<p>我不会对你们隐瞒：上周对于太空投资者来说是一个相当沮丧的时刻。</p>
<p>在周四的连续发展中，我们首先得知一台无人驾驶的 Nova-C 月球着陆器试图在月球南极着陆。但它在一个陨石坑内翻倒，侧卧着，最终在缺乏阳光供给其太阳能电池的情况下安静地死去。</p>
<p>几个小时后，SpaceX 的 Starship 第八次飞行测试以一场火球结束，第二级（现在被 Elon Musk 称为 “飞船”）在上升过程中失去控制，自我毁灭，再次将加勒比海淹没在太空碎片中。</p>
<p>可以说，最糟糕的是，这两起事件似乎是过去太空新闻的几乎完全重复。上一次 Nova-C 着陆器也在着陆时翻倒。而之前的 Starship 测试飞行也以火球结束。</p>
<p>投资者对接连的失败并不感到兴奋，今天正在重新评估太空股票对他们投资组合的风险程度。截至周一东部时间上午 11 点：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong>(RKLB -10.60%) 的股票下跌了 7.5%。</li>
<li><strong>Planet Labs</strong>(PL -10.39%) 下跌了 8.7%。</li>
<li>而 <strong>AST SpaceMobile</strong>(ASTS -12.54%) 的表现最差：下跌了 9.3%。</li>
</ul>
<h2>华尔街依然看涨</h2>
<p>不过，并非所有消息都是坏的。Rocket Lab 今天实际上收到了一个好消息，投资银行 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 将这家小型火箭制造商的目标股价上调了超过 10%，至每股 20 美元，正如 TheFly.com 所报道的。</p>
<p>自从公司在 10 天前报告财报并调整其新型 Neutron 中型运载火箭的首次发射时间从 2025 年中期推迟到下半年以来，Rocket Lab 的股票下跌了大约 15%——其中一半的跌幅发生在今天。</p>
<p>不过，摩根士丹利正确指出，这似乎只是时间表上的相对适度的延迟，呼应了 Rocket Lab 首席执行官 Peter Beck 的评论，即如果有延迟，也 “不会很重要”。</p>
<p>因此，摩根士丹利的新目标股价暗示，跌幅将会迅速回升，预计在接下来的 12 个月内回升 15%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2MTIvcmVkLWFuZC13aGl0ZS1yb2NrZXQtbGF1bmNoZXMtYW5kLWNyYXNoZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2MTIvcmVkLWFuZC13aGl0ZS1yb2NrZXQtbGF1bmNoZXMtYW5kLWNyYXNoZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>太空是困难的，太空股票是有风险的</h2>
<p>我同意摩根士丹利的观点，Rocket Lab 所描述的延迟似乎并不值得担忧。制造火箭是困难的，让它们飞行正常而不爆炸更是困难，正如我们上周看到的 SpaceX 事件。</p>
<p>更重要的是，即使是设计完美、飞行完美的火箭也不总是能按时发射。客户可能会延迟准备他们的有效载荷，燃料管线和其他地面支持系统的问题可能导致最后时刻的取消，天气也不总是配合。</p>
<p>如果 Neutron 没有在 7 月发射（如所希望的那样），而是在 8 月、9 月甚至 10 月发射，这在大局上并不会是个大问题。</p>
<p>不过，我担心的是，许多太空股票的股价可能并未反映出这些企业更严重问题的风险。</p>
<p>例如，Rocket Lab、AST SpaceMobile 和 Planet Labs 目前都没有盈利。这三家公司都在烧钱。在这三家公司中，Rocket Lab 看起来最接近成为一个可行的企业，华尔街分析师预测一旦 Neutron 的开发成本降低，产生的收入增加，明年将实现正的自由现金流。而 Rocket Lab 在公认会计原则下的首次盈利预计将在 2027 年到来。</p>
<p>分析师也预测 AST SpaceMobile 在 2027 年将实现自由现金流和正收益。但由于该公司仍处于初创阶段，收入微乎其微，我怀疑他们目前是否真的有足够的硬数据来证明这一预测——尤其是考虑到该公司完成建设和发射其卫星群所需的巨额现金需求。</p>
<p>与此同时，Planet Labs 的股票看起来无疑是最具风险的，没有分析师愿意公开预测该公司何时能实现盈利。尽管有这些担忧，该股票在过去一年上涨了 80%，Rocket Lab 的股票上涨了 320%，而 AST 的股票几乎上涨了 1000%。</p>
<p>投资者今天对估值产生第二次思考，并对这三只非常成功的股票进行了一些抛售，这在我看来是合理的。</p>

ASTS

摩根士丹利

RKLB

<p>太空股票在经历了两次重大失败后面临下滑：Nova-C 月球着陆器在着陆时翻倒，SpaceX 的 Starship 测试以火球结束。因此，Rocket Lab、Planet Labs 和 AST SpaceMobile 等股票都出现了下跌。尽管如此，摩根士丹利提高了 Rocket Lab 的目标股价，暗示潜在的复苏。然而，关于这些公司的盈利能力和现金消耗仍然存在担忧，Rocket Lab 看起来最接近可行性。总体而言，投资者在这些挫折中重新评估与太空股票相关的风险</p>

<p>I won't sugarcoat this for you: Last week was a pretty depressing time to be a space investor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不会对你们隐瞒：上周对于太空投资者来说是一个相当沮丧的时刻。</p>
</div><p>In back-to-back developments Thursday, we learned first that an unmanned Nova-C lunar lander tried to touch down on the moon's South Pole. But it toppled over within a crater, fell on its side, and died a quiet death deprived of sunlight for its solar cells.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周四的连续发展中，我们首先得知一台无人驾驶的 Nova-C 月球着陆器试图在月球南极着陆。但它在一个陨石坑内翻倒，侧卧着，最终在缺乏阳光供给其太阳能电池的情况下安静地死去。</p>
</div><p>A few hours later, the eighth flight test of the SpaceX Starship ended in a fireball when the second stage (now being called just the &#34;Ship&#34; by Elon Musk, head of Space X) lost control on ascent and self-destructed, once again showering the Caribbean in space debris.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几个小时后，SpaceX 的 Starship 第八次飞行测试以一场火球结束，第二级（现在被 Elon Musk 称为 “飞船”）在上升过程中失去控制，自我毁灭，再次将加勒比海淹没在太空碎片中。</p>
</div><p>Arguably worst of all, both these incidents seemed to be near-identical repeats of past space news. The last Nova-C lander also toppled over on landing. And the previous Starship test flight also ended in a fireball.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以说，最糟糕的是，这两起事件似乎是过去太空新闻的几乎完全重复。上一次 Nova-C 着陆器也在着陆时翻倒。而之前的 Starship 测试飞行也以火球结束。</p>
</div><p>Investors aren't thrilled with the back-to-back failures and today are reevaluating precisely how risky space stocks might be for their portfolios. As of 11 a.m. ET on Monday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对接连的失败并不感到兴奋，今天正在重新评估太空股票对他们投资组合的风险程度。截至周一东部时间上午 11 点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong>(RKLB -10.60%) stock is down 7.5%.</li>
<li><strong>Planet Labs</strong>(PL -10.39%) is off 8.7%</li>
<li>And <strong>AST SpaceMobile</strong>(ASTS -12.54%) is doing worst of all: down 9.3%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong>(RKLB -10.60%) 的股票下跌了 7.5%。</li>
<li><strong>Planet Labs</strong>(PL -10.39%) 下跌了 8.7%。</li>
<li>而 <strong>AST SpaceMobile</strong>(ASTS -12.54%) 的表现最差：下跌了 9.3%。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Wall Street remains bullish</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街依然看涨</h2>
</div><p>Now, it's not all bad news. Rocket Lab actually got a bit of good news today when analysts at the investment bank <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> raised their price target on the small rocket maker by more than 10%, to $20 a share, as TheFly.com reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，并非所有消息都是坏的。Rocket Lab 今天实际上收到了一个好消息，投资银行 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 将这家小型火箭制造商的目标股价上调了超过 10%，至每股 20 美元，正如 TheFly.com 所报道的。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Rocket Lab are down about 15% -- half of which happened just today -- since the company reported earnings 10 days ago and tweaked its timeline for the first launch of its new Neutron medium-lift vehicle from mid-2025 to the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从公司在 10 天前报告财报并调整其新型 Neutron 中型运载火箭的首次发射时间从 2025 年中期推迟到下半年以来，Rocket Lab 的股票下跌了大约 15%——其中一半的跌幅发生在今天。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley correctly points out, though, that this seems no more than a relatively modest delay in the timeline, echoing comments from Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck that any delay, if there even is one, will be &#34;not very material.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，摩根士丹利正确指出，这似乎只是时间表上的相对适度的延迟，呼应了 Rocket Lab 首席执行官 Peter Beck 的评论，即如果有延迟，也 “不会很重要”。</p>
</div><p>Accordingly, Morgan Stanley's new price target implies that what went down is going to go right back up, gaining back 15% within the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，摩根士丹利的新目标股价暗示，跌幅将会迅速回升，预计在接下来的 12 个月内回升 15%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2MTIvcmVkLWFuZC13aGl0ZS1yb2NrZXQtbGF1bmNoZXMtYW5kLWNyYXNoZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F810612%2Fred-and-white-rocket-launches-and-crashes.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Space is hard, and space stocks are risky</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>太空是困难的，太空股票是有风险的</h2>
</div><p>I agree with Morgan Stanley that the delay Rocket Lab describes seems like nothing to worry about. Building rockets is hard, and getting them to fly right and not explode is even harder, as we saw with SpaceX last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同意摩根士丹利的观点，Rocket Lab 所描述的延迟似乎并不值得担忧。制造火箭是困难的，让它们飞行正常而不爆炸更是困难，正如我们上周看到的 SpaceX 事件。</p>
</div><p>What's more, even perfectly designed and perfectly flown rockets don't always fly on time. Customers may be late in getting their payloads ready for launch, issues with fuel lines and other ground support systems can cause last-minute scrubs, and the weather doesn't always cooperate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，即使是设计完美、飞行完美的火箭也不总是能按时发射。客户可能会延迟准备他们的有效载荷，燃料管线和其他地面支持系统的问题可能导致最后时刻的取消，天气也不总是配合。</p>
</div><p>If Neutron isn't launched in July (as was hoped), and ends up taking off in August, September, or even October, that's not going to be a big deal in the grand scheme of things.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Neutron 没有在 7 月发射（如所希望的那样），而是在 8 月、9 月甚至 10 月发射，这在大局上并不会是个大问题。</p>
</div><p>What does worry me about a lot of space stocks, though, is that their share prices may not reflect the risks of more serious issues with these businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我担心的是，许多太空股票的股价可能并未反映出这些企业更严重问题的风险。</p>
</div><p>Neither Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, nor Planet Labs are profitable currently, for example. All three are burning cash. Of the three, Rocket Lab looks the closest to being a viable business, with Wall Street analysts forecasting positive free cash flow next year, once the cost of developing the Neutron winds down, and revenue it produces ramps up. And Rocket Lab's first profits under generally accepted accounting principles should arrive in 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Rocket Lab、AST SpaceMobile 和 Planet Labs 目前都没有盈利。这三家公司都在烧钱。在这三家公司中，Rocket Lab 看起来最接近成为一个可行的企业，华尔街分析师预测一旦 Neutron 的开发成本降低，产生的收入增加，明年将实现正的自由现金流。而 Rocket Lab 在公认会计原则下的首次盈利预计将在 2027 年到来。</p>
</div><p>Analysts forecast both free cash flow and positive earnings for AST SpaceMobile in 2027 as well. But with the company still in start-up mode, with de minimis revenue, I wonder if they really have enough hard numbers to justify that prediction at present -- especially when you consider the company's massive cash requirements to finish building out and launching its satellite fleet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师也预测 AST SpaceMobile 在 2027 年将实现自由现金流和正收益。但由于该公司仍处于初创阶段，收入微乎其微，我怀疑他们目前是否真的有足够的硬数据来证明这一预测——尤其是考虑到该公司完成建设和发射其卫星群所需的巨额现金需求。</p>
</div><p>Planet Labs stock, meanwhile, looks arguably riskiest of all, with no analysts willing to go on record and predict a date for the company to turn profitable. Despite all these concerns, the stock is up 80% over the past year, Rocket Lab stock has gained 320%, and AST stock is up nearly 1,000%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Planet Labs 的股票看起来无疑是最具风险的，没有分析师愿意公开预测该公司何时能实现盈利。尽管有这些担忧，该股票在过去一年上涨了 80%，Rocket Lab 的股票上涨了 320%，而 AST 的股票几乎上涨了 1000%。</p>
</div><p>The fact that investors are having second thoughts about valuation today, and doing a bit of selling of these three very big winners, seems reasonable to me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者今天对估值产生第二次思考，并对这三只非常成功的股票进行了一些抛售，这在我看来是合理的。</p>
</div>

为什么今天太空股票陷入低迷