscal 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>$5.72</td>
<td>$6.58</td>
<td>$7.56</td>
<td>$8.70</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$11.51</td>
<td>$13.24</td>
<td>$15.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stock price</td>
<td>$58.80</td>
<td>$89.80</td>
<td>$114.40</td>
<td>$131.60</td>
<td>$151.20</td>
<td>$174</td>
<td>$200</td>
<td>$230.20</td>
<td>$264.80</td>
<td>$304.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>财政 2025</th>
<th>财政 2026</th>
<th>财政 2027</th>
<th>财政 2028</th>
<th>财政 2029</th>
<th>财政 2030</th>
<th>财政 2031</th>
<th>财政 2032</th>
<th>财政 2033</th>
<th>财政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>$5.72</td>
<td>$6.58</td>
<td>$7.56</td>
<td>$8.70</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$11.51</td>
<td>$13.24</td>
<td>$15.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票价格</td>
<td>$58.80</td>
<td>$89.80</td>
<td>$114.40</td>
<td>$131.60</td>
<td>$151.20</td>
<td>$174</td>
<td>$200</td>
<td>$230.20</td>
<td>$264.80</td>
<td>$304.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Chart by author. Note: Stock Price is a calculation based on paying 20x earnings and assumes all else is equal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者图表。注意：股票价格是基于支付 20 倍收益的计算，并假设其他条件不变。</p>
</div><p>Even with a steep slowdown in growth and a multiple contraction to just 20 times earnings, Nvidia would still be a $300 stock in 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在增长急剧放缓和市盈率收缩至仅 20 倍收益的情况下，Nvidia 在 10 年内仍将是一只 300 美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>This exercise shows the power of earnings growth and how a premium-priced stock can be a better value than it appears at first glance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个练习展示了收益增长的力量，以及一个高溢价股票如何比初看起来更具价值。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia has the makings of an ultra-long-term holding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 具备超长期持有的潜力</h2>
</div><p>Too often, investors get bogged down by near-term factors, like whether a company will hit its quarterly projections or how the economy is doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者常常被短期因素所困扰，比如公司是否能达到季度预期或经济状况如何。</p>
</div><p>But with Nvidia, the growth is so explosive that even a slowdown and a multiple contraction could still mean the stock will produce sizable gains over the long term. If hyperscalers pull back on spending, Nvidia still has tons of potential in other end markets like robotics, automation, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于 Nvidia 来说，增长是如此爆炸性，即使放缓和市盈率收缩，股票在长期内仍可能产生可观的收益。如果超大规模客户减少支出，Nvidia 在机器人、自动化等其他终端市场仍有巨大的潜力。</p>
</div><p>Add it all up, and Nvidia's balance between risk and potential reward makes it simply too cheap to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，Nvidia 在风险与潜在回报之间的平衡使其显得过于便宜，无法忽视。</p>
</div>

This Key Metric Shows Why Nvidia Stock Is Too Cheap to Ignore

- Nvidia 第四季度财报引发市场波动，股价年初至今下跌 7%。
- 公司市盈率降至 42.5，未来市盈率为 27.8，显示出相对便宜。
- Nvidia 依赖 GPU 销售，未来有望在多个领域实现增长。

这个关键指标显示了为什么英伟达的股票便宜得令人无法忽视