<p>股市随着时间的推移而波动。这就是市场的运作方式。但正如牛市与熊市之间的摆动是可预测的，投资者所经历的情绪波动也是如此。现在，投资者显然在出售资产，但他们也在寻找新的资金去处。一个受益者是高收益的 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>(KHC 0.12%)。这是一个避风港的正确选择吗？</p>
<h2>婴儿与洗澡水</h2>
<p>当股市跌破关键指标时，投资者开始担忧。第一个重要的指标是所谓的 “修正”，这意味着一个指数——在这种情况下是 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>——从其高点下跌了 10%。修正并不罕见，但显然是进入熊市（下跌 20% 或更多）的第一站。因此，人们心中和脑海中的恐惧开始上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2NTkvMjNfMTFfMjgtYS1wZXJzb24tY292ZXJpbmctdGhlaXItZXllcy13aXRoLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1mYWxsaW5nLXN0b2NrLWdyYXBoLWluLWZyb250LW9mLXRoZW0tX21mLWRsb2FkZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwOTMwMDI3My0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2NTkvMjNfMTFfMjgtYS1wZXJzb24tY292ZXJpbmctdGhlaXItZXllcy13aXRoLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1mYWxsaW5nLXN0b2NrLWdyYXBoLWluLWZyb250LW9mLXRoZW0tX21mLWRsb2FkZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwOTMwMDI3My0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>这引发了两个非常具体的事件。首先，投资者开始出售资产，以保护自己免受潜在损失。通常，首先被抛售的股票是那些曾经备受喜爱的公司的股票。但这些抛售意味着投资者手中有现金，因此第二个事件是投资者寻找安全的投资避风港，以存放这些资金。在这方面有一些共同的线索，但这里重要的是消费品行业。</p>
<p>投资于消费品股票是明智的。这些公司生产人们定期购买的产品，无论世界发生什么。想想卫生纸、牙膏和食品。你可能会调整购买的品牌，但即使在严重的经济衰退中，你肯定会继续购买这些东西。卡夫亨氏是一家消费品巨头，凭借其约 5% 的高股息收益率，带来了丰厚的股息收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png"/></p>
<p>KHC 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>卡夫亨氏是避风港的正确选择吗？</h2>
<p>正如上面的图表所示，在过去一个月中，纳斯达克综合指数下跌了约 10%（截至本文撰写时），而卡夫亨氏的股价上涨了 10%。这意味着 20% 的超额收益！显然，投资者已经转向风险规避的心态。但问题是：你不应该无差别地出售，也不应该以这种方式购买。</p>
<p>卡夫亨氏的股息收益率约为 5%，而消费品行业的平均收益率约为 2.6%。它的收益率更高是有原因的。卡夫亨氏的业务表现并不好。这并不是一个新趋势——自从卡夫与亨氏几年前合并以来，公司一直面临逆风。</p>
<p>合并的最初目标是削减成本以提高盈利能力。但你只能削减成本到一定程度，然后就需要一个新计划。在管理层动荡之后，卡夫亨氏转变了方向，专注于其最大和最重要的品牌。这与 <strong>宝洁</strong> 重新走上增长轨道的计划相同。对卡夫亨氏来说，这似乎也是一条合理的前进道路。</p>
<p>唯一的问题是，卡夫亨氏应该花费所有时间和金钱支持的品牌表现并不好。在 2024 年第四季度，其 “加速” 品牌的有机销售下降了 5.2%。这紧随其后的是第三季度下降 4.5% 和第二季度下降 2.4%。2024 年第一季度同店销售增长了 0.5%。明显的趋势是表现变差，而不是变好。</p>
<p>给足够的时间，卡夫亨氏最终很可能会扭转业务，重新走上增长轨道。但现在，它显然并没有全面发力。仅仅因为它是一家食品制造商，这并不意味着它是一个安全的避风港。这是一个转型故事，这比大多数投资者应该追求的风险更高。</p>
<h2>还有其他选择可供选择</h2>
<p>如果你想在市场修正（或更糟糕的情况下）期间跳入消费品行业以保持安全，购买一个交易所交易基金（ETF），如 <strong>消费品精选行业 SPDR ETF</strong>，可能会更好。这样至少可以为你提供一个多样化的日常生活必需品公司的投资组合。如果你想挑选股票，考虑到卡夫亨氏的基本面疲弱，它可能不是最佳选择。也许像 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 或 <strong>百事可乐</strong> 这样的表现仍然强劲的 “股息之王” 会是更好的选择。</p>

卡夫亨氏

塔吉特

开市客

克罗格

<p>纳斯达克综合指数最近经历了 10% 的调整，促使投资者寻求现金的安全避风港。高收益的卡夫亨氏（KHC）股价上涨了 10%，表现优于该指数。然而，卡夫亨氏面临持续的业务挑战，主要品牌的有机销售正在下降。尽管其 5% 的股息收益率颇具吸引力，但公司正处于转型阶段，这使其成为一种高风险投资。对于消费品行业中更安全的选择，投资者可以考虑 ETF 或更稳定的公司，如可口可乐或百事可乐</p>

<p>Stock markets rise and fall over time. It's just how the markets work. But just as predictable as the pendulum swing from bull to bear (and vice versa) is, so too are the emotional swings that investors go through. Right now, investors are clearly selling assets, but they are also looking for a new home for the cash that's raised. One beneficiary has been high-yielding <strong>Kraft Heinz</strong>(KHC 0.12%). Is that the right place to run for cover?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市随着时间的推移而波动。这就是市场的运作方式。但正如牛市与熊市之间的摆动是可预测的，投资者所经历的情绪波动也是如此。现在，投资者显然在出售资产，但他们也在寻找新的资金去处。一个受益者是高收益的 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>(KHC 0.12%)。这是一个避风港的正确选择吗？</p>
</div><h2>The baby and the bathwater</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>婴儿与洗澡水</h2>
</div><p>When stock markets fall beyond key yardsticks, investors start to worry. The first big one is a so-called &#34;correction,&#34; which simply means that an index -- in this case, the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> -- has declined by 10% from its highs. Corrections aren't unusual at all, but they are clearly the first stop on the way to a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). Therefore, fear has started to rise in people's hearts and minds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当股市跌破关键指标时，投资者开始担忧。第一个重要的指标是所谓的 “修正”，这意味着一个指数——在这种情况下是 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>——从其高点下跌了 10%。修正并不罕见，但显然是进入熊市（下跌 20% 或更多）的第一站。因此，人们心中和脑海中的恐惧开始上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2NTkvMjNfMTFfMjgtYS1wZXJzb24tY292ZXJpbmctdGhlaXItZXllcy13aXRoLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1mYWxsaW5nLXN0b2NrLWdyYXBoLWluLWZyb250LW9mLXRoZW0tX21mLWRsb2FkZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwOTMwMDI3My0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F810659%2F23_11_28-a-person-covering-their-eyes-with-a-computer-image-of-a-falling-stock-graph-in-front-of-them-_mf-dloadgettyimages-1409300273-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>That sets off two very specific events. First, investors start to sell assets in an effort to protect themselves from potential losses. Often, the first stocks to go are the stocks of companies that had been the most adored. But those sales mean investors have cash, so the second event is investors looking for safe haven investments where they can stash that money. There are a few common threads on that front, but the one that's important here is the consumer staples sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这引发了两个非常具体的事件。首先，投资者开始出售资产，以保护自己免受潜在损失。通常，首先被抛售的股票是那些曾经备受喜爱的公司的股票。但这些抛售意味着投资者手中有现金，因此第二个事件是投资者寻找安全的投资避风港，以存放这些资金。在这方面有一些共同的线索，但这里重要的是消费品行业。</p>
</div><p>Hiding out in consumer staples stocks makes sense. These companies make products that people buy regularly, regardless of what is happening in the world. Think toilet paper, toothpaste, and food. You might adjust what brands you buy, but you are most certainly going to keep buying these things even in a deep recession. Kraft Heinz is a consumer staples giant, and it comes with a hefty dose of dividend income, thanks to its lofty 5% or so dividend yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资于消费品股票是明智的。这些公司生产人们定期购买的产品，无论世界发生什么。想想卫生纸、牙膏和食品。你可能会调整购买的品牌，但即使在严重的经济衰退中，你肯定会继续购买这些东西。卡夫亨氏是一家消费品巨头，凭借其约 5% 的高股息收益率，带来了丰厚的股息收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png"/></p>
<p>KHC data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KHC 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Is Kraft Heinz the right place to run for cover?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>卡夫亨氏是避风港的正确选择吗？</h2>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, over the past month, the Nasdaq Composite has fallen around 10% or so (as of this writing) while Kraft Heinz's stock price has risen 10%. That's 20% outperformance! Clearly, investors have shifted to a risk-off mentality. But here's the thing: You shouldn't sell indiscriminately, and you shouldn't buy that way, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如上面的图表所示，在过去一个月中，纳斯达克综合指数下跌了约 10%（截至本文撰写时），而卡夫亨氏的股价上涨了 10%。这意味着 20% 的超额收益！显然，投资者已经转向风险规避的心态。但问题是：你不应该无差别地出售，也不应该以这种方式购买。</p>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz's dividend yield is around 5% compared to the consumer staples average of roughly 2.6%. It has a higher yield for a reason. Kraft Heinz's business hasn't been performing all that well. This isn't a new trend -- the company has been facing headwinds since Kraft and Heinz tied the knot several years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡夫亨氏的股息收益率约为 5%，而消费品行业的平均收益率约为 2.6%。它的收益率更高是有原因的。卡夫亨氏的业务表现并不好。这并不是一个新趋势——自从卡夫与亨氏几年前合并以来，公司一直面临逆风。</p>
</div><p>The original goal of the merger was to cut costs to improve profitability. But you can only cut costs so far before you need a new plan. After a management shake-up, Kraft Heinz switched gears to focus on its largest and most important brands. That's the same plan that helped <strong>Procter &amp; Gamble</strong> get back on the growth path. It seems like a reasonable path forward for Kraft Heinz, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>合并的最初目标是削减成本以提高盈利能力。但你只能削减成本到一定程度，然后就需要一个新计划。在管理层动荡之后，卡夫亨氏转变了方向，专注于其最大和最重要的品牌。这与 <strong>宝洁</strong> 重新走上增长轨道的计划相同。对卡夫亨氏来说，这似乎也是一条合理的前进道路。</p>
</div><p>The only problem is that the brands Kraft Heinz is supposed to be spending all of its time and money supporting haven't been doing very well. In the fourth quarter of 2024, organic sales for its &#34;accelerate&#34; brands fell 5.2%. That follows a 4.5% drop in the third quarter and a 2.4% decline in the second quarter. Same-store sales rose 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024. The clear trend is worse performance, not better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唯一的问题是，卡夫亨氏应该花费所有时间和金钱支持的品牌表现并不好。在 2024 年第四季度，其 “加速” 品牌的有机销售下降了 5.2%。这紧随其后的是第三季度下降 4.5% 和第二季度下降 2.4%。2024 年第一季度同店销售增长了 0.5%。明显的趋势是表现变差，而不是变好。</p>
</div><p>Given enough time, it seems highly likely that Kraft Heinz will eventually turn its business around and get back on the growth path. But right now, it is simply not hitting on all cylinders. This is clearly not a safe haven just because it is a food maker. This is a turnaround story, which is a higher-risk approach than most investors should be pursuing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>给足够的时间，卡夫亨氏最终很可能会扭转业务，重新走上增长轨道。但现在，它显然并没有全面发力。仅仅因为它是一家食品制造商，这并不意味着它是一个安全的避风港。这是一个转型故事，这比大多数投资者应该追求的风险更高。</p>
</div><h2>There are other options to choose from</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>还有其他选择可供选择</h2>
</div><p>If you want to jump into the consumer staples sector in an effort to keep safe during a market correction (or worse), you would probably be better off buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF), like the <strong>Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF</strong>. That will at least provide you with a diversified portfolio of companies that make everyday life necessities. If you want to cherry-pick stocks, Kraft Heinz probably isn't the best option given its weak business fundamentals. Perhaps a still strongly performing Dividend King like <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> or <strong>PepsiCo</strong> would be a better choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想在市场修正（或更糟糕的情况下）期间跳入消费品行业以保持安全，购买一个交易所交易基金（ETF），如 <strong>消费品精选行业 SPDR ETF</strong>，可能会更好。这样至少可以为你提供一个多样化的日常生活必需品公司的投资组合。如果你想挑选股票，考虑到卡夫亨氏的基本面疲弱，它可能不是最佳选择。也许像 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 或 <strong>百事可乐</strong> 这样的表现仍然强劲的 “股息之王” 会是更好的选择。</p>
</div>

纳斯达克调整：这只高收益股息股票是避险的正确选择吗？