<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.92%) 一直以来都是最佳的长期投资之一。自 1999 年以来，股价已上涨超过 285,000%，使公司的市值达到了万亿美元级别。英伟达估值飙升的原因是人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
<p>但英伟达并不是唯一受益于人工智能支出这一巨大顺风的公司。从长远来看，还有另一家芯片制造商可能会对英伟达构成威胁。与英伟达的股票不同，这家相对较小的竞争对手并没有被定价为完美，这意味着耐心的投资者可能会从快速的长期增长率和折扣估值中受益。</p>
<h2>人工智能支出将超出许多人的预期</h2>
<p>几乎每个人都意识到近年来人工智能创新的飞跃。ChatGPT 网站每月接收数十亿的访问量，该公司的首席运营官最近透露，活跃的月用户超过 4 亿，而几个月前仅为 3 亿。令人惊讶的是，这一增长发生在 ChatGPT 面临来自其他人工智能模型（如 DeepSeek）的激烈竞争之际，后者也获得了数亿的新用户。</p>
<p>但所有这些增长仍然是在终端用户方面。目前，企业对人工智能的采用也在迅速增加，尽管美国企业的整体采用率仍低于 10%。这为长期增长提供了巨大的空间。就像互联网早期一样，这种颠覆性技术的最终力量和普遍性可能很难被高估。</p>
<p>考虑一下全球咨询公司麦肯锡的最新研究。该公司认为，仅生成性人工智能就可能为商业采用带来 2.6 万亿到 4.4 万亿美元的经济影响。到 2040 年，预计人工智能软件和服务的收入将达到 1.5 万亿到 4.6 万亿美元，而 2022 年仅为 850 亿美元。简单来说，人工智能革命的速度和规模可能会超出大多数人的预期。</p>
<p>这对英伟达来说是个好消息。其图形处理单元（GPU）——使人工智能服务和应用得以存在的关键组件——被认为是行业中最好的，赋予公司在人工智能 GPU 市场中 70% 到 95% 的市场份额。但正如之前的芯片战争所示，市场份额在长时间内会有所变化，英伟达的主导地位可能不会永远持续。但即使如此，市场仍然有足够的空间可供销售。</p>
<p>所有这些都使得下面的公司在今天市值远小于英伟达的情况下，仍然拥有光明的未来。</p>
<h2>超越英伟达的一个原因是超微半导体</h2>
<p>这将是一个非常困难的壮举，但如果让我在未来十年内选择一家能够与英伟达匹敌的公司，那就是 <strong>超微半导体</strong>(NASDAQ: AMD)。目前，该公司在技术能力和供应商锁定方面处于严重劣势。但它正在进行所有正确的投资，以便在长期内竞争。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e909d4a09731402219fec9cb09feb20.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e909d4a09731402219fec9cb09feb20.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>目前，AMD 的市场价值仅为英伟达的一小部分。而且在市盈率等倍数方面，其估值也明显较低。但尽管面临这些逆风，该公司仍然设法继续增加其研发预算。该预算目前约占其收入基础的 25%。而英伟达的预算虽然在绝对值上更大，但仅占其销售基础的 10%。</p>
<p>AMD 持续的投资使其能够推出下一代游戏图形卡，如 Radeon RX 9000 系列卡。但这也使其能够逐步追赶英伟达的人工智能 GPU。MI325X 芯片的推出将使其能够更直接地与英伟达的 Blackwell 芯片竞争，管理层最近指出，将加快产品发布计划，以每年发布新芯片的方式更好地竞争并抓住人工智能芯片需求激增的机会。</p>
<p>在接下来的七年里，AMD 会超越英伟达吗？英伟达自身的爆炸性增长表明这是可能的。但这将是一条漫长而艰难的道路。幸运的是，该公司继续在新产品上进行再投资，这些努力应该会在终端市场需求不断上升的情况下获得长期回报。在英伟达估值的一小部分下，AMD 是耐心的增长投资者的一个很好的投机选择。</p>

<p>一项预测表明，先进微电子公司（AMD）在未来七年内有可能与英伟达的市场价值相抗衡，这得益于对人工智能技术日益增长的需求。尽管英伟达目前主导着人工智能 GPU 市场，但 AMD 正在增加其研发投资，并推出具有竞争力的产品，如 MI325X 芯片。预计人工智能领域将实现显著增长，经济影响的估计可达到 4.4 万亿美元。与英伟达相比，AMD 的估值较低，使其成为寻求人工智能芯片市场增长机会的长期投资者的一个有吸引力的选择</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.92%) has been one of the best long-term investments of all time. Since 1999, shares have increased in value by more than 285,000%, pushing the company's market capitalization into the trillions of dollars. The cause of Nvidia's soaring valuation has been the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.92%) 一直以来都是最佳的长期投资之一。自 1999 年以来，股价已上涨超过 285,000%，使公司的市值达到了万亿美元级别。英伟达估值飙升的原因是人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
</div><p>But Nvidia isn't the only company exposed to the massive tailwind that is AI spending. Long term, there's another chipmaker that could end up giving Nvidia a run for its money. And unlike Nvidia's stock, this relatively small competitor isn't priced for perfection, meaning patient investors could benefit from both rapid long-term growth rates and a discounted valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但英伟达并不是唯一受益于人工智能支出这一巨大顺风的公司。从长远来看，还有另一家芯片制造商可能会对英伟达构成威胁。与英伟达的股票不同，这家相对较小的竞争对手并没有被定价为完美，这意味着耐心的投资者可能会从快速的长期增长率和折扣估值中受益。</p>
</div><h2>AI spending will be bigger than many expect</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能支出将超出许多人的预期</h2>
</div><p>Nearly everyone is well aware of the leap in AI innovation that has occurred in recent years. The ChatGPT website receives several billion visitors every month, and the company's COO recently revealed that it has more than 400 million active monthly users, up from around 300 million just a few months ago. Amazingly, this growth occurred even as ChatGPT faced heavy competition from other AI models like DeepSeek, which itself has gained hundreds of millions of new users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几乎每个人都意识到近年来人工智能创新的飞跃。ChatGPT 网站每月接收数十亿的访问量，该公司的首席运营官最近透露，活跃的月用户超过 4 亿，而几个月前仅为 3 亿。令人惊讶的是，这一增长发生在 ChatGPT 面临来自其他人工智能模型（如 DeepSeek）的激烈竞争之际，后者也获得了数亿的新用户。</p>
</div><p>But all of this growth is still on the end-user side. Right now, there's also a huge uptake in AI adoption among businesses, although adoption rates overall for businesses in the U.S. remain under 10%. That provides a huge runway for long-term growth. And just like in the internet's early days, the ultimate power and pervasiveness of this paradigm-shifting technology will likely be hard to overestimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但所有这些增长仍然是在终端用户方面。目前，企业对人工智能的采用也在迅速增加，尽管美国企业的整体采用率仍低于 10%。这为长期增长提供了巨大的空间。就像互联网早期一样，这种颠覆性技术的最终力量和普遍性可能很难被高估。</p>
</div><p>Consider the latest research from global consultancy McKinsey &amp; Co. Generative AI alone, the firm believes, could produce $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in economic impact from business adoption alone. By 2040, it believes revenue from AI software and services will reach $1.5 to $4.6 trillion, up from just $85 billion in 2022. Put simply, the pace and scale of the AI revolution will likely be even greater than most predict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑一下全球咨询公司麦肯锡的最新研究。该公司认为，仅生成性人工智能就可能为商业采用带来 2.6 万亿到 4.4 万亿美元的经济影响。到 2040 年，预计人工智能软件和服务的收入将达到 1.5 万亿到 4.6 万亿美元，而 2022 年仅为 850 亿美元。简单来说，人工智能革命的速度和规模可能会超出大多数人的预期。</p>
</div><p>That's great news for Nvidia. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) -- critical components that make it possible for AI services and applications to exist -- are considered the best in the business, granting the company a market share somewhere between 70% and 95% for AI GPUs. But as previous chip wars have demonstrated, market shares vary over long stretches of time, and Nvidia's dominant position may not last forever. But even if it does, there should be plenty of market to sell into.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对英伟达来说是个好消息。其图形处理单元（GPU）——使人工智能服务和应用得以存在的关键组件——被认为是行业中最好的，赋予公司在人工智能 GPU 市场中 70% 到 95% 的市场份额。但正如之前的芯片战争所示，市场份额在长时间内会有所变化，英伟达的主导地位可能不会永远持续。但即使如此，市场仍然有足够的空间可供销售。</p>
</div><p>All that gives the company below a bright future despite a dramatically smaller market cap versus Nvidia today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都使得下面的公司在今天市值远小于英伟达的情况下，仍然拥有光明的未来。</p>
</div><h2>One reason Advanced Micro Devices could overtake Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超越英伟达的一个原因是超微半导体</h2>
</div><p>It will be a very difficult feat, but if I had to pick one company to match Nvidia's size within a decade from now it would be <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(NASDAQ: AMD). The company is at a steep disadvantage right now in terms of technological capabilities and vendor lock-in. But it is making all the right investments to compete over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将是一个非常困难的壮举，但如果让我在未来十年内选择一家能够与英伟达匹敌的公司，那就是 <strong>超微半导体</strong>(NASDAQ: AMD)。目前，该公司在技术能力和供应商锁定方面处于严重劣势。但它正在进行所有正确的投资，以便在长期内竞争。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e909d4a09731402219fec9cb09feb20.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e909d4a09731402219fec9cb09feb20.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Right now, AMD's market value is a small fraction of Nvidia's. And its valuation, at least in terms of multiples like the price-to-sales ratio, is considerably smaller as well. But the company has managed to continue upping its research and development budget despite these headwinds. That budget is around 25% of its revenue base right now. Nvidia's, while larger on an absolute basis, totals just 10% of its sales base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，AMD 的市场价值仅为英伟达的一小部分。而且在市盈率等倍数方面，其估值也明显较低。但尽管面临这些逆风，该公司仍然设法继续增加其研发预算。该预算目前约占其收入基础的 25%。而英伟达的预算虽然在绝对值上更大，但仅占其销售基础的 10%。</p>
</div><p>AMD's continued investments are allowing it to launch next-gen graphics cards for gaming like its Radeon RX 9000 series cards. But its also allowing it to slowly catch up with Nvidia for AI GPUs. The launch of its MI325X chips will allow it to compete more directly with Nvidia's Blackwell chips, and management recently noted that it will be accelerating its product schedule to release new chips on an annual schedule to better compete and capitalize on the boom in demand for AI chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMD 持续的投资使其能够推出下一代游戏图形卡，如 Radeon RX 9000 系列卡。但这也使其能够逐步追赶英伟达的人工智能 GPU。MI325X 芯片的推出将使其能够更直接地与英伟达的 Blackwell 芯片竞争，管理层最近指出，将加快产品发布计划，以每年发布新芯片的方式更好地竞争并抓住人工智能芯片需求激增的机会。</p>
</div><p>Will AMD overtake Nvidia over the next seven years? Nvidia's own explosive rise has shown that it's possible. But it will be a long, difficult road. Fortunately, the company continues to reinvest in new products, efforts that should be rewarded long term given continually rising end-market demand. At a fraction of Nvidia's valuation, AMD is a great speculative bet for patient growth investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下来的七年里，AMD 会超越英伟达吗？英伟达自身的爆炸性增长表明这是可能的。但这将是一条漫长而艰难的道路。幸运的是，该公司继续在新产品上进行再投资，这些努力应该会在终端市场需求不断上升的情况下获得长期回报。在英伟达估值的一小部分下，AMD 是耐心的增长投资者的一个很好的投机选择。</p>
</div>

Bold Prediction: 1 Stock That Could Be Worth More Than Nvidia 7 Years From Now

- Nvidia 自 1999 年以来股价上涨超过 285,000%，市值达万亿美元。  
- AI 支出将推动长期增长，预计到 2040 年相关收入将达 1.5 至 4.6 万亿美元。  
- AMD 正在加大研发投入，可能在未来十年内与 Nvidia 竞争。  

大胆预测：一只股票可能在 7 年后价值超过 Nvidia