<p>周一股市大幅下跌。截至东部时间下午 3:10，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了 2.6%，有望创下今年最糟糕的一天，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的表现更差，下跌了 3.4%。更糟糕的是，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌近 5%，预计将创下自 2022 年 9 月以来的最大跌幅。</p>
<p>银行股的表现甚至比这些主要基准更糟糕。而且这不仅仅是大银行的问题：在整个金融服务行业，股票都遭受了重创。举几个例子，巨型银行 <strong>花旗</strong>(C -4.33%) 下跌约 6%；投资银行巨头 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong>(MS -6.37%) 下跌了 8%；而在线银行颠覆者 <strong>SoFi</strong>(SOFI -11.20%) 则暴跌约 12%。</p>
<h2>为什么银行股受到如此严重的打击？</h2>
<p>可以肯定的是，尽管今天的走势看起来令人恐惧，但这只是过去几周持续抛售的最新表现。自 2025 年 2 月中旬以来，花旗和高盛的股价均下跌了约 22%。自 1 月底报告财报以来，SoFi 的股价下跌了约 38%。</p>
<p>简而言之，衰退的恐惧和其他经济逆风导致投资者对银行股失去信心。</p>
<p>由于政府人员裁减、关税政策不确定以及最近经济数据低于预期，美国衰退的可能性急剧上升。</p>
<p>事实上，亚特兰大联邦储备银行现在预测，第一季度 GDP 将以年化 2.4% 的速度收缩，这将是自 2020 年第二季度 COVID-19 疫情几乎关闭美国经济以来最糟糕的经济增长。大多数经济学家将衰退定义为连续两个季度的负 GDP 增长，因此现在看起来比几个月前更有可能。</p>
<h2>银行与衰退</h2>
<p>衰退通常对银行不利，原因有几个。最明显的是，它们可能导致消费者对贷款的需求下降。但它们也可能导致贷款违约率上升，尤其是在个人贷款和信用卡方面，这两者都是无担保债务，而这正是 SoFi 和花旗的重点领域。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，经济不景气通常伴随的低利率可能会带来一些潜在的积极影响。这可以帮助降低银行的存款成本，并促进某些类型的贷款活动（例如，抵押贷款再融资）。但我们必须明确：在衰退中，坏处几乎肯定会超过好处，对银行业来说尤其如此。</p>
<p>在投资银行方面，尽管交易收入在动荡的市场环境中往往表现良好，但经济不景气也往往导致并购（M&amp;A）活动减少、首次公开募股（IPO）数量减少，以及公司对新债务的需求降低。</p>
<p>底线是，银行业是最具周期性的行业之一，这就是为什么衰退的恐惧会使这些股票特别波动。如果这些恐惧被证明是夸大的，这可能是一个买入机会。但如果全面衰退来临，预计未来会有更多的波动。</p>

SOFI

摩根士丹利

花旗

高盛

<p>银行股在周一经历了显著下跌，花旗下跌 6%，摩根士丹利下跌 8%，SoFi 暴跌 12%。更广泛的市场也遭受重创，道琼斯指数下跌 2.6%，标准普尔 500 指数下跌 3.4%。此次下跌归因于对经济衰退的担忧加剧，原因包括政府削减开支、不确定的关税政策以及令人失望的经济数据。亚特兰大联邦储备银行预测第一季度 GDP 将收缩 2.4%，这引发了人们对贷款需求和贷款违约增加的担忧，特别是在潜在的经济衰退中对银行业绩的影响</p>

<p>The stock market was down big on Monday. As of 3:10 p.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2.6% and was on pace for its worst day of the year, and the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> was doing even worse, down by 3.4%. Worse yet, the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by nearly 5% and was set to post its worst decline since September 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一股市大幅下跌。截至东部时间下午 3:10，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了 2.6%，有望创下今年最糟糕的一天，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的表现更差，下跌了 3.4%。更糟糕的是，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌近 5%，预计将创下自 2022 年 9 月以来的最大跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Bank stocks were doing even worse than these major benchmarks. And it wasn't just big banks: Across the financial-services industry, stocks were taking a big hit. To name a few examples, megabank <strong>Citigroup</strong>(C -4.33%) was down by about 6%; investment banking giant <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>(MS -6.37%) was lower by 8%; and online banking disruptor <strong>SoFi</strong>(SOFI -11.20%) plunged by about 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行股的表现甚至比这些主要基准更糟糕。而且这不仅仅是大银行的问题：在整个金融服务行业，股票都遭受了重创。举几个例子，巨型银行 <strong>花旗</strong>(C -4.33%) 下跌约 6%；投资银行巨头 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong>(MS -6.37%) 下跌了 8%；而在线银行颠覆者 <strong>SoFi</strong>(SOFI -11.20%) 则暴跌约 12%。</p>
</div><h2>Why are bank stocks getting hit so hard?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么银行股受到如此严重的打击？</h2>
</div><p>To be sure, while today's moves look scary, they are just the latest in a prolonged sell-off that has taken place over the past couple of weeks. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have both fallen by about 22% since their mid-February 2025 highs. SoFi has declined by about 38% since reporting earnings in late January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，尽管今天的走势看起来令人恐惧，但这只是过去几周持续抛售的最新表现。自 2025 年 2 月中旬以来，花旗和高盛的股价均下跌了约 22%。自 1 月底报告财报以来，SoFi 的股价下跌了约 38%。</p>
</div><p>The short explanation is that recession fears and other economic headwinds are causing investors to lose confidence in bank stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，衰退的恐惧和其他经济逆风导致投资者对银行股失去信心。</p>
</div><p>Between the numerous government personnel reductions, uncertain tariff policies, and recent weaker-than-expected economic data, the probability of a U.S. recession has increased sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于政府人员裁减、关税政策不确定以及最近经济数据低于预期，美国衰退的可能性急剧上升。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now forecasts that GDP will contract by an annualized rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, which would be the worst economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic nearly shut down the U.S. economy in the second quarter of 2020. Most economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, so it looks more likely than it was a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，亚特兰大联邦储备银行现在预测，第一季度 GDP 将以年化 2.4% 的速度收缩，这将是自 2020 年第二季度 COVID-19 疫情几乎关闭美国经济以来最糟糕的经济增长。大多数经济学家将衰退定义为连续两个季度的负 GDP 增长，因此现在看起来比几个月前更有可能。</p>
</div><h2>Banks and recessions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>银行与衰退</h2>
</div><p>Recessions are generally bad for banks for a few different reasons. Most obviously, they can cause consumer demand for loans to drop. But they can also cause loan default rates to spike higher, especially when it comes to personal loans and credit cards, both unsecured forms of debt, which are focus areas of SoFi and Citi, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衰退通常对银行不利，原因有几个。最明显的是，它们可能导致消费者对贷款的需求下降。但它们也可能导致贷款违约率上升，尤其是在个人贷款和信用卡方面，这两者都是无担保债务，而这正是 SoFi 和花旗的重点领域。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, there are some potential positive effects, such as lower interest rates that usually come with poor economic conditions. This can help lower banks' deposit costs and boost some types of lending activity (mortgage refinancing, for example). But let's be perfectly clear: In a recession, the bad would almost certainly outweigh the good for the banking industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，经济不景气通常伴随的低利率可能会带来一些潜在的积极影响。这可以帮助降低银行的存款成本，并促进某些类型的贷款活动（例如，抵押贷款再融资）。但我们必须明确：在衰退中，坏处几乎肯定会超过好处，对银行业来说尤其如此。</p>
</div><p>On the investment banking side, while trading revenue tends to do well in turbulent market environments, poor economic conditions also tend to lead to less merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) activity, fewer initial public offerings (IPOs), and less appetite from companies for new debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投资银行方面，尽管交易收入在动荡的市场环境中往往表现良好，但经济不景气也往往导致并购（M&amp;A）活动减少、首次公开募股（IPO）数量减少，以及公司对新债务的需求降低。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line is that banking is one of the most cyclical businesses, and that's why recession fears can make these stocks especially volatile. If the fears turn out to be overblown, this could be a buying opportunity. But if a full-blown recession hits, it would be fair to expect more volatility ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底线是，银行业是最具周期性的行业之一，这就是为什么衰退的恐惧会使这些股票特别波动。如果这些恐惧被证明是夸大的，这可能是一个买入机会。但如果全面衰退来临，预计未来会有更多的波动。</p>
</div>

Bank Stocks Plunged on Monday.  Here's Why Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi all Got Hit so Hard.

- 周一股市大幅下跌，道琼斯指数下跌 2.6%，标普 500 下跌 3.4%。  
- 银行股表现更差，花旗集团下跌约 6%，摩根士丹利下跌 8%。  
- 经济衰退担忧加剧，导致投资者对银行股信心下降。  

银行股在周一大幅下跌。这就是为什么花旗集团、高盛和 SoFi Tech 都受到严重打击的原因